Anecdotally, I feel like I’m seeing more listings coming on as I’m writing this monthly market update, and as I was preparing a tour yesterday. In addition, people are speculating that more will come on as more people get vaccines. However the look-back over the last month from the Cromford Report indicates just the opposite.

Let’s check in with the analysts there for some highlights from their monthly market update, which came out on March 1. I encourage you to read this whole piece, as it covers a whole slew of market-wide issues and myths.

“In March 2020 we wrote that the lack of supply was making life extremely difficult for buyers. It is now down almost 60% since then. What phrase can we use to describe this – scorched earth?

The monthly sales count, pending listing counts and under contract counts are all higher than last year, but not by as much as last month. This confirms the downward trend in demand. Lower demand really does not make much difference when supply is this scarce. Even if demand dropped well below normal we would still have multiple offers for most listings.

Multiple offers are the mechanism that drives prices up. One offer per listing represents stability. No offers tends to drive prices down. We would need about 7 times the current supply to get back somewhere close to normality. (Emphasis added for my listing update.)

The full impact of the housing shortage is not being properly recognized, because many people incorrectly think the end of forbearance will bring a flood of distressed homes onto the market. We think this is very unlikely. While we can imagine a noticeable increase in supply taking place, it is very unlikely to reach the levels that would dramatically change the balance in the Greater Phoenix market. It is somewhat reminiscent of the “shadow inventory” theory of 2011 through 2013 which turned out to be a mirage, invented by a data analysis company that did not understand how to measure the foreclosure process properly. Their erroneous calculations were re-broadcast by the media and spread as if they were true. But it was all imaginary. There was no significant shadow inventory then and there is no huge wave of distressed homes waiting to hit the market now. Do not be taken in by these myths just because other people chose to believe them. Over the centuries many people have believed things that are now known to be false. It is still just as common today. In fact the internet and social media makes it even easier for falsehoods to become accepted as facts.

Many people also seem to have forgotten what really happened during the bursting of the housing bubble: The sequence is important.

1. The active listing supply increased dramatically between April 2005 and December 2006 due to over-building of new homes and the frantic speculative wave of 2004 quickly losing momentum
2. Prices started to fall from July 2006 onward due to supply becoming much stronger than demand
3. The fall in prices meant recent buyers had zero or negative equity from 2007 onwards, loosening their motivation to keep up their mortgage payments
4. Foreclosures started to be filed starting in 2007 against homes that were quickly abandoned due to the lack of equity
5. A huge wave of bank owned properties hit the market in 2008 and 2009, adding to the supply problem
6. The lack of equity meant many homes listed in 2008 through 2011 were short sales.
7. Investors pounced on the bank-owned homes and short sales from 2009 onwards, bringing the drop in prices to a complete halt by 2011

This is unlike the current situation. We have far too little supply, not far too much. Note that the excess supply in 2006 was the primary problem that burst the bubble. The foreclosures came later and were an effect, not a cause, of the bubble bursting.

This bears repeating – FORECLOSURES DID NOT CAUSE THE HOUSING CRASH – they were a consequence of the excess supply of 2006. Falling prices caused the foreclosures, not the other way round. It then became a negative feedback loop until prices fell low enough to attract speculators and investors back into the market in 2009. The housing crash was visible and inevitable by the fourth quarter of 2005, while foreclosure were still at normal levels.

In 2021, we are entering a period of extreme appreciation. We are measuring 23.1% using the monthly $/SF figure and this is quite mild compared with what we expect to see in 2 or 3 months time. The average price per square foot for closed listings rose almost 5% in just 4 weeks during February.

Dollar volume is at very high levels for the time of year, thanks to unit sales up 7.4% and pricing up 23.1% compared to a year ago, when the market was already at full steam ahead.

We expect to see dollar volume hit new records during the second quarter, along with all of the pricing metrics.”

Back to a note from me for this market update. I’ve added the image, below, of the long term perspective of the Cromford Index. Look at how much higher we are now than we were prior to the great recession. Cause for alarm? It’s hard to tell. At some point, buyers will stop trying and sellers will decide to list. It has to come back in to balance, but I doubt that means prices will drop any time soon.

If you want analysis outside of this monthly market update for your particular situation, give us a call at 602-456-9388.

I sometimes agree with Arizona Republic conservative columnist Bobb Robb. On the issue of the open primary model, I do not.

I got so fired up that I sent in a response. I know. That sounds like something somebody’s grandfather would do.

Anyway, I’m not sure if they will publish it, so I figured I’d share it.

Oh yeah. He’s wrong about open primaries and ranked choice voting. So there.

