Y’all know that I dig the Cromford report. Then again, I also like to follow congressional and legislative redistricting. So, I guess I kinda like data. Sue me.

So, my friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title Company likes do do a month-in-review summary. Very handy.

What might just look like a collection of charts and numbers is actually a great overview of the state of our growth and change in Phoenix. Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re gearing up to buy a home, its time to step on the gas. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.

Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re looking to buy a home, better step on it now. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend looks likely to continue.

Here are the Market Headlines:

• We are slowly climbing out of the pricing low point from the second half of August to the first half of September.
•  Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.
• Foreclosure activity is declining and REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

Homes Under 100,000 to 200,000

• The demand for homes between $50,000 and $150,000 is particularly strong as investors chase homes to add to their rental portfolio but demand from owner occupiers remains relatively weak.
• As the supply from foreclosures has fallen, short sales are becoming a larger part of the picture.

Homes 200,000 to 400,000

• Above $200,000 the market continues to decline, but only slightly.
• High sales volumes at the low end this sector is pushing overall pricing higher.
• Average sales price per sq. ft. is rising for homes under $200,000 and stable up to $400,000.

Homes above 400,000

• Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.
• The overall average and median sales pricing is now on an upward trend.
• Buying interest in homes over $3,000,000 is dramatically down compared to this spring.
  

  See how the days inventory was at its high in 2010, but has dropped dramatically. This is a buying spree.

This just in from the desk of my friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans:

There were some changes other than weather as of October 1^st this year. For those of your looking to buy a home, there were several mortgage changes effective last Saturday.

For those looking into FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans the maximum loan has been reduced state wide. As you may recall, in 2008 a temporary boost to Federal Housing Administration-guaranteed loan was passed. That boost expired October 1^st and

In Maricopa County new loan limits are:

Anyone looking into VA Funding has noticed a decrease, sometime more than a full % for purchases, on funding fees.  Across the board these are positive changes, as the VA loan is already perhaps the best loan option available for today’s veterans and active duty service men and women.

Regular Military Funding:

Reserves and National Guard:

Beginning October 1, 2011, USDA Rural Loans have annual mortgage insurance (3%, paid monthly) and reduced the upfront guarantee fee on purchases from 3.5% to 2%. Unlike FHA insured loans, USDA’s annual insurance fee is for the lifetime of the loan, which is definitely something to think about when considering loans.

Loans can be complicated, but they don’t have to be. Contact Jeannie at (602) 385-4812 today for help.

And, of course, give me a call at 602-456-9388 for property questions.

You know that Phoenix continues to “grow up” when it develops a healthy sketch comedy community. Enter stage left: First Friday Night Live.

Amongst the hustle of the First Friday art walk lies the Firehouse, a gallery which plays host to provocative exhibits, musicians, and local fire dancers all month long. After the First Friday vendors pack up and the art walk teens return home before curfew, the firehouse continues to burn the midnight oil. This Friday, the cast and crew of First Friday Night Live will kick off their second season of sidesplitting sketch and stand up on the stage behind The Firehouse.

The cast of seventeen local actors and comedians along with a group of dedicated writers collaborate all month long creating, writing, and practicing original scenes. In addition to the six nightly sketches, the hour and a half performance will include stand up from the cast, musical guests, as well as the firehouse’s signature fire dancers.  In total, the cast and crew are more than 60 dedicated members strong.

Michael23, a local artist and show founder is looking forward to the second season and the knowledge that comes with it. The first season ran September to March, with two “uncomfortably cold nights,” in January and February that changed the course of this season. To avoid the cold Arizona nights, FFNL has decide to split the season, staging shows October to December and then March to June with two FFNL events in between.

The show is put up every month on a “shoestring budget,” says Michael, “We hope to break even at the end of this season.” Tickets are available pre-sale for five dollars online or the Firehouse Gallery and Lawn Gnome Publishing Bookstore on first Friday. Tickets at the door are seven. You can even buy season tickets for forty dollars on their website which comes with a free t-shirt to boot. The show also streams live online, for those who need there FFNL fix in bed.

If you’re interested in finding out more about FFNL or joining the production you can find information on their site.

First Friday Night Live’s first show of the season premieres at 11pm this Friday at the Firehouse.

