Last week we talked about the headlines on the state of real estate in Phoenix as reported by the news media. We saw that the problem is, no one can see beyond about 3 to 6 months’ time, which is why organizations often contradict themselves in their predictions. To really nail this issue we’ll look soberly at two final headline topics. To assist me is Tina Tamboer, from the always insightful The Cromford Report.

First up, Affordability:

Look at how fast and ridiculous these headlines occur.

August 13, 2013, Housingwire – “Only 69.3% of homes were deemed affordable.”

That’s actually a very good number. Between 60% and 75% is normal. If it’s much higher than that means that luxury is not selling. You have to have a certain percentage of luxury in your market. Day after day after day, you can see headlines about how horrible that roughly 69% is, but it’s actually a good number. ~ Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

August 14, 2013, DS news.com – “Housing Affordability Drops To 4-Year Low Ends Rates, Prices Rise”

To say that housing affordability drops to a four-year low makes a person feel like saying, “Oh my God, ‘We’re in a bubble.’ But when you look at it, we were in such crazy affordability. When 87% of all homes that sell are affordable to a family making the median income, that’s really high. That just means that there isn’t any luxury selling; that that $500,000-$900,000 market is dead. There was no jumbo financing available for anyone to buy that doesn’t conform to a conventional loan. So, as the jumbo financing came back in is when you see that luxury market start taking market share and then you see your affordability rate go down. People think it’s bad, but it just means that luxury is coming back.  ~ Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

August 16, 2013, Wealth Daily – “One Homes Aren’t Affordable.”

August 18, 2013, USA Today – “Housing Affordability Falls With Rising Prices”

August 26, 2013, NBC news – “Home Prices Across the US Defy Gravity.”

September 17, 2013, The Week – “Is Housing Affordability Going Down The Drain?”

Look at that one month spread between mid-August and September 17. The headlines have affordability just dropping down until they declare it’s going down the drain. Such dramatics. Seriously? Give me a break.

Here’s an example of conflicting headlines. Even on the same day. This is about interest rates.

October 1, 2013, US Finance Post – “Mortgage Rates Rise For The First Time In Three Weeks, October 1.”

October 1, 2013, Zillow – “30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Continued Downward Spiral.”

October 2, 2013, Mortgage News Daily – “Mortgage Rates Paralyzed By Uncertainty.”

So how’s the consumer supposed to gather their information online? Do you believe everything you read? If you see on the Internet it must be true, right? It’s hard to figure out what the truth is, among so much drama and so many differing opinions. Unless you’re knee-deep in this stuff every day it can become very difficult to figure out whether you should buy or not.

The answer is knowing what to pay attention to more than who and educating yourself.

That’s really the key.

That’s where the data comes in to help you on your individual level. For example, it’s true the data shows that payments today are similar to those in 2008. But it also shows that they’re similar now to 2003 levels. It’s just above $1000 a month. At the peak of 2005, you would’ve paid $1900 a month for a 2000 square ft. home, paying $375,000. Today, that same home is just over $250,000 and your payment is just over $1000 a month; which is just where it was in 2003. So actually, now we are at 2005 prices and 2003 payments. ~ Tina Tamboer

All the media talks about is that affordability is the lowest it’s been since 2008. They just didn’t go back far enough. If you go back farther, that’s where you see that we’re not in a bubble. We are not in a bad situation.

This chasm is what a bad situation really looks like:

The point of this graph is the comparison between where we were in mid-2006 and where we are now at the tail end of 2013. We’re not seeing anything very alarming. We’re coming back down to normal (blue rectangle) after a period of extremely unusual affordability.

If you want to buy or sell, and you want the truth in the headlines you’re reading, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

The 2013 McDowell Mountain Music Festival (MMMF) is coming up Friday, 22 March – Sunday, 24 March and this year, not 10 days away, it’s goin’ down in downtown Phoenix! If past events serve as an indicator, crowds are expected to be in the thousands! The festival grounds are at Margaret T. Hance park (at the east side of the park, off 3rd Street, just north of Moreland) at 200 E Moreland St, Phoenix.

This is a super-duper, like, really big deal my friends. If you’ve been in downtown for more than about 5 years, you should know automatically why. If you have not, read on. Well, even if you do know why, please read on. No use just stopping here.

Prior headliners include The Flaming Lips, The Black Crowes, Ratdog, Gov’t Mule and The John Butler Trio. By 2011, MMMF had raised over $500,000 for local charities. Fully 100% of proceeds this year will benefit Phoenix Children’s Hospital, Ear Candy Charity, and uMom New Day Centers. The event started at West World in 2004, moved to The Compound in 2011 and in 2013 digs its roots into downtown Phoenix.

The MMMF is a big deal. There will be thousands of people, camping, eating, and drinking. This is a huge influx of cash to downtown businesses. But I don’t think people get it.” Downtown advocate and Arizona Preservation Foundation president, Jim McPherson.

