It’s gonna be a shortage for a while, although things seem to be getting better as more people throw listings on the market and demand is softening. So, for now, I’m still gonna call it the July Shortage Update. Here’s what the Cromford Report analysts are seeing this month:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 5,699 versus 8,788 last year – down 35.2% – but up 15.9% from 4,917 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 9,783 versus 14,279 last year – down 31.5% – but up 4.5% compared with 9,361 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $397,000 versus $305,000 last year – up 30.2% – and up 1.8% from $390,000 last month

“Supply is now on a clear upward trend, growing almost 16% from last month, though it is still down over 35% from this time last year and a very long way below normal. This upward trend is thanks to a strong flow of new listings and a decline in the rate of listings going under contract.

Demand looks strong when we look at the closed sales numbers, up 5% from last year and 5.6% higher than last month. However June 2021 contained 22 working days, 10% more than May 2021, so the number of closings per day was actually down 4% compared with last month. Demand looks very weak when we look at the listings under contract, which is the forward-looking element of demand. This count is down over 15% compared with this time last year and down almost 8% from last month. This is a clear signal that the rapid rise in prices is having the expected dampening effect on demand.

We expect sales rates to slow in the second half of 2021. We forecast that prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace than during the first half. These means that dollar volume will remain very high compared with historical numbers.

The CMI looks likely to fall well below 400, but the rate of decline will depend very much on the rate of arrival of new listings. The first several days of the July shortage are of little use as a guide because of Independence Day, but we should have a clearer picture of supply patterns by the middle of July.

We anticipate a growing divergence between the supply patterns of 2021 and 2005, since there were many thousands of empty homes held by speculators in 2005 which were listing for sale during the third quarter of 2005. We see very few of these speculative empty homes in 2021. In July 2005, we got 12,580 new listings across Greater Phoenix, far above the monthly rate we are seeing in 2021. There have been 58,109 new listings across Greater Phoenix during the first 6 months of the year.”

Anecdotally, we are seeing some folks listing above market, hoping that they can grab some extra cash. We think this strategy can backfire even in this July shortage. While the market is hot it is also very fickle. When we have seen people list too far above market, they don’t get the feeding frenzy that people expect to see right now and then their property becomes stale very quickly. In other words, it is better to list where you are likely to get multiple offers and competition than list too high and people think there is some reason the property did not sell in the first week.

NOTE: The Cromford Index now below 400 since the first time last year. Watch that to continue to drop! See below. Now is the time to list.

Call us if you’d like to strategize your market entry at 602-456-9388.

There are so many interesting reads and valuable videos out there that speak to issues beyond daily headlines. I figured you might enjoy some curated links that pertain to our Arizona Life.

Close Down City-Owned Golf Courses — I posted this video on Facebook after I read this article in the Republic about how golf course owners are pushing back against the governor’s negotiated deal to reduce water use across the state in the face of a historic drought and shrinking water supplies. It inspired me to issue a call that the City of Phoenix get out of the golf course business. That’s controversial opinion. But, when you consider that each 18-hole golf course uses 330,000 gallons of water per day and the city owns 5 of them, it’s time to re-think what we are doing. What do you think?

This Plant Could Be the Key to Arizona’s Future — Not many people think about water in AZ, especially when it comes to how the crops that we have planted for a century have drained out our aquifer. Alfalfa and cotton use around 30 inches of water to grow in a state that gets about 5 inches of water per year. Get the background in this article, which details how federal policies have encourage these wasteful crops. But it was good news to learn about Guayule, a plant that uses 30%-40% less water than alfalfa and cotton and which is used to make car tires. We need to move quickly to switch to more desert-friendly plants like this.

20 Years of Dreaming — It’s been 20 years since early versions of the Dream Act were first introduced. That’s a long time, with little improvement in the quest for a path to citizenship for about 8 million people. According to Gallup about 86% of Arizonans support a path to citizenship. I was interested to learn about Aliento, a group in AZ that uses Art and community organizing to deal with the drama and stress of this on-going stalemate. It is impressive to see how hard people have worked to keep communities together, despite efforts to divide and vilify them.