The downtown scene is an eclectic mix of cultures and communities that we’ve grown to know and love. For one important downtown organization, which helps homeless LGBTQ youth get back on their feet, there has been a quiet change in leadership.

1in10 has officially brought Linda Elliot in as the new executive director in July. Linda, a successful business woman, is well known for her work in the Human Rights Campaign. She is an influential person in AZ politics. She, and her partner, Carolyn Lane, a Maricopa Country Constable, are an inspiring couple.

In truth, 1in10 has been around since the early nineties. You may have known them as VOIT and Horizons, both of which specialized in LGBTQ youth. In 2002, these two fantastic organizations joined forces to create 1n10, which supports LGBTQ youth in Arizona as well as nationally through “positive self-acceptance through life enhancing programs.”

One of those programs is the OUTdoors camp which is one of the largest LGBTQ summer programs in the world.

(Does anybody else see the irony of one of the largest summer LGBTQ camps in the world being located in AZ? We should be proud.)

OUTdoors, which 1in10 describes as a youth leadership camp, is like many other summer camps, full of zip lining, horseback riding, and crafts, but works on developing leadership skills, collaboration and communication with campers to help better their community.

Two months into her new position, Linda has been a busy lady pursuing grants and new programs. In addition to the OUTdoors, 1n10 provides weekly group events in the Valley, and hopes to expand with a new leadership and training programs and guest speakers to inspire youth and create a “fun, safe, social space”.  She “hit the ground running,” according to Stacey Jay Cavaliere, Program Coordinator for this weekend’s Sources of Strength Celebration.

The event will be held this First Friday at the Downtown Civic Space Park. 1n10 is raising money to launch a new suicide prevention campaign by showcasing their musical talents, which includes the 1n10 hip hop squad, and youth art, displayed at the Fair Trade Cafe. Their hope is to get people and businesses all over the Valley to attend and show their support.

1n10 continues to reach out to the community for partners to help us in their efforts. If you’re interested in learning more information please visit www.1n10.org

Have a Charity you love. Visit My Charity Refferal Page to find out how you can help your favorite local charity.

The City of Phoenix is now offering a $15,000 loan towards closing costs and down payment to purchase a newly renovated “Move-in Ready” homes through their Neighborhood Stabilization Program.

The Neighborhood Stabilization Program is an effort in response to the number of vacant foreclosures in Phoenix neighborhoods. Housing programs are popping up all over the Southwest in hopes of turning foreclosures into affordable, refurbished homes and enhancing neighborhood curb appeal.

NSP is offering an extensive catalog of renovated properties in established neighborhoods as well as providing guidance through the entire process.

To qualify, home buyers must meet these requirements:

1. Applicants must meet the income guidelines for household Family size. For Example, A family of 4 must have an income at or below $78,600 annually to receive the loan.
2. Candidate should be able to qualify for a 15 or 30 year fixed mortgage
3. Though you don’t have to be a first time home owner, you can’t currently be on title on any residential property.
4. Applicants must be able to contribute one half of the home’s required cash down payment for a min. $1,000. For example, a $100,000 home would require a $1750 down payment.
5. All loan hopefuls have to take a two hour one-on-one credit counseling and an 8 hour home buyer education class

A word of caution: I have helped buyers through this program. Half of the time it went smoothly and relatively quickly. The other half of the time it took longer and everybody was pulling their hair out. Now, to be fair, that was mostly because the listing agent’s contractors were not doing the basic things that the city inspectors asked of them.

Further, that was in 2010. Now NSP has homes that are already renovated. So, this is a whole new world from when the program just got started.

Regardless, families state-wide are in a great position to be homeowners in great phoenix neighborhoods. My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans let me know all about this program and, as a mentioned a few weeks ago, she is experienced in these loans and could be a huge help in the process.

You can visit www.phoenix.gov/nsphome to view the Move In Ready list of available homes or give me a call today at 602-456-9388.

There is nothing better than sitting in a hammock under a huge tree with a drink in hand. But none of that would be possible without people like the City of Phoenix Parks and Recreation department and their programs like the upcoming one on Saturday.

I am excited to tell you about the Tree Care Workshop. With multiple workshops throughout the year, the last one for 2011 is this upcoming Saturday at University Park.

