The big news recently is that NYC approved ranked choice voting (RCV) in city elections. Sorry for the repeat of this topic, but this is big.

RCV has always been a method of voting that is much more easily experienced than explained. The fact that NYC approved it means that millions of people are going to experience this incredibly important reform of our voting system.

Here’s a little FB video I did explaining it.

While we are talking about the importance of experiencing what NYC approved, have a look at this link to try ranked choice voting for yourself. Imagine what your life would be like if you could do this with candidates. I, for one, would love it.

Arizonans, in particular, are very independent-minded. This is the best for us. I’ve told y’all about Voter Choice Arizona in past articles. I’ve been helping that organization and I’m happy to hear that they are seeing positive success building their coalition of Rs, Ds and Is from the ground up.

It was particularly interesting the the Center for the Future of Arizona did a Gallup poll in which 3/5th of voters expressed support ranked choice voting. This broke down to 69% for Ds, 41% for Rs and 65% for Is.

You can see the results at this link and you can see a column that they placed in the Capitol Times here.

This is a huge development, at least from my perspective. I’ve always assumed that very few people knew of, let alone understood RCV, simply because I never hear people talking about it or it reported on in the news.

I know. My error is in assuming that something would be popular if I hear about it. I’ll bring that up to my therapist, I promise.

But, really, the fact that people know about it and like it, generally, is a great launch pad for the kind of reform we need in Arizona.

Ideally, people in cities and towns all over the state will give it a try before we take a run at a high-stakes ballot measure or something. I can easily see the two parties trying to shut it down at the legislature.

Donna Reiner, a local historian and a good friend of Get Your PHX, has written many articles over the years for the Arizona Republic and others about Phoenix history and memorials.  This month, she tells us about this “The Rest Room,” and it’s not what you think. This is not a historical tour-de-force of public toilets. You’ll have to read to learn more.

During this Covid-19 pandemic with government buildings and non-essential businesses closed, most of us have had one place that we truly miss. For me, as a historian and rather curious minded person, it is the LIBRARY. Many items I regularly use are simply not online. For other people, the library is a refuge, a safe place; and for others, it is a lifeline to the rest of the world through its books and internet connection.

Believe it or not, the Phoenix Public Library and its multiple branches had its early beginnings in 1897 when a local women’s group, The Friday Club, formed to discuss history. But these women quickly decided to collect an assortment of books and open a library in the Fleming Building in 1898 while still meeting regularly to discuss a variety of topics. While initially the library was for the Friday Club’s use, it soon became widely popular with Phoenicians. Books to read for pleasure or to learn about new places and ideas were a commodity that not everyone could afford. But still Phoenicians did love to read.

Success of this grassroots enterprise led the city of Phoenix to move the library into City Hall in 1899. Fortunately for us, the Friday Club and other boosters were instrumental a few years later in getting $25,000 from Andrew Carnegie for a dedicated library building. Opening in February 1908, the Carnegie Library at 1101 W. Washington, proudly served the community until 1952.

Another local women’s group, the Woman’s Club of Phoenix, spearheaded the move in early 1915 for a restroom in the downtown shopping district for, of course, women who might spend the afternoon shopping. Restroom??? How does a restroom connect to the library?

The women were persistent, and the city agreed that such a place was important to provide. The Municipal Restroom in City Hall Park opened on the northwest corner of Jefferson and Second Street in 1917. Rather than facilities just for women, although they were the primary users, this new one-story building had a basement entirely for women with a toilet, kitchenette, and nursery. The first floor provided a toilet for men and a lounging area.

A 1920 article in The American City described that first-floor area as “resembl[ing] the ordinary municipal rest room about as much as a living-room in a home resembles a cell in a municipal jail.” Wicker furniture, bright carpets, lovely paintings on the wall, AND a corner devoted to books. Yes, the city installed a branch library in this delightful room which could accommodate about 1000 books. The library’s first branch was born.

Over the years, the Restroom Branch, as it was fondly known, offered storytelling hours for children and other programs. By 1930, the Phoenix Public Library had added two other branches, with the Restroom Branch being the most heavily used branch. Yet, in June 1935, the city decided to close this branch despite the protests by downtown businesses and users of the facility ending a rather unique library experience.

