Our May Market Status Report is a mixed bag. Anecdotally, we are seeing shorter lines and fewer feeding frenzies for every listing.

The Cromford Report compares the numbers for May 1, 2022 compared with May 1, 2021 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 6,688 versus 5,080 last year – up 31.7% – and up 32.4% from 5,051 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,386 versus 7,829 last year – down 5.7% – and down 7.8% from 8,008 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,889 versus 12,187 last year – down 10.7% – and down 6.3% from 11,620 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,270 versus 10,200 last year – down 9.1% – and down 8.6% from 10,144 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $302.64 versus $243.36 last year – up 24.4% – and up 4.1% from $290.75 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $466,000 versus $373,000 last year – up 24.9% – and up 2.3% from $456,000 last month

To boil that down, the number of listings is up, but monthly sales are down and prices continue upward.

Cromford continues their May market status report:

“Between late October and mid March we saw a downward trend in supply. However this has completely changed direction over the past 6 weeks and active listing counts are rising very strongly. They are up more than 32% in a single month, one of the most dramatic shifts in direction we have ever seen. If this trend continues for several months the market dynamics will change significantly.

The large increase in supply is caused by a combination of factors. First, we are seeing more new listings arrive, possibly because people who have made large unrealized profits cash out while the going is good. Secondly, we are seeing a significant drop in demand as a sudden jump in interest rates and eye-watering prices discourage new owner-occupiers from entering the market. We note that listings under contract are down more than 6% since last month. Closed sales are also down more than 9% from April 2021. Demand is weak and getting weaker.

The overall effect is a major cooling event, turning a hot housing market into one that still favors sellers (for now) but is looking increasingly dangerous with each passing day. It only favors sellers because the supply is still very low compared with a normal market. But if supply continues to increase, as looks very likely at this point, we could quickly find ourselves with as many sellers as buyers. The market does not turn on a dime, but it can certainly change dramatically over a handful of months, as it did between August and November 2005. The charts today suggest we are now entering a very different phase of the market cycle.

Make no mistake – closed prices will continue to rise for some time – they are a trailing indicator and will only stop rising long after the market has cooled down. But it does not take too much imagination to envisage a situation where they overshoot. Right now we have just seen the average $/SF rise 4.1% in a single month. But this reflects the huge imbalance between supply and demand that existed two months ago. That imbalance is much smaller today and is shrinking noticeably with every passing day.

We are entering a much more uncertain period and great caution is advisable. The mid-range market between April 2021 and April 2022 has been largely driven by enthusiastic investors. If their enthusiasm dissipates and turns to fear we could see far more rapid change than we have become used to.”

As you get ready to enjoy the end of the cool days, here are some April Notables –some events and good reads that you might find useful.

Arizona History Happy Hour. So, I’ll be a special guest on Marshall Shore’s Arizona History Happy Hour, this Thursday at 7pm. I’ll be sharing trivia about Arizona’s political history. I’m no historian, but I do have some great stories to share from tank commanders-turned politicians to notable firsts in Arizona politics. So, sign up, pour a drink and join us!

Fight for our Future Rally at the Capitol. To mark Earth Day this year, The Climate Action Campaign is joining a nationwide mobilization to crank up the pressure on our elected leaders to get bold climate and clean energy investments done. On Saturday, April 23, Arizonans are rallying for Climate, Care, Jobs, Justice here in Phoenix because now is the time to give it everything we’ve got. Join on Saturday, April 23 to send lawmakers at all levels a message they can’t ignore – Climate, Care, Jobs, Justice.

This event is co-sponsored by Arizona Interfaith Power & Light, Arizona Working Families Party, Climate Action Campaign, EcoMadres, EDF Action (Advocacy Partner of The Environmental Defense Fund), Green New Deal Network, Moms Clean Air Force, Poder Latinx, & Sierra Club’s Grand Canyon Chapter

Maricopa County Solar Co-Op forming Now. A group called Solar United Neighbors, or SUN, organizes home owners to buy solar panels and batteries at lower prices. By organizing a critical mass of home owners, they are able to work with solar and battery installers to get better prices. So, if you want panels but never did it because you either thought they were too expensive, or did not trust some of the companies that sell solar panels door-to-door, SUN can help you get what you are looking for –from trusted installers at a better price.