Republic columnist Robert Robb advocated for a “top-two” or “open” primary system of voting in his column on January 31st.

Unfortunately, the open primary system cannot single-handedly “cure the distortion of disproportionate influence” of the two-party system, as Robb hopes.

There are two ingredients that are necessary to find that cure: ranked choice voting, and an increased number of truly competitive legislative and congressional districts.

First, without a greater number of truly competitive congressional and legislative districts nothing really changes. A competitive district is one in which the party registration is within 5-6% of the two major parties where either party could win a seat in any given election.

24 out of 30 legislative districts in Arizona are widely dominated by one of the two political parties. Your vote does not count after the primary election.

Even with a open primary system, these districts would see no change.

The candidates would simply use their parties’ infrastructure and voter lists to shut out independent voices.

How do we know this? Just look at city council races. We all know the party registration of candidates for city council or mayor. We know that their political parties spend millions to get them elected, even if their party name is not on the ballot.

Plus, under open primary schemes, we would still have to pay for the primary and run-off elections.

Thus, the second ingredient necessary for the cure: ranked choice voting, or RCV.

RCV is a system that allows you to rank candidates in the order you prefer them.  It is used in 20 cities in the United States, and the states of Alaska and Maine. Alaska just passed a hybrid of ranked choice and open primary that Mr. Robb suggests because they understood that ranked choice is the key to that particular reform.

Notably, in a ranked choice race, the candidates hurt themselves if they attack other candidates. Candidates have to appeal to all voters and ask them for their second choice vote, even if they won’t give them their first choice vote.

Further, RCV is also known as an “instant runoff election” because it will decide the election in one round. This saves millions of taxpayer dollars and reduces the length of campaign season.

Mr. Robb’s hopes are laudable. But if he hopes to see a re-balancing of the American electoral system, the best way is through RCV and truly competitive districts.

You can learn more at Voter Choice Arizona. If you want to try RCV yourself, check out this website.

When the legislature years ago created a unifying framework for short-term rentals and the taxation thereof, many of us noted that we would certainly have to come back at some point to adjust the statute.

Unfortunately, the Governor and the Legislature have not done enough to protect neighbors from misuse by short-term renters.

As realtors who have helped people purchase homes to use a short-term rentals, we’ve been horrified by the misuse (as well as the damage they have done to market supply), and we applaud any efforts to balance the scales.

So, we share with you the following announcements from Neighbors Not Nightmares, an effort to improve the Arizona Revised Statute at the Legislature:

“What’s the big deal?” you ask?  Paradise Valley is the only police department we know of that tracks whether calls are about residences or short-term rentals.  In the first 6 months of 2020, 45% of their nuisance and noise calls were about STRs.  That’s 16 TIMES the frequency for residences!

The Neighbors Not Nightmares (NNN) team is asking everyone to START MAKING NOISE and let their AZ State Representatives know that they need to DO SOMETHING about the plague of whole-house short term rentals (“STRs”) taking over our single-family neighborhoods!  Remind your legislator that you chose to live in single-family zoned neighborhoods, not a commercial district!

Ask your legislator to support HB 2481 in its current form – This bill, introduced by Rep. John Kavanaugh, is similar to last year’s 1554 that was nearly passed before the pandemic shut the session down early. This time, however, it gives counties, cities, and towns more room to regulate short term rentals.

This bill is also supported by the League of Cities and Towns, Take Action Phoenix, Neighborhoods Connect, and many Arizona cities and towns: 

HB 2481 – Modifies the list of regulations that counties and municipalities are authorized to impose on vacation rentals or short-terms rentals to include requiring the owner of a vacation rental or short-term rental to license or register with the county or municipality, and restricting the occupancy of a vacation rental or short-term rental to the lesser of the occupancy limit of the county or municipality or 2 adults per bedroom plus 2 additional adults. Vacation rentals and short-term rentals cannot advertise to exceed the occupancy limit of the dwelling or for any nonresidential use. Counties and municipalities are authorized to impose a civil penalty for each day a property is in violation of this advertisement prohibition. An online lodging operator that falsifies information to an online lodging marketplace is guilty of a petty offense. A county or municipality cannot prohibit the operation of a vacation rental or short-term rental based solely on its status as a vacation rental or short-term rental if the owner of the vacation rental or short-term rental, as of May 1, 2021, has a valid transaction privilege tax license, and as of June 2, 2021, has provided the owner’s or the owner’s designee’s contact information to the county or municipality in which the vacation rental or short-term rental is located, if required by ordinance

*** The STR industry has their own legislation, SB 1379, which is progressing through the state senate. This bill removes any reference to residential enforcement and zoning.  Let your legislator know that you oppose SB1379!