Just Transition in Navajo and Hopi Lands — I’ve written before about Just Transition and the importance of helping repair the damage done to Navajo and Hopi (and other non-tribal rural communities) by coal mining and burning. This video really captures what has happened to the communities. Imagine that you have a beautiful home next to a stream. Your parents and their parents owned that home. You love that home. Now imagine watching the water in that stream disappear over just a few years. What would you do. How would you feel? That is what happened to our fellow Arizonans. And not enough people know about it.

Phoenix Needs Your Tree Donation — Planting trees and re-thinking how we use farmland are critical changes that can help us re-capture carbon in the earth. Cities are waking up to this as part of their Climate Action Plans, after a century of removing or ignoring shade trees. Read and comment on the Phoenix Climate Action Plan here. The city has a 2010 strategy to reach 25% shade by 2030. They are far from that. Think about those massive parking lots without shade trees the next time you go to the store. Knowing that they are behind schedule, they are now asking for residents to donate trees to be planted.

Is Your Gas Stove Killing You? — For the longest time, I thought that gas was more environmentally friendly than electric, when it comes to heating water, your home and your stove. That might have been the case when most of our electricity came from coal fire power plants. But, now that those are closing down and more renewables are coming on the system, we can do those things more cleanly with electricity. But, I’ve also learned that methane gas, which the fossil fuel industry calls “natural gas” for marketing reason, is a significant source of pollution in the home. Here’s a funny take on the issue. For my part, I’m looking at getting rid of my big gas oven and replacing it with an induction stove.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  This month, Donna tells us about some of the distinct mid-century modern high rise condos that started popping up downtown and uptown in Phoenix in the 1960’s.

It was the early 1960s in Phoenix when two apartment buildings, both designed by the same architectural firm, became reality.

Phoenix Towers, opening in 1957, was the first high rise residential building (fourteen stories) in Phoenix and built outside of downtown. The lack of additional high-rise residential buildings in Phoenix for the next five years or so appears to stem from politics and apparent disinterest in high rise apartments by Phoenicians.

Chopas and Starkovich, a Phoenix firm, was commissioned to design the Embassy Square Apartments for Green Valley Investments, Inc., and the Monarch Apartments for R. C. Crabbe. They set to work to create two distinctive buildings.

The Embassy Square is an eleven-story structure on the northeast corner of 4^th Avenue and McKinley Street. A conceptual drawing was printed in the Arizona Republic in July 1962, but it was not until November 1963, that ground was broken for this complex. Whether it was height issues that slowed the process, all of the Embassy Square’s neighbors at the time were no more than two-stories high, is not clear. Or it could have been financing problems.

Nevertheless, opening in September 1964, the 80 apartments, most were one-bedroom, came furnished or unfurnished and one could rent by the day, week, or month. Imagine, ads indicate that it was possible to have hotel service for your apartment including maid service for a mere $12.50 a day in 1965! Every apartment had a balcony and the building also had three penthouses. But the most unusual feature was the pool/recreation area construction on the third floor over the main entrance.

The Monarch Apartments now known as the Olympus, on the northwest corner of Maryland Avenue and Central Avenue, were listed as condominiums. This three-building complex ranged in height from two-stories to four-stories.

Breaking ground in August 1963, the Monarch Apartments, so named as R.C. Crabbe was the owner of Monarch Tile Company, consisted of 36 luxury apartments. One ad claimed “The Monarch was not created for temporary living…but for those few who demand quality…and wish to live at an address of distinction permanently.” Like the Embassy Square, every unit had a balcony, there was a pool, and the complex also boasted having four large penthouses on the top of the two three-story sections.

The Regency on Central Avenue and East Hoover was the “last” of the residential high-rises in the 1960s. Recessions, building busts, and a continued lack of interest in this type of living created a lull in Phoenix residential high-rise construction until the 1990s, and now we all know that a large construction crane especially downtown probably means another residential tower.

Even though most of you probably have not heard of Robert Starkovich, he does have an unusual claim to local fame. He was the associate architect with Petroff & Jones out of New York City in the design of BIG SURF.

