For our November listing update, we have nothing!

Okay, that’s a fib.

We never have nothing. We are working with a couple sellers who will have their properties ready for sale in the next couple months.

We also sold that efficiency condo at the Embassy Condominiums, the one with the great views. We also helped our other clients sell their townhome and find the right new home, which they will begin major work on soon. They will be expanding it to make their dream home.

But, between nervousness over the election and the extreme shortage of listings, we are taking a little breath in the November update.

I want to take this pause to re-assure you that the market stable, if priced high. This is not the market of 2006, when people were getting zero-down liar loans. Certainly we don’t know what is coming around the corner, but with all the election drang and sturm, it can feel like nothing will ever be normal again.

But the thing to remember about the real estate market is that it changes course more like an aircraft carrier, than like a schooner. If you are out looking for a home, every indication we have is that prices will continue to climb. This is due to the fact that so many homes have been taken out of circulation by companies and individuals buying them up as rental and as AirBnB, plus the lack of new in-fill developments where people want to live.

That dynamic is not going to change any time soon. The number of interested buyers would have to drop by over 50% in order to see any change in prices. And, if the pandemic didn’t do that, there is not much else that would.

If you are thinking of buying a property, you can feel comfortable moving forward. If you need to sell, don’t be afraid. You will definitely do well.

If you are thinking of renovating and selling your property, call us at 602-456-9388. We can help you plan to stand out in this market.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. This month, she tells us about the Avery House, a distinct bungalow that has its origins in citrus.

We use her services when we list properties of historic significance to help us tell the stories behind the homes.

We are happy that Donna is allowing us to re-publish some of her articles on a monthly basis. If you or your business ever needs a historian, let Donna know at laydeescholar “at” hotmail.com.

On 44^th Street just north of Indian School Road stands a Craftsman Bungalow amidst much younger mid-century modern homes. Newcomers might think that it’s a new build in the style of; but while it looks rather spiffy with its new paint and landscaping, the house will actually be 100 years old next year!

How that house came to be at that location is a bit of early Phoenix history with citrus overtones.

Back in January of 1910, Frank and Emma Avery arrived in Phoenix. They came in part to visit friends from Spearfish, North Dakota, and in part to determine if this would be a good environment for Emma and her respiratory issues. Frank had been ranching in Wyoming, but his interested was peaked by the acres and acres of citrus growing in the east Phoenix Orange Belt especially near the Arizona Canal.

Avery’s good friend Henry Leppla must have sold Frank on trying his hand at raising citrus since the Averys quickly became the proud owners of 10 acres complete with a small wood-frame house. Frank and Emma headed back to Wyoming in June and it did not take them long to decide that a permanent move to Phoenix was going to happen by October 1^st.

Citrus can have its ups and downs depending on the weather and rain, but this property was ideal. Avery even discovered a “new” orange variety on his property and propagated it. That orange ripened early and was quite sweet. Thus, it became called the Early Avery.

But Avery was not merely content with raising citrus. No, he became involved with the Arizona Citrus Growers Association and eventually served as president of the association for 9 years. During that time, this co-operative rapidly expanded as the amount of citrus grown in the greater Phoenix area increased and the demand for Arizona “sweets” in other parts of the country exponentially grew.

Curious about the house? His first home on the property burned and the Averys rebuilt. Avery had the current house built in 1920. One story, it has a full basement with a fireplace connecting to the living room fireplace and a cistern. It was a comfortable place for the Averys who had no children, but did have live-in help.

Today when you drive by you will not see any citrus. What happened? By 1949, the 10 acres were bare. By 1963, the house was surrounded by subdivisions of new homes. An office now, the Avery House stands as a testament to times gone by.

In this November Market Update, we are continuing to monitor a dramatically lower number of listing as compared to this time in 2019. This data comes to you from The Cromford Report and covers all areas and all types of homes.

