When I say “a balanced market”, you might think of a tranquil lake with slight ripples splashed with moonlight.

Or, maybe not. I mean, that was really specific

But, what we mean by “balanced market” has more to do with the buyers’ and sellers’ relative advantage.

Where things stand now, the Cromford Index is hovering right around 100 –the point at which neither seller nor buyer have an advantage. If it continues to drop below 100, watch for price reductions in order to sell a home.

In other words, if you are thinking of selling, do so now or wait for another 18 months to a year for the market to recover.

If you are a buyer, you now have so many more options for homes. You are not in a market where you can offer 10% less and the seller will accept your offer with a smile and a home-made banana nut muffin.

But, seriously, have a look at this graphic snapshot of July. The number of active listings is up 159% from this month last year — the majority of this climb in just the last few months.

Here’s what the data nerds over at the Cromford Report have to say about where we are:

For Buyers

“Welcome to a balanced market, how quickly the tables have turned! While seller markets are ideal for the not-so-perfect home, balanced markets are ideal for the not-so-perfect buyer.

This means that buyers who have been recently rejected due to lower down payments, non-conventional financing, or need for closing cost assistance will find sellers are now willing to work with them in this new environment.”

For Sellers

“The proverbial ‘Dump Your Junk’ season is over, that loving phrase the industry uses when demand is significantly higher than supply and even the smelliest dilapidated property gets multiple offers over asking price. That is no longer the case as of this writing. Get ready for longer marketing times, multiple price reductions, Realtor® tours, price opinions, staging, repairs, seller-paid closing costs and price negotiations. The extreme seller market is over.

It’s no surprise that the market has been shifting since February, with the primary influence being large mortgage rate increases. However, over the past 6 weeks mortgage rates have been particularly volatile, fluctuating from 5.1% to 5.8% within 3 weeks only to drop to 5.3% over the next 2 weeks, and then back up to 5.8% a week later. History tells us that buyers do not like sharp, rapid fluctuations in mortgage rates. It causes buying activity to freeze until a level of stability and certainty can be achieved. This market is no different, contract activity has dropped 28% in the last 6 weeks. The number of listings under contract at this time of year should be around 10,000, putting today’s count of 8,680 well below normal.”

In just the last week I’ve planted 24 trees, simply by switching my search engine to Ecosia. Seems crazy, but you can plant trees while you search the web to see what your high school sweetheart is up to or when you search for the menu at the new swanky restaurant downtown.

And, folks. We need to plant a lot of trees if we are going to mitigate climate change. Like billions and billions.

It is not the only solution. We all can do more to buy less junk, support policies that encourage green energy or choose energy efficiency.

After all, we’ve de-forested a third of the planet over the last 100 years, and more than that in the United States, alone.

We need the help of those luscious green carbon munchers to soaking up the extra CO2 we humans have let in to the atmosphere.

This short video will explain how it works. In a nutshell, Ecosia takes the pennies earned from millions of web searches, which would otherwise go to web marketing companies, and they purchase & plant trees with partners all over the world.

You load the app in to your browser and it tracks it for you. They have a counter under the search bar that tracks the millions of trees they’ve already planted.

The key in a plan like this, of course, is to make certain the trees are planted in areas where they will actually grow and, hopefully, contribute to stabilizing the soil and supporting reforestation. The Ecosia team has relationships all over the world to make certain this is done, and done right.

I heard about it and figured, “Heck. I’ve run out of room in my yard for trees. Might as well.”

Please join me on July 13th to meet the RCV team — the amazing people behind an effort to bring Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) to Arizona.

Please RSVP at this link. It is being held at The Grand in downtown Phoenix. If you’ve never been to this bar/coffee shop, you are missing out. The owner used to be a set designer for Andy Warhol, and it shows in the beautifully eccentric choices he makes.

You know me. I’m always talking about reforms that could make our great country even more responsive to its people, and that truly can help heal our divides.

This is a non-partisan. In fact, it would help increase voices of those who are not part of any political party.

If you want to know more about RCV, have a look at this blog post or even this one that I did some time ago.

There won’t be any big push for money. Just a little.

The real purpose here is to build our friends and supporters –you know, like any good movement should.

You will not only learn how RCV works, but this group’s plans to bring RCV to Arizona. We are working one small town at a time to build the support, from the ground up.

I hope to see you there!

The heat is cranking up and you are thinking of where you might escape. Before you go, have a look at our August Coming Soon. Be sure to check out our listings at this link.

