Last week, we saw how understanding relevant data is vital to how I inform my gut instincts as an agent.
This week, let’s look at how data on historic neighborhoods informs my gut and how what I’m seeing in several “overflow areas” plays into it. Homes in historic neighborhoods are getting more and more expensive, and they will continue to do so as people who value those homes will continue to buy just outside the historic areas. Why? Simply because there is a finite number of them and more people want homes with that character.
So, over-time more people have renovated historic neighborhoods that neighbor the original historic neighborhoods. The supply increases.
This “spillover” dynamic has given us our 35 historic neighborhoods. Specifically, neighborhoods that were seen as “not ready for prime time” are improving right next to the current neighborhoods.
The first historic neighborhood in Phoenix was Roosevelt. Garfield, FQ Story, Willow, Encanto, Palmcroft, and others followed. People around them started saying:
Wait, we have older homes. We either don’t want to or we can’t afford to buy in the historic districts. Or, we believe our neighborhood is unique historically. Let’s apply for historic designation here.
The number of neighborhoods with historic designation has been increasing over the last 30 years, and very dramatically over the last 10 years. Because of my expertise, immersion in the data, and instincts, I know where the spillover is going to happen next. I’m seeing a lot of renovation in areas which you should not pass over for consideration when looking for a home.
Another thing to look for are the “historic-adjacent” neighborhoods. These may never get historic designation, but they benefit from their proximity to historic neighborhoods.
Example: the Woodlea and Melrose districts at 7th avenue.
The northern of Woodlea is Glenrosa Ave. Technically, north of Glenrosa is not historic because not enough people maintained the original condition of their homes there and not enough people wanted it to be historic. Homes in the non-historic neighborhood, are much more expensive and enjoy greater stability than they woiuld if they weren’t right next to the historic neighborhood of Woodlea.
What about the east side of 7th AVe where the houses are very similar to the ones on 7th Avenue? Unfortunately, they don’t have that historic designation to benefit from.
I’m seeing neighborhoods that were formerly avoided to some degree by agents, but we’re starting to see some good renovations.
Specifically, I’m seeing a lot of renovations in the listings west of 19th avenue, south of Indian School, and as far south as Encanto. These have a lot of navy brick homes, which are hard to find and very sturdy. New home construction is too expensive and almost never brick. Brick is more stable, better for deterring termites. These were homes built in the 1940’s and 1950’s for the most parts.
I’m also seeing some nice renovations in the area of 24th street and Thomas; also brick homes. In some areas it’s street by street, where one street is great—with a lot of renovations—and the next street isn’t so good. Another area where I’m seeing a lot of renovation is east of 16th street, west of the 51 freeway, and south of Indian School. Even compared to a year ago, it’s improved noticeably. It’s happening in that area because it’s spilling over from the Coronado historic neighborhood (which is getting oversold: too many buyers, not enough houses), so people that aren’t finding things under $200,000 are pushing over to the 16th street areas.
That area has been a little rough in past years, but you’re going to start seeing more and more renovations just outside of the traditional historic neighborhoods, because the historic neighborhoods are pricing higher. Classic supply and demand. You might consider looking into these 16th street areas because of the action that’s going on there.
There are other neighborhoods further to the east that are going up in price as well, on the other side of the 51, going all the way over to Scottsdale. Give me a call if you’re curious about that.
Shoot, give me a call if you’re curious about other historic spillover areas you’ve got on your mind as well.
I look forward to talking with you. I can be reached at 602-456-9388