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 8,682 versus 14,525 last year – down 40.2% – but up 7.4% from 8,101 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 13,901 versus 18,322 last year – down 24.1% – but up 4.5% compared with 13,305 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,862 versus 5,919 last year – up 32.8% – but down 1.7% from 7,999 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 13,081 versus 9,716 last year – up 34.6% – but down 0.9% from 13,203 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,992 versus 8,037 last year – up 20.5% – and up 3.6% from 9,641 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $207.37 versus $174.14 last year – up 19.1% – and up 4.3% from $198.84 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $332,000 versus $285,000 last year – up 16.5% – and up 1.6% from $326,800 last month

The flow of new listings remained strong until late October but has started to fade noticeably over the last weeks. Since we are already very short of supply, this does not bode well for buyers who are likely to be fighting each other over a dwindling list of homes for sale during the last 2 months of the year. With demand at a very high level, especially for the normally quiet fourth quarter, the market is even more out of balance than it was last month.

Closed sales were over 20% higher than in 2019 during October. This is even more remarkable given that in 2019 October had 23 working days, 1 more than in 2020. With the average price per square foot up over 19% from last year, the dollar volume is exceptionally high at $4,272 million, up from $2,786 million last year. And last year we thought we had a strong market. We are running out of superlatives to describe the state of the current market.

Average and median prices are running away skywards, but some of this is fueled by a sales mix which increasingly favors upscale properties. During October we saw 37 closed listings over $3 million. This is not only the highest total for any October in history, it is the highest total for any month in history. The average for all months since 2001 is 9 and in October 2019 we counted 10.

The size of the market below $300,000 is shrinking fast, constrained by lack of supply and by the fact that last year’s home at $270,000 is now priced well over $300,000. However any home priced under $300,000 is likely to see hordes of buyers.

Is there any sign of the upward surge in pricing losing pace as we enter the November market? In a word – No.

At this time last year we had no idea of the impending pandemic, but unless something similarly surprising happens in the next few months, the housing market in Greater Phoenix is unlikely to stop rising.

We can help you build a strategy to buy or sell a home, even in this crazy market. We have the experience to help guide you. Call us at 602-456-9388.

In light of the pandemic, and the lack of group activities or events, here are some links that we hope will be helpful to you as we struggle through this most unusual summer.

If you missed our last list, see here.

Stay safe. Stay healthy!

1) Voting. Well, if you did not expect me to add early voting to my list of October News and Events, you don’t know me too well. It is too late for you to register to vote for the election if you did not do so by midnight on October 5th. But, if you have, put these date in ink on your calendar. Also, have a look at my analysis of the facts and fictions around voting fraud.

2) Affordable Loans. My friend and former chairman of the Phoenix Black Chamber of Commerce, Kerwin Brown, has built a new model to help people with low-dollar loans, without the predatory loan-sharking of the payday loan and auto title loan industry. Further still, he has designed a system through with the borrower will likely come out the other end of the process with a better understanding of personal finance than when they came in. The UPI Loan Fund matches borrowers with mentors in order to get a loan. That personal touch helps create the foundation for successful lending.

3) Sustainability Business Education. Local First Arizona does a better job of representing the local businesses of Arizona than any chamber of commerce I’ve ever seen. Here’s another way they do. They created the Scale Up business education program, which teaches small business owners about sustainability topics in the context of Arizona, specific sustainable actions they can take, and how to make these efforts cost-effective. They are taking applications now for their second cohort. Don’t miss the opportunity.

4) Wild Rising. Desert Botanical Garden’s current art exhibition, “Wild Rising” by Cracking Art,  traveled all the way from Milan. This installation of more than 1,000 animal sculptures made from colorful and recyclable plastic is on display throughout the garden through Nov. 8, 2020. General admission is $25, with youth ticket prices available. They are open from 7am to 8pm.