Coming soon in August: Shady Condos in the Nonpareil Condo Community

We are preparing two possible listings in this well-known and regarded mid-century condo complex at 11th Ave and Osborn.

One is a 850sf, 1br/1ba condo in the shady atrium of the condo complex.

The owner is currently preparing it for sale and we expect it to be ready in mid-July.

Price is to be determined, but we are confident it will sell quickly, as there are few nice properties under $300,000 in greater Central Phoenix.

The second is a 1,108sf, 2br/1.75 ba property that over-looks the expansive grass and tree-filled grounds. We expect this property to be at or below $300,000.

Its balcony is shaded most of the year by a beautiful old tree and the interior was updated when the owners purchased the unit not too long ago.

We don’t usually alert the public until the listings are about to come on the market. (Don’t want to jinx it, you know.) But we are excited about these.

First, we’ve sold several properties in this community. I even used to own one there.

Second, there is such a shortage of affordable properties in Phoenix, that we are happy to help some deserving buyer find a place of their own.

Back on the Market. 18427 N 36th Ln, Glendale 85308. 2br/2ba, 1,283sf. $375,000

Our sellers on this property are responding to shifts in the market. They updated the flooring and paint, and it is back on the market.

It’s difficult to find a home under $400,000 these days. So, this is an affordable option in this challenging market.

It boasts a large master suite with sliding doors leading to the large covered patio. The patio will make a shady space for relaxing or gardening.

The yard is beautifully landscaped, irrigated, and includes a sliding RV gate for your fun toys. The two-car attached garage includes a plethora of additional storage cabinets, and a workbench to fix the aforementioned toys.

The home includes a newer roof and security shutters. It is close enough to the I-17 and the loop 101 to be convenient, but far enough away so that you can enjoy a quiet neighborhood.

Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the many bits of evidence of the various FDR public works efforts, like the WPA, hidden around the city in plain view.

During the Great Depression, FDR along with Congress created a number of programs to help put the unemployed back to work. Arizona was one of those states which received the benefits from many of those programs. You may be familiar with some of these programs or at least their products: Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC); Works Progress Administration (WPA); WPA Arts Project (WRAAP); Farm Security Administration (FSA); and, Public Works Administration (PWA). And all these initials can get confusing.

I suspect that the most familiar agency and its works is the WPA. Who hasn’t seen sidewalks marked WPA and a date while walking in Phoenix or a lot of other communities across the country? You can also find them on the curbs. Be sure to look the next time you are walking in say Coronado Historic District or along east Van Buren.

But the WPA also was instrumental in development of some of the infrastructure of our parks. For instances, the WPA built the bathhouse for the pool at Coronado Park and the bandshell and the clubhouse at Encanto Park. Upgrades were also made to Grant Park and Eastlake Park.

Perhaps South Mountain Park, though, received the most attention in the area of parks. The CCC went into action building roads and trails, ramadas, lookout shelters, and erosion control structures. The next time you visit the park, notice the rock entrance station. And did you know that there was a CCC campsite in the park?

Government buildings arose too. Which ones? The 1938 addition to the Arizona Capitol, the Post Office at Central and Fillmore, the grandstand at the State Fairgrounds, and the old adobe National Guard Arsenal in Papago Park. Many of these buildings also sport some beautiful art work. Then there were schools such as Phoenix College buildings on the new campus and North High School to meet the needs of the exploding enrollment at Phoenix Union High School, and improvements for Alhambra School.

But there are two projects that most Phoenicians do not know: Phoenix Homesteads and Camelback Farms. Only one still exists.

Phoenix Homesteads, sponsored by the Resettlement Administration, was a type of public housing on lots which were large enough that they allowed the residents to have gardens and small farm animals that could feed the residents making them self-sufficient. Today Phoenix Homesteads, a unique historic district with 45 homes between 26^th – 28^th streets and Thomas and Osborn roads, appears as an oasis in our desert environment.

About a half-mile north of Phoenix Homesteads was Camelback Farms along Indian School Road and 27^th Street. The 84-acre property sponsored by the Farm Security Administration (FSA) was operated as a co-op and training facility with 35 homes and a community center. There were several other such FSA co-ops in the valley. Camelback Farms had a dairy. But all things come to an end. In April 1945, the acreage went up for sale and today it is covered with houses.

The following link will help you discover other places throughout the state.