You can find your legislator here.

Your life just got a little bit easier, especially if you like to do your part to recycle hazardous waste.

Very little of our over-all waste is actually recycled (24% in the US and about 8% world-wide), let alone specific things like lithium-ion batteries (less than 5% in the US).

Part of the problem is that city governments (and especially our backwards legislature) don’t fully fund a circular economy. I’ve covered this in the past.

Further, if you wanted to dispose of your waste properly, you had to take it on special days to a special site, usually nowhere near your home. You had to really want to do it and take up part of your day to make in happen -and that’s after you’ve sorted out exactly what you can recycle and how to store it for most of the year until you have time to go to one of their drop-off sites.

Well, the pandemic has been terrible for us, for sure. But one silver lining is that now the City of Phoenix has put together a system to pick up your hazardous waste from you. All you have to do is set up an appointment and set out your waste on that day in a safe, dry spot.

Have a look at this video that I made to see some tips on what to put aside for hazardous waste. Have a look at this City of Phoenix website for more information.

Vaccines are shooting in to arms all over the state, but we will continue to list socially-distanced events in February. We look forward to the day that we can see you all in person again. Until then, stay distanced and stay safe!

DTPHX’s List of Socially Distanced Events. We like to keep our list of events that speak to us, but here’s another site that you should put in your bookmarks. DTPHX is the marketing arm and hash tag of Downtown Phoenix Inc. I can’t tell you how often it’s updated, but have a look. We may draw from this list in the future.

Arizona Good Business Summit. Leave it to Local First Arizona to create a whole summit to help you grow your business during a pandemic. Okay. To be clear, this summit has been around for a while. But this year’s summit, in addition to being virtual, will touch on ways to grow through and out of our current crisis. I went last year and I was very impressed with the speakers. We are adding it to the list of events in February, although it happens in April. You’ll want to sign up soon, though.

Read Better Be Better is one of those organizations that we’ve tracked and donated to over the years. They have a unique method of having older kids read to younger kids. This helps solidifying skills with the older students (who are typically only a couple grades more advanced than the younger kids), and gives more positive encouragement to younger kids. As with many groups, RBBB has had to adapt to remote learning. They continue to support kids and continue to recruit in to the program. It’s worth a look. If you participate in our Charity Referral Network, this is a good group to consider donating to.

Phoenix Theatre’s Murder for Two is a socially distanced play in which two actors play all of the roles in a classic murder mystery. I miss the theater and definitely did not take enough advantage of it. I guess being cooped up in your house tends to teach you a thing or two about carpe diem. But since they’ve found a way to entertain us in these trying times, it’s worth looking at this as an option between February 17th and the 28th.

Music in the Garden Spring Concert Series. The Desert Botanical Gardens is opening up its spring series, going through March 26th. The series returns with a new way to enjoy lively musical acts with your special someone or closest friends. Listen to toe-tapping tunes while taking in breathtaking desert sunset views.

Mooby’s Pop-up. Yeah. I had to look this one up. And I thought I was so with it. I really have no excuse. This is a concept originated by Kevin Smith of Clerks fame. Basically, Smith has curated food experiences, all based on fake restaurants, as seen in movies. Mooby’s runs through February 14th at the Van Buren.

And, finally, here is our monthly little graphic, brought to us by our friends at Old Republic Title Company, with even more good things to do.

The February listing update is gonna be a little brief, folks.

Since the last newsletter, we listed and are now under contract on this 1,900sf duplex in the Garfield neighborhood. This home was listed at $350,000, and received multiple offers right away.

Naturally, we can’t reveal what the contract price was, but we can tell you our clients are very happy.

This home was listed as a renovation and investment opportunity in a neighborhood that is quickly undergoing a dramatic transformation.

As you drive around the neighborhood, you can see house after house being renovated and empty lots being filled.

On thing is clear: people continue to desire historic homes and they are willing to pay top dollar for them, as well as proximity to downtown.

We suspect that this will continue after the pandemic subsides, but we also believe that other neighborhoods with historic homes, which may not be officially designated as historic, will see just as many renovations.

If you want to think ahead and invest in the neighborhoods that are renovating next, contact us and we can give you our insights.

We expect to have more listings to share in our next listing update. Our clients continue to prepare beautiful properties, coming soon.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  This month, she tells us about this “Parade of Homes.” This is particularly timely, since many home tours would normally happen this month, but can’t due to the pandemic-which-shall-not-be-named.

A Parade of Homes

Fall brings cooler temperatures (we hope) and a plethora of home tours. Historic home tours are the most common seen across the valley today and they attract thousands of people.

