Well, its market analysis time again. That’s right, gear up because I’m going to throw some wonky charts at you. Don’t be too intimidated. I promise to be gentle.
It’s short and sweet, really. The number of pending foreclosures continues to go down. The entire pie is shrinking, leaving an increasing percentage of the pie as short sale homes. So let’s get down to business and see what I’m really talking about.

“REO” you’re probably wondering what does that mean? Simply just a fancy term for a foreclosed property.
“AWC” simply means Active with Contingencies. In other words it is simply a short sale home. The buyer has already agreed upon the price yet, their waiting on the bank for the final decision.Have you noticed a trend yet? All of the categories are shrinking therefore the inventory of homes, are going down.
What’s going to happen next you ask? The prices start to go up because scarcity creates demand.

The numbers of pending foreclosures are taking a dive and it doesn’t look pretty.
Have you heard about the new wave foreclosures based on nation-wide estimates of how many people are slacking on their house payment? This is completely misleading for three reasons:

1.   Nation-wide averages are not Arizona.
2. It is easy to double count those people who are late, but not in foreclosures and those who are late and in foreclosures.
3. Finally, the banks will not sell more properties than the market will bear. Hello everyone.  They want the prices to go up, not down.

Heck, if the banks are sitting on a bunch of homes. Please let them out! My clients who are on their 6^th offer after being beat out by cash buyers would love to see some more homes in their horizon!
What does all of this mean for you? It means that the market is becoming more competitive and the days of low-balling on prices are long gone.

If you have more questions about the market, please contact me at  (602) 456-9388

I gotta say. I’m really shocked that this $29,900, 2br/1.75ba, 1,100sqft condo is still on the market.

I don’t represent this property. But I do live at this condo complex and I think anybody should beg, borrow or steal to live here –especially if you are looking for something very inexpensive. I’ve been inside. It looks almost like nobody lived there.

Click here for the listing information. Call me if you have questions: 602-456-9388.

Y’all know that I dig the Cromford report. Then again, I also like to follow congressional and legislative redistricting. So, I guess I kinda like data. Sue me.

So, my friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title Company likes do do a month-in-review summary. Very handy.

What might just look like a collection of charts and numbers is actually a great overview of the state of our growth and change in Phoenix. Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re gearing up to buy a home, its time to step on the gas. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.

Home inventory is down significantly from where it was this time last year, so if you’re looking to buy a home, better step on it now. Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend looks likely to continue.

Here are the Market Headlines:

• We are slowly climbing out of the pricing low point from the second half of August to the first half of September.
•  Unless we get a major change in the market this slight upward trend is likely to continue.
• Foreclosure activity is declining and REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

Homes Under 100,000 to 200,000

• The demand for homes between $50,000 and $150,000 is particularly strong as investors chase homes to add to their rental portfolio but demand from owner occupiers remains relatively weak.
• As the supply from foreclosures has fallen, short sales are becoming a larger part of the picture.

Homes 200,000 to 400,000

• Above $200,000 the market continues to decline, but only slightly.
• High sales volumes at the low end this sector is pushing overall pricing higher.
• Average sales price per sq. ft. is rising for homes under $200,000 and stable up to $400,000.

Homes above 400,000

• Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.
• The overall average and median sales pricing is now on an upward trend.
• Buying interest in homes over $3,000,000 is dramatically down compared to this spring.
  

  See how the days inventory was at its high in 2010, but has dropped dramatically. This is a buying spree.

This just in from the desk of my friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans:

There were some changes other than weather as of October 1^st this year. For those of your looking to buy a home, there were several mortgage changes effective last Saturday.

For those looking into FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans the maximum loan has been reduced state wide. As you may recall, in 2008 a temporary boost to Federal Housing Administration-guaranteed loan was passed. That boost expired October 1^st and

In Maricopa County new loan limits are:

Anyone looking into VA Funding has noticed a decrease, sometime more than a full % for purchases, on funding fees.  Across the board these are positive changes, as the VA loan is already perhaps the best loan option available for today’s veterans and active duty service men and women.

Regular Military Funding:

Reserves and National Guard:

Beginning October 1, 2011, USDA Rural Loans have annual mortgage insurance (3%, paid monthly) and reduced the upfront guarantee fee on purchases from 3.5% to 2%. Unlike FHA insured loans, USDA’s annual insurance fee is for the lifetime of the loan, which is definitely something to think about when considering loans.

Loans can be complicated, but they don’t have to be. Contact Jeannie at (602) 385-4812 today for help.

And, of course, give me a call at 602-456-9388 for property questions.

You know that Phoenix continues to “grow up” when it develops a healthy sketch comedy community. Enter stage left: First Friday Night Live.

Amongst the hustle of the First Friday art walk lies the Firehouse, a gallery which plays host to provocative exhibits, musicians, and local fire dancers all month long. After the First Friday vendors pack up and the art walk teens return home before curfew, the firehouse continues to burn the midnight oil. This Friday, the cast and crew of First Friday Night Live will kick off their second season of sidesplitting sketch and stand up on the stage behind The Firehouse.

The cast of seventeen local actors and comedians along with a group of dedicated writers collaborate all month long creating, writing, and practicing original scenes. In addition to the six nightly sketches, the hour and a half performance will include stand up from the cast, musical guests, as well as the firehouse’s signature fire dancers.  In total, the cast and crew are more than 60 dedicated members strong.

Michael23, a local artist and show founder is looking forward to the second season and the knowledge that comes with it. The first season ran September to March, with two “uncomfortably cold nights,” in January and February that changed the course of this season. To avoid the cold Arizona nights, FFNL has decide to split the season, staging shows October to December and then March to June with two FFNL events in between.

