The average website visitor reads from a screen at 180 words/minute. I’ve already used 15, so I better get to the point of the matter. Which is this:

The only thing that really affects our supply and demand of homes in Maricopa County is people going out of, and people coming in to, our County. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report

That’s right, folks. Migration.

There used to be other things that affected supply and demand (and we’ll get to those in part 2 of this market analysis) but not any more. Some of you are looking to buy. Some are looking to sell. After you hear what I have to share with you, you may want to rethink your plans. Or, you may find your plans are confirmed by what you learn.

Some of you may want evidence that what I’m about to tell you is certifiable and trustworthy. I’ll tell you. It’s because it comes from The Cromford Report. For those who’ve not been following my blog posts for long, you don’t know how much I admire this report. If The Cromford Report were touring like The Grateful Dead or Phish, I’d follow them around. If Ben & Jerry’s were looking for a new flavor, I’d suggest they call it ‘Cromford’. Don’t just take my word for it. Listen to what Tina Timboer, the absolute Guru of all things Cromford, has to say:

Prices will continue to go up in Maricopa County for the foreseeable future.

How do we know this? Because Michael Orr, the founder of The Cromford Report is an Oxford educated mathematician. Because he is the Director for the Real Estate Theory and Practice of ASU. Because he personally cleans up all the public record data for ASU’s Real Estate department. Because The Cromford Report does not buy/sell property, but is solely an analytical firm. Michael Orr puts together all the data at The Cromford Report. Nobody knows the real estate market better than Orr.

Let’s get back to supply and demand. You’ve been hearing a lot about interest rates and you want to know what the long-term trend will be? How will interest rates affect buying/selling homes? Next week, I’ll share what Tina had to say about the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County and how we know that prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. Yes, because Michael Orr said so, but more importantly, it’s why he says so.

Trust me, you’ll nod your head and think, “That makes perfect sense. I should look at the macro view more frequently before I hear the news tell me the Case–Shiller Home Price Index says homes are selling for X amount nationwide. Which is just like saying the average temperature in the country is 76 degrees, but golly it’s 110 degrees in Phoenix!”

Exactly. Come back next week to hear what the supply and demand “temperature” really is in Phoenix and why.

To buy or sell, informed and with confidence, give me a call or email me at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com

  [migration photo:  Billtacular]  

“Whipeeeeeeee!”

              or

“Whoaaaaaaaa!”

Every square in this rainbow slide (not the one on the left, though that does look like fun. I mean every square in the image below) represents a month—January, February, March—all going up.

This covers central phoenix and downtown zip codes, historic and older neighborhoods. One vertical stack of those boxes adds up to one year. See how we’ve dropped quite precipitously:  from 7,500 (in 2010) to 5,800 (March, 2013). In 2008 to 2010 a lot of those were short sales and foreclosures. You can shrink inventory, but the demand is still there and what happens? The price goes up.

Same three-month moving average

In this next slide is the average of all three months going back in time. In this way you keep from getting a bunch of blips that aren’t really accurate. See in those downtown zip codes how we’ve gone from $117 in September 2012 to now at $144 per square foot. Let’s look at year to year. March 2012: $105 to $144. That’s a big jump. Now the three month moving average is going to be more extreme than 12-months, because we’re averaging prices today and 12 months ago. The line is smoother and more conservative.

See from March 2012 it went from $96 to $149 per square foot. This $123 represents the average price for this day and the three months before. So you’re seeing that upward trend. Now, in downtown Scottsdale, we’re starting at higher prices.

Follow me on this:

In March 2004—in the recent comparisons slide, below—the monthly average price per square foot was $115. By the end of 2004 it was $131, a 16% increase. In March 2013, it was at $114, with very similar conditions. We started in January 2013 at $108.

Do we think the price can get to a similar 16% increase point by the end of 2013? This increase from $108 to $114/$116 is a very similar line. So for 2013, yes, I think we’re anywhere in a 16% – 20% price increase, just like 2004. I think we could very easily see average prices by the end of this year, somewhere between $125 and $130.

Now let’s take that same 15% – 20% increase—seen here in this next slide of this more-conservative 12-month moving average price per square foot—and apply it county wide to only Phoenix and Scottsdale, keeping in mind the trend-line I talked about in this post.