Right to Repair. Have you heard of the movement to force companies to make it easier (like it used to be) to repair products we purchase, rather than being forced to toss them in landfills? It’s called Right to Repair. The most famous example, I think, is that John Deere installed locks on tractors so that their technicians have to repair them at greater cost to the farmer. Personally, I’ve had to throw things away, or recycle them the best I can, that had one small defect, which I could have repaired with the right piece or tool. There are efforts to pass an act in the US, as they have been passed in Europe, to give some power back to consumers. The Arizona PIRG Education Fund compiled repairability rankings for 186 phones and laptops, grading manufacturers on whether they are Failing the Fix.

Earth Day Celebrations. There are a bunch of things you can do to activate and entertain on Earth Day, or the days around them this month. A few are notable, and close by. Check out Keep Phoenix Beautiful’s 10th Anniversary Earth Day Celebration at Cesar Chavez Park. Chispa Arizona is also hosting an event in El Oso Park in the west valley where a number of organizations are coming together for one event.

Turning Golf Courses in to Nature Preserves. You may have seen my video about why the City of Phoenix should not be in the business of owning golf courses. They own about 9 of them. But it is notable that there are about 160 golf courses in the greater valley, which use the same amount of water annually as 130,000 homes. Let that sink in. In any case, it was heartening to see this story in AZ Central about the community that worked to purchase a failed golf course and turned it in to a conservation area. This provides green space, habitat, water conservation, aquifer replenishment and sustainability to a very unsustainable valley.

Buildings — the Biggest Carbon Contributor. Did you know that nationally, buildings use 75% of the amount of energy produced overall and account for 40% of carbon emissions? I was surprised to hear that, but it makes sense. We use a ton of energy just to heat and cool them. There is an incredible amount of value in energy efficiency that needs to be prioritized by lawmakers. You can learn more here: The elephant in the room.

Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the many New Deal homes that were built during the Great Depression to help put people back to work.

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During the Great Depression, FDR along with Congress created a number of programs to help put the unemployed back to work. Arizona was one of those states which received the benefits from many of those programs. You may be familiar with some of these programs or at least their products: Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC); Works Progress Administration (WPA); WPA Arts Project (WRAAP); Farm Security Administration (FSA); and, Public Works Administration (PWA). And all these initials can get confusing.

I suspect that the most familiar agency and its works is the WPA. Who hasn’t seen sidewalks marked WPA and a date while walking in Phoenix or a lot of other communities across the country? You can also find them on the curbs. Be sure to look the next time you are walking in say Coronado Historic District or along east Van Buren.

But the WPA also was instrumental in development of some of the infrastructure of our parks. For instances, the WPA built the bathhouse for the pool at Coronado Park and the bandshell and the clubhouse at Encanto Park. Upgrades were also made to Grant Park and Eastlake Park.

Perhaps South Mountain Park, though, received the most attention in the area of parks. The CCC went into action building roads and trails, ramadas, lookout shelters, and erosion control structures. The next time you visit the park, notice the rock entrance station. And did you know that there was a CCC campsite in the park?

Government buildings arose too. Which ones? The 1938 addition to the Arizona Capitol, the Post Office at Central and Fillmore, the grandstand at the State Fairgrounds, and the old adobe National Guard Arsenal in Papago Park. Many of these buildings also sport some beautiful art work. Then there were schools such as Phoenix College buildings on the new campus and North High School to meet the needs of the exploding enrollment at Phoenix Union High School, and improvements for Alhambra School.

But there are two projects that most Phoenicians do not know: Phoenix Homesteads and Camelback Farms. Only one still exists.