As I was putting together the list of events this month, I was thinking that I’d love to share some of the more interesting things I’ve read, heard or viewed this month.

Hydro-pocalypse. One of the authors of the 1980 groundwater management act is telling us that we are very far from where we need to be to live in water balance in Arizona.If we don’t change course, AZ is heading for disaster. But there is a solution, if we act now. I summarize the issue in my short Facebook video and the AZ Central is worth a read.

Established Climate Science. People often argue that climate science is unproven because it’s new. This amazing article from the Daily Sun in Flagstaff details how long we’ve known about the science that underlies our understanding of what human activity is doing to our planet, and what we need to do to repair it.

Tree Equity. One of the things we can do, among many others, is plant more trees. But we need to understand the importance of equity in this and many actions we take on climate. Wouldn’t you know it? It turns out that even tree planting in most American cities has been unequal historically. The nice thing is that it can be easily remedied. I know that Phoenix is working toward that.

Forest Restoration Good News. It’s not all doom and gloom. A recent report from the Northern Arizona University demonstrates that the benefits of investing in forest heath (aka, science-based thinning and clearing) have a much longer and more profound return on investment than we originally thought. Lesson? The state of Arizona should invest heavily in forest health. It will preserve our natural wonders, cut down on forest fires, create jobs and preserve water.

Exxon: The Road Not Taken. Many of us have claimed for a long time that large oil companies took steps to hinder wise policy to fight climate change, even though they knew it was a problem.

This new article from Inside Climate News uses primary sources (including internal company files never before seen, interviews with former company employees, and other evidence) to tell a story of a company that went from identify the problem to covering it up. Riveting reading.

More and more things are opening up in Phoenix and we curate a list of June events for you.

It’s exciting. It’s odd too, isn’t it? I find myself walking around with my mask, constantly putting in on and taking it off. It’s a strange state of flux. Some establishments want them on and some don’t. I try to keep mine on, just to be safe. But then often find myself forgetting to take it with me.

Well, be safe, no matter how you are adapting. Only 50% of the population is vaccinated and I think we need to get to 80% to reach herd immunity.

Enjoy your June events, and please send us suggestions for July. We’d love to hear from you.

Arizona History Happy Hour with Marshall Shore. Grab a beverage and get ready for some fun!

Marshall Shore, Arizona’s Hip Historian, brings you a weekly happy hour (with cocktail recipe) to enjoy interesting tidbits and curiosities from Arizona’s past. He will feature trivia, music history, and little Arizona. Free via Facebook.

Behind the Scenes Science – Camp Innovation at the Arizona Science Center, June 14th. Each 5-day camp session introduces kids to STEM and builds skills for youth through high-energy challenges, building, and design opportunities, and concept exploration. Who’s ready for an exclusive exploration of the Center like you’ve never seen before? During this weeklong camp, step behind the curtain and discover the secrets of your favorite exhibits, learn how the planetarium works and so much more. BTS camp is sure to inspire, educate and engage your curious mind through hands-on science. $295

Pay What You Wish Wednesdays at the Phoenix Art Museum. Phoenix Art Museum offers voluntary-donation hours for general admission and reduced rates to view special-engagement exhibitions. Consider making a donation to support your Museum and these free-access times for our community. 3:00 – 7:00 PM

Water Harvesting Summit with UrbanFarm.org. You can harvest enough rain water every year in Arizona to care for most of your gardening or urban farming needs, believe it or not. I do some of it, and I wish I had more water capacity. I could definitely us it! Join Greg Peterson and the Urban Farm team to learn how you can do it.

Wine Seance at the Farish House, June 17th. Farish House is going to host casual monthly “Wine Seances” where someone from the industry will join you at table, sample 4-5 wines and paired appetizers, and you’ll just sip, laugh and chat for a minute together. Then, they may progress on to Prosecco Spritzes, dinner or desserts, or, ahem, more wine. $25. Editor’s note: I really thought this was a seance, I was down for it. So, congrats to them for a great hook. Might still do this, even without the ghosts.