Well, we get it, Jim. And I’m here to tell all my friends about it, too. They’ll get it. And they have friends who’ll get it, too, you see, so they’ll share it and… so on, and so on! You’ll all want tickets, of course, and a peak at this year’s band line-up. (You will notice the link in the last sentence is for the new local venue called Last Exit Live. See below. Buying your tickets through there will help a new local venue establish itself.)

The 2013 McDowell Mountain Music Festival line-up:

Balkan Beat Box        JGB Band        Deer Tick             Les Claypool’s Duo de Twang             Dr. Dog              The Roots             Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros
The Shins            Heartless Bastards                 Umphrey’s McGee                  Iration              Yonder Mountain String Band  

And while you’re thinking about downtown Phoenix, here’s an excerpt from our next Get Your PHX event invite.

For our March 21 Get Your PHX, I’m very excited to announce that we are going to get an honest to goodness preview of a new downtown venue, Last Exit Live—the local stage which will feature the  McDowell Mountain Music Festival—before they open!

Last Exit Live is the Official Sponsor and organizer for the Local Stage at McDowell Mountain Music Festival this year. They’re coordinating with the Get Your PHX Team to bring you a Local Stage Pre-party and the soft opening of Last Exit Live.

So I’d love to hear what you think about the Festival: Is there any real value to downtown Phoenix to having the music festival here this year? Do you think it will make any lasting impact for our rising city?

Thank you again to Amber Harrold of Camelbackpackers Hostel. Amber and her family put out an incredible spread for us, including local craft beer, wine and even camel-shaped cookies. If she went to those lengths for us, you can feel good recommending your friends to say at CamelbackPackers Hostel when they come through town.

As we roll in to the cooler weather we start to think about family and all of the holidays centered on spending time together.

This month, please join us for our first annual Get Your PHX Family Thanksgiving. You’ve all been so supportive of Get Your PHX and Cenpho businesses for so long that you really are part of the family. So, before you head off for your “other” family dinners in late November, please join your Get Your PHX family for one special thanksgiving meal.

Hob Nobs owners Bob and Sharilyn are preparing a very warm reception for us. In addition to their regular, vast menu of goodies, Hob Nobs is offering a Thanksgiving Sandwich special for just $10 -that’s a turkey and cranberry sandwich and a drink. In addition, they are offering a $1.99 craft bottle of beer, to be announced.

Hob Nobs is also organizing for their most popular musical act, DirtMusic, to entertain us for Get Your PHX. This band has travelled around the world to play its mix of alternative blues and bluegrass. You don’t want to miss this.

And, of course, I will be hosting the monthly raffle. Don’t miss out. Your PHX family misses you!

The folks at Co+Hoots have been temporarily working out of monOrchid for a couple months while their new office digs are finished, further downtown.

We’ve had a great time together, but when they leave there will be a few coveted spaces open around here. This is a great place to work.

I should know, I work here. We have a coffee shop, inexpensive but urban-hip office space, access to specialists in all fields and other amenities.

Check out this PDF document with the expected upcoming vacancies and the prices.

Give me a call at 602-456-9388 for information.

Many of you know the role that monOrchid played in the establishment of First Fridays over 13 years ago, back when people still hosted raves and Clinton was still President.

You could not do First Friday without stopping first at monOrchid.

The recession slowed business for a while, but owner Wayne Rainey powered through with a rag tag fleet of artists, architects, designers and the like. Now he is announcing new additions and new incentives to his “creative  co-lab.”

First, for the uninitiated, a creative co-lab is a space where you can have office space at a great price and access to other folks in your industry. While you don’t necessarily need to be an award winning photographer, for instance (I’m not and I’m in here!), being here gives you access to folks with whom you can collaborate, market and create new ideas.

You also have free access to the conference room, wireless and a kitchen. Soon to come is a media room where you can print, cut, copy and touch-up. You can also have access to the industry standard cyclorama and event space.

The folks over at Co-Hoots have proven recently that there is a huge market demand for this and we all share the same vision for a creative hub in downtown.

So, what is new? First, the Songbird Coffee and Teahouse plans to open by July 9th, which will greatly increase foot traffic and give you the much-needed caffeine to get through your busy day.

Second, a bunch of us are moving in to help make this dream a reality: Get Your PHX, Stacey Champion and Cesar Chaves Design are the most recent.

Third, the massive loft spaces, which can be broken up in to affordable creative stalls, are available with a new price structure.

Finally, if you sign a contract between now and August 30th, you will get 25% off event space and studio rental for a year.

This is your chance to get inexpensive bricks and mortar in a reinvigorated downtown establishment.

See this link for floor plans, availability and prices.

Please call me at 602-456-9388 or ken@getyourphx.com for more information.