Over sixty years ago, though, formalized historic districts did not exist in the valley and what was most often attracted people were the new homes in new subdivisions. The Phoenix Association of Home Builders even had a “March of the Models” during National Home Week in September 1955 this urge to see something new. Twenty-eight builders across the valley had models open for all to see. What a great gimmick!

One of the participants in that event had an even better idea. Why not concentrate on a select number of builders to construct models in a small area? And so it began.

C.R. Holmes, a contractor, had purchased 10-acres of orchard land on the east side of 7^th Street south of Northern Avenue. He had this small parcel subdivided into 30 lots on what amounted to two blocks that ended in a cul de sac in January 1955. This small subdivision would be called Royal Crest Villa and the street was Hayward Avenue.

Holmes sold 17 of those lots to other builders and took one for his construction firm. He challenged these builders to construct a home on their respective lots that would be valued at least between $14,000 and $20,000 or more. Once completed, then the Phoenix Association of Home Builders would sponsor a PARADE OF HOMES that would be open to the public.

This “tour” would not be one day. No, it would be two weeks, January 15-29, 1956.

Months before the big opening, the Arizona Republic began to feature each of the homes and builders in the Sunday “Sun Living” section. The articles provided specs, a rendering, plus the floor plan. As the date drew closer, the sponsors thoroughly covered all aspects of who and how many might come. Free parking was arranged for. Children’s activities would be provided in a playground area. And the open hours would be 10am to 10pm.

Local furniture stores and decorators joined to artfully stage each home. Booklets featuring all the homes were printed that provided all information for the customer to take home. In this first parade, the booklet even included four conceptual drawings.

The event was an utter success. One home sold before the event opened to the public and Holmes sold the remaining 12 lots in the subdivision to Modern Builders. The event was repeated in 1957 and then ceased. As the promotional material claimed, the Parade of Homes was “an unparalleled opportunity to see the giant-forward strides made by the building industry.”

Donna Reiner is the-author of 3 books on Phoenix history.

Captions for pictures:

1. Cover for 1957 Parade of Homes (private collection of John Jacquemart)
2. Ad in January 22, 1956 “Sun Living” section of Arizona Republic (sec.5: page 8)
3. People enjoying touring these new homes.

This February update is a bit redundant, isn’t it?

Well, not the February update, itself. I should clarify. But isn’t it getting old to hear that we STILL don’t have enough inventory?

The take-away:

• If you want to sell, do it! You will sell quickly at top dollar, even if you don’t renovate.
  
• If you are buying, expect multiple offers. But also, don’t expect prices do come down any time soon.

Below are some excerpts from the Cromford Report, real estate market update analyst gurus. (In case you are wondering, this is a special service for realtors and we use this to give our clients an advantage in the market.)

“…the ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2021 compared with February 1, 2020 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings: 5,180 versus 11,974 last year – down 56.7% – and down 14.5% from 6,055 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,070 versus 5,969 last year – up 18.4% – and up 15.2% from 6,135 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $217.59 versus $182.18 last year – up 19.4% – and up 2.9% from $211.50 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $339,000 versus $289,900 last year – up 16.9% – and up 2.1% from $332,000 last month

January is usually a very good month for new listings and overall supply tends to be stronger at the beginning of February than it was at the turn of the year.

However 2021 has been completely different. New listings arrived in the weakest flow we have ever recorded and although demand subsided a bit, it was more than strong enough to soak up almost everything sellers could offer. Instead of rising, supply collapsed another 14.5% during January.

When supply is this low, it starts to drag demand numbers down with it. Sales volumes are limited by the number of homes for sale. Although they are still much higher than January 2020, sales counts and under contract counts are not growing as fast as normal. This is probably due to a combination of factors: higher interest rates, lack of supply and affordability concerns.

Prices rose by almost 3% over the last month, so in theory demand should decline as prices increase. We will see how true that turns out to be as prices are set for extremely high rises over the next several months. The annual appreciation rate has already surpassed 19% and could easily reach 30% by the time we are well into the second quarter.

There is currently no indication that supply trends will improve and at the moment it looks like supply will drop further over the next 2 months. We would not be surprised to see demand continue to trend lower, but this will have little effect on prices. We already have far more buyers than the market can support. Our best guess is that the average price per sq. ft. will continue to rise at about 2% to 3% per month for the next several months.

If you need help navigating this market, call us at 602-456-9388.

Who knew that we’d still need to stay socially distant this month, way back when this all started? In light of that, here is short a curated list of some socially-distanced events in January that you might find useful.

