For the last month or so, I walked you through a 5-part series on the current state of the market. Today, we’re going to take a giant leap up. Welcome to…

The Macro-Macro View

This slide is from the Brooking’s Institute. It’s a very new thing. Very new information.  It’s about migration of people into Phoenix.

In about 2006 we had 400,000/year moving here, but then it dropped. People have been coming from the big red circles to the blue circles because they’re tired of the cold, the overpopulated areas, the promise of something better, lots of reasons. The circles are sized based on the number of people migrating.

The Macro-Micro View

This next graph gives us a good look at the migration percentage rates between 2001 and 2012. The gray line at 0.0 indicates a normal inflow of people migrating in and out of each city. The red lines are people migrating out. Because red lines are a negative number it’s below the 0.0 line. The blue lines are people migrating to each city. These are positive numbers.

In 2011 and 2012 you see people are moving into Phoenix. We’re going back to our normal above average inflow of people. Follow the line back to 2003, you’ll see we had a positive migration rate which peaked in 2004/05. The numbers took a huge nose dive in 2004/2005 because of bad economy and people were leaving Arizona. Now they’re starting to come back. We never went negative, though Orlando did (the dark blue, almost black line).

The macro-macro and macro-micro takeaway is that people are still leaving the east and coming into Phoenix.

Thinking Ahead: Infrastructure

Let’s think about the coming infrastructure. Where is the light rail going? Will the light rail still drive investments? There’s very limited infill planed, so if you’re an investor, you need to follow the transit.

The thick blue lines below are planned extensions of the light rail. The little circles are current light rail stops.

We’ve learned that you can hardly find a house between the 7’s now because of where the light rail is. Those people who really didn’t like the idea of the light rail coming in may still be out there, but look how much it’s helped the economy. Look at what the economic development has done.

The light rail line heading farther west on the I-10, starting at the I-17 should be done by 2023. Does this mean you need to jump on a house right now? No. Will the homes near that coming light rail line be as extremely unavailable as the last time that reduced the homes between the 7’s so significantly? I doubt it.

Look at this where the future light rail line going up 19^th Ave to Dunlap (the line past the red bit), headed to Metrocenter.

You’ll want to keep watch on Metrocenter over the next 10 years. We don’t know exactly which way it’s going to go up the 51, but we do know it will go to the ballpark. We also know that it’s going to follow the 51, though how close right up next to it is uncertain. It’s a great drive. I’d love to see the line go right up the middle of the 51 freeway. We’ll see.

The line might go into into paradise valley mall, right at Cactus rd. There are some really nice houses there. I think we’re going to see some good value go into those houses because of that.

Look back up at the big light rail map, above. Notice that the light rail does not go into Scottsdale.

 

You won’t know about it for 30 years, but Scottsdale is making the same mistake right now that Georgetown made in Washington DC in the early 1970’s.

When the Metro line opened there, Georgetown wanted nothing to do with it. They didn’t want “those people” (whatever that means) around. For that reason, all the development around the Metroline went east. There’s a new convention center, new stadium, tons of other new developments on the opposite of Washington DC, today, the exact opposite direction of Georgetown. Georgetown is dead.

Scottsdale is asking for the same thing. I’m calling it right now. You can quote me on this.

Thinking Ahead: The Phoenix We Want

Ready to make a difference in our future light rail infrastructure and other important urban choices?

Last night (5/15) the Urban Choices Community Conversation: Making Phoenix a World Class City took place with the Phoenix City Council district 4 candidates. If you missed it, tonight, (5/16) the same opportunity for downtown Phoenix will take place with the District 8 candidates at 6pm – 8pm, at Levine Machine (605 E Grant St, Phoenix, AZ 85004)

• Creating Connected Communities (Facilitating Walking, Biking, Rail, and Bus Connectivity)
• City Staff 2.1 (Silo Busting and Moving from Planning to 21st Century Implementation)
• Economic Competitiveness (Economic Resources Stewardship – Development Connected to Existing Infrastructure)
• Economic Diversity (Moving Beyond Boom and Bust)
• Transit Oriented Development (Redefining Urban Vibrancy –New Thinking in a New Economy)

Buy or sell, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.
I’ll make it happen.

You have to give it to them. Despite upcoming triple digit temperatures, the Phoenix Bike Community never stops peddling.

And why would they? All Valley Metro buses are equipped with bike racks and the city is finally expanding bike lanes to help support this very green form of travel.

And I have to say finally! I remember about 12 years ago I tried to ride my bike to work from the Willo neighborhood to downtown. I was certain every morning that I was going to die. The drivers would buzz me as if to say, “yeah, buddy, we’re gonna enforce this here no-ride zone.”

Anyway, in Celebration of the city’s growing bike scene, Twenty-five top local graphic designers will show their original bicycle-themed poster artwork for Third Friday festivities and through the month of April by appointment all leading up to Pedal Craft.