The show is put up every month on a “shoestring budget,” says Michael, “We hope to break even at the end of this season.” Tickets are available pre-sale for five dollars online or the Firehouse Gallery and Lawn Gnome Publishing Bookstore on first Friday. Tickets at the door are seven. You can even buy season tickets for forty dollars on their website which comes with a free t-shirt to boot. The show also streams live online, for those who need there FFNL fix in bed.

If you’re interested in finding out more about FFNL or joining the production you can find information on their site.

First Friday Night Live’s first show of the season premieres at 11pm this Friday at the Firehouse.

The City of Phoenix is now offering a $15,000 loan towards closing costs and down payment to purchase a newly renovated “Move-in Ready” homes through their Neighborhood Stabilization Program.

The Neighborhood Stabilization Program is an effort in response to the number of vacant foreclosures in Phoenix neighborhoods. Housing programs are popping up all over the Southwest in hopes of turning foreclosures into affordable, refurbished homes and enhancing neighborhood curb appeal.

NSP is offering an extensive catalog of renovated properties in established neighborhoods as well as providing guidance through the entire process.

To qualify, home buyers must meet these requirements:

1. Applicants must meet the income guidelines for household Family size. For Example, A family of 4 must have an income at or below $78,600 annually to receive the loan.
2. Candidate should be able to qualify for a 15 or 30 year fixed mortgage
3. Though you don’t have to be a first time home owner, you can’t currently be on title on any residential property.
4. Applicants must be able to contribute one half of the home’s required cash down payment for a min. $1,000. For example, a $100,000 home would require a $1750 down payment.
5. All loan hopefuls have to take a two hour one-on-one credit counseling and an 8 hour home buyer education class

A word of caution: I have helped buyers through this program. Half of the time it went smoothly and relatively quickly. The other half of the time it took longer and everybody was pulling their hair out. Now, to be fair, that was mostly because the listing agent’s contractors were not doing the basic things that the city inspectors asked of them.

Further, that was in 2010. Now NSP has homes that are already renovated. So, this is a whole new world from when the program just got started.

Regardless, families state-wide are in a great position to be homeowners in great phoenix neighborhoods. My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans let me know all about this program and, as a mentioned a few weeks ago, she is experienced in these loans and could be a huge help in the process.

You can visit www.phoenix.gov/nsphome to view the Move In Ready list of available homes or give me a call today at 602-456-9388.

It was nice to see this article in the Arizona Republic yesterday talking about a “rebound” in the condo market in Phoenix.

I don’t know if I would go so far as to call it a rebound. In fact, several of the projects the article talks about are still not sold –they turned in to apartment buildings instead.

However, the article does point out something that I’ve been saying for a while: an increasing number of people want that dense, urban experience. That is why 44 Monroe, for example, filled up with renters so quickly.

So, while you can still get a great condo downtown and in CenPho right now for much, much less than you could in 2006, and while the market for condos has not completely righted itself it is true that the inventory of condos in CenPho has dropped sharply over the past year. They are being gobbled up!

This demand should be an indicator to anybody, whether buying a house or a condo, that urban centers are going to be in great demand once the market stabilizes. If you are holding on to your house to sell later, have hope. If you are thinking about getting in to CenPho, now is a good time because it will be more expensive a year from now.

I’ve made the jump from John Hall to HomeSmart. I’m sure this means nearly nothing to most of you. But I want to explain to you why and what this means.

I chose to work with my former broker, John Hall & Associates, because they were locally owned. Re/Max, Realty Executives, Century 21 –these are all nation-wide broker and really, really big companies.

But, like many of you, I believe that we need to keep our dollars in our local economy. The fees that brokers take from agents could go to some corporate headquarters somewhere in Ohio, or they could stay here and add to our economy. This is why I am a member of Local First Arizona and I support locally-owned businesses.

Well, John Hall sold itself to a company called Realty One Group, out of Nevada. It did not take me long to realize that this was in opposition to what I believe.

I was happy to learn, however, that HomeSmart is locally owned and originates in Arizona. They have well over 1,000 agents and a very effective system for processing transactions.

This means little or nothing to you, the buyer or seller. But I want you to know that, even in decisions like this, I am committed to CenPho and my state.

I appreciate your business.

You’ve heard me ramble on about how great it is to live in Central Phoenix. It’s the truth! CenPho is the place to live and offers residents so much that other cities just don’t offer.

But, check this out. Here’s another reason you should consider moving in to CenPho if you are not already here: a long commute may increase your chances of divorce by 40%. Really.

One recent study in particular conducted by the Umea University in Sweden showed that there was a large increase in the risk of divorce with an increased commute.

OK. I’m being a little facetious. But there is probably some truth here. The two hours you are NOT travelling to and from work you could spend with your main squeeze at the Phoenix Art Museum, or one of the upteen thousand new restaurants downtown.

One thing the study does not mention is the importance of the aesthetic on our lives. Even though Phoenix has torn town waaay too much of its architectural heritage, what’s left still gives people something that the burbs can’t –a sense of space and identity.

A sense of history really brings out the artistic side of people with architecture and individuality when it comes to homes and businesses.

The various cultures and demographics of everyone living in CenPho make it so unique and lively that there is something for everyone. I’m constantly reminded of Richard Florida’s book The Rise of the Creative Class.  Its kinda old news now. Remember when he came to Phoenix in about 2003 to speak and we filled up the Orpheum? Much of what he said has held true, despite the economic downtown

1) If you build an organic (versus top-down) community, the creative class will come.

2) Areas with dense urban centers and creative outlets survive economic downturn better than other areas.

This is true of Phoenix. We saw it ten years ago and we see it today.

I’m just sayin’.