Y’all know I’m not prone to hyperbole when it comes to market analysis. So, when I say “sell now if you can,” I’m not exaggerating.

I’m tempted to do build one of those click bait lists, like “5 reasons why you should sell now.”

But, that’s about as much my style about as sporting a purple mohawks.

Without over-stating the issue, however, there are some well-considered reasons why this is a good time.

First, we’ve not seen a steep plunge in the Cromford Index since 2005, just before the Great Recession.

Have a look at this chart. It was created in 2018, so it does not show the current trend. But, the key thing to look at is that time in 2004-05 when the Cromford Index was tanking, but home prices were still going up.

And, it was starting to go back up in 2007, even while home prices were going down. Then down again in 2013.

The Index is the best predictor of market activity that I’ve ever seen.

Have a look at where we sit now.

What you are seeing here is inventory going up and prices stabilizing. Given low consumer confidence, raising interest rates and the role of faceless investors in the market, prices are more likely to go down next.

Second, sell now or chase prices downward.

Chasing prices downward happens when buyers back out or don’t even make offers because they think prices are doing down.

I’m not convinced that a recession is inevitable. But it almost does not matter if the public thinks it’s coming. Buyers are holding out and waiting. We are hearing more about sellers who have dropped their prices. Some are even beginning to chase the market downward, having priced too high when they listed.

The real estate market changes direction more akin to an aircraft carrier than a stock market. So, while the Cromford Index may tank, it will take a couple months for prices to flatten and drop. That’s your window to sell, because it takes at least 30 days to sell a home –even if you price wisely for the market and get a buyer right away.

And, don’t forget: we are probably going to see another interest rate increase soon.

Third, we don’t know how long this will last.

That same aircraft carrier analogy applies here. Look at that long-term graph again. After a market drop, it can take a while for the market to find equilibrium again.

So, if you don’t sell now and price aggressively you may be carrying the cost of that property for another two or three years.

Fourth, the market needs your property.

If you are holding an investment property, consider for a moment that we have dropping rates of home ownership for reasons I’ve covered here. There are a lot of families out there who are aching for the opportunity to build their own long-term wealth and stability through home ownership. That’s good for all of us.

Your property could be that hope for somebody.

Call us if you’d like to build a strategy at 602-456-9388.

Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the Willo Neighborhood’s Fairhope School.

I’m particularly interested in this one, as I listed this property years after it became a single family home.

Decades ago, school generally started after Labor Day whether you were enrolled in a public or private school. Today, for you or your children attending school in the valley, August and sometimes July is definitely that time of year when the school bell has rung.

Several years ago, a realtor acquaintance asked me about the history of one private school. It turned out to be a merry journey because of its early beginnings, many moves, and various names. If it still existed, it would have just celebrated its 100^th anniversary.

Fairhope School, the most common name used, was founded in Phoenix on the ideas of Mrs. Marietta Johnson. But this was not her first venture into inspiring the creation of a school based on her ideas. NO, Marietta Johnson hailed from Fairhope, Alabama (hence the name) and advocated a particular philosophy about the structure of schooling which she called Organic Education. It was a progressive method of teaching at the time which sought to encourage the curiosity of students through doing.

Starting small in 1920, the co-ed Fairhope School in Phoenix initially met in the gymnasium on the property of H.L Chalmers at 230 East McDowell Road. Mrs. Chalmers is the person who pushed to establish such a private school in Phoenix so it seemed natural to offer the family’s property as the school site.

By the start of the school year in 1925, students were enrolled from kindergarten through the first year of high school. The large Chalmers property (a half block at the time) provided plenty of room for the students to exercise, play, and explore.

But gradually the enrollment grew until 60 students at the start of the 1930/31 school year were definitely going to need a larger and more permanent home.

Plans were drawn for a new L-shaped school building by H.H. Green, a local architect, that could accommodate up to 100 students. The site for the new school was on 3^rd and Virginia Avenues. The students vacated the Chalmers site and moved to temporary quarters on the Akers property on the northwest corner of Portland Street and North Central Avenue. And on October 13, 1930, the students and the school moved to its first permanent location.

The Great Depression appears to have caused problems for Fairhope School in Phoenix for it became Miss Preston’s School in 1933. Ads do mention that it was formerly the Fairhope School. After Mrs. Marietta Johnson’s passing in late 1938, even her school in Fairhope, Alabama closed.