Local First’s Scale UP cohort. SCALE UP stands for Sustainable Communities Accessing Lending and Expertise Upon Performance. It is a program that offers a comprehensive seven-week workshop series for locally-owned and operated independent businesses in Arizona. Sponsored by the State of Arizona, SCALE UP cohorts in 2020 are virtual and offered to businesses statewide. Each cohort offers the unique opportunity for businesses to go from education and collaboration to planning, financing, benchmarking and implementation — all in one accessible package.  A cohort of 10-15 businesses will participate in 1-2 hour workshops weekly on Tuesdays at 6 pm. Cohort 3 will begin on Tuesday, January 12th and go until Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021. Sign up at this link.

Urban Farm is on Rosie on the House. In the Rosie on the House radio show, there is a dedicated hour for questions and answers about growing food in the local desert. On the fourth Saturday of each month, Farmer Greg will talk about all aspects of gardening and urban farming in the Arizona climates. Learn more here.

Learn about Land Trusts. Local First Arizona his hosting a webinar with Liz Petterson, Executive Director of the Arizona Land & Water Trust, to learn how land trusts function and how they assist in keeping open space open. You’ll hear how they work with landowners, help develop local and community conservation plans and how they protect desert rivers and streams. This webinar is an educational initiative of the Coalition for Farmland Preservation, a program dedicated to preserving farmland in Maricopa County and beyond. It is free to attend and open to all. More here.

Dog days at the Botanical Gardens. Early risers are invited to bring their whole pack to stroll the garden’s trails on Saturday mornings. You and your pup will have a tail-wagging good time exploring all the beauty and sniffs of the garden. The Garden Shop welcomes dogs during your visit and the Patio Café will open at 8 a.m. offering a light menu. See more here.

Ansel Adams at the Phoenix Art Museum. This display explores how the 20th-century’s foremost American photographer often created multiple interpretations of a single image to express his creative vision. Located in Norton Photography Gallery. This recurs daily at 10am from January 11th through June 6th. More here.

Annie Water Solo Exhibition. Until January 10th you can still catch “Thoughts in Passing” showcasing the works of artist Annie Waters at FOUND:RE. Through her art, Waters invites viewers to observe the cycle of life through the lens of botanical studies paired with various portraits of loved ones, acquaintances, and imagined historical figures. See more here.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. This month, she tells us how the decision was made to line Central Ave with palm trees.

We use her services when we list properties of historic significance to help us tell the stories behind the homes.

We are happy that Donna is allowing us to re-publish some of her articles on a monthly basis. If you or your business ever needs a historian, let Donna know at laydeescholar “at” hotmail.com.

If one were able to safely stand in the middle of the Central Avenue and McDowell Road intersection and look north, two distinct characteristics would stand out. One, the street is straight, long and multi-laned. Two, uniform trees line both sides at least as far as the eye can discern. These elements help define a boulevard streetscape.

As early as 1895, Phoenicians planned to have trees line this section of Central Avenue. Originally ash trees were selected for their ability to grow quickly and provide a shady canopy. This concept blended in with the Garden City and the City Beautiful Movements which highly influenced Phoenix in the 1920s, but by then, the trees were different.

Dwight B. Heard and his partners can be credited for the change in tree type, for when the Los Olivos subdivision began circa 1906, they decided that stately palms trees would be planted on both sides of Central from McDowell Road to Encanto Boulevard. For those who might be curious, they are the Washingtona filifera, or California fan palm which is native to the Southwest.

Over the years, other developers continued the practice of planting palms to Camelback Road, but only in sections. So, while the image of Central Avenue has for years been with towering palms, what may be most interesting is they keep moving. What? Yes! Every time Central Avenue has been widened, the trees have been removed and transplanted. We’re lucky that can be done with palms much easier than with other types of trees.

In 1948, Central Avenue was widened from 39’ to 64” (four lanes and two parking strips). The palms were carefully removed, temporarily stored, and then replanted. In late 1951, a zoning case began which would change the zoning along Central Avenue from McDowell to Earll from residential (apartments) to commercial. For a variety of reasons, this case was eventually withdrawn, but it did raise the hackles of a number of people and some concerns of how to make accommodations to preserve the line of palm trees.

Phoenicians were protective of these palm trees even then. There was even some talk and action to create a “Wilshire Boulevard” feel along Central from Thomas Road north prior to the completion of Park Central Mall in 1956. Gruen Associates filed a report in 1989 suggesting that this boulevard image along Central Avenue should go at least to Camelback Road.

When the Light Rail project got closer to actually beginning, again the palms created a “problem.” Most people loudly objected to their destruction and/or removal. Move them, but replant them along Central! After all, this was now an historic streetscape even if it did not have the official designation.

Donna Reiner is the co-author of three books on Phoenix history.