We found out in part 2 that While Prices Are Rising in Central Phoenix in 2012, they’ve risen most dramatically under $150,000. The high end properties of $800,000 and upwards have increased in price, but not nearly as dramatically. (Before I jump-in, I want to again recognize Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to share their work from the Cromford Report which is mixed in with my take that follows.)

The monthly average price per square foot in greater Phoenix in this chart to the left is very broad. Obviously, not every home is going to be at $100 per square foot, especially in central Phoenix.

Jump your eyes down to this little blue square in the center of the next chart, which will come up later.

 I’m going to be putting everything into the historical context of that square, which is Non-Distressed homes between 2005 and mid-2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County.

In this next chart, below, which shows the price per square foot from 2001 to Aug 2012, try to ignore the $190 Close Encounters peak  and take a look at the far left line. That’s the 2001 price lines. They were basically at about $100/sf at that time. Again, this is for the greater Phoenix average per square foot.

Based on that, here’s my rule of thumb: “Did you buy your home around 2001 or 2002 or before that?” You’re probably going to be okay to sell now, because you’ve survived the worst of it. If you’re thinking, “Gosh, I could really sell my home now”, or if you know someone who’s thinking that, make sure you both take a look at your specific area, before making the leap.

I know. What a relief.

Do we want to get back to over $190 per square foot, to that place where the UFO’s are landing on our mountain of Devil’s Peak? Heck no, not anytime soon. What this long-term context tells you is we do have a little bit of ways to go still. This is a great way to look at this to tell whether people are potentially underwater or those who are likely to be okay.

Next up: Median Sales Price.

We’re back to the little blue square I mentioned earlier: people who are potentially undewater from the 2005 to mid 2009 range.

When you take this median sales price, for single-family homes, all the way across the board, you can see it’s pretty obvious that during those years, for those people who are non-distressed (which is when we saw the big bubble and crash) these are the people who have not sold yet.

They’re potentially underwater, we don’t know for sure, but they’re not considered distressed or late on their payments.

So what’s going to happen with all of those? Are they suddenly going to find themselves in the market? Say, a year from now, when the prices get a little bit better for some of those people?

That’s going to be something that you’re going to want to watch.

I love this next particular chart. This tells you how much growth we have and how much potential you have if you happen to be an investor.

The long-term timeline with just general growth, year over year, (taking into account population, prices) is going to keep up at a regular pace.

This is a kind of equilibrium with a pretty good number of houses for sale that people will want to buy. This long distance in this chart is great because however long it takes us to reach that point, there’s still the potential for you to either buy something as an investment, and get some return on that investment, or buy a home and know that you didn’t buy it above what it should be worth.

Next, let’s look at greater Phoenix wide and then we’ll drill down closer into some specific zip codes. This is encouraging stuff. Okay, so look at this section listed as under $200,000.

Look at the price and notice that price per square foot has gone up 33% since August 2011. That’s citywide.

Now hop down to the next chart and look at the similar thing for greater Phoenix, between $200,000 and $500,000.

Drill down between $200,000 and $300,000, for just these zip codes, look at this huge 14% growth!

This speaks to a premise  that I’ve been pushing for a very long time: in central Phoenix, especially around the light rail and historic neighborhoods, prices dropped the least and will come back the fastest.

This is something to keep in mind as density continues.

And $500,000 and $800,000, in the same areas in the same zip code?

Look at this 18% growth!

That’s from the lowest point to where we are right now, that’s a good place to stay.

$800,000-$1 million? See below: The growth is 5%. Again, that’s in the Camelback corridor area.

“Under Contract” homes is what this next chart is all about. We’ll end today’s brief on this. It offers a lot of insight.

If a house is under contract, you don’t know the price at which the house is under contract for. It’s private information. Let’s say you go to the multiple listing service and look at the sales price of the house and its $200,000. The next day, it says it’s “pending”. It still says $200,000 but that property could have a contract for $215,000 or $190,000. You just don’t know.

But MLS does because agents must report it

It’s in the system. They can’t tell you what it is. But they can report an aggregate.

So when you hear “Under contract. Legally average list price per square foot.” That means that on this date, 10/1/12, everything under contract was under contract for an average of $93.88 per square foot.

Those hosues aren’t going to close for 30 days, though. So, when you look at this chart and see that right now it’s $93.88 per square foot, that’s the amount that is going to be realized, most likely, in the market 30 or 40 days from now.

