Market trends are upon us again! Try to contain your excitement.

Our Friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title was nice enough to send us new stats on the current market.

Between November and December supply was is once again on a downward trend for all price ranges. The strongest decline in supply is for homes under $100,000. Sales rates look better between$200,000 and $400,000 while above $400,000 demand is still a problem.  Demand from owner occupiers remains subdued due to strict underwriting standards for “jumbo” loans, but cash buyers including landlords and other investors are quickly snapping up a large part of whatever comes onto the market.

The supply from foreclosures continues to fall with more pending foreclosures getting resolved by short sales. Lenders are receiving fewer homes into REO inventory as a higher percentage of trustee sales result in a sale to a third party. Despite public perception to the contrary, price per sq. ft. has gone up  in the past year. (Do we hear that on the national news? Noooo!)

The strongest recent movement is for the price range below $100,000, where price per sq. ft. hit bottom in February and is now up nearly 7% over the last 12 months. With supply on a downward trend again we anticipate that the peak spring season will find most buyers frustrated by a lack of choice and fierce competition from other buyers.

So what does this mean for you? Buy now!

The inventory of houses between $100,000- 200,000 are down 46.6% and sales prices are now 6.9% higher than last year. Homes from 200,000-400,000 numbers aren’t as dramatic, with supply down 26% and prices up .3%. As all we all learned in our 10th Grade Economics class, as supply grows more limited, demand will drive prices up.

Need help finding a home? Call me today at 602-456-9388

Well, its market analysis time again. That’s right, gear up because I’m going to throw some wonky charts at you. Don’t be too intimidated. I promise to be gentle.
It’s short and sweet, really. The number of pending foreclosures continues to go down. The entire pie is shrinking, leaving an increasing percentage of the pie as short sale homes. So let’s get down to business and see what I’m really talking about.

“REO” you’re probably wondering what does that mean? Simply just a fancy term for a foreclosed property.
“AWC” simply means Active with Contingencies. In other words it is simply a short sale home. The buyer has already agreed upon the price yet, their waiting on the bank for the final decision.Have you noticed a trend yet? All of the categories are shrinking therefore the inventory of homes, are going down.
What’s going to happen next you ask? The prices start to go up because scarcity creates demand.

The numbers of pending foreclosures are taking a dive and it doesn’t look pretty.
Have you heard about the new wave foreclosures based on nation-wide estimates of how many people are slacking on their house payment? This is completely misleading for three reasons:

1.   Nation-wide averages are not Arizona.
2. It is easy to double count those people who are late, but not in foreclosures and those who are late and in foreclosures.
3. Finally, the banks will not sell more properties than the market will bear. Hello everyone.  They want the prices to go up, not down.

Heck, if the banks are sitting on a bunch of homes. Please let them out! My clients who are on their 6^th offer after being beat out by cash buyers would love to see some more homes in their horizon!
What does all of this mean for you? It means that the market is becoming more competitive and the days of low-balling on prices are long gone.

If you have more questions about the market, please contact me at  (602) 456-9388

I gotta say. I’m really shocked that this $29,900, 2br/1.75ba, 1,100sqft condo is still on the market.

I don’t represent this property. But I do live at this condo complex and I think anybody should beg, borrow or steal to live here –especially if you are looking for something very inexpensive. I’ve been inside. It looks almost like nobody lived there.

Click here for the listing information. Call me if you have questions: 602-456-9388.

Y’all know that I dig the Cromford report. Then again, I also like to follow congressional and legislative redistricting. So, I guess I kinda like data. Sue me.

So, my friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title Company likes do do a month-in-review summary. Very handy.

What might just look like a collection of charts and numbers is actually a great overview of the state of our growth and change in Phoenix. Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re gearing up to buy a home, its time to step on the gas. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.

Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re looking to buy a home, better step on it now. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend looks likely to continue.

Here are the Market Headlines:

• We are slowly climbing out of the pricing low point from the second half of August to the first half of September.
•  Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.
• Foreclosure activity is declining and REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

Homes Under 100,000 to 200,000

• The demand for homes between $50,000 and $150,000 is particularly strong as investors chase homes to add to their rental portfolio but demand from owner occupiers remains relatively weak.
• As the supply from foreclosures has fallen, short sales are becoming a larger part of the picture.

Homes 200,000 to 400,000

• Above $200,000 the market continues to decline, but only slightly.
• High sales volumes at the low end this sector is pushing overall pricing higher.
• Average sales price per sq. ft. is rising for homes under $200,000 and stable up to $400,000.