Daddy Long Legs at Phoenix Theatre Company on June 23rd. A heartwarming Cinderella story about a witty young woman and her mysterious benefactor, this award-winning off-Broadway hit musical offers gorgeous, soaring melodies. It follows Jerusha Abbott, who has grown up in an orphanage but is sent to college by a mysterious benefactor so she may learn to be a writer. The benefactor requires just one thing – that she write to him monthly, even though he will not respond. Her letters to him paint a moving portrait of the development of her mind and spirit, and she emerges as a fiercely independent, intelligent woman, who is destined to find love where she least expects it. $64 – $94.

I’m still gonna call the market update a “June shortage update.” I think it’s going to be a shortage for a while, so maybe this will be the new normal and I’ll get tired of calling it a shortage update.

But for now, my friends, our situation is only marginally better. We’ve gone from about 600 listings in Phoenix to about 700 since last month. Maybe we will still be talking about a “June shortage” in June of 2022. I hope not.

Here’s what the folks at the Cromford Report have to say about it.

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for June 1, 2021 compared with June 1, 2020 the whole county:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,917 versus 11,917 last year – down 68.7% – and down 3.2% from 5,080 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,873 versus 7,224 last year – up 9.0% – and up 0.6% from 7,829 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,317 versus 12,478 last year – down 1.3% – but up 1.1% from 12,187 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,692 versus 7,045 last year – up 37.6% – but down 5.0% from 10,204 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $248.37 versus $179.79 last year – up 38.1% – and up 2.0% from $243.39 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $390,000 versus $293,000 last year – up 33.1% – and up 4.6% from $373,000 last month

“We note that the number of active listings is slightly higher than last month. That is entirely because June 1 fell on a Tuesday while May 1 fell on a Saturday. Saturdays tends to have much higher counts because of all the new listings activated on Thursday and Friday. In contrast, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have the lowest counts every week. If we compare the same day of the week, the number of active listings is up from last month by about 7%.”

“Supply is definitely rising, but not at a rate to help buyers very much, or to raise an alarm. It is rising because new listings are coming along at a faster rate than normal. However most of them are getting offers in the first week and they do not last very long. The market remains very hot even though it has cooled since March.”

“The demand numbers are moderating, with monthly sales down 5% compared with last month. However listings under contract are up slightly which means the downward trend in demand has stalled for now.”

“The rate of change in both supply and demand are both now moderate, but the rate of change for prices remains very high. We are seeing appreciation rates of 38% if you use price per sq. ft. or 33% if you use monthly medians. Both of these are flattering because part of the rise is due to high end homes taking a larger share of the market than normal for June. But however you measure them, home prices are at nose-bleed levels and will continue to rise while supply remains dramatically below normal. It is 76% below normal at the moment.”

“The period since June 2020 has been a painful 12 months for buyers and many are likely to be feeling bruised and beaten up. It would not be surprising if demand weakened further because of this, but withdrawing from the market is unlikely to be wise from a financial perspective. Prices still have a quite a lot of upward momentum and mortgage rates could easily move higher than today. Local buyers need to remember that to a buyer from California or Washington, Phoenix still looks like amazingly good value for money, even after another 20% price hike.”

“And what is your alternative – rents continue to climb at a steep rate and are unlikely to stop rising. At least if you buy a pricey home today you will benefit from the price growth tomorrow in the form of home equity. None of your rent payment will do that.”

Not much I can add than that final thought to the June Shortage Update. We’ve had clients exit the market and I’m sad to say that things will only be higher when they come back in about a year to look again. It reminds me of people back in 2010 exiting the market because they thought it was too high. They’d be sitting on about 40% free equity right now had they bought.

Whether you are buying or selling, call us at 602-456-9388 and we can help you build a strategy.

Our June listings, if this market is any indication, will not be active for much of June. We have two properties that are affordable as starter homes.

As usual, keep an eye on our live listings page to see all updates.

