Well, its market analysis time again. That’s right, gear up because I’m going to throw some wonky charts at you. Don’t be too intimidated. I promise to be gentle.
It’s short and sweet, really. The number of pending foreclosures continues to go down. The entire pie is shrinking, leaving an increasing percentage of the pie as short sale homes. So let’s get down to business and see what I’m really talking about.

“REO” you’re probably wondering what does that mean? Simply just a fancy term for a foreclosed property.
“AWC” simply means Active with Contingencies. In other words it is simply a short sale home. The buyer has already agreed upon the price yet, their waiting on the bank for the final decision.Have you noticed a trend yet? All of the categories are shrinking therefore the inventory of homes, are going down.
What’s going to happen next you ask? The prices start to go up because scarcity creates demand.

The numbers of pending foreclosures are taking a dive and it doesn’t look pretty.
Have you heard about the new wave foreclosures based on nation-wide estimates of how many people are slacking on their house payment? This is completely misleading for three reasons:

1.   Nation-wide averages are not Arizona.
2. It is easy to double count those people who are late, but not in foreclosures and those who are late and in foreclosures.
3. Finally, the banks will not sell more properties than the market will bear. Hello everyone.  They want the prices to go up, not down.

Heck, if the banks are sitting on a bunch of homes. Please let them out! My clients who are on their 6^th offer after being beat out by cash buyers would love to see some more homes in their horizon!
What does all of this mean for you? It means that the market is becoming more competitive and the days of low-balling on prices are long gone.

If you have more questions about the market, please contact me at  (602) 456-9388

I gotta say. I’m really shocked that this $29,900, 2br/1.75ba, 1,100sqft condo is still on the market.

I don’t represent this property. But I do live at this condo complex and I think anybody should beg, borrow or steal to live here –especially if you are looking for something very inexpensive. I’ve been inside. It looks almost like nobody lived there.

Click here for the listing information. Call me if you have questions: 602-456-9388.

Y’all know that I dig the Cromford report. Then again, I also like to follow congressional and legislative redistricting. So, I guess I kinda like data. Sue me.

So, my friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title Company likes do do a month-in-review summary. Very handy.

What might just look like a collection of charts and numbers is actually a great overview of the state of our growth and change in Phoenix. Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re gearing up to buy a home, its time to step on the gas. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.

Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re looking to buy a home, better step on it now. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend looks likely to continue.

Here are the Market Headlines:

• We are slowly climbing out of the pricing low point from the second half of August to the first half of September.
•  Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.
• Foreclosure activity is declining and REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

Homes Under 100,000 to 200,000

• The demand for homes between $50,000 and $150,000 is particularly strong as investors chase homes to add to their rental portfolio but demand from owner occupiers remains relatively weak.
• As the supply from foreclosures has fallen, short sales are becoming a larger part of the picture.

Homes 200,000 to 400,000

• Above $200,000 the market continues to decline, but only slightly.
• High sales volumes at the low end this sector is pushing overall pricing higher.
• Average sales price per sq. ft. is rising for homes under $200,000 and stable up to $400,000.

Homes above 400,000

• Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.
• The overall average and median sales pricing is now on an upward trend.
• Buying interest in homes over $3,000,000 is dramatically down compared to this spring.
  

  See how the days inventory was at its high in 2010, but has dropped dramatically. This is a buying spree.

This just in from the desk of my friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans:

There were some changes other than weather as of October 1^st this year. For those of your looking to buy a home, there were several mortgage changes effective last Saturday.

For those looking into FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans the maximum loan has been reduced state wide. As you may recall, in 2008 a temporary boost to Federal Housing Administration-guaranteed loan was passed. That boost expired October 1^st and

In Maricopa County new loan limits are:

Anyone looking into VA Funding has noticed a decrease, sometime more than a full % for purchases, on funding fees.  Across the board these are positive changes, as the VA loan is already perhaps the best loan option available for today’s veterans and active duty service men and women.

Regular Military Funding:

Reserves and National Guard:

Beginning October 1, 2011, USDA Rural Loans have annual mortgage insurance (3%, paid monthly) and reduced the upfront guarantee fee on purchases from 3.5% to 2%. Unlike FHA insured loans, USDA’s annual insurance fee is for the lifetime of the loan, which is definitely something to think about when considering loans.

Loans can be complicated, but they don’t have to be. Contact Jeannie at (602) 385-4812 today for help.

And, of course, give me a call at 602-456-9388 for property questions.

It was nice to see this article in the Arizona Republic yesterday talking about a “rebound” in the condo market in Phoenix.

I don’t know if I would go so far as to call it a rebound. In fact, several of the projects the article talks about are still not sold –they turned in to apartment buildings instead.

However, the article does point out something that I’ve been saying for a while: an increasing number of people want that dense, urban experience. That is why 44 Monroe, for example, filled up with renters so quickly.

So, while you can still get a great condo downtown and in CenPho right now for much, much less than you could in 2006, and while the market for condos has not completely righted itself it is true that the inventory of condos in CenPho has dropped sharply over the past year. They are being gobbled up!

This demand should be an indicator to anybody, whether buying a house or a condo, that urban centers are going to be in great demand once the market stabilizes. If you are holding on to your house to sell later, have hope. If you are thinking about getting in to CenPho, now is a good time because it will be more expensive a year from now.

I’ve made the jump from John Hall to HomeSmart. I’m sure this means nearly nothing to most of you. But I want to explain to you why and what this means.

I chose to work with my former broker, John Hall & Associates, because they were locally owned. Re/Max, Realty Executives, Century 21 –these are all nation-wide broker and really, really big companies.

But, like many of you, I believe that we need to keep our dollars in our local economy. The fees that brokers take from agents could go to some corporate headquarters somewhere in Ohio, or they could stay here and add to our economy. This is why I am a member of Local First Arizona and I support locally-owned businesses.

Well, John Hall sold itself to a company called Realty One Group, out of Nevada. It did not take me long to realize that this was in opposition to what I believe.

I was happy to learn, however, that HomeSmart is locally owned and originates in Arizona. They have well over 1,000 agents and a very effective system for processing transactions.

This means little or nothing to you, the buyer or seller. But I want you to know that, even in decisions like this, I am committed to CenPho and my state.

I appreciate your business.