Phoenix Homesteads, sponsored by the Resettlement Administration, was a type of public housing on lots which were large enough that they allowed the residents to have gardens and small farm animals that could feed the residents making them self-sufficient. Today Phoenix Homesteads, a unique historic district with 45 homes between 26^th – 28^th streets and Thomas and Osborn roads, appears as an oasis in our desert environment.

About a half-mile north of Phoenix Homesteads was Camelback Farms along Indian School Road and 27^th Street. The 84-acre property sponsored by the Farm Security Administration (FSA) was operated as a co-op and training facility with 35 homes and a community center. There were several other such FSA co-ops in the valley. Camelback Farms had a dairy. But all things come to an end. In April 1945, the acreage went up for sale and today it is covered with houses.

The following link will help you discover other places throughout the state: https://livingnewdeal.org/arizona

We have a new listing or two to share with you. One came on the market a few days ago and the other is coming on in mid-April. Watch our listings page for more information and photos on both.

1802 N 7th Ave, Phoenix. 3br/2.75ba, 2,275sq on a 10,400sf lot. $1M

This new listings is a huge, beautiful, total remodel with its new entrance on Coronado. The address will soon change to Coronado, as well. The home has everything you’ll want: massive accordion glass patio doors, a massive living room and expansive kitchen with lots of storage and counter space.

GE Cafe Line white & copper appliances bring together the kitchen. The owners have put extensive attention and expense in every detail of this renovation, down to quality doors, flooring and accessories. Don’t miss the separate laundry room and kitchen pantry.

The bedrooms are roomy and the bathrooms sparkle. The front door has been moved to Coronado for more privacy and the garage has been vastly improved. Many visitors at the Encanto/Palmcroft Historic neighborhood home tour commented on how refreshingly quiet the home is.

Coming soon. 1302 E Orangewood Ave. Phoenix. 3br/1.75ba, 1,960sqf. Price TBA.

Current owner has made significant improvements to this new listing over the years.

The kitchen, bathrooms, flooring and back yard patio cover are all additions while this owner has owned the property.

The current resident owns a kitchen installation company and used the best materials and labor on the kitchen he uses daily.

The home has been well maintained and is move-in ready.

The home sits in a quiet neighborhood, close to shopping, freeway access and entertainment. You can step directly outside to use the walking/biking path along the famous Arizona Canal.

From the front yard or the back yard, you get to enjoy a panoramic view of the Phoenix Mountain Preserve.

As a runner who uses this canal a lot, I can tell you what a great thing it is to spend time on this important waterway, watching the sun rise or set.

We expect this property to go live as a new listing the second week of April.

Active Now. 1201 E McKinley St, Phoenix. Infill Opportunity. 2br/1ba+. $445,000

Infill development special! This opportunity is about the land and the location!

This is a solidly-built historic property, and represents an opportunity to fully rehab inside of this cute little home while also building multiple cash flow units on the rest of the parcel.

The historic home occupies only about 25% of the parcel, which is zoned R-3 Multiple Family Residential, on a corner lot, leaving plenty of room to develop out and up!

Build multiple income properties here!

Roomy parcels like this are very rare in Garfield these days and offer an opportunity to build homes in this very popular downtown neighborhood.

Donna Reiner has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the Pioneer Band from the early days of Phoenix, in the 1890s.

People love parades where they can ooh and ah over the colorful and unique floats, see the mounted horse riders, and perhaps some baton twirlers. But for some of us, it is the bands that draw our interest with their music and routines. What talent with all the groups!

So, imagine the Phoenix Brass Band which was formed in 1880, consisted largely of non-musicians? What??? How could that be? And my goodness, what did they sound like? There certainly is no record to answer that question, but there was definitely going to be a band or two in our future to entertain Phoenicians.

For the next 10 years, various bands played in Phoenix. Most of them were brass bands (that means instruments like tubas, horns, cornets, trumpets and trombones). But come January 1, 1890, the Phoenix Brass Band had morphed into the Phoenix Pioneer band and quality performances were definitely noticed.

