This little snapshot of the market is really useful, and the folks at the Cromford Report put it out every month.

You can see that the active listings are down by 5.6%, valley-wide. At the same time the listings under contract are up by 7.4% and the number of closed sales is up by about 1%.

What does that mean?

It means we are burning through the available inventory. It also means that there continues to be an upward pressure on prices. That is why you see the Months of Supply graph going down from 2.5 months to 2 months.

The way to look at this particular snapshot of supply is to ask, “if no other houses came on the market and people continue to purchase at current rates, how many months would it take to totally exhaust the inventory?”

It’s a fanciful notion, to be sure, because people will always list homes. But it gives us an idea of how fast things are selling.

The listing success rate is about the same this July as it was last July and the July before that. So, the strong seller’s market is steady over three years.

If we turn to the Cromford Index, you can see that the seller’s advantage that had weakened at the end of last year is rocketing upward right now.

The big question will be what happens when the summer draws to and end and we see what is typically the second-busiest market time every year, between September and late November?

To be sure, this summer has been pretty busy. Will buyers hold off, waiting for prices to cool, or will they calculate that prices will continue upward?

I continue to predict that, if/when a market correction comes, it will be less dramatic in CenPho, where we can’t seem to find space for new construction. Inventory will continue to be tight.

If you need help building a strategy to sell or buy a home, call us at 602-456-9388.

A funny thing happened in July and it may affect the August market update.

Well, “funny” may not be funny for buyers.

Look at this chart of new listings that come on every day in July, compared over several years.

It’s hard to see, but there is a light blue line at the bottom of the grouping of lines, with the number 6,119. That represents the number of new listings in Maricopa county that came on in July.

Notice that the July 2019 number is at least 1,000 listings lower than the next closest line. So, we have had fewer listings coming on the market this July than any July since 2010.

I also turned on all years available in the system and it is the lowest July since 2001 –and there were fewer houses in the valley back then.

Now, when you look at just listings above $500,000, that difference disappears. But it is strong for homes under $500,000.

What does that mean? Should we be alarmed?

Well, we don’t know yet. (Sorry to those of you who like certainty. You won’t get it on this one.)

It could be a blip. This trend started in June and it could disappear in August. We need to watch it.

If it continues, then those of you who are thinking of listing your home should go ahead and list (especially those at or below $500,000). There is scarcity in the market in that case and it gives you an advantage. Further, people need homes, so they will be looking.

If you are a buyer, be patient, as it may take you a while to find what you need. Also, be ready to go see a house and write an offer immediately if you like the home.

There is still a scarcity in the market and this just happens.

NOTE! This dynamic does not seem to be happening in the CenPho historic zip codes. See the chart below. So, for these zip codes, the July listing numbers seem to be right in line with previous months.

So, if you need to build a strategy around selling or buying, please call us at 602-456-9388.