5) Maria Hupfield at the Heard Museum. This solo exhibition of Canadian / Anishinaabek artist Maria Hupfield will feature more than 40 works by the conceptual performance artist. The exhibition, curated by Heard Museum Fine Arts Curator Erin Joyce, will take place over several exhibition spaces and range in content from performance, sculptural installation, video, and document.

6) Cruising the Horizon presents work from several visionary U.S. based artists who explore the theme of futurity, a reference to future imaginings, beings, and ways of existing. Futurity is explored through intersecting elements of space and time with an emphasis on body and materiality. These elements formulate visions of the future where black, brown, immigrant, queer, and Trans realities are at the center.

7) Haunted Phoenix Ghost Tour. Join Marshall Shore, Arizona’s Hip Historian, for a walking tour of historic and ghostly haunts in downtown Phoenix. This tour will be cohosting by Debe Branning, director of Arizona’s “MVD Ghostchasers”, author of several ghost books on Arizona’s haunts, and has appeared on the Travel Channel on an episode of “Ghost Stories.”

For our October listing update, see our efficiency condo at the Embassy Condominiums at 4th Ave and McKinley. It has some of the best views of downtown and South Mountain. This 720 square foot, 1br/1ba property is listed below comps.

See our listings page for more.

The Embassy Condos are a well-known mid-century property that serves as a lobby-secured, easily accessible and conveniently located community with a unique second-floor pool and shaded parking.

The owner has priced this property very aggressively, leaving plenty of room for renovation. Properties in the same building with these views, when renovated, are going for $60,000 more.

There is a tenant in place until the end of the year, so that leaves room for income while you plan renovations, if you choose that option. After all, who wants to do renovations in the summer?

In the next month, we expect to add to our September listings a 4br/2ba, 2227sf home in Ahwatukee. The owner is completing renovations currently. With inventory in short supply, especially in that area of town, we expect this home to move quickly.

For this October listing update, I also want to give you a preview of listings to come. We expect to have a 3br/2ba home in North Central in January, once it has completed renovations. We are also working with owners of a property in the Encanto-Palmcroft neighborhood, which is under-going extensive renovations.

If you are thinking of renovating and selling your property, call us at 602-456-9388. We can help you plan to stand out in this market.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials. This month, she tells us about college sports in the early, when Phoenix was just a little speck of a town.

We use her services when we list properties of historic significance to help us tell the stories behind the homes.

We are happy that Donna is allowing us to re-publish some of her articles on a monthly basis. If you or your business ever needs a historian, let Donna know at laydeescholar “at” hotmail.com.

In 1910, there were limited options for higher education in the greater Phoenix area. Tempe Normal focused on training teachers but even Tempe was a distance to travel especially considering the potential wet river crossing (the Tempe Bridge was completed in 1931). And the University of Arizona in Tucson proved to be too far for many students as well as costly.

The Phoenix Union High School District, in response in part to all the returning veterans from WWI, decided to provide an opportunity for higher education. And so, Phoenix Junior College opened its doors September 13, 1920, sharing the facilities of Phoenix Union High School on East Van Buren. The college classes and students had to work around the schedule of the high school which made for interesting days.

As the popularity of this higher education site quickly grew (it was free to all Phoenix Union High School and some Federal Indian School graduates), it created a need for more buildings. And the community and high school responded overwhelmingly to that need in supporting bond elections. First the high school district purchased a building, Cottonwood Court. But the enrollment increased again and a new two-story building arose by Montgomery Stadium.

Believe it or not, sports very quickly became a part of the college life. The campus had team men’s sports starting in 1922. It fielded a rifle team, track and field, and football beginning that year. Speaking of football, back in the 1920s, it was a far different sport. Uniforms and helmets were not what they are today. And the fields might be more dirt than grass. The school’s first homecoming was just nine years after the doors open, Oct. 1929. Sadly football is no longer a part of the sports schedule at Phoenix College.