The band played for the 1890 Memorial Day Parade and then the 4^th of July Parade. At that point the Arizona Republican noted: “The Phoenix Band’s playing on the Fourth astonished even its most ardent friends. The band has made splendid progress in a few months….”

More parades, summer concerts, requests to play at various fairs including the inaugural Territorial Fair, and at times daily practices. Occasionally the band was “stiffed” when those groups that hired them did not pay up in a timely fashion. Still, they did continue to practice and provide music to the citizens of Phoenix whenever requested and primarily for free.

By 1892, the band met weekly on Saturday nights for rehearsals at Fireman’s Hall and had increased its membership to 16 players. Political rallies, both Democrat and Republican, wanted the Phoenix Pioneer Band for entertainment.

1894 saw the band become a military band complete with new uniforms. Four years later the group decided to merge with the Central City Band. This newly formed group would now have a maximum of 30 members and still retain the Phoenix Pioneer Band name.

The Arizona Republican is replete with news in the early 1900s about band members, current and former and their doings; in-fighting; concerts on the open-air plaza of old city hall; pioneer celebrations at Riverside Park; performances at Eastlake Park; and their weekly Sunday outdoor, usually, concerts. And the program of music was often published in the paper too.

And the band played on with the final mentions of it actually performing found in spring issues of a 1928 Arizona Republican. But….old bands and musicians do not just fade away in the dust of history.

A few months ago, in the spirit of that original Pioneer Band, a new Phoenix Pioneer band has formed with a mixture of musicians, experienced and inexperienced, amateur and professional, just like when it was first organized in 1880. And as for the music, whenever possible, it is exactly what was played well over 100 years ago. Perhaps you might want to join the fun at this link.

I’m wondering how many of you have a right to vote in the Salt River Project (SRP) board elections and don’t even know it.

It starts with this crazy fact: SRP only allows utility customers who own property to vote in their board elections. You get one vote for every acre you own. It’s a feudal acreage voting system.

We all can vote on who runs the Corporation Commission, which governs the other large utilities, but not SRP.

It’s a hold over from when SRP was first created. It was originally a co-operative of farmers and mines that got together over 100 years ago to irrigate their land and channel water for mining. Over time, they figured out they could dam up the water and generate electricity. The’ve since added the usual array of dirty power plants, like coal and methane gas.

Also over time, that acreage was divided up in to small home parcels, and the voting rights were divided in to portions of a vote.

But, think about that. Some rancher with thousands of acres can out-vote thousands of other customers with a swipe of a pen. They probably don’t use thousands of time the amount of energy. Although they probably do use quite a bit more water than one home.

How do you know if you have the right to vote? Well, you need to go to this web page and find out. If you are unsure, just request a ballot here and you will find out. Request a ballot by Friday, March 25, 2022 at 5 pm MST. Elections take place on Tuesday, April 5, 2022. If you have questions or need additional information, call the SRP elections information line at (602) 236-3048, 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, or e-mail election@srpnet.com.

There are three major types of property voting rights:

1. You are an SRP customer for power.
2. You are an SRP customer for water.
3. You live in an area that SRP used to serve, but many decades ago gave over to APS. This covers huge swaths of central Phoenix. So, you might have a right to vote in that election and not even know it. I vote every chance I get and I live in Willo!

That last category is great if you want a rebate from SRP every year. It’s called SRP Shareholder Compensation. They cover the difference between what you would have paid had you stayed under SRP and what you do pay under APS.

But, I digress. Let’s go back to this “back-assward” voting system.

Could SRP get hip to the post-US Constitution times and allow all people to vote? Sure! But that would mean somebody would give up power.

Speaking of giving up power, there is an inspiring group of people who are trying to break SRP’s lock on power. It’s worth a look.

Here’s another reason why this is crucial. SRP is singing a pretty song about cutting carbon emissions, but is still putting highly-polluting methane gas in to service. Read about the planned 840MW power plant that SRP is planning for the already environmentally distressed town of Randolph.

Why does this matter to you? Well, if SRP keeps using methane gas (what the industry misleadingly labels as “natural”), SRP will be paying more for gas to fuel the plant in the future than they would for solar, wind and batteries. This is a reality. Gas is a volatile commodity. The sun is not.