Phoenix was on a 12-month moving average in March of this year, sitting at $129 price per square foot (for those same zip codes). If you apply that same 15% – 20% increase, you’re looking at $140 – $146 by the end of this year. Apply that same 15% – 20% increase to the Scottsdale area, starting at $156 for the 12-month moving average, you’re looking at $170 to $175 by year’s end.

I think it’s very reasonable to say that we’re going to be there by the end of 2013.

Let’s compare visually

This here, in this next slide/image is for the whole county and is just by way of an illustration. 2004 (the blue line) and 2012 (the purple line) looked a lot the same in terms of path upward. At the end of March, we were about to surpass the same place we were in 2004.

Attention. Attention. Here ye the Town Criers.

Every few weeks, it seems, we hear a lot in the news about how they’re breaking new ground and there is all these new developments. Each one of those dots in the chart represents a month. In the month of Jan, Feb 2007 we built 4,000 houses. Over the course of over 2006, we built something like 60,000 homes. It was insane. They were crappy, throw-‘em-up houses. And now the news loves to proclaim:

Look! We’re building again!

But the number is tiny. It’s about 250 – 300 homes.

This is important to Central Phoenix for a couple reasons: These new builds are out in the fringes of Phoenix, so you’re not adding to central Phoenix inventory. Also, they’d have to build a lot more of these homes on the fringes for it to have any impact on prices in central Phoenix.

I don’t want to list ‘cause it’s going to be worth so much more a year from now.

But what happens if everyone holds off from selling? People will stop looking and prices go up.

Urban Density: Take away

• Investors –If you want to invest in something, get your mind around the fact that you’re more likely to hold it than flip it and get a better price for it; because the margin’s not there or you’re not going to get cash flow because you paid so much for that thing to begin with and nobody’s going to pay that much rent.

• Sellers –Watch for possible price plateau during the summer. With these price increases, don’t just think I’m gonna hold a year to sell and get this higher price, that’s not necessarily so. Also, with these price increases, people who are thinking this, don’t be so certain, because either people stop buying, or people are prices out of the market, or a lot more people say, “Look the prices are there, go, go, go!” I don’t think you can be that confident for a year or even 9 months from now.

• Urban Cores – are in need of urban infill. Detached residential and condos are coming in the burbs, but we need more rooftops centrally.

• Prices – They’re not necessarily a result of heavy demand, because there’s no inventory coming up the way we thought it would.

Be ye Investor, Seller, Buyer, or Town Crier, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com. I’ll get it done.

[slide image: Trish_Gee88]

Are they just uninformed people? Those who declare “The Bubble is coming! The Bubble is coming!”? We know we’re not in a bubble, based on the first four parts of this series, but where do the voices of doom come from?

I’ll tell you something: earlier this year, before I sat down and took a good hard look at the facts and figures, before I started laying the foundation for my market analysis briefing (upon which this series is based), before I did all, I’ve got a tell you I was worried that we were getting into minor-bubble land.

But Get Your PHX/Cromford Report team mate Tina Tamboer talked me off that ledge.

People are seeing agents listing properties at irrationally high prices. This doesn’t necessarily mean we are in a bubble. What it means is: agents are listing properties at irrationally high prices just because their clients want them to go fishing for a higher price.

Their buyers are telling them, “I want you to list it here, at this amount.”
Their agents may tell them, “Uh, that’s a little high for the comps.”
And the seller says, “No. I want to list it here.”

Agents advise, but can ultimately only do what they’re told. If a client wants to list it high, you list it high. Other people see that pricing, then they try to list it high, etc.

Remember I said in the summer things slowdown in terms of sales?

I’ve indicated in green lines, below, the first and second quarters between 2001 and 2013. Right now, we’re just hanging out close to our long-term average.

Which means what, exactly?

This year, watch for prices to go up for the first two quarters [like they always do]. People will be listing furiously. You still are not going to see the number of listings you saw during the bubble. When you get into the summer, at the beginning of that third-quarter, and all the way through the third quarter, you’re not going to see a slump, but a plateau.  ~ Tina Tamboer, Get Your Phx/Cromford Report

People go on vacation and fewer people list. Glance back to all those sections with the green lines. Note that regardless of the severity or abundance of sales, Q1 and Q2 sales always increase, followed by a plateau. So here’s the take away: if you are thinking of listing, it is better to list it and sell in the first two quarters.

