Last week, I shared details of the actual percentage of the increasing value of homes in the downtown Phoenix historic districts between January 2011 and October 2012. This week, I’ll open it up to CenPho, still focusing on the historic neighborhoods. You’ll find this very interesting and informative…

The bold numbers are the percecentage of change in those areas that follow:

No Change

I believe that we have not seen much change in these historic neighborhoods because they are so small and unique. We just have not seen much turnover in homes here.

Ashland Place Historic District
Hoover, Vernon and Ashland Avenues between Central Avenue and Third Street

Alvarado Historic District
Central Avenue, Oak Street, 3rd Street and Palm Lane in Phoenix
Note: I have a great listing at 140 E Coronado, directly behind the Phoenix art museum. This is a great, stable neighborhood.

East Alvarado Historic District
Central Ave., 3rd St., Oak St. and Roanoke Ave.,

East Evergreen Historic District
McDowell and Fillmore Sts., Central and 7th St.,

Up to 15% increase
This is generally the same as those areas noted above. This is a relatively small area and there is not a lot of turn-over.

La Hacienda Historic District
Thomas Rd. and Earll Dr. between 3rd St. and 7th St.

15% – 24.9% increase
The change in these areas is a result of some really nice renovations of historic homes. You are not seeing the huge increase in prices, as with those areas further down in this post because these areas remained surprisingly stable throughout the recession –at least by comparison. These areas prove my premise: that historic neighborhoods survive shocks better than other neighborhoods.

Campus Vista Historic District
Osborn to Thomas, 7th Avenue to 15th Avenue.

Cheery Lynn Historic District
Flower St, Earll Drive, Randolph Road, and 16th Street.

Country Club Manor
7th St. Osborn Rd and Thomas Rd

Del Norte Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Encanto Blvd, 17th Avenue to 15th Avenue

Encanto-Palmcroft Historic District
Encanto Bvd, McDowell Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Encanto Vista Historic District
Encanto Bvd, Thomas Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Fairview Place Historic District
15th Ave., McDowell Rd., 18th Ave., and Encanto Blvd

F.Q. Story Historic District
McDowell Rd., 7th Ave., Roosevelt St. and 17th Ave.,

Idylwilde Park Historic District
11th St and 12th St. Weldon Ave. and Fairmount Ave.

Margarita Place Historic District
15th Ave and 16th Ave along Edgemont Ave.

Medlock Place Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central and 7th Aves.

Melrose-Woodlea Historic Neighborhood
15th ave to 7th ave and Indian School to the canal

Oakland Historic District
Van Buren and Jefferson Sts. 7th and 15th Aves.

Pierson Place Historic District
Camelback and the Grand Canal Central and 7th Aves.

Woodland Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. and Van Buren and Fillmore St

Yaple Park Historic District
The Canal and Indian School Rd., 7th and 15th Aves.

25% – 34.9%
Willo saw some terrible price drops, but really started coming back in 2011. I believe a lot of this prices increases in Willo became apparent earlier than those shown far below.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Roosevelt Historic District
McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave.

Willo Historic District
Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rds.

35% or more increase
These areas really saw a huge dump in prices during the recession. The Coronado neighborhood, for example, was priced incredibly high on a per foot basis before the drop and they saw a huge downturn. Garfield neighborhood is increasing for other reasons –can you say “ASU expansion?” Garfield is going to be an important downtown neighborhood in the coming years and everybody is jumping in on it. I just hope that those who are jumping in are actually renovating the homes and not just acting as absentee landlords.

Brentwood Historic District
McDowell to the I-10, 16th Street to the 51

Coronado Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Coronado Road, 8th Street to 14th Street

Country Club Park Historic District
Thomas Road to Virginia Avenue, 8th Street to Dayton Street.

Earll Place Historic District
Earll Drive and the north side of Pinchot Ave between 16th and 18th st.