Oh, and speaking of sun, SRP put more extra fees on home owners that install solar that probably any utility in the country. That needs to change, too.

“How are we fairing in terms of supply March vs. March?”, you ask?

“As in March of 2022 vs March of 2021?”

I’m happy to tell you! This information tells you a lot about where things are moving, as investment funds continue to gobble up about 1 in every 4 home sales.

Well, here’s what the Cromford Report has to say about it.

• “Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,588 versus 4,491 last year – up 2.2% – but down 5.9% from 4,876 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 8,305 versus 9,094 last year – down 8.7% – and down 0.9% compared with 8,380 last month
• Pending Listings: 8,333 versus 8,027 last year – up 3.8% – and up 6.9% from 7,798 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,050 versus 12,630 last year – down 4.6% – but up 6.6% from 11,302 last month
• Monthly Sales: 8,000 versus 8,035 last year – down 0.4% – but up 12.7% from 7,096 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.55 versus $231.11 last year – up 23.1% – and up 3.6% from $274.70 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000 versus $349,000 last year – up 27.5% – and up 2.7% from $433,500 last month”

In English, please?

“The downward trend in supply that started in late October continued throughout February, but slowed down. We have slightly more inventory than we had this time last year, as long as we exclude UCB and CCBS listings. We have fewer active listings in total, but UCB counts have fallen by almost 20% compared to a year ago.

Demand is slightly below last year but given the sharp increase in interest rates, it is holding up pretty well. The market is cooler than a year ago, but not by much. The contract ratio stands at 263, down from 281 this time last year, but still abnormally high. In a normal market, this would be somewhere between 30 and 60.

Prices are rising at colossal speed. The average $/SF has risen 6.2% in the first 2 months of the year and are likely to continue rising until May at least. The median sales price is up from $425,000 to $445,000 in 2 months and looks likely to break $470,000 by the end of the second quarter. The third quarter is always a slower period and we may get some respite from the rising prices between June and September.

There are plenty of observers suggesting the market is due for a downturn, but the market is not giving off any data to support that opinion. Supply remains extremely low with no sign of significant new supply of homes to buy. Demand is down a little but seems to be extremely resilient and although it is lower than last year, it remains very strong by historic standards. A change may happen, and you know we will report it if it is there to be seen. Right now there is no change to report.”

So, if you are looking to buy, be prepared for prices to continue to push upward.

If you are looking to sell, get it listed before the summer heat comes on.

Call us at 602-456-9388 to build a strategy for success.

Still hiding from the cold a little? Well, as cold as it even gets in Phoenix. Let the February Good Reads keep you company.

SRP’s Got Bad Gas. Salt River Project, or SRP, despite telling the public that it has a great plan to burn only clean energy in the future, is planning on adding 840 megawatts of methane gas capacity near Coolidge. (Notice that I said “methane gas”? That’s because I reject the fossil gas industry’s marketing efforts to get us to think that “natural” gas is somehow clean. Methane is 80 times more damaging to the earth than CO2. In any case, they are locating the plant next to the small town of Randolph, thus forcing the residents to endure even more pollution.

I Feel Redeemed. Back in 2004, in the legislature, I had a bill that would have dramatically increased solar on big box stores.  GOP and APS killed it, naturally. It is great to see Environment Arizona’s study showing solar on superstores really is the low-hanging fruit that could combat climate change while saving companies money.

OK. This is the Last Climate-Related Link. I apologize for the hyper-focus on climate, folks. But, as a realtor I believe it’s my duty to help my clients and friends protect their long-term investments in Arizona –their homes. A new report by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration found 2021 was the 4th hottest year ever. Extreme weather killed hundreds of Americans & cost us more than $140 Billion.

Our February shortage report illustrates why this is a great time to sell your home –or especially any investment properties you have. It looks like demand might be weakening a bit. While still high, buyers may be fed up with paying increasing prices.