Right now, we’re just at the beginning of the second quarter. You still have just shy of three full months. If you put a property on right now, chances are – unless you’re priced way above market – you’re going to get your house sold in a matter of weeks. If it’s a nice, clean property in central Phoenix and most parts of town, you’re going to sell pretty quickly.

Once you get to the summer, you might see activity slowdown, and prices fall back a little bit.

Do you really want to risk that?

When you get into the end of the year, what happens? Look back up to the chart again at Q4 over the years. You’ll see that end of the year home selling is not as good as beginning of the year. Why? Because in October, November and December, people are beginning to think about holidays, which is why sales slowdown at the end of the year. The conclusion is the same: the best time of the year to sell your home is in the first two quarters.

The first quarter of 2013 ended a week ago. You’ve got less than one quarter left.
If you’re thinking of getting your home out there, talk to me.
We’ll get it out there.

Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com

[megaphone man: Shrieking Tree ]

In Part 1 of my “Riding the Rollercoaster” post from last week, I hope I made it clear what a normal market looks like, why it’s  important to remember that the market is a function of supply and demand, and why price is a trailing factor running two months behind the market.

A person’s natural question when they learn these things is “Oh, is this another bubble?”

Now, we’re going to show you why we don’t think it’s a bubble.

We think we are  normalizing.

Don’t Burst My Bubble

Here’s evidence that we’re not in a bubble. Below is a graph of distressed sales in percentages for Maricopa County.

• The grey background is all the sales from the Multi Listing Sales Data.
• “Lender owned” is in red. See how from 2010 through 2012 it’s going down, down, down. This red line is a percentage of sales, relative to the orange and green lines. Add up each point on a different colored line and you get 100% of sales.
• “Short sale” is in orange. See how it’s been fluttering pretty steadily up and down since 2001 and then in Dec 2012, it drops, drops?
• “HUD” in blue has always been around 3% or so since 2001. Really consistent, regardless of recession activity.
• “Traditional Sale” is in green. Just a nice, even climb, upward.

So as two of these have been declining—Lender Owned, since 2010; Short Sales, since Mid-2012—and with HUD Sales always at regular levels, only Traditional Sales are going up.

On average, over the long term were getting back to the point where a certain percentage is always going to be foreclosures. Before this pre-recession bubble, nobody knew what a short sale was. Agents didn’t know what to do with them; they didn’t even know how to process them. The vast majority of agents never had to deal with them before.

Appreciation by Transaction Type

This next chart shows the monthly average sales price per square foot. At the far left of the blue line is December 2009 when we were at $123.70 per square foot. So even though we have more properties coming on the market, which we know from the previous chart and its evidence of increasing Traditional Sales,

It’s not like you’re seeing this radical push up in price, says Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter (Get Your PHX Team/Cromford Report)

What Tina means by this is that you have more things on the market that are normal. If this were a bubble you’d look at all the properties and you’d see them all go up in price. Here, you’re seeing more come on the market, but they’re still not up in price. They’re at the same price per square foot.

Maricopa County Median Home Sales Prices

The faint blue dashed line is the long-term trend line. Back in January 2001, at the far left, the median home sales price for Maricopa County was $139,500. The dashed long-term trend line continues upward to the right. If we had a forever normal market, you’ll always see this nice long slide upward. At my last market analysis gathering on March 21, Tina showed us what happened in the bubble and why.

Look at the spike up on the left of the Matterhorn shape. Why did it go up like this? You had 100% financing, people were getting cash back from their mortgages, and you have all these schemes.

And then there was that one day when somebody couldn’t sell their house for more than they thought they would. And then their neighbor, who had all this extra money taken out of their house, suddenly found that their house wasn’t worth anything, and then there was Wall Street, which didn’t help, and then it all started to tumble apart.

So now track your eyes at the tipping point of that mountain to the right, where in 2007 you had foreclosures, people couldn’t sell houses, nobody could get financing to buy up the houses that were sitting there, and you had unemployment. So that’s when we hit that lowest, lowest point in January 2009. The lift in the line between the bottom of January 2009 and that first little peak is when people were trying to get that first time home buyer’s tax credit. Then it dropped again. That’s the best effect we could do with that tax credit.

Then the lowest median sales price that we had was $123,150 in March 2011. Right now, April 2013, we’re at $180,000. You can see that on the far right of the graph. See how we’ve had a 23% increase in the median home sale prices since March 2011?

The Skinny.