If you’re following this chart and you suddenly see this line turn a different direction, you have a very good indication that 30 days from now, that may be what the market is going to start to look like.

That’s as much of a crystal ball, as I think you are ever going to see.

The thing that’s impacting all of these numbers, especially in places like the Camelback corridor, and those other zip codes, is new-home sales recorded, as in “What are the homebuilders doing?”

Great Question. In part 4 of our Get Your Phx Market Briefing, we’ll find out that very thing…

In part 1, I ended with an argument I often hear from people after I describe what a “normal foreclosure market” looks like. There’s always going to be some percentage of people who should not have bought a house and now they’re upside down or late on payments.

The real interesting bit we can see is that there will still be some foreclosures and short sales coming on the market. The argument I hear some people say is:

All the banks were just holding onto their houses. They just hadn’t been listed yet. You’re not seeing them in the charts and graphs you’re using as evidence.

(Much of my briefing is based on Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. A huge thanks to Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to use their work at my presentation and share it here as well.)

To answer those naysayers, let’s look at the “REO” (which is another way of saying “foreclosed property”, not a band who heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend…). The REO then is where the bank has already repossessed the house and is putting it on the market directly. This chart below is REO and includes everything sold between 2007 and 2012. The big blue Pac-Man looking thing on this chart is sales sold through MLS; in other words, 131,000 homes.

(graph, above)
“Sold wholesale” means some big investor bought a bunch of homes at one time. According to the chart, there are only 961 in escrow. When people talk about where to find this mythical crop of homes held back by the bank, you would find them in “Not yet listed.” Well, that’s a whopping 3,047 –not what I would call a wave of foreclosures.

Supply is down, but it’s also increasing.

This is a very interesting thing. Look at this next graph. If you look at December 2010 (far left) all the way into the future, you see a huge drop in supply. Homes being sold by Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the tiny sliver on top in gray, are few and far between and get a ton of offers when they come on the market.

(graph above)
The last two colors on the chart are short sales (light blue) and normal sales (darker blue).

You can see from this same graph that things are moving back up a little. Does that mean that we’re going to get back up to 35,000? No, because you’d have to have the same kind of event that put us into the recession to get back up to those numbers.

Let’s take that same thing, single family residential inventory, and look at the distressed sales.

It’s declined 77%.

That’s in terms of the active distressed listings. For those who don’t know, AWC means ‘Active With Contingencies’. Look at that chart again. See how it’s called “Distressed SFR Inventory (Excluding AWC)”? This means someone has an accepted offer on a short sale, but they’re waiting for their lender to say it’s okay to precede and close on that property. Let’s break it down a bit.

Look at the far right side of the same chart. There are 1,923 Active Distressed homes. It’s a huge decline. But this is the interesting part. Notice the top right corner of the graph, where it breaks down the percentages of the different price ranges listed.

Rather than do each price point, one at a time, let’s look at the combined total, the 81% of homes that are under $300,000. If you make another chart and take out the HUD homes, the REO’s, and the short sales, and compare those to where the normal sales have been…

…there’s basically no change since November 2011.

So what does this U-shaped area represent? I’m speculating here, but in my professional opinion, the normal sales coming back on the market comprise two types of sales: A) People who bought before 2003 or 2004 (so they are able to sell their house, get their money back, maybe make a little bit of money); or B) People who bought a house in 2008 or 2009—which was my advice to people at that time—and now they flipped it, or renovated it and put it back in the market. Those people are adding to the inventory.

The rebounding economy and stronger job numbers, plus incredibly cheap houses, are why–in this next graph–we went from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes. By “month supply of homes”, what is meant is that if you shut off the tap and prevented homes from being put on the market, how many months would it take to clear out what’s on there? In this case, it would take us one month to get from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes.

This is more drastic than, say, above $1 million homes, but all of this brings me to one point: single family homes that are affordable for most working families will continue to increase, in price and in value, in 2013. That’s even with the increase in inventory that we’ve seen here at the end of 2012.

Prices are rising. This is pretty obvious. You’ve probably heard it in the news. What wasn’t reported on the news, however, is that the rising prices in the last year are only happening at the low ends, under $150,000; far more than they’ve occurred at the high ends. Where’s my evidence? What do I draw from this conclusion? What should you conclude from it?

Stay tuned for Get Your PHX Market Briefing, part 3 where we’ll find out!