Men’s basketball was in full swing by 1923. In the early days of Phoenix College, comparable college teams did not exist. So, the men’s team had the opportunity to play four-year college teams from the likes of the University of Arizona and the University of Southern California! Yes, for a mere 50 cents you could have seen Phoenix College trounced 39-9 by the Trojans at the PUHS gym back on December 17, 1928. By 1927, the college was fielding men’s teams in baseball, volleyball, and tennis.

Women’s athletic teams also began in 1922 with basketball. Did you know that there were different rules for women’s basketball? Yes, the court was divided in two different sections and the players had to stay in their section except for the roving center. Now that the dribble was once again allowed, whew, but a team only received one point for a two-handed overhead field goal. Thank goodness all that craziness is now passé.

As we begin the vote-by-mail process in Arizona, I need to address the facts and fiction about voting.

In addition to being a realtor, I have worked in public policy for over 20 years, both as an elected official and on campaigns. In that time, I’ve worked to combat voter suppression, to make voting safe and accurate, and to make congressional and legislative districts more competitive. I served as a witness in a case that fought legislation that came from the Arizona legislature, which made it harder for people, particularly in rural Arizona, to vote.

One thing I can tell you is that claims that voter fraud is rampant are greatly exaggerated. There can be only one reason to exaggerate these claims so dramatically. It is meant to call in to question the results of any election in order to remain in power.

If you’d like an in-depth analysis of how this is done, why and what affect it could have on the 2020 election, read this article from the Atlantic Monthly.

If you’d like a funnier version of it, that basically covers the same themes, watch the great John Oliver explain it all. Caution: course language.

A good source of original research about this topic is the Brennan Center for Justice, which has researched elections for decades. They have many studies, which you can access here. I recall this eye-opener report from 2014, which showed that there were only 31 credible cases of voter fraud out of 1 billion votes cast between 2000 and 2014.

On top of that, there is a difference between voter fraud (in which a person who should not vote votes) and registration fraud (in which a person who should not be registered to vote attempts to do so).

In both cases, the numbers are small –and many cases result from simple confusion or are caught before harm is done. Still, the president an his allies conflate the two so they can sew fear.

Even the right-wing Heritage Foundation’s study of voting had a hard time demonstrating large numbers of cases of voter fraud, showing about 1,300 cases (which were even questionable) and certainly not the millions of cases that the president claimed. Here is their take on their report, as well as reporting about it and finally the Brennan Center analysis of the Heritage report.

The same can be said for reports of problems with mail-in ballots. You can debunk that myth here and sort out the facts and fiction yourself.

Luckily, the malicious efforts like those detailed in the Atlantic article may not be likely in Arizona, since we’ve had a longer history of successful vote by mail than other states. In the Atlantic article, there is evidence that the president intends to claim that vote by mail ballots are fraudulent as a way to claim that he won on election night with people who went to the polls, but was “cheated” out of that win by a flood of fraudulent vote by mail ballots the next day.

Not only is this immoral and unethical, but it could lead to violence, death and the destabilizing of our democracy even further.

This tactic is easier in states where vote by mail ballots are not counted until election night. In Arizona, the vote by mail ballot counting begins early enough that they are reported along with the day-of poll voting.

Regardless, it is important to know these crucial voting deadlines.

If all of the facts and fiction of elections fraud seems overwhelming to you, the best course of action is to simply vote. If you don’t feel comfortable mailing your ballot, you can drop it off to the post office directly or you can carry it in to a polling place. Don’t forget to sign it!

Regardless of how you vote, you need to know that our system of voting is safe and accurate. We all deserve that.

This October Market Update finds us with more listings coming on the market, but not enough to affect the supply in any significant way. So, don’t expect prices to drop as a result.

Plus, if you are thinking of listing, you are still in a good place to do it.

Here are some take-away’s from the Cromford Report’s analysis as we look toward the October market.