If we were in pace with that long-term dashed trend line of a normally rising market, we’d be at the $200,000 mark. But because we’re at the $180,000 mark, this means that we still have some time here. The point is that we’re still $20,000 under a normal median sales price.

We’re not at a bubble yet.

But the real kicker is this:  …and I’m going to show you that very thing next week.

In the meantime, if you want to sell or buy, please give me a call  (602) 456-9388 or find me at ken@getyourphx.com

Let’s talk about home sales trends, shall we? I hate to say I told you so (okay, maybe I don’t…), but According to Data Reporters Ryan Konig and Matt Dempsey at The Arizona Republic, the downtown Phoenix historic districts in 2012 saw a significant increase in median sales prices for single-family houses.

Which downtown Phoenix historic district areas  have seen the greatest increase between 2011 and 2012?

The Roosevelt District
Roughly surrounded by McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave. in Phoenix. The shape of this district is like a perfect box.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Villa Verde Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. Encanto Blvd. and Monte Vista

Willo Neighborhood
This historic distric is located direct above the Roosevel Historic District. It’s roughly surrounded by Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rd.

So check this out. Those four histroic neighborhoods have seen a 25% to 34.9% increase in the median housing prices since 2011! Meanwhile, the east side of central, literally across the street, has seen how much incrase in home prices since 2011? Try zero.

The orange area is the sweet spot of this increase in prices for three of the historic neighborhoods: Willo, Los Olivos, and Roosevelt. Villa Verde is at the NW corner 19th ave/Grand ave.  It’s the same area I’ve been telling people for some time now not to ignore–“because there’s some good stuff going on there, stuff that’s going to explode in 2012″. Of course, I’ve been saying since late 2009 that CenPho is gearing up for a serious rebound.

So, I can’t read the future or anything. Don’t come asking me about which boxer to bet on. But I have a really good nose for where things are going in CenPho.

If you’re a buyer who wants to know about those cool little hidden places that my expertise tells me are going to do well, come talk to me. If you’re a seller, now is the time to think seriously about selling.

In future posts coming down the Get Your PHX pipline in 2013, I’m going to be tracking certain areas in Central Phoenix for you; for example, historic light-rail adjacent areas, and let you in on what’s happening to median home values  in these areas. It’s going to be an exciting year, 2013. Keep your ear to Get Your PHX and I’ll do my best to keep you in the know.

Kenneth “Ken” Clark
REALTOR(r)
At Your Service!
HomeSmart
(602) 456-9388
Ken@GetYourPHX.com

While some of you will understand instantly what this post’s subject title means, others will get lost along the way if we don’t clarify some road signs.

That ‘FHA Anti-Flipping Rule Waiver’ stop sign is good through ‘Dec 31, 2012’. No California-stops, please. Thank you.

Before moving forward, let’s make sure we all understand the legal definition of “Property Flipping”:

A practice whereby a property recently acquired is resold for a considerable profit with an artificially inflated value.” ~ Housing and Urban Development / Fair Housing Administration (HUD/FSA)

(And for those who think flipping requires anything less than deep pockets and lots of hard work, the creator and star of A&E’s reality show, “Flip This House” has some great insight into the inevitable question: Is house-flipping as easy as it looks on TV?)

The stop sign was put in on February 1, 2010 by HUD/FHA. Before that, there was one of these:

What that meant was that prior to the February 1, 2010, HUD/FHA didn’t allow a home buyer to use an FHA loan when purchasing a home from an investor who bought the home, did repairs and renovations, then listed it for sale within ninety days of the original acquisition date. If you were a buyer with an FHA loan, you had to wait until the 91st day to make an offer on a flipped home sold by an investor.

This prompted investors to stay away from HUD owned homes, which had the kind of negative effects we’ve all seen with REO’s (bank owned homes) being abandoned for long periods of time, leading to vandalism, squatters, and reflecting poorly on the surrounding community. The rule was originally supposed to expire in Feb 2010, but with so many houses distressed and foreclosed the FHA waived the rule (video) to encourage home buying until Dec 31, 2012.

Because of the FHA 90-day flip waiver extension (full PDF guidelines), investors can now accept offers from FHA buyers within the first 90 days.

This has been an important extension because the goal of ‘house flipping’ is (of course) to sell the home as fast as possible and for as much as possible. This helps to stabilize home prices by allowing home investors to purchase HUD or bank-owned houses and sell them quicker, raise housing prices faster, removing all the negative effects of abandoned homes, and therefore turn the housing market around sooner.