However, that school building on 3^rd and Virginia Avenues still exists. Various commercial enterprises occupied the site over the years including the home/office of Neal Roberts who was involved in the Don Boles murder trials. Converted into apartments, it later became the Yum Yum Tree Guest House and Resort.

Definitely this building has some stories to tell. Today it is a private residence which has been added onto, but still retains some of the features of that original school when you compare the drawing to a contemporary picture.

You are back from Memorial Day weekend and are looking for some June events and good reads to help you transition slowly in to the actual work you are being asked to do again.

I see you.

We’ve been there.

You can’t just jump directly in to reading that dry report that’s been sitting in your inbox for a week.

We’ve got your back. Read, plan, procrastinate.

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An Electrifying Proposition. Solar United Neighbors came up with a creative way to lower the cost of solar panels and batteries. They build a co-op of home owners who get together and negotiate as a group for lower prices. They are taking that to the next step with a webinar on “electrification“, or ridding your home of dirty fossil fuel, such as methane gas. “Electrification is yet another way to divest ourselves from world energy markets. The path to true energy independence starts with solar panels, but ends with full electrification powered by renewable energy. Joel Rosenberg from the Special Projects team at Rewiring America will explain why this matters and what steps you can take to electrify everything in your home.

Common Ground on Guns. Surprised to see guns mentioned in a real estate newsletter? Well, you know me. I’m a policy dork who is always looking for solutions to problems that plague our neighborhoods. But I’m also an American who sees that there is room for common ground on guns. And this article points to where that common ground could be –treating guns like we treat cars will preserve gun rights, but also increase safety. (The article is behind a paywall. But, you may be able to access a few free articles. And, of course, good journalism costs money.)

First Friday at the Heard Museum. When people visiting Phoenix ask me what to see, I almost always point them to the Heard Museum. But many people who have been here for years have either never been or might like to re-visit. First Friday is great for that, since it is free on that day. Dedicated to the sensitive and accurate portrayal of Native arts and cultures, the Heard is an institution that successfully combines the personal stories of American Indians with the beauty of art. M-Sat 9:30am-5pm; Sun 11am-5pm.

Basement Tapes. In memory Maurice ‘VEX’ Brown… Basement Tapes is a mix show featuring the best in independent music from the soulful side of the spectrum. Come out to be immersed in African American Culture and hear classic & contemporary HIP HOP, SOUL, FUNK, AFROBEAT, R&B, rare groove & dusty beats straight from the crates. Hosted by DJ Rikkie Tee + MyGodComplex + featuring guest artists & selectors! Free in the music hall.

Girls In STEM. Explore the ‘E’ in STEM with an engaging half-day #GirlsInSTEM event, Tech N’ Tinker: Inspiring Tomorrow’s Engineers! Using the six-step engineering design process, participants will build, test and tinker their way through engaging engineering challenges. Presented in a trial-and-error-positive environment, participants will learn the benefits of “failing” in order to create a stronger end-result. With the help and mentorship of #WomenInEngineering from WiMCO, these #GirlsInSTEM are sure to leave inspired to take on the world of engineering. $5.

Ideation Part 2 – Thursday Gathering, June 9th. Meaningful ideas and big changes are sparked when serendipitous connection collides with intention.

Every week at their flagship program, the Thursday Gathering, they connect creators, entrepreneurs, investors, coworkers, students and visionaries to build strong, inclusive and equitable innovation ecosystem. Free.

Building Community with Entrepreneurs. Join Local First Arizona and State Forty Eight Foundation on June 8th for a collaborative evening to hear stories, inspiration and ideas for building a better Arizona. Featuring 4 entrepreneurs and business owners sharing their unique journeys and experiences. Admission is free. Small appetizers will be served and an open bar available.

Something Rotten! Not content to let William Shakespeare get all the attention, the conniving but clueless Bottom brothers hatch a plan to cook up the next big stage hit. After an ill-advised trip to see Nostradamus’s food-obsessed nephew, they risk everything to produce what they believe will be the show of the future: the musical! Combining everything you love about Broadway—big dance numbers, bold costumes, and eye-rolling off-stage antics! Through June 18th.

Carnival of Illusion presents SKULLDUGGERY! STEP RIGHT UP as Carnival of Illusion shares a Magical Night Out of devious deceptions and lovely lies with SKULLDUGGERY! This top-rated show is “Revitalizing Magic” by blending old-world prestidigitation with all the charm of a Vaudeville-inspired roadshow. Travel up-close with the national recipients for “Excellence in Magic” and catch a lively slice of magical history! 

Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the The Rose of Coronado.

Surrounded by towering Palm trees, you might drive by and miss this charming two-story brick apartment building in historic Coronado neighborhood.

Coronado is one of the larger early Phoenix historic districts. This district encompasses a number of small subdivision plats. Many of these smaller subdivisions were originally portions of Syndicate Place, Homewood Tract, and Ranchitos Bonitos subdivisions as people would buy just a portion and then subdivide it. Los Olivos Heights, the subdivision where these apartments are located, was directly across 7th Street from Los Olivos, a higher end subdivision developed by Dwight B. Heard.

Los Olivos Heights consists of 188 lots covering 8 blocks for a total of 44 acres. The subdivision opened the morning of February 14, 1912, the day Arizona became a state. J.W. Stacy and Oscar Irvin, local real estate developers, had Phoenix Title and Trust subdivide this acreage which originally belonged to J. A. R. Irvine. Stacy and Irvin actually sold three lots that first day of sales (perhaps a few people were more interested in real estate than the statehood festivities).

Sylvan C. Ganz, a bachelor and a member of an early Phoenix family, purchased this corner lot in June 1916. Based on a 1914 promotional ad for the Los Olivos Heights Subdivision, he may have purchased other lots. After all, this was considered to be an up and coming area to live. However, Ganz merely held onto the property until he sold it to Josephine Nova in March 1920 for $550. Josephine and her husband didn’t build on the lot either. But they did not sell it for seven years.

Rose Bachowetz bought the lot in April 1927. Shortly thereafter, Rose and her husband, Wladimir, applied for a building permit for this empty corner lot. Wladimir, or Walter as he was often called, was the contractor. A 1938 ad lists some of the apartment complex’s amenities. Being within one block of the Brill Streetcar line made it ideal for the workers who presumably occupied the units.

The brick vernacular building began as 8 apartments and was considered to be quite modern. It was certainly different from its neighbors. The exterior brick work even demonstrates some creative detail on the part of the builder and we have no idea where Bachowetz got his building experience.

As the property was very near Emerson Elementary School, it presumably was appropriate to call the place The Emerson Apartments. At least that was the name used into the 1960s.

Did the Rose and Walter Bachowetz build other things that you should know about? Actually they did construct some small homes, but nothing as large as this small apartment complex. Whether those structures still exist is another issue. Like Rose and Walter Bachowetz, they have disappeared from Phoenix records.

The current owner, in tribute to Rose Bachowetz, renamed the apartments The Rose of Coronado. As Shakespeare wrote in “Romeo and Juliet,” “A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Coronado neighborhood has this Rose nestled amongst majestic palms which provide a small haven in the bustling “hood.”

Our June listings include one price drop and an affordable, move-in ready Glendale home. Watch our listings page for more information and photos on both.

New This Week. 18427 N 36th Ln, Glendale 85308. 2br/2ba, 1,283sf. $395,000

It’s difficult to find a home under $400,000 these days. This seller is happy to present an affordable option in this challenging market.

This home is move-in ready, with newer kitchen appliances and quartz counter tops. It boasts a large master suite with sliding doors leading to the large covered patio. The patio will make a shady space for relaxing or gardening.

The yard is beautifully landscaped, irrigated, and includes a sliding RV gate for your fun toys. The two-car attached garage includes a plethora of additional storage cabinets, and a workbench to fix the aforementioned toys.

The home includes a newer roof and security shutters. It is close enough to the I-17 and the loop 101 to be convenient, but far enough away so that you can enjoy a quiet neighborhood.

1802 N 7th Ave, Phoenix. 3br/2.75ba, 2,275sq on a 10,400sf lot. $950,000

The sellers dropped the price on this huge, beautiful, total remodel.

The home has massive accordion glass patio doors, a luxurious living room and expansive kitchen with lots of storage and counter space.

GE Cafe Line white & copper appliances bring together the kitchen.

The owners have put extensive attention and expense in every detail of this renovation, down to quality doors, flooring and accessories. Don’t miss the separate laundry room and kitchen pantry.

The bedrooms are roomy and the bathrooms sparkle. The front door has been moved to Coronado for more privacy and the garage has been vastly improved.

Many visitors at the Encanto/Palmcroft Historic neighborhood home tour commented on how refreshingly quiet the home is.