If you would like to be part of a future PHX Market Briefing, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

JUMP TO PART 3 OF THE MARKET BRIEFING HERE.

Thank you again to Amber Harrold of Camelbackpackers Hostel. Amber and her family put out an incredible spread for us, including local craft beer, wine and even camel-shaped cookies. If she went to those lengths for us, you can feel good recommending your friends to say at CamelbackPackers Hostel when they come through town.

As we roll in to the cooler weather we start to think about family and all of the holidays centered on spending time together.

This month, please join us for our first annual Get Your PHX Family Thanksgiving. You’ve all been so supportive of Get Your PHX and Cenpho businesses for so long that you really are part of the family. So, before you head off for your “other” family dinners in late November, please join your Get Your PHX family for one special thanksgiving meal.

Hob Nobs owners Bob and Sharilyn are preparing a very warm reception for us. In addition to their regular, vast menu of goodies, Hob Nobs is offering a Thanksgiving Sandwich special for just $10 -that’s a turkey and cranberry sandwich and a drink. In addition, they are offering a $1.99 craft bottle of beer, to be announced.

Hob Nobs is also organizing for their most popular musical act, DirtMusic, to entertain us for Get Your PHX. This band has travelled around the world to play its mix of alternative blues and bluegrass. You don’t want to miss this.

And, of course, I will be hosting the monthly raffle. Don’t miss out. Your PHX family misses you!

For anyone looking to live downtown knows, safe and affordable housing is a commodity. As downtown Phoenix experiences a renewed interest and cultural growth, we as a community need to think about ways to pursue reasonably priced housing options for the increasingly diverse population. Native American Connections has come up with a great housing option, that maybe you didn’t even know existed.

For over 40 years, Native American Connections has built community for our growing, city-dwelling Native American populations. In January, they will be opening mixed-use, mixed-income apartments, Devine Legacy, just across from the Campbell & Central light rail station.

For those of you who don’t know, mixed-income and mixed-use housing is pretty common place across major US cities, but is a fairly recent development in Phoenix.  So what does it mean? Mixed income housing is the idea that increasing diversity of the residents will improve the overall standard of living for the community. In Phoenix, we’re probably more familiar with mixed-use housing which is simply property which is used for both commercial and residential use. Commercial uses can help subsidize projects to allow for affordable or low-income housing.

One of the biggest problems facing mixed-use projects, both nationally and locally, is they require significant public subsidies. Through an IRS program and Arizona Department of Housing allocations, Devine Legacy has been funded through a unique low income tax credit system which allows support from the public as well as the government. This is only one of many projects Native American Connections is pursuing in Phoenix.

Devine Legacy, in addition to it 12000 square foot commercial space, will feature 65 units, ranging from studio apartments to town homes and lofts.   The Apartment includes  artist elements from local artists Randy Kemp and David Montour, high end appliances, ground floor parking, and a public court yard fully equipped with a sound system for community events, not to mention convenient access to the light rail.  The complex is also a part of the LEED Platinum community, which means Devine Legacy homes are  beautiful and safe at an affordable price.

If you’re interested in learning more about the project or units available you can visit their website. Applications are now being accepted for January and February move-ins.

Its that time of year again! The Local First Fall Festival is on!

(Added extra: this year it actually feels like fall!)

Did you know that Arizona is home to more than one hundred local and organic food providers, over one hundred advertising and marketing agencies, more than two hundred art suppliers and venues, and other great local businesses?

I would not blame you if you didn’t know that. It’s not like you hear about it on our local news. (But that’s a different post.)

Local First Arizona is an organization that supports local businesses around the state. The local first philosophy is driven by the benefits the local business have on the economy and community culture. This weekend LFA will be hosting their seventh annual fall festival. The festival boasts a ton of food from independent eateries and 66 local vendors.

Last year over 6,000 participants joined local businesses for family friendly fair. Musicians and bands and bands from across the state will provide entertainment. There will be local wineries and breweries on site for the adults as well as activities, like rock climbing, for the kids.

But why support local businesses? The simplest answer is it’s socially responsible. As our economy comes back, we need to support our local communities first. By patronizing our local businesses, we are directly supporting our own communities by keeping tax dollars in the state.

Join your fellow locavores this Saturday at The Duck and Decanter, 1651 E Camelback, from 10-4 pm. You can read more about Local First Arizona on their website

You’ve probably noticed by now that I am a huge fan of reuse and re-purposing in Phoenix. With all the available space downtown, why not?