Garfield Historic District
7th St. 16th St. VanBuren St. and I-10

North Encanto Historic District
Osborn and Thomas Rds. 15th and 19th Aves.

Windsor Square Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central Ave. and 7th St.

We found out in part 2 that While Prices Are Rising in Central Phoenix in 2012, they’ve risen most dramatically under $150,000. The high end properties of $800,000 and upwards have increased in price, but not nearly as dramatically. (Before I jump-in, I want to again recognize Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to share their work from the Cromford Report which is mixed in with my take that follows.)

The monthly average price per square foot in greater Phoenix in this chart to the left is very broad. Obviously, not every home is going to be at $100 per square foot, especially in central Phoenix.

Jump your eyes down to this little blue square in the center of the next chart, which will come up later.

 I’m going to be putting everything into the historical context of that square, which is Non-Distressed homes between 2005 and mid-2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County.

In this next chart, below, which shows the price per square foot from 2001 to Aug 2012, try to ignore the $190 Close Encounters peak  and take a look at the far left line. That’s the 2001 price lines. They were basically at about $100/sf at that time. Again, this is for the greater Phoenix average per square foot.

Based on that, here’s my rule of thumb: “Did you buy your home around 2001 or 2002 or before that?” You’re probably going to be okay to sell now, because you’ve survived the worst of it. If you’re thinking, “Gosh, I could really sell my home now”, or if you know someone who’s thinking that, make sure you both take a look at your specific area, before making the leap.

I know. What a relief.

Do we want to get back to over $190 per square foot, to that place where the UFO’s are landing on our mountain of Devil’s Peak? Heck no, not anytime soon. What this long-term context tells you is we do have a little bit of ways to go still. This is a great way to look at this to tell whether people are potentially underwater or those who are likely to be okay.

Next up: Median Sales Price.

We’re back to the little blue square I mentioned earlier: people who are potentially undewater from the 2005 to mid 2009 range.

When you take this median sales price, for single-family homes, all the way across the board, you can see it’s pretty obvious that during those years, for those people who are non-distressed (which is when we saw the big bubble and crash) these are the people who have not sold yet.

They’re potentially underwater, we don’t know for sure, but they’re not considered distressed or late on their payments.

So what’s going to happen with all of those? Are they suddenly going to find themselves in the market? Say, a year from now, when the prices get a little bit better for some of those people?

That’s going to be something that you’re going to want to watch.

I love this next particular chart. This tells you how much growth we have and how much potential you have if you happen to be an investor.

The long-term timeline with just general growth, year over year, (taking into account population, prices) is going to keep up at a regular pace.

This is a kind of equilibrium with a pretty good number of houses for sale that people will want to buy. This long distance in this chart is great because however long it takes us to reach that point, there’s still the potential for you to either buy something as an investment, and get some return on that investment, or buy a home and know that you didn’t buy it above what it should be worth.

Next, let’s look at greater Phoenix wide and then we’ll drill down closer into some specific zip codes. This is encouraging stuff. Okay, so look at this section listed as under $200,000.

Look at the price and notice that price per square foot has gone up 33% since August 2011. That’s citywide.

Now hop down to the next chart and look at the similar thing for greater Phoenix, between $200,000 and $500,000.

Drill down between $200,000 and $300,000, for just these zip codes, look at this huge 14% growth!

This speaks to a premise  that I’ve been pushing for a very long time: in central Phoenix, especially around the light rail and historic neighborhoods, prices dropped the least and will come back the fastest.

This is something to keep in mind as density continues.

And $500,000 and $800,000, in the same areas in the same zip code?

Look at this 18% growth!

That’s from the lowest point to where we are right now, that’s a good place to stay.

$800,000-$1 million? See below: The growth is 5%. Again, that’s in the Camelback corridor area.

“Under Contract” homes is what this next chart is all about. We’ll end today’s brief on this. It offers a lot of insight.