My clients are renting a 1,500 square foot townhouse at Portland 38, downtown. It is a great opportunity to live in the heart of the city and still have comforts such as a personal garage, modern appliances and new construction. Check this out!

These townhouses were built in 2007 with a great industrial style and centered around modern living. The spaces are open, fresh and clean. Check out this link to look at the listing. And, of course, give me a call at 602-456-9388 if you have questions.

I’m very proud to announce a new listing that I have at the widely-coveted Villa del Coronado.

Please see this link for the listing information.

These condos, built in 1958 are one of the few quintessential examples of Mid-Century Modern design left in Phoenix. Did you know that one of our previous governors used to own a property here?

I use the word “coveted”, above because this community is absolutely pristine and sought-after by Mid-Century Modern buffs.

The owner of this property has renovated the bathrooms with beautiful modern features, opened up the great room. The Villa de Coronado community has two salt water pools, with one heated. It is also one of the few properties downtown with individual garage parking.

The community takes care of everything, even some maintenance for each unit. That way you can get out and explore, wether you are going across the street to the Phoenix Art Museum or to the light rail stop about 300 feet away.

These properties are co-operative condos, a rare breed in Phoenix. As such, the properties are kept in immaculate condition by people who are very particular about the type of property they own. It means that if you own one, you actually own a portion of a corporation. As such, all of your taxes, electricity, gas and other usual HOA fees are paid out of one monthly fee. It also means that these properties can only change hands by paying cash, with one exception –“seller carrybacks”. Financing is not an option.

To put it another way, because you are buying in to a corporation a lender is not likely to give you a loan.

What is a “seller carryback,” you ask? Check out this post from way back in 2010 about seller carrybacks and how they work. Basically, you can buy it directly from the owner through installments.

If you want more information about this unique opportunity, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

My clients have just listed their new property for rent at 7th St. and Portland.

These townhouses were built in 2007, have all the latest modern features, secure garage space and pool access.

You can walk to First Fridays, or any number of great downtown activities.

Only $1,400 per month for a 2br/2ba 1,548 square foot townhouse!

Please contact me at ken@getyourphx.com or 602-456-9388 for more information.

We’ve reached a critical point as a city. Now in our hundredth year, the city of Phoenix has a terrible habit of demolishing it’s own history. Most of our historic properties are gone. As a city we need to constantly work to preserve historic properties in Phoenix.

The Lugo Bakery and W.L. Bobo House are two historic sites, built between 1910 and 1920 looking for investors to save the structures from disrepair. Written assessments have been done on both structures, but they need willing buyers to rescue them.

The Luis Lugo Bakery known originally as the La Pantellera was constructed in 1917. It’s a 2,000 square foot commercial structure, complete with a basement, 1,300 square foot addition, and vacant lot for possible parking. Overall, the Lugo Bakery is in poor condition.

Poor design, haphazard construction techniques,weathering, neglect, and unsympathetic renovations have not been kind to certain exterior building elements which require immediate attention to prevent further deterioration and/or lost of historic fabric. This building is in need of some serious TLC, ranging just under $400,000 according to the Building Condition Assessment Report.

The building has strong potential as an office, art gallery, sandwich/coffee shop, or bakery (duh). The bakery and grocery store was in continuous use for
nearly 50 years. The Luis Lugo Bakery is a rare example of an early Hispanic commercial
property in downtown Phoenix and should be saved

The property has a two story private residence attached, which is also in disrepair. This update is estimated around $170,000

The W.L. Bobo House  is in the McKinley Park subdivision. The W. L. Bobo House, a charming Craftsman bungalow at the southwest corner of 13th & Roosevelt Streets, is threatened with demolition.  It’s on a double lot and has a porte cochere on the 13th Street side and a detached garage at the rear. The house has numerous architectural features that set it apart as an unique design. Character-defining features include:

• Medium-pitched intersecting gable roofs
• Gables with decoratively cut wood shingle siding
• Broad porch on stuccoed brick piers, supported on massive, tapered cobblestone bases
• Cobblestone foundation wall at porch, and battered cobblestone chimney mass
•  Trellised porte-cochere
• Double-hung and casement wood windows, some with leaded and beveled glass

It’s a true fixer upper, but the building is in pretty good shape considering it’s from 1912. The house needs new roofing, the foundation needs repair, and some window fixes and a fresh coat of paint would do it some good. The interior needs all new plumbing, heating, electric, and replacement woodwork. Most of the fixes are minor, and according to the  Building Condition Assessment Report the total updates would cost approximately $143,240.  This residence could have a future at a single family home or a business/art gallery depending on the buyer.

Despite the cost , rehabilitating the residence would undoubtedly broaden the historical setting of the Lugo Bakery and Bobo House and add charm to the street scape. Historic Properties like these are priceless to our community’s history and future.