In a blog post I wrote a few years back, the City General Plan suggested that every new parking lot should have “at least 51% shade coverage at maturity of tree.” I don’t know about you, but at every parking lot I visit in the Valley seems to lack any miniscule amount of shade.

Granted, the City General Plan is exactly that: a plan. But I believe programs like the one coming up is a step up that can help everyone and benefit not only those who plant the tree, but everyone in general.

Trees have an incredible impact on the environment and according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the “net cooling effect of a young, healthy tree is equivalent to ten room-size air conditioners operating 20 hours a day.”

Not only that, but the American Public Power Association said that “landscaping can reduce air conditioning costs by up to 50 percent, by shading the windows and walls of a home.”

This is amazing! Just think of how much energy we can save just by planting a tree in our yard.

Why wouldn’t you want to plant more trees around your home and even your neighborhood? They benefit the environment by providing such an invaluable necessity with oxygen and clean air.

So why should you attend this free class? Well, it is taught by an award-winning arborist that will give you the tools to design and care for a beautiful landscape. In fact, according to the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers, a mature tree can often have an appraised value of between $1,000 and $10,000.

Sign up for the workshop today! Visit www.phoenix.gov/parks or call 602-261-8793 and use the registration code 72640. We hope to see you there!

The city of Phoenix is famous for some amazing things, but many of them pass or are forgotten over the years. There is one small local landmark that is still holding its place on Grand Avenue near 19^th Avenue.

I’m talking about the famous Mel’s Diner that is home to some of the most delicious grits this side of the Mississippi, and possibly east as well.

This small diner has been a staple in the area for years and was actually home to a show called “Alice” that ran from the late 70s until the early 80s.

Although the show only runs on late night TV, it is still a tribute to a great area that is starting to make a comeback along the Grand Avenue corridor.

This “comeback” has been in the works for years, but even with the slow economy, it is still slowly growing and there has been a resurgence that other parts of town are not seeing.

One example of this resurgence is the once famous Oasis Hotel which is in the process of transforming into an artist-friendly apartment complex. This is exactly what is needed to bring a community together and create a great place to live: build from the ground up instead of from the top.

I am excited to see where the Grand Avenue corridor is currently headed and cannot wait to see what it looks like in a few years. The CenPho area has really become a hotbed for artists and living, so it will be great to see what becomes of the neighboring areas.

Of course, if you’ve read previous blog posts, you know that I think we need to have a trolly on Grand Ave.

But, I want to know. What would you like to see on Grand Ave?

You’ve heard me ramble on about how great it is to live in Central Phoenix. It’s the truth! CenPho is the place to live and offers residents so much that other cities just don’t offer.

But, check this out. Here’s another reason you should consider moving in to CenPho if you are not already here: a long commute may increase your chances of divorce by 40%. Really.

One recent study in particular conducted by the Umea University in Sweden showed that there was a large increase in the risk of divorce with an increased commute.

OK. I’m being a little facetious. But there is probably some truth here. The two hours you are NOT travelling to and from work you could spend with your main squeeze at the Phoenix Art Museum, or one of the upteen thousand new restaurants downtown.

One thing the study does not mention is the importance of the aesthetic on our lives. Even though Phoenix has torn town waaay too much of its architectural heritage, what’s left still gives people something that the burbs can’t –a sense of space and identity.

A sense of history really brings out the artistic side of people with architecture and individuality when it comes to homes and businesses.

The various cultures and demographics of everyone living in CenPho make it so unique and lively that there is something for everyone. I’m constantly reminded of Richard Florida’s book The Rise of the Creative Class.  Its kinda old news now. Remember when he came to Phoenix in about 2003 to speak and we filled up the Orpheum? Much of what he said has held true, despite the economic downtown

1) If you build an organic (versus top-down) community, the creative class will come.

2) Areas with dense urban centers and creative outlets survive economic downturn better than other areas.

This is true of Phoenix. We saw it ten years ago and we see it today.

I’m just sayin’.

I’ve had first time home buyer clients who are frustrated by how much distressed property there is in the market. They can’t afford a renovated home, but they can’t afford to fix up the property on their own.

