Sell Now if You Can
Y’all know I’m not prone to hyperbole when it comes to market analysis. So, when I say “sell now if you can,” I’m not exaggerating.
I’m tempted to do build one of those click bait lists, like “5 reasons why you should sell now.”
But, that’s about as much my style about as sporting a purple mohawks.
Without over-stating the issue, however, there are some well-considered reasons why this is a good time.
First, we’ve not seen a steep plunge in the Cromford Index since 2005, just before the Great Recession.
Have a look at this chart. It was created in 2018, so it does not show the current trend. But, the key thing to look at is that time in 2004-05 when the Cromford Index was tanking, but home prices were still going up.
And, it was starting to go back up in 2007, even while home prices were going down. Then down again in 2013.
The Index is the best predictor of market activity that I’ve ever seen.
Have a look at where we sit now.
What you are seeing here is inventory going up and prices stabilizing. Given low consumer confidence, raising interest rates and the role of faceless investors in the market, prices are more likely to go down next.
Second, sell now or chase prices downward.
Chasing prices downward happens when buyers back out or don’t even make offers because they think prices are doing down.
I’m not convinced that a recession is inevitable. But it almost does not matter if the public thinks it’s coming. Buyers are holding out and waiting. We are hearing more about sellers who have dropped their prices. Some are even beginning to chase the market downward, having priced too high when they listed.
The real estate market changes direction more akin to an aircraft carrier than a stock market. So, while the Cromford Index may tank, it will take a couple months for prices to flatten and drop. That’s your window to sell, because it takes at least 30 days to sell a home –even if you price wisely for the market and get a buyer right away.
And, don’t forget: we are probably going to see another interest rate increase soon.
Third, we don’t know how long this will last.
That same aircraft carrier analogy applies here. Look at that long-term graph again. After a market drop, it can take a while for the market to find equilibrium again.
So, if you don’t sell now and price aggressively you may be carrying the cost of that property for another two or three years.
Fourth, the market needs your property.
If you are holding an investment property, consider for a moment that we have dropping rates of home ownership for reasons I’ve covered here. There are a lot of families out there who are aching for the opportunity to build their own long-term wealth and stability through home ownership. That’s good for all of us.
Your property could be that hope for somebody.
Call us if you’d like to build a strategy at 602-456-9388.
