Nobody has any idea. But I predict that, while it won’t be as dramatic as our last, it may go on for a while.

Here’s the analysis:

After the presidential elections in November, regardless of the winner,  prices will continue to move upward. How do I know this? And why does this sound like a weather report prediction?

It’s because the coming change in home-buying patterns is showing evidence of a refreshing rain moving our way. After a six-year long summer of dry, cloudless skies, we’re beginning to smell the change in the air. A break from the scorching heat is a ‘comin.

To say it without the weather analogy, the increase in buying will continue, in part because a lot of companies are holding off on major projects and hiring until after the elections’ fallout. However, that upswing won’t be dramatic because our national debt and energy prices will continue to be a drag on our economy.

In regards to prices, we don’t see where new inventory in our Phoenix market will come from, especially in CenPho. Tight inventory means higher prices.

Mark Zandy, one of the nation’s preeminent housing analysts was on the Diane Rems Show yesterday morning talking about prices and how they are continuing to move upward as distressed properties are going away.

In Phoenix house prices have gone up 30% from last year. Yes 30%.

Take a look at the graph below, showing the Monthly Average Sales Price Per Square Foot. You can’t see the wind, but you can tell how and where it’s moving by watching the things it affects.

This chart shows a snapshot of four years worth of housing prices on the move. The brown line on top, the one with the greatest upward spiking is 2012.

My expert conclusion?

The heat is unbearable and so many people are walking around with sunburned proof of the long, hot summer. If you’re thinking of buying, make your move and buy now.

I want to say this very clearly: while prices will be going up for the foreseeable future, they won’t return to 2007 levels for years. So, if you are thinking to BUY, do it now before you lose another 30% of your buying power. If you think you want to hold off SELLING until you hit 2008 prices again, don’t expect to see that again until 2020.

If you want more information, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

It was nice to see this article in the Arizona Republic yesterday talking about a “rebound” in the condo market in Phoenix.

I don’t know if I would go so far as to call it a rebound. In fact, several of the projects the article talks about are still not sold –they turned in to apartment buildings instead.

However, the article does point out something that I’ve been saying for a while: an increasing number of people want that dense, urban experience. That is why 44 Monroe, for example, filled up with renters so quickly.

So, while you can still get a great condo downtown and in CenPho right now for much, much less than you could in 2006, and while the market for condos has not completely righted itself it is true that the inventory of condos in CenPho has dropped sharply over the past year. They are being gobbled up!

This demand should be an indicator to anybody, whether buying a house or a condo, that urban centers are going to be in great demand once the market stabilizes. If you are holding on to your house to sell later, have hope. If you are thinking about getting in to CenPho, now is a good time because it will be more expensive a year from now.

I’ve made the jump from John Hall to HomeSmart. I’m sure this means nearly nothing to most of you. But I want to explain to you why and what this means.

I chose to work with my former broker, John Hall & Associates, because they were locally owned. Re/Max, Realty Executives, Century 21 –these are all nation-wide broker and really, really big companies.

But, like many of you, I believe that we need to keep our dollars in our local economy. The fees that brokers take from agents could go to some corporate headquarters somewhere in Ohio, or they could stay here and add to our economy. This is why I am a member of Local First Arizona and I support locally-owned businesses.

Well, John Hall sold itself to a company called Realty One Group, out of Nevada. It did not take me long to realize that this was in opposition to what I believe.

I was happy to learn, however, that HomeSmart is locally owned and originates in Arizona. They have well over 1,000 agents and a very effective system for processing transactions.

This means little or nothing to you, the buyer or seller. But I want you to know that, even in decisions like this, I am committed to CenPho and my state.

I appreciate your business.