Homes above 400,000

• Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.
• The overall average and median sales pricing is now on an upward trend.
• Buying interest in homes over $3,000,000 is dramatically down compared to this spring.
  

  See how the days inventory was at its high in 2010, but has dropped dramatically. This is a buying spree.

This just in from the desk of my friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans:

There were some changes other than weather as of October 1^st this year. For those of your looking to buy a home, there were several mortgage changes effective last Saturday.

For those looking into FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans the maximum loan has been reduced state wide. As you may recall, in 2008 a temporary boost to Federal Housing Administration-guaranteed loan was passed. That boost expired October 1^st and

In Maricopa County new loan limits are:

Anyone looking into VA Funding has noticed a decrease, sometime more than a full % for purchases, on funding fees.  Across the board these are positive changes, as the VA loan is already perhaps the best loan option available for today’s veterans and active duty service men and women.

Regular Military Funding:

Reserves and National Guard:

Beginning October 1, 2011, USDA Rural Loans have annual mortgage insurance (3%, paid monthly) and reduced the upfront guarantee fee on purchases from 3.5% to 2%. Unlike FHA insured loans, USDA’s annual insurance fee is for the lifetime of the loan, which is definitely something to think about when considering loans.

Loans can be complicated, but they don’t have to be. Contact Jeannie at (602) 385-4812 today for help.

And, of course, give me a call at 602-456-9388 for property questions.

If you are putting off  purchasing a home because you are afraid that there might be changes at your job (layoffs, relocation, etc.), there might be an answer in Nova Home Loan’s Safe House Mortgage Protection Plan.

I work with a lot of different brokers. Others may have this, as well. But this is good to know.

Here are the features:

• If you lose your job, they will cover as much as 24 months of your mortgage (up to $1,800 per month). 12 months if you purchase the plan if when you are just refinancing a loan.
• You start the plan when you close on the house or complete the refinance.
• Cost = $770 on a purchase and $595 on a refinance. (You can pay this at close of escrow and maybe work it in to the closing costs that the seller pays!)

Eligibility:

• Ages 18-66
• Must reside in the US.
• Cannot be self-employed.
• Must be employed a minimum of 30hrs per week at time of close.

There are more details here. So, have a look. It might be something that could give you the piece of mind to move ahead and get a house in phoenix now, while you can still get the $8,000 tax credit!

Here is a news article about it.

Or, call Jeannie Bolger at Nova Home Loans at jeannieb@novahomeloans.com.

Sunnyslope is a little north of CenPho, but they are doing a great job of community building.

My friend Chritina Plante with John C. Lincoln Hospital, who helps out with the Sunnyslope Art Walk wants you to know that there is a call for art for their October 10th Art Walk.

The application deadline has been extended to September 11th.

Have a look at the Sunnyslope website for submission details.

The Case-Shiller Index is going to come out tomorrow and tell us that home prices are on the rise.

See and article here.

Of course, I’ve been telling you about this since March of this year. We saw it coming because we see the numbers, direct from the multi-listing service (MLS). Here is an oft-repeated graph from the Cromford Report:

Here are some things to remember:

1) Reports like this are always 3-5 months behind because the people who report them want several months behind them before they feel comfortable making any statements, even if the triggering event happened 4 months ago!

2) Prices are not going to rocket up like they did from 2005-2007. The economy is just not that strong. So, today’s market is much like it was in 2001-2003.  It is still a great time to buy.

3) Stratify the market. Homes on the market sell faster the cheaper they are. A $100,000 home that is a foreclosure is going to sell in a matter of days or weeks. A $300,000 traditional sale may stay on for a few months. However, the over-all market is very close to equilibrium, which means homes sell in about 5 months. Homes over $1 million have an “absorption rate” of 848 days!

4) The Case-Shiller Index looks at the market nation-wide. Every market is different. Stay tuned for the best local information.

I want to give a little shout-out to Tazmine and Paul over at Blooming Rock Developments. Have a look at this post about a renovation project that they did earlier this year. It demonstrates that even the most drab and uninspiring structures can be sharp, fresh and unique. Their project, 3 Palms, is over on Cheery Lynn, east of 16th St. They are in a great place to serve as a catalyst to residential property redevelopment.

I’m waiting for more photos of the work they did inside and some information on the costs and lessons from the project. I’ve seen inside, but you should, too. They did a great job of balancing modern and warm.