If a house is under contract, you don’t know the price at which the house is under contract for. It’s private information. Let’s say you go to the multiple listing service and look at the sales price of the house and its $200,000. The next day, it says it’s “pending”. It still says $200,000 but that property could have a contract for $215,000 or $190,000. You just don’t know.

But MLS does because agents must report it

It’s in the system. They can’t tell you what it is. But they can report an aggregate.

So when you hear “Under contract. Legally average list price per square foot.” That means that on this date, 10/1/12, everything under contract was under contract for an average of $93.88 per square foot.

Those hosues aren’t going to close for 30 days, though. So, when you look at this chart and see that right now it’s $93.88 per square foot, that’s the amount that is going to be realized, most likely, in the market 30 or 40 days from now.

If you’re following this chart and you suddenly see this line turn a different direction, you have a very good indication that 30 days from now, that may be what the market is going to start to look like.

That’s as much of a crystal ball, as I think you are ever going to see.

The thing that’s impacting all of these numbers, especially in places like the Camelback corridor, and those other zip codes, is new-home sales recorded, as in “What are the homebuilders doing?”

Great Question. In part 4 of our Get Your Phx Market Briefing, we’ll find out that very thing…

In part 1, I ended with an argument I often hear from people after I describe what a “normal foreclosure market” looks like. There’s always going to be some percentage of people who should not have bought a house and now they’re upside down or late on payments.

The real interesting bit we can see is that there will still be some foreclosures and short sales coming on the market. The argument I hear some people say is:

All the banks were just holding onto their houses. They just hadn’t been listed yet. You’re not seeing them in the charts and graphs you’re using as evidence.

(Much of my briefing is based on Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. A huge thanks to Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to use their work at my presentation and share it here as well.)

To answer those naysayers, let’s look at the “REO” (which is another way of saying “foreclosed property”, not a band who heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend…). The REO then is where the bank has already repossessed the house and is putting it on the market directly. This chart below is REO and includes everything sold between 2007 and 2012. The big blue Pac-Man looking thing on this chart is sales sold through MLS; in other words, 131,000 homes.

(graph, above)
“Sold wholesale” means some big investor bought a bunch of homes at one time. According to the chart, there are only 961 in escrow. When people talk about where to find this mythical crop of homes held back by the bank, you would find them in “Not yet listed.” Well, that’s a whopping 3,047 –not what I would call a wave of foreclosures.

Supply is down, but it’s also increasing.

This is a very interesting thing. Look at this next graph. If you look at December 2010 (far left) all the way into the future, you see a huge drop in supply. Homes being sold by Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the tiny sliver on top in gray, are few and far between and get a ton of offers when they come on the market.

(graph above)
The last two colors on the chart are short sales (light blue) and normal sales (darker blue).

You can see from this same graph that things are moving back up a little. Does that mean that we’re going to get back up to 35,000? No, because you’d have to have the same kind of event that put us into the recession to get back up to those numbers.

Let’s take that same thing, single family residential inventory, and look at the distressed sales.

It’s declined 77%.

That’s in terms of the active distressed listings. For those who don’t know, AWC means ‘Active With Contingencies’. Look at that chart again. See how it’s called “Distressed SFR Inventory (Excluding AWC)”? This means someone has an accepted offer on a short sale, but they’re waiting for their lender to say it’s okay to precede and close on that property. Let’s break it down a bit.

Look at the far right side of the same chart. There are 1,923 Active Distressed homes. It’s a huge decline. But this is the interesting part. Notice the top right corner of the graph, where it breaks down the percentages of the different price ranges listed.

Rather than do each price point, one at a time, let’s look at the combined total, the 81% of homes that are under $300,000. If you make another chart and take out the HUD homes, the REO’s, and the short sales, and compare those to where the normal sales have been…

…there’s basically no change since November 2011.