• Active Listings in September numbered 8,101 versus 13,755 last year – down 41.1% – but up 0.9% from 8,028 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,999 versus 6,011 last year – up 33.1% – and up 1.4% from 7,892 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,667 versus 8,022 last year – up 20.5% – and up 4.9% from 9,213 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $198.68 versus $169.60 last year – up 17.1% – and up 1.9% from $194.98 last month

The flow of new listings was strong throughout September, with roughly 17% more listings posted than in September 2019. However this did not result in much change to the available supply.

With the chronic shortage of re-sale homes, many buyers are turning to new-builds. Here they will not face multiple offers, but they may well find some builders are not accepting contracts except for homes that are near completion. The reason is that prices are climbing steeply and some developers do not want to tie themselves to a fixed price until the home is almost complete. The builders are experiencing an extreme seller’s market and buyers (and their agents) are likely to feel a little less appreciated than usual.

The reason that available supply is not increasing, despite the large increase in new listings, is that demand refuses to die down. It is unusual for the number of listings under contract to be higher on October 1 than September 1, but this is what we see in 2020. Even more startling is the amount by which the number of listings under contract exceeds the 2019 level – 34%. The market was strong this time last year, but now it is on fire.

There have been a number of articles written predicting that home prices will fall next year because of the damage to the economy by the COVID-19 pandemic. This will cause some people, those who took those article seriously, to be very surprised by the huge increase in pricing that is currently going on. The extremely high CMI reading indicates that the upward price trend will continue for the near and medium term, making any price reductions in 2021 rather unlikely.

Over the last 12 months, the average price per sq. ft. has increased over 17% and the current rate of increase in around 2% per month, meaning we are probably headed for an annual rate of over 20% fairly soon.

The economy has severely damaged the finances of a large number of people. However most of those people were unlikely to be in a position to buy a home anyway. Those who are in a position to buy a home have had their determination to do so increased dramatically by the pandemic. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening.

Foreclosure notices in Maricopa County numbered 99 during September. This is down 76% from September 2019. Some people are predicting that foreclosures will rise in 2021. The Cromford Report staff thinks that the record low levels of foreclosure activity in 2020 cannot last forever, but data released about delinquencies by the lending industry suggests that there is unlikely to be the sort of foreclosure flood that we saw in 2007 through 2012. Remember that the record monthly count was 10,712. That was truly a mountain of foreclosure notices and we currently have no more than a molehill.

Call us at 602-456-9388 if you need help building your strategy.

Here’s last month’s report, for comparison.

In light of the pandemic, and the lack of group activities or events, here are some links that we hope will be helpful to you as we struggle through this most unusual summer.

If you missed our last list, see here.

Stay safe. Stay healthy!

1) Building a Trolley Museum. The Phoenix Trolley Museum has launched a campaign to buy a property in the lower Grand Avenue area that they have been leasing since leaving Hance Park in 2017.

“This is an opportunity to re-establish the Trolley Museum on a firmer foundation than it has had in the last 40 years,” said John Mulhollen, President of the museum. “Now is the time to buy. Our lease has a purchase provision where we can get the property for $150,000, even though it’s worth about half a million.” The timing is critical, Mulhollen said, because the lease term comes up at the end of September and the property could become unaffordable after that. “So, it’s now or never.”

2) Local First Indie Week XXL. A little later in the year than usual, Indie Week XXL brings you a whole month to discover and support Arizona’s small, independent businesses through a special edition of Independents Week.

It is more important than ever to support local businesses. More of your dollars stay in our community, rather than going to out-of-state investors. You also help keep more people employed.

This year, download the playing card to see how you can support local businesses, and enter to win prizes.

3) Edible Backyard Summit 2020. As a mostly successful backyard gardener, I know that there is still a lot that I don’t know. There are so many plants that I still want to grow and I want to produce more to eat and to share.

Whether you’ve wanted to get started from square one, or you are trying to keep your garden healthy, as I am, this is a great opportunity to learn.

This 4-part series from UrbanFarm.org runs each day from 3pm through 5:30pm on September 15, 16, 17, and 18, and you can watch the videos for up to 24 hours after the event, if you can’t watch live.