Since the original waiver went into effect on February 1, 2010, FHA has insured nearly 42,000 mortgages worth more than $7 billion on properties resold within 90 days of acquisition.” ~ HUD.gov

Come Jan 1, 2013…

What lies ahead for the U.S. Housing Market…?

What about closer to home, say Central Phoenix? I’ve been writing about that very thing over the last couple months in my series ‘Get Your PHX Market Briefing’ based on my expertise in this area and with invaluable input from Mike Orr at The Cromford Report.

If you would like to be part of a future ‘Get Your PHX Market Briefing’, please contact me at 602-456-9388 or feel free to email me.

Two weeks ago, Lyssa Hall, Senior Landscape Architect for Parks Development at Parks and Recreation told me about the Final Report on Greening America’s Capitals: Lower Grand Avenue, Phoenix (PDF).

The report provides short, mid and long term strategies for the redevelopment of Lower Grand Avenue into a vibrant corridor.

Here is a major development: it mentions a possible street car or trolley in the future. That is a HUGE win for the Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) which I wrote about a few weeks ago as being in danger of losing its Phoenix support when a neighboring city received a proposal to take our trollies and add them to their local museum.

The mention of the possible trolley in the Greening on Lower Grand report is not an endorsement by the city, but I believe that the city needs to get behind this economic development project.

I joined the non-profit Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) board shortly after it was first proposed and we are working to get recognition of what a great return on investment this represents. If funded, it would mean that you could ride the modern light rail in from the burbs, jump on the old Trolley and visit all the galleries and sites that will inevitably populate Grand Ave.

But, it is less about transportation than it is about what happens when you have a feature like this in an area like Grand. If you look at the buildings along Grand, most of them were built when Grand was THE shopping street in Phoenix. They are close to the road, the sidewalks are wide. Basically, the architectural environment is in place for new businesses to spring up. Behind those buildings are hundreds of old bungalows that have been largely neglected. A project like this will encourage historic renovation with the fervor that we saw around the light rail line recently.

That represents more dollars in the local economy, new businesses and higher value homes. All from a 1.5 mile trolley line.

And, who knows? That short trolley line could eventually make its way all the way around downtown. This is just a start.

Now, that’s economic development.

Now, as for the process:

It is the Parks and Recreation Department’s mission to be the best Parks Development Division in the nation. To this end, public meetings “community design workshops” were held over three days in Feb and March, put on by the Grand Avenue Merchant Association (GAMA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The result of those meetings was finalized on September 10 by the Environmental Protection Agency and can be found in this Final Report:

The Streets Transportation Department will be presenting the findings from the workshop and report at the Parks, Arts, Families and Seniors Subcommittee on Oct 9th at 10am in Phoenix City Hall, assemble room A. If you are unable to attend the subcommittee meeting, they will be televised and archived for viewing.  

The estimated cost to build the trolley infrastructure, outfit a new museum on grand and operate the system: $10 million. I’ve heard transportation planners say $50. I think that is high for 150 year old technology.

Regardless, believe that the resulting new home sales, infill development and business starts along grand will be worth ten times that. Please contact your city councilmen and let them know that you support the Grand Avenue Rail Project.

As the summer begins to tease us with signs of fading out–the sky is overcast and the rain is supposed to continue for the next week or so, I find myself thinking about the end of the year. Specifically, I think about how the older realtors always talk about the “slow months” –November through January.

Now, I’m no old hand, but I’m not that new and I can tell you that last Halloween through New Year’s was all work for me in the real estate business.

As the story goes, people stop buying or selling houses because the holidays just creep up on them and they get distracted. The common wisdom says that the market slows down after the summer and then maybe you may be able to negotiate a better deal during the holidays and Christmas. But that has not been the case the last two years.

If you look at previous years (see below), you will see that this is generally true; especially around Thanksgiving. In the first chart below you will see the last nine years. Some of them drop off drastically, but come back around February. In the second chart you will see 2004 and 2005 compared to 2010 and 2011. In ’10 and ’11 there was a little drop around November, but then we just picked right up again.

In other words, don’t assume that the end of the year is going to be slow!

The take away?

First: Don’t assume the end of the year is going to be slow. Whether you are selling or buying, take advantage of the active market.