The one night event will feature lots of bikes, plenty of beer, and a bike themed poster show highlighting Phoenix bike culture. Throughout Phoenix, bicyclists, walkers, and pedicab riders will be visiting downtown Phoenix restaurants that have installed bike racks and are offering special menu discounts for PEDAL CRAFT PHX participants. Those bike racks were created in part by SideWalk Phoenix, a newly formed advocacy group for walkable, bikeable, and livable communities, will display a dozen one-of-a-kind bicycle racks designed by local artists and metal sculptors.

SideWalk Phoenix will be raising awareness and funds at Pedal Craft to create a temporary infill “pop-up” park at the quarter-acre Ro2 Lot at 1005 North Second Street. According to Pedal Craft Co-organizer, Jim McPherson,  “Fun, community-minded events like PEDAL CRAFT PHX help to raise awareness and, knock on wood, support for much needed bicycle transportation initiatives in the Valley.”

These are great community organizations and members working together for the great phoenix area. I’m inspired every time I see a new project like this come together.

THIS, my friends, is why people are flocking to Phoenix.

Over the years, brokers have gotten a bad wrap. I work with people everyday who want to go with big banks and credit unions for their loans (because they haven’t done anything wrong in the past few years, right?).

Just recently I had a client who went with a big credit union for her loan, and 7 days before close of escrow, they decided to pull the loan because the bank had issues with the HOA. Lucky for us, Jeanie Bolger from Nova Home loans came in and saved the day. I can’t tell you the number of times this happens.

Here is what I learn and I want to share with anybody who is thinking about finding a lender:

1. Big banks are just that BIG. They’ve got lots of red tape and work to get through everyday, before they even think about giving you a loan. On the other hand, a mortgage broker is a certified professional who seeks the best mortgage terms for you by accessing a network of lenders that includes major banks, trust companies, credit unions and finance companies.
2. Big banks and credit unions tend to be more conservative on loans. So, if you have something out of the ordinary going on, like a second property, a divorce or a spouse with bad credit, stay away from the big banks, especially.
3. Underwriters work fast with Brokers. Jeannie’s brokers are in the same office, so she can work with the underwriter to make sure everything they need and you need is in place. Jeannie can physically walk down a hall and ask an underwriter a question about a loan and get an answer right away. They can’t do that in the mega bureaucracies.

I recently worked with Lonna to find a home downtown. Lonna wanted to go with a credit union because they had given her pre-approval. One week from closing escrow, the credit union pulled the loan and we once again turned to Jeannie.

Lonna loved working with her. “Jeannie answered all my questions immediately and spoke to me like she was trying to help. It feels like your being interrogated when your with a Credit Union, like you’re just a case number, but with a broker it was like they cared.” Once Jeannie took over, it only took two days from when the underwriter received the application to approval.

So, let me be clear: from the time we started to the time we close, Jeannie swooped in and got it all done within 5 days! Its gotta be a record!

So if you’re thinking of buying a home in downtown phoenix, use a broker. Heck, Call Jeannie!

Or call me for more information about the market: 602-456-9388.

I’m sure y’all have heard that “broken window theory” of criminology, made popular by  James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in 1982. Basically, if law enforcement does not address small crimes like broken windows then it becomes harder to fight more serious crimes.

I’ve seen this in reverse since I moved to Phoenix in 1998. I’ve seen greater attention on the part of the city and police to things like graffiti and petty crimes. As a result, and along with hard work of urban pioneers, things have gotten much better here.

Well, as city budgets have been cut (thank you Grover Norquist and the like), we are not training new cops and we don’t have the ability to respond quickly to graffiti like we once could.

So, we citizens have to respond in new ways. That is why I am happy to see that Mayor Greg Stanton has created an advisory committee to advise him on current issues impacting phoenix neighborhoods. Mayor Stanton believes “our city is only as strong as our individual neighborhoods, so we must keep an open line of communication.”At Quarterly meetings the committee, comprised of 29 members, will discuss such topics as law enforcement, parks, streets, neighborhood services, etc. The first meeting is set for the end of this month.

On of the reasons we love and live in downtown phoenix, is because if it’s walkability and promise for future communities. It’s important to support the local community and neighborhoods, not only for our quality of life downtown, but our home values in the future.

Arizona is a beautiful place full of fantastic neighborhoods and if you’re moving here, you’ll probably need a little help deciding what community is right for you.

Jeannie Bolger and I have created a guide for new home buyers with links for information about schools and attractions for different parts of the valley.

This guide will be really handy for people moving in to phoenix neighborhoods or for companies to have on hand for their employees.

If you know of somebody thinking to move to Phoenix, or a company that is expanding in Arizona, please share this resource with them.

Download it here and keep it on hand in your office. Ken Clark’s Relocation Guide

Of course, Jeannie and I are just a phone call away if you need anything.