The first of our June listings is 805 S Sycamore, Unit 114 in Mesa. It is difficult to find any properties under $300,000 in this market, so this is a great opportunity as a starter home at $249,900. It is a 2br/2ba, 941sf condo built in 2001.

Unlike many properties built in recent years, this home has its own garage. The community has a pool and well maintained grounds.

The property is very close to Mesa Community College, Banner Desert Medical Center, shopping, entertainment, as well as easy access to SR 60 and the loop 101.

The second of our June listings is 3035 E John Cabot Dr in north Phoenix. This 3br/2ba, 1,477sf home is listed now at $385,000.

With 7.6 kW of solar panels on the roof and a shady back yard, you will ride out the heat of the summer with ease. No solar lease. No solar loan. This solar system is ready to go and your electric bills will be low, low, low.

The kitchen and living room areas are open and well-lit, with a fireplace. There is plenty of storage in the garage. The property has convenient access to SR-51 and lots of shopping in the mile radius. Paradise Valley Community College and Paradise Valley Park are strolling distance.

If you have specific questions about the properties, please contact us at 602-456-9388.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  This month, Donna tells us about the lesser-known Monroe Street preserved home, the Steinegger Lodging House.

Two unique buildings from the late 19^th century remain downtown within blocks of each other on East Monroe Street. One is the Rosson House built in 1895 and the other is the Steinegger Lodging House/Golden West Hotel built in 1889.

Newcomers to Phoenix created a “demand for affordable, temporary housing” as Phoenix rapidly developed in the late 1880s. The Steinegger Lodging House, one option meeting that demand, was the creation of Alexander Steinegger, an entrepreneurial immigrant who arrived in Phoenix c.1870.

Sometime around 1896, the Steinegger changed its name to the Alamo House. We don’t know why, but it could have been as a result of its “Mission-style parapet.” Frequent name changes for this property occurred and in 1908, it was called The Francis and offered furnished rooms.

More people came to Phoenix increasing the need for additional temporary housing after the turn of the century. Steinegger responded in mid-1911 by expanding the capacity of The Francis. The new “modern” portion had sixteen rooms; some were suites and some had private baths. It also had two public restrooms for the guests without facilities. The new portion even included a “summer dormitory on the roof.” With a new front came a new name: The St. Francis.

During the 1920s, the Southern Pacific changed its route to come through Phoenix. A new and larger train station was constructed; new hotels like the San Carlos, the Westward Ho, and the Arizona Biltmore were built to serve the growing tourism business. And the St. Francis Hotel changed its name again to the Golden West Hotel in late 1929.

The Golden West Hotel gained a new “neighbor” with the construction of the Professional Building in 1931. In 1934, the west side of the original building became the Golden West Buffet. In c. mid-1930s, the front façade of the Golden West Hotel was “modernized.” A new entrance for the buffet was installed. The front porch was removed, the front brick façade of the second floor was stuccoed, and black Carrera glass was applied around the lobby door and the central lobby window. Ceramic tile was added “to the façade of the bar portion of the front façade.”

Claude Jones transformed the café into a cocktail lounge in 1946 calling it the Jones Cocktail Lounge. Later it became Kissel’s Cocktail in 1963 and then Newman’s Lounge in 1976. Newman’s Lounge remained in business until October 2005.

Unfortunately, the Golden West Hotel gradually began to deteriorate as it could not compete with the surrounding larger hotels without major renovations. By the 1980s, The Golden West Hotel was a transient establishment. The former twenty-six rooms “had been divided into 109 sleeping areas.” It continued to operate as an SRO until 2004. Not long after that, the Steinegger descendants sold the building.

Sixteen years later, the oldest hotel building in Phoenix stood empty with a “false” facing which helped to protect the original brick building. But time ran out for its continued existence and it is no more.

As Arizona heats up and Covid numbers are coming down, people want to get out. I’ve curated a list of things that I think you’ll like. But, please, please get a vaccine if you’ve not yet. It’s easy, proven safe and it protects not only you, but others around you. Have fun out there!

Jack and the Beanstalk at the Great Arizona Puppet Theater. May 8th. The classic show, Jack and the Beanstalk, is premiering at Drive-In Theatre.