So what does this U-shaped area represent? I’m speculating here, but in my professional opinion, the normal sales coming back on the market comprise two types of sales: A) People who bought before 2003 or 2004 (so they are able to sell their house, get their money back, maybe make a little bit of money); or B) People who bought a house in 2008 or 2009—which was my advice to people at that time—and now they flipped it, or renovated it and put it back in the market. Those people are adding to the inventory.

The rebounding economy and stronger job numbers, plus incredibly cheap houses, are why–in this next graph–we went from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes. By “month supply of homes”, what is meant is that if you shut off the tap and prevented homes from being put on the market, how many months would it take to clear out what’s on there? In this case, it would take us one month to get from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes.

This is more drastic than, say, above $1 million homes, but all of this brings me to one point: single family homes that are affordable for most working families will continue to increase, in price and in value, in 2013. That’s even with the increase in inventory that we’ve seen here at the end of 2012.

Prices are rising. This is pretty obvious. You’ve probably heard it in the news. What wasn’t reported on the news, however, is that the rising prices in the last year are only happening at the low ends, under $150,000; far more than they’ve occurred at the high ends. Where’s my evidence? What do I draw from this conclusion? What should you conclude from it?

Stay tuned for Get Your PHX Market Briefing, part 3 where we’ll find out!

If you would like to be part of a future PHX Market Briefing, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

JUMP TO PART 3 OF THE MARKET BRIEFING HERE.

If you owe a debt to someone and they cancel or forgive that debt, the canceled amount may be taxable. Same goes for mortgage debts. Hence, the creation in 2007 of the Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Relief Act. The IRS explains the concept surprisingly well. This act expires in 96 days, the end of this year, after the holidays; much sooner than you realize.

People have been opining this whole year about the possible extension of the $1 billion mortgage debt forgiveness relief provision at the end of the year. I’ve been hearing the following:

“Should I short sell before the end of the year?”

“Can I count on the hopeful January 1 extension?”

“The $1 billion mortgage debt relief provision allows me to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven by my lender, but it expires at the end of the year! My chance to short sell and still seek tax relief is disappearing quickly!”

“But I hear these holiday months aren’t as slow as one might think. Oh, no! I’m almost out of time to avoid the tax repercussions of selling my home short!”

Let’s be clear on what the act does.

The 2007 Mortgage Debt Relief Act allows taxpayers to exclude up to $2 million of forgiven debt on their principal residence in calendar years 2007 through 2012. With one caveat: The discharge of debt must be directly related to the decline in the residence’s value or in the financial condition of the taxpayer.

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act was originally going to expire at the end of 2010, but lawmakers decided to extend it until the end of 2012. If it does expire, anyone who receives mortgage forgiveness on day one of 2013, or after that, will have to face paying income tax on a forgiven debt.

Isn’t it in the President’s budget?
Didn’t it pass the committee level in the Senate?

Yes/But… We don’t know the outcome of the election in November and nothing is moving in Congress for the next 6 weeks. This time bomb very likely won’t be voted on before the end of the year, what with their attention consumed with the nation’s budget crisis.

Furthermore, given that it takes 3 to 6 months to close on a short sale…Are you really willing to take the risk that the act will be extended?

What’s the bottom line?

List now and be more certain that you will avoid that tax liability. I strongly advise you consult with a tax attorney!

[referee photo: compujeremy] [house photo: surprise truck]

Houses are being scooped up really quickly right now.  This is no exaggeration: good homes are selling within 24-48 hours now. I’ve seen how frustrating it’s been for some of my clients when they don’t get the properties they offered on.

So… Here are five things that I am asking my clients to do to increase there chances of getting the property that they want. (There are other things, but I can’t give away all my trade secrets!)

1.  Check MLS in the evening, rather than the morning.

Most agents don’t get up early and post new listings. They do it at night. I try to check for new listings in the evening for this reason. If you see something you like, shoot your Realtor an email.