The Cathedral Town homes are a great example of adaptive reuse. This building, which used to be owned by the church across the street as rental property, has transformed in to elegant and (actually spacious) urban condos.

The developer, Metro West Development,  took an historic 1913 building and converted it into four modern townhouse-style condo’s ranging in size from 1,674 to 1,886 square feet. Located about 200 feet away from the Arts District light rail stop, the condos are just a short walk from dozens of local restaurants, markets, large entertainment venues, as well as Hance and the Downtown Civic Space Parks.  And though the neighborhood surrounding is great, it’s what’s inside that really gets me excited.

Metro West Development has a history of great work in downtown renovations. The Cathedral Townhomes have been stripped to the bone and rebuilt.  While these homes have been updated, the developer has gone the extra mile to maintaining a historical feel. Homes come with new Kohler fixtures, quartz kitchen countertops, double hung windows (many original that have been restored), and historically accurate high baseboards.

Through the years, I’ve seen many renovations and I’m genuinely impressed by this one. Three of the units are still available. The condos are currently priced in the $200s with a 140/mo HOA fee.

I don’t represent these homes, but I’m happy to show you. Please contact me at 602-456-9388

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You’ve heard me ramble on about how great it is to live in Central Phoenix. It’s the truth! CenPho is the place to live and offers residents so much that other cities just don’t offer.

But, check this out. Here’s another reason you should consider moving in to CenPho if you are not already here: a long commute may increase your chances of divorce by 40%. Really.

One recent study in particular conducted by the Umea University in Sweden showed that there was a large increase in the risk of divorce with an increased commute.

OK. I’m being a little facetious. But there is probably some truth here. The two hours you are NOT travelling to and from work you could spend with your main squeeze at the Phoenix Art Museum, or one of the upteen thousand new restaurants downtown.

One thing the study does not mention is the importance of the aesthetic on our lives. Even though Phoenix has torn town waaay too much of its architectural heritage, what’s left still gives people something that the burbs can’t –a sense of space and identity.

A sense of history really brings out the artistic side of people with architecture and individuality when it comes to homes and businesses.

The various cultures and demographics of everyone living in CenPho make it so unique and lively that there is something for everyone. I’m constantly reminded of Richard Florida’s book The Rise of the Creative Class.  Its kinda old news now. Remember when he came to Phoenix in about 2003 to speak and we filled up the Orpheum? Much of what he said has held true, despite the economic downtown

1) If you build an organic (versus top-down) community, the creative class will come.

2) Areas with dense urban centers and creative outlets survive economic downturn better than other areas.

This is true of Phoenix. We saw it ten years ago and we see it today.

I’m just sayin’.

I’ve had first time home buyer clients who are frustrated by how much distressed property there is in the market. They can’t afford a renovated home, but they can’t afford to fix up the property on their own.

Well, there is an answer.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) offers homebuyers the opportunity to secure a loan known as a 203(k) loan. This loan is administered through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and gives homebuyers the necessary funds to rehabilitate a home.

Many times, a bank will be hesitant and may reject lending money when the home is not habitable. This is where the 203(k) loan comes into play and can help homebuyers obtain the necessary funds to not only buy the home but to purchase the necessary upgrades to make it habitable.

This loan is an incredible opportunity and is coming into play more now than ever since the housing market took a dive. With many people facing foreclosure, they stripped their house of everything that wasn’t, or was, bolted down leaving the house a complete disaster. This loan gives homebuyers the chance to come in and fix up the house.

This does two things: 1) increases the value of the home and surrounding area and 2) boosts the economy of the community by having another family living and buying in the area.

My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans is well versed in helping you get these “fixer-upper” loans. Jeannie has been trained to help guide clients through the entire process.

But as with any mortgage, there are some criteria both the homebuyer and the home must meet:

1)      The homebuyer must meet FHA financing guidelines which means a FICO score of 640 or more and a debt to income ratio of 31/43 (see FHA for more info)

2)      The home must be the primary residence

3)      For the home to qualify, it must be existing for more than one year

4)      The work must be completed by a Licensed General Contractor – sorry do-it-yourselfers

5)      Work starts after you close on the home and must be completed within 6 months

There are also two types of 203(k)s that homeowners can choose from depending on the extent of the work required:

1)      Streamline 203(k) – this includes uncomplicated repairs and improvements to home up to $35,000 and no more than 2 subcontractors needed for entire project

2)      Standard 203K – this is for major repairs and improvements along with structural improvements to property exceeding $35,000 – up to 6 months PITI (principle, interest, taxes and insurance) can be included in mortgage if property cannot be occupied during construction. A Licensed General Contractor is needed if layered work is involved

These 203(k) loans are a great way to get our housing market back up and running. With a wide selection of homes in the Central Phoenix area, there is something for everyone.