Second, it’s been hectic the last two years. We have every reason to believe it’s going to be hectic this year, too.

And by the way, if you’re thinking to short sale, you’re running out of time if you want to avoid the tax repercussions of selling your home short. Please see this article and learn how the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act allows you to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven by your lender. This act runs out at the end of this year.

Houses are being scooped up really quickly right now.  This is no exaggeration: good homes are selling within 24-48 hours now. I’ve seen how frustrating it’s been for some of my clients when they don’t get the properties they offered on.

So… Here are five things that I am asking my clients to do to increase there chances of getting the property that they want. (There are other things, but I can’t give away all my trade secrets!)

1.  Check MLS in the evening, rather than the morning.

Most agents don’t get up early and post new listings. They do it at night. I try to check for new listings in the evening for this reason. If you see something you like, shoot your Realtor an email.

2.   Look closely at the neighborhood on the Internet before visiting the property.

If you are looking at one property in a neighborhood you don’t like, you might miss another property that you do like. So, let’s use the Internet to our advantage. Type the address of the property in to Google Street View and have a look around. We agents already have an opinion of the neighborhoods that we know. But we can’t always predict what you like.

3.  View the property within hours of identifying it, not days.

My “Get Your PHX Team” is adapting to the market conditions. When a property comes on that one of my clients wants to see, the member of our team who is available immediately will try to get them in to see the property, quickly.

4. Have your prequalifcation letter or proof of funds ready.

Realtors cannot show properties unless the buyer has all their financing sorted out. In this market, we need to make decisions in hours. Further, sellers want to verify the buyer’s purchase method. So, everything has to be ready to go.

5. Print/Scan/Fax

These days, we are allowed to sign contracts, then scan or fax them. For this reason, I have my team carry blank contracts to a property in case a buyer wants to make the offer immediately. However, if we don’t write a contract on the spot, we may need the buyer to print/sign/return documents quickly. If a buyer doesn’t have this capability at their office or home, it’s important for them to let us know before we view properties.

The rush that we Realtors feel in this market is frustrating. We understand that nobody likes to feel pressured. Yet, we want the buyer to get what they need and we sincerely appreciate their patience and accommodations. By doing these five things, we are more competitive in getting buyers the property they want.

[image: woodleywonderworks]

Not to be confused with the Forces of Darkness or The Force–though the definition may not be as far off as you might think–to “Countervail” is, according to Mr. Webster, “to exert force against an opposing and often bad or harmful force or influence”.

The Countervailing Forces I’m referring to are the interest rates of homes for sale. Specifically, we want to look at the quite low interest rates currently in play and the opposing force of “just slightly increased interest rates, like something as slight as 1/2 a percent”.

I know what some of you are thinking. Aren’t opposing forces supposed to be opposites? Extreme opposites, especially? Not necessarily.

Let me show you why even a small percentage is enough to separate the good, from the bad and the ugly.

On one side of the ledger are those who argue that home prices are going up. It’s true. I mean, I see how prices seem to be going up. What I don’t see is where inventory is coming into the market. What about Shadow Inventory, you say? There is no Shadow Inventory.

And anything that is added to the inventory of homes for sale is on the edges of town, out where home builders are going in. The point here is that these new homes are not in the sub-burbs.

On the other side of the ledger are those who stress that we don’t know how long interest rates will stay as low as they are right now.

Those are the two groups of people on either side of the fence. This is where the countervailing forces of interest rates–the rates now vs. the slightly increased rates of the future–comes in.

When the interest rate goes up even one-half of one percent, you lose a noteworthy amount of your home’s buying power. If you decide to wait and sell your house later, when the interest rates go up, the risk is that buyers will not be able to get the rate they are getting today.

Here’s a practical example of what I’m talking about:

•  Take a $200,000 home
• Bought with 4.5% interest
• With principal and interestThat’s $962/month in mortgage.

• That same home
• At 5% interest Is $1020/month.

Look at those two numbers. Imagine you’re the one looking to buy that home. See how the difference is significant in it’s impact on a buyer’s ability to buy your home?

If you’re the seller and that happens it may be harder to sell your home.

So when you see interest rates separated by 1/2 % and think, “Big deal.  I’d rather sell my home for even a half % more.  I’ll wait to sell”, remember this example of the countervailing forces.

Don’t fall for the bad and the ugly.
Be good and be smart.