2.   Look closely at the neighborhood on the Internet before visiting the property.

If you are looking at one property in a neighborhood you don’t like, you might miss another property that you do like. So, let’s use the Internet to our advantage. Type the address of the property in to Google Street View and have a look around. We agents already have an opinion of the neighborhoods that we know. But we can’t always predict what you like.

3.  View the property within hours of identifying it, not days.

My “Get Your PHX Team” is adapting to the market conditions. When a property comes on that one of my clients wants to see, the member of our team who is available immediately will try to get them in to see the property, quickly.

4. Have your prequalifcation letter or proof of funds ready.

Realtors cannot show properties unless the buyer has all their financing sorted out. In this market, we need to make decisions in hours. Further, sellers want to verify the buyer’s purchase method. So, everything has to be ready to go.

5. Print/Scan/Fax

These days, we are allowed to sign contracts, then scan or fax them. For this reason, I have my team carry blank contracts to a property in case a buyer wants to make the offer immediately. However, if we don’t write a contract on the spot, we may need the buyer to print/sign/return documents quickly. If a buyer doesn’t have this capability at their office or home, it’s important for them to let us know before we view properties.

The rush that we Realtors feel in this market is frustrating. We understand that nobody likes to feel pressured. Yet, we want the buyer to get what they need and we sincerely appreciate their patience and accommodations. By doing these five things, we are more competitive in getting buyers the property they want.

[image: woodleywonderworks]

You may have seen my previous stories about the effort to put historic trollies on Grand Avenue as an economic development project. This low-cost project would help encourage new businesses along Grand Ave between Van Buren and Roosevelt –a trend that is already under way, but which could quicken and bring new income to Phoenix.

Since writing these stories, I joined the Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) board and we are working to get recognition of the great return on investment this represents.

It came to my attention this last week that the folks at the Trolley Museum, where they house the historic trollies which we hope to use on Grand Ave., have received a proposal from a neighboring city to take our trollies and add them to their local museum.

From what I am hearing, the Phoenix Trolley Museum folks, not getting a particularly warm feeling from City of Phoenix, are seriously considering taking this other museum up on their offer. From what I hear, some in the City really want to take back the trolley museum building at Margaret T. Hance Park so they can use it for other things. They have gone so far as to encourage the Trolly Museum to move, but they have not provided a viable place for them to go.

The sad part is that there is a very viable option, which the Museum folks and GARP founder Robert Graham have been advocating for: put the trolly museum on Grand Ave., along with an accompanying trolly line that will encourage new business on Grand.

Thus their frustration.

Here is my concern: if the Trolley Museum moves to some other city, it will be even more difficult to see the GARP idea through and it will represent yet another Phoenix stab at historic preservation. Even sadder is the fact that the city does not need to lay out much money to make this happen. They just need to partner on proposals to the federal government for transportation dollars, which can be used for this purpose.

The estimated cost to build the infrastructure, outfit a new museum on grand and operate the system: $10 million. I believe that the resulting new home sales, infill development and business starts along grand will be worth ten times that.

Please contact your city councilmen and let them know that you support the Grand Avenue Rail Project.

Every so often I like to do a reminder on credit. It’s kinda important, ya know.

So, your credit score, also called a FICO score, is a number based on the information in your credit file that shows how likely you are to pay a loan back on time. You’ll want your number to be higher, rather than lower, because that show’s you’re  less risky (not to be confused with risqué).

Consumers with scores above 700 are usually charged pretty low rates, but those with scores above 760 are charged the lowest rates. So, what should you do if you have less than stellar credit? Jeannie Bolger at Nova Home Loans has come to the rescue with some of her top tips for improving your credit score.

PAY YOUR BILLS ON TIME
According to Jeannie, “The best way to raise your credit score is to develop a positive history of using credit to outweigh the old, bad credit history.”  If you’ve made any late payments, establishing or re-establishing a good track record of making timely payments will raise your score.