Best of all, it is as free as the sunshine that grows our food!

4) Arizona Restaurant Week. During the new Arizona Restaurant Week: Dine in or Take Out, participating restaurants will follow all CDC guidelines for opening and social distancing, whether dining in or taking out. The ARA is anticipating more than 200 of the Valley’s most beloved restaurants — from five-star fine dining establishments to locally owned and operated “mom and pop” hidden gems — to get involved.

As in years past, participating restaurants around the state will offer culinary adventurers dedicated menus that showcase local chefs’ creative talents through innovative dishes. Featuring a unique tasting opportunity apart from their regular menus, restaurants will offer three-course, prix-fixe menus for just $33 or $44 per person. 

5) COVID-19 Mobile Testing. Testing for COVID-19 has been going on for a while, but you might find this list of mobile testing sites useful.

From what I’ve seen, the lines have been going down and the wait times for results are getting shorter. Naturally, this does not change the need to wear masks and wash hands. So, now may be a good time to get out and get it done.

6) Literacy Site Leaders. Read Better Be Better, an organization that helps young students with literacy, is hiring site leaders.

RBBB’s after-school reading comprehension program offers community members the opportunity and training to impact our education system by helping to build literacy and leadership skills in students across the Phoenix metro area. Site Leaders work directly with families enrolled in the Read Better Be Better at Home program to provide training on program implementation, track student progress, and conduct weekly check-ins.

7) Labor Day Weekend Fire Safety. If you are thinking of camping this weekend be sure to check out the fire restrictions before you go. Since Covid-19, the forests have been flooded with people who are new to the outdoors. They never learned how to respect nature. Plus, with decades of reduced funding for forest services and park rangers, fewer people are given an opportunity to learn forest etiquette. So, we are seeing more trash and more people ignoring fire restrictions.

Have fun and lead by example! You can pick up some useful tips from Leave No Trace, a non-profit that helps promote outdoor ethics. As the Boy Scouts taught me, “leave your campsite cleaner than you found it.”

For this September Market Update, there might be a slight shift coming over what we saw last month, but mostly because more listings are coming on at a slightly faster rate. We definitely need more of that.

First, this quote from our friends at the Cromford Report:

“It looks like it is not going to surpass 342, bur 341.7 is still the highest market index reading we have ever seen.

New listings are appearing at a faster rate now, up some 15 to 18% from this time last year. But demand is also very strong and is soaking up most of the new supply within a few days of its arrival. The market is still very difficult for buyers, but if the seasonal pattern conforms to the norm, we should see a few more listings to choose from during October and November.

Having said that, 2020 has so far failed to conform to any of the usual seasonal patterns.”

So, what does this mean for the rest of the year? Well, we only have four months left, so it is not likely that this dynamic will change in that time. So, if you are getting a listing ready, you can feel confident that things will be largely the same by January.

Remember, September through November is the second busiest time of the year, after February through June. Once people sit down for Thanksgiving dinner a general tired feeling comes over them and they seem to slow down until late January. I’m no medical professional, but I think its the tryptophan.

On a side note, I was on the phone with an interested buyer yesterday to said, “I heard that if Biden wins the election, that home prices are going to plummet.”

As much as I want to see a new administration, we have to reject the idea that home prices are going shift wildly, regardless of who wins. The real estate market just does not work that way.

So, if you hear that kind of speculation, just set it in the “wild partisan talking point” circular bin.

We are seeing high home prices because there is a shortage of inventory. I think that will change only when one or a few of the following things happen: people sell off homes they are using for short-term rental and/or long-term rental; laws are changed to make it easier to build condos; land is freed up to build more owner-occupied homes; or more homes are built.

And any one of those will take a while.

So, if you are looking to purchase, don’t expect the market to change soon. Get a home if you need it. If you are thinking of selling, get your listing ready for that end-of-summer market.