Well, there is an answer.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) offers homebuyers the opportunity to secure a loan known as a 203(k) loan. This loan is administered through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and gives homebuyers the necessary funds to rehabilitate a home.

Many times, a bank will be hesitant and may reject lending money when the home is not habitable. This is where the 203(k) loan comes into play and can help homebuyers obtain the necessary funds to not only buy the home but to purchase the necessary upgrades to make it habitable.

This loan is an incredible opportunity and is coming into play more now than ever since the housing market took a dive. With many people facing foreclosure, they stripped their house of everything that wasn’t, or was, bolted down leaving the house a complete disaster. This loan gives homebuyers the chance to come in and fix up the house.

This does two things: 1) increases the value of the home and surrounding area and 2) boosts the economy of the community by having another family living and buying in the area.

My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans is well versed in helping you get these “fixer-upper” loans. Jeannie has been trained to help guide clients through the entire process.

But as with any mortgage, there are some criteria both the homebuyer and the home must meet:

1)      The homebuyer must meet FHA financing guidelines which means a FICO score of 640 or more and a debt to income ratio of 31/43 (see FHA for more info)

2)      The home must be the primary residence

3)      For the home to qualify, it must be existing for more than one year

4)      The work must be completed by a Licensed General Contractor – sorry do-it-yourselfers

5)      Work starts after you close on the home and must be completed within 6 months

There are also two types of 203(k)s that homeowners can choose from depending on the extent of the work required:

1)      Streamline 203(k) – this includes uncomplicated repairs and improvements to home up to $35,000 and no more than 2 subcontractors needed for entire project

2)      Standard 203K – this is for major repairs and improvements along with structural improvements to property exceeding $35,000 – up to 6 months PITI (principle, interest, taxes and insurance) can be included in mortgage if property cannot be occupied during construction. A Licensed General Contractor is needed if layered work is involved

These 203(k) loans are a great way to get our housing market back up and running. With a wide selection of homes in the Central Phoenix area, there is something for everyone.

And don’t forget, the Realtor, Lender, HUD Consultant and Contractor will hold your hand throughout the WHOLE process.

If you would like more information on the 203(k) loan, or just on homes in CenPho, give me a call today at 602-456-9388.

If I have to hear another person predict a massive “shadow inventory” I’m going to turn green, and you wouldn’t like me when I turn green.

Well, not really green, more like red with some veins popping out on my forehead and my head spinning around.

So what am I talking about? Well, I’m a news junkie and when I hear every pundit on TV prattle on about  a shadow inventory, like its the forthcoming of the “four horsemen of the house-pocolypse,”  Where is the data to back it up? If they were looking at the same data as I am, then they wouldn’t be saying this nonsense.

I mean, come on, just do some quick research and see for yourself. The Cromford Index is the best guide out there and comes directly from the MLS as well as the county court and recorder’s documents. I would say those are just a teensy bit credible, I mean after all, they take the information directly from sales, right?

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

So what exactly is a shadow inventory? At its core, shadow inventory refers to properties, which are on their way to foreclosure or are already foreclosed that have not yet been sold or put on the market (for whatever reason, we don’t know).

Well, here is why there will be no shadow inventory in the Phoenix area:

1)      A house will not be part of any inventory of foreclosed homes until it has been given a foreclosure notice (see “Pending Foreclosures” on the graphs below). Even if it is a short sale, it probably has a foreclosure notice pending, so it is likely part of the big purple area below. A foreclosure notice is when the bank sends you a note to say, “Dearest customer. We noticed you stopped paying your mortgage. While we love you very much, we will throw your sorry butt out on the street by such and such date unless you pay up. Signed, Your Favorite Bank.”

(Click on graphs to enlarge)

That’s it. That is all there is. You could try to argue that more homes are going to go in to foreclosure because the economy is going to go in to a double-dip recession, but it is waaaay too early to predict that. Further, the foreclosures are going down because the market is clearing of those properties that were purchased at the peak of the market. There are just fewer of them now.

So, please. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your neighbors and strangers whom you don’t even know.

Let’s put this shadow inventory myth to bed for good…

If you are buying a house, this means the inventory is dropping and prices are going to go up. So, don’t delay. If you are looking to sell a house, times are getting better for you. Either way, call me at 602-456-9388.