KEEP YOUR BALANCES LOW
Jeannie also suggests that you keep your current credit card balance at 30% or less than the maximum credit limit. High outstanding debt can affect your score and maxing out your credit cards could lower your average score by as much as 70 points.

OPT OUT
Visit www.optoutprescreen.com to tell the three major credit bureaus (Experian, Equifax and TransUnion) to stop selling your credit history. You’ll be able to opt of “pre-approved” credit card offers for a period of five years or indefinitely.

GET A SECURED CREDIT CARD
A secured credit card (one that requires you to make a deposit against the card’s credit limit) is a great way to develop a positive credit history. Jeannie cautions that you should not max it out. Instead, maintain a very small balance each month and be sure that the card reports to all three credit bureaus.

GET IT IN WRITING
If you’re paying off an old collection or charge-off, speak to the creditor about removing derogatory information on your credit report in exchange for payment. And don’t forget to get it in writing.

Jeannie Bolger can be reached at Nova Home Loans at jeannieb@novahomeloans.com or (602) 550-8674

Phoenix homeowners have kept a close watch on the housing market with a certain air of disappointment. Chances are they had high hopes for their homes. For most people the idea behind home ownership is to buy a home, live there for as long as the location and characteristics of the home suit their lifestyles, and sell the home years down the line while pocketing a little extra built-up equity — or using it to buy a better home. Time is running out to short sale and avoid possible tax liability.

Prices on Downtown Phoenix homes have been steadily rising for the past year. When inventory goes down, prices go up (you probably learned that in your high school econ class) But, that’s not bound to last. Home builders are ramping up quickly. So, the rising prices will level out a little later this year.  People are buying in the late spring and summer for job relocations and to close in time to get kids in to new schools, etc.

So if your looking to sell your home, now’s the time. I truly enjoy helping people make smart real estate decisions. Call today

Here’s a little more background: Since 2007, the Mortgage Debt Relief Act has allowed owners selling their homes through a short sale to do so without having to pay tax on the amount their mortgage holders forgave them. In previous days the money that the bank forgave on the loan would have been considered by the IRS as some sort of income on which you must pay taxes!

That will end December 31, 2012, giving homeowners until the end of this year to get out from under their debt without facing tax consequences.

Real estate brokers and agents specializing in the listing and sale of short sales have become the busiest in the industry. The moral here is that if you are going to do a short sale, do it now.  While most short sales take 3-4 months, some can take longer.  You do not want to be sweating out a December 31st closing.

Call us today at 602-456-9388 and we can make it happen for you!

Short sales sound worse than they are.

Two years ago they took a lot longer and confused many more people (agents and lenders, alike). Now the systems are in place to make these transactions close more smoothly.

Even more important, if you qualify for the HAFA Program, you could get up to $4,500 for short selling your home!

A short sale is where the seller owes the bank more than than the property is worth. The term “short sale” literally means that the property is being sold “short” of what the seller owes the bank. In a short sale transaction the bank must agree to accept less money than what the seller owes and agree to release all liens on the property so that the property can be sold.

If you’re thinking about short selling your home there are a few short steps to the process:

1. Find an Attorney to speak to about your short sale. This shouldn’t cost you a lot of money. You can usually get an initial consultation for about $250. You DON’T need to have an attorney negotiate with the bank for you. If you have a tax attorney or CPA, speak with him or her, too!

2. Get your Property Listed. Listing your property with a seller with short sale knowledge is key to a smooth transaction. This is where I come in.

3. Find a Buyer. You should know that the average “days on market” are much, much lower now than they were even six months ago. This really should not take us long.

4. Send a contract to your lender along with proper documentation. We’ll work with you to make sure all the paperwork is in order for quicker approval. This is the part of the process that takes the longest. But I can take much of the pain out of this.

5. Get Approval and Close Escrow. This part goes largely the way normal sales go –inspection, appraisal, close of escrow.