Here are the basics, in review of January – according to our friends at the Cromford Report:

• Active Listings: 4,876 versus 5,180 last year – down 5.9% – and down 15.6% from 5,776 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,798 versus 7,070 last year – up 10.3% – and up 22.6% from 6,359 last month
• Monthly Sales: 7,114 versus 7,354 last year – down 3.3% – and down 23.3% from 9,271 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $274.45 versus $217.47 last year – up 26.2% – and up 2.5% from $267.87 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $433,500 versus $339,000 last year – up 27.9% – and up 2.0% from $425,000 last month

“The downward trend in supply that started in late October continued throughout January, taking us to another record low – the lowest number of active listings at the end of January we have ever recorded. Last year’s 5,181 struck as as extremely low at the time, but we have 6% less in 2022. However most of the missing supply is at the high end of the market. Most cheaper areas have more supply than this time last year.

Demand looks very strong when you look at pending listings, up more than 10% compared with this time last year.

January closings were down about 3% compared to last year. and using the Cromford® Demand Index we see that although it remains high, it is starting to weaken. This is probably a result of buyer weariness with the prices going up another 2% to 2.5% during January. The median is up $94,500 over the past 12 months, an increase of almost 28%.

The outlook for February is for prices to keep rising and demand to weaken slightly. It is not certain whether demand will weaken enough to cause supply to rise or if we will continue to struggle with desperately low numbers of active listings. Only a very steep rise in supply will work if we are to see prices stabilize, never mind start coming back down.”

Donna Reiner, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  She is a regular contributor to our newsletter. This month, Donna tells us about the Valley Garden Center.

Gardening in the Salt River Valley has a long and rich history. While the local Indian tribes planted vegetables, the early settlers (women) decided that flowers and trees were a way to retain the memories of their former homes. They brought seeds and had seeds and cuttings sent from back home which is how we got some of our ubiquitous weeds. With water, these gardens flourished and also provided a contrast to the natural desert vegetation.

The Valley Garden Center (VGC), which is composed of garden clubs, plant societies, and other horticulturally oriented associations, has been a part of the Salt River Valley since 1939. During World War II, VGC had its first club house on small lot at 1^st Street and Culver which the organization purchased for $4500.

They installed a Victory Garden and broadcasted (on the radio) weekly horticulture programs. Ready for a larger parcel, VGC sold that lot to Barry Goldwater for $35,000 in 1946. Wisely, the group invested the funds in US Bonds.

The Center signed a 99-year lease with the city in December 1946 for a strip of land in Encanto Park on 15th Avenue, bounded by Coronado and Holly Streets. Now the work began to have a new and much larger building to serve the needs of a myriad of garden clubs.

Over the course of the years, the organization erected a club house designed by Edward Varney and Associates (dedicated in January 1949), created six thematic gardens on the property, provided free guided tours, maintained an extensive horticultural library, worked with Encanto Park on the development of a Nature Trail, and published four editions of Practical Gardening in Southern Arizona. These are quite useful even today, so look for them in your nearest used bookstore.

The Center’s Rose Test Garden was the only one approved in Arizona by the American Rose Society when it “opened” in 1948. Later moved in 1961 to its present location north of the VGC building, an invasion of nut grass in 1968 forced the removal of the rose bushes and drastic treatment of the soil. Nevertheless, the Center persevered with the construction of new rose beds which sprung forth in 1972.

Many of you have probably seen the display of color when driving on 15^th Avenue between Palm Lane and Holly Street. But don’t just drive by. Stop and smell the roses, you’ll be glad you did.

Since it is January, you may need to wait until the end of next month to see new growth and April to see new blooms. It is worth the wait. Park at the Garden Center and check out the demonstration gardens with different design themes located to the north of the Center’s building. Perhaps you will discover an idea or two for your landscaping project: koi pond and wooden teahouse, sculpture, tropical garden, patio garden, and, of course, a desert garden The Valley Garden Center provides a place that showcases the history and importance of gardening not only in Phoenix, but also in the valley.