Anecdotally, I feel like I’m seeing more listings coming on as I’m writing this monthly market update, and as I was preparing a tour yesterday. In addition, people are speculating that more will come on as more people get vaccines. However the look-back over the last month from the Cromford Report indicates just the opposite.

Let’s check in with the analysts there for some highlights from their monthly market update, which came out on March 1. I encourage you to read this whole piece, as it covers a whole slew of market-wide issues and myths.

“In March 2020 we wrote that the lack of supply was making life extremely difficult for buyers. It is now down almost 60% since then. What phrase can we use to describe this – scorched earth?

The monthly sales count, pending listing counts and under contract counts are all higher than last year, but not by as much as last month. This confirms the downward trend in demand. Lower demand really does not make much difference when supply is this scarce. Even if demand dropped well below normal we would still have multiple offers for most listings.

Multiple offers are the mechanism that drives prices up. One offer per listing represents stability. No offers tends to drive prices down. We would need about 7 times the current supply to get back somewhere close to normality. (Emphasis added for my listing update.)

The full impact of the housing shortage is not being properly recognized, because many people incorrectly think the end of forbearance will bring a flood of distressed homes onto the market. We think this is very unlikely. While we can imagine a noticeable increase in supply taking place, it is very unlikely to reach the levels that would dramatically change the balance in the Greater Phoenix market. It is somewhat reminiscent of the “shadow inventory” theory of 2011 through 2013 which turned out to be a mirage, invented by a data analysis company that did not understand how to measure the foreclosure process properly. Their erroneous calculations were re-broadcast by the media and spread as if they were true. But it was all imaginary. There was no significant shadow inventory then and there is no huge wave of distressed homes waiting to hit the market now. Do not be taken in by these myths just because other people chose to believe them. Over the centuries many people have believed things that are now known to be false. It is still just as common today. In fact the internet and social media makes it even easier for falsehoods to become accepted as facts.

Many people also seem to have forgotten what really happened during the bursting of the housing bubble: The sequence is important.

1. The active listing supply increased dramatically between April 2005 and December 2006 due to over-building of new homes and the frantic speculative wave of 2004 quickly losing momentum
2. Prices started to fall from July 2006 onward due to supply becoming much stronger than demand
3. The fall in prices meant recent buyers had zero or negative equity from 2007 onwards, loosening their motivation to keep up their mortgage payments
4. Foreclosures started to be filed starting in 2007 against homes that were quickly abandoned due to the lack of equity
5. A huge wave of bank owned properties hit the market in 2008 and 2009, adding to the supply problem
6. The lack of equity meant many homes listed in 2008 through 2011 were short sales.
7. Investors pounced on the bank-owned homes and short sales from 2009 onwards, bringing the drop in prices to a complete halt by 2011

This is unlike the current situation. We have far too little supply, not far too much. Note that the excess supply in 2006 was the primary problem that burst the bubble. The foreclosures came later and were an effect, not a cause, of the bubble bursting.

This bears repeating – FORECLOSURES DID NOT CAUSE THE HOUSING CRASH – they were a consequence of the excess supply of 2006. Falling prices caused the foreclosures, not the other way round. It then became a negative feedback loop until prices fell low enough to attract speculators and investors back into the market in 2009. The housing crash was visible and inevitable by the fourth quarter of 2005, while foreclosure were still at normal levels.

In 2021, we are entering a period of extreme appreciation. We are measuring 23.1% using the monthly $/SF figure and this is quite mild compared with what we expect to see in 2 or 3 months time. The average price per square foot for closed listings rose almost 5% in just 4 weeks during February.

Dollar volume is at very high levels for the time of year, thanks to unit sales up 7.4% and pricing up 23.1% compared to a year ago, when the market was already at full steam ahead.

We expect to see dollar volume hit new records during the second quarter, along with all of the pricing metrics.”

Back to a note from me for this market update. I’ve added the image, below, of the long term perspective of the Cromford Index. Look at how much higher we are now than we were prior to the great recession. Cause for alarm? It’s hard to tell. At some point, buyers will stop trying and sellers will decide to list. It has to come back in to balance, but I doubt that means prices will drop any time soon.

If you want analysis outside of this monthly market update for your particular situation, give us a call at 602-456-9388.