And don’t forget, the Realtor, Lender, HUD Consultant and Contractor will hold your hand throughout the WHOLE process.

If you would like more information on the 203(k) loan, or just on homes in CenPho, give me a call today at 602-456-9388.

If I have to hear another person predict a massive “shadow inventory” I’m going to turn green, and you wouldn’t like me when I turn green.

Well, not really green, more like red with some veins popping out on my forehead and my head spinning around.

So what am I talking about? Well, I’m a news junkie and when I hear every pundit on TV prattle on about  a shadow inventory, like its the forthcoming of the “four horsemen of the house-pocolypse,”  Where is the data to back it up? If they were looking at the same data as I am, then they wouldn’t be saying this nonsense.

I mean, come on, just do some quick research and see for yourself. The Cromford Index is the best guide out there and comes directly from the MLS as well as the county court and recorder’s documents. I would say those are just a teensy bit credible, I mean after all, they take the information directly from sales, right?

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

So what exactly is a shadow inventory? At its core, shadow inventory refers to properties, which are on their way to foreclosure or are already foreclosed that have not yet been sold or put on the market (for whatever reason, we don’t know).

Well, here is why there will be no shadow inventory in the Phoenix area:

1)      A house will not be part of any inventory of foreclosed homes until it has been given a foreclosure notice (see “Pending Foreclosures” on the graphs below). Even if it is a short sale, it probably has a foreclosure notice pending, so it is likely part of the big purple area below. A foreclosure notice is when the bank sends you a note to say, “Dearest customer. We noticed you stopped paying your mortgage. While we love you very much, we will throw your sorry butt out on the street by such and such date unless you pay up. Signed, Your Favorite Bank.”

(Click on graphs to enlarge)

That’s it. That is all there is. You could try to argue that more homes are going to go in to foreclosure because the economy is going to go in to a double-dip recession, but it is waaaay too early to predict that. Further, the foreclosures are going down because the market is clearing of those properties that were purchased at the peak of the market. There are just fewer of them now.

So, please. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your neighbors and strangers whom you don’t even know.

Let’s put this shadow inventory myth to bed for good…

If you are buying a house, this means the inventory is dropping and prices are going to go up. So, don’t delay. If you are looking to sell a house, times are getting better for you. Either way, call me at 602-456-9388.

Did you notice how some major stores are starting to close up shop in urban settings which in turn is affecting the surrounding areas?

I’m talking about major stores such as Target, Best Buy, even Safeway – these stores are considered “anchor stores” because they “anchor” and are supposed to bring stability to the local area. That Target at 7th Ave and Camelback has been closed for a couple years now.

So, what happens when one of those stores closes its doors?

I started thinking about this over the weekend after hearing an interview on National Public Radio about the subject and they used the book store Borders as an example since they are closing up stores after filing for bankruptcy.

You may be thinking the same thing I was at first that with these anchor stores leaving, the surrounding neighborhoods and community would be greatly affected in a negative way. Well, in many cases that may be, but for cities and developers who get on the ball, these closures can lead to positive developments.

If approached with the right mindset by city leaders, smaller stores and boutiques can come in and flourish, filling the void and revitalizing the area. This is what makes the Central Phoenix area so amazing! There may not necessarily be major anchor stores in the area, but it’s the artistic boutiques and small shops that fill in the holes like grains of sand between large rocks that make the area a solid and thriving community!

Most of you probably remember when, Richard Florida (of the famed book Rise of the Creative Class) came to town in about 2003. The interview on NPR with a Brookings Institute researcher really just backs up the same arguments.  Although major anchor stores leave and are replaced, as long as there is a culture that brings people together, you will have a community.

Further, a few failed stores in a whole line of smaller stores has less of a devastating impact that the loss of an anchor store.

This is what makes Central Phoenix such a dynamic micro-economy and why I love working and selling homes in the area. There is so much life and vitality that is often missing in other areas. There has been so much work done over the past decades to revive the area that just makes it the place to live!

I’ve love to hear what you think about this.