This wonderful tale is told with hand puppets, unique scenery, a growing beanstalk, and their very own Giant. Order breakfast delivered directly to your vehicle from Fair Trade Cafe. $40 per carload.

Sidewalk Saturdays at the Churchill. This happens weekly at 901 N 1st St. A weekly celebration of local artisans, connection, and community on the sidewalks in the heart of downtown Phoenix’s Roosevelt Row Arts District.

The nice thing is that you can go from the Phoenix Farmer’s Market at central and Filmore to this event in just a quick stroll. The weather’s perfect for it!

Poolside Yoga at the Found:re, May 16th. A 45 minute flow yoga session taught by CorePower instructor, Christina Mierzejewski.

After class, enjoy brunch from MATCH Market & Bar. Each session includes poolside yoga, an adult beverage and meal. $39.

Quality Balls; The David Steinberg Story – Documentary Film Series. May 21st. David Steinberg, the son of a Winnipeg rabbi rises to become one of Canada’s greatest comedy exports.

At the height of his popularity, David Steinberg was one of the world’s best known stand-up comics, and he later directed some of the most successful situation comedies of the last 20 years.

UrbanFarm.org is hosting a Summer Shade Tree Class, May 11th. Greg and Janis will host these monthly Tree Care Zoom Chats focusing on fruit trees with seasonal tips and timely refreshers on caring for your fruit trees. This monthly class will take place on the 2nd Tuesday of the month, at 6pm AZ time.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  In honor of what we all hope is the light at the end of the tunnel of this pandemic, Donna talks about the last major contagion and how her family dealt with it.

Oh, and please get the vaccine if you’ve not yet. It’s proven safe, it protects you and it protects others from this modern contagion.

Someday our younger family members may ask what was it like during the Covid-19 pandemic. And the stories will begin describing social distancing, chatting on Zoom, cooking, reading, doing school online, and working from home. Some of these things may create puzzled looks.

And some of us were quarantined many years ago.

It was the summer of 1951. I was nearly 4 ½ and my sister Ruth was just 8. I suspect that it was a rather “normal” carefree summer of playing outdoors, listening to the radio, and looking at books (we had no TV). Father went off to work and Mother took care of the three of us (we have a younger sister who was 2 ½ at the time.

And then…, thanks to the “generosity” of our next-door neighbor and babysitter, my sisters and I were exposed to the measles. Like Covid-19, measles is caused by a virus and transmitted in a similar fashion. But for some reason, only my older sister and I came down with them about the same time while my younger sister did not. So, what was the big deal?

For whatever reason, I had no recollection that our mother was pregnant that summer. Ruth knew she was going to have a baby, so it wasn’t a surprise when she went to the hospital. I don’t even remember her “disappearing,” but she was certainly gone.

Both of us were quite sick running high temperatures. The whole house was kept dark because the light hurt our eyes which must have been hard since it was July. Dad went to work every day and some couple took care of us. They must have cooked, did laundry, and cleaned the house since Dad wouldn’t know how to do those things!! Besides the traditional things of keeping up the house, this couple entertained us too keeping our youngest sister away from the “contagion” room. I distinctly remember cutting out the Sunday funnies and putting them into a scrapbook. That kept me occupied for hours or so I remember.

We would get special treats like popsicles or ice cream which was quite delightful as I’m not sure Mother would have done that. We probably didn’t stay inside for a long period of time once we felt better, but to a 4 ½ year old, being cooped up inside for any length of time seemed like an eternity.

Mom had to stay in the hospital a long time to protect the baby. When she did come home, we couldn’t touch her (yes, it was another girl).

That’s when Ruth and I decided to name her. I wanted to call her “Ancy.” Ruth thought that was okay, since she wanted to call her Nancy Ann after her Story Book dolls! Fortunately, our parents approved, and that’s what she’s been called ever since.

The memories of a 4 ½ year old are often selective and in this case, mine are totally related to that period of quarantine with a little bit of help from my older sister.

Donna Reiner is the co-author of three books on Phoenix history.