They say their information comes from MLS, so what’s wrong with using Zillow.com, Trulia.com, and Realtor.com?

The answer: LOTS!

True. Their data does come from MLS.

BUT…

(and that’s a big ‘ole ‘but’, indeed)

1) It’s delayed

2) Their search results is severely limited compared to MLS.

About that delay, delay, delay…

When you’re a realtor, you’re required to make changes in your listing within a 24-hour to 48-hour period after something has changed with your listing . Say the property goes from ‘active’ to ‘listing’, ‘listing’ to ‘closed’, or what was the final closing price?, and for all that kind of stuff, the realtor must update the MLS listing.

Here’s how it works for websites/companies like those listed above:

That information I just mentioned gets sent to all the companies who have subscribed to the MLS; companies like the three we’ve listed above. They pay all of the different local realtor associations around the country (for example, to the Phoenix Association of Realtors MLS) a subscription fee to get access to the MLS. BUT… it’s significantly delayed. You see, all of the MLS information that gets sent out from MLS goes through an “IDX Repeater”. That information goes out 24 to 48 hours after MLS has been updated.

You may not see that the house you think is ‘active’, is actually ‘pending’. This is the first way in which websites like Zillow, Realtor, and Trulia are inaccurate.

I’ve talked to agents who said that Zillo.com shows a house as ‘active’, when in fact, it hasn’t been active in six months. So when these companies  pay all this money to local MLS services to get this data for the roughly 6000 houses that close every month, the data is late. Way late. Later in effect than perhaps 24-48 hours sounds.

Realtors have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients.

Realtors can’t give up all of the information from the MLS to these other companies because  it could put our clients at risk in some cases. Some information pertains to gaining access to the home or information that could influence a price if known broadly. That’s why there has to be a delay. That’s the first reason the information coming from those kinds of websites is inaccurate.

Next week we’ll talk about the second reason the information is inaccurate: Search capabilities. I’ll give you specific examples of how your search results affect you as a buyer or seller. Like simply delaying information for a couple days, there’s much more to ‘search’ than what these sites are telling you.

If you want to buy or sell, and care about getting your information the second it’s a fact, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

In order to gauge a correct ‘supply and demand’ temperature for today’s Phoenix, it’s important to understand how far we’ve come.  (If you missed last week’s post, be sure to read part 1 of this series to catch up on the new definition of ‘supply and demand’).

Our market is a lot more complicated that it was in 2004/2005. Today, you do need a job to get a loan. It’s far more important than it was in 2005 when loans were as easy to get as raising your hand in class.

The nation’s unemployment rate had soared to over 10%. Maricopa County’s employment rate this past January? 7.1%. It then went down to 6.5%, then 6.6% and now we’re at 6.5%. Tucson is just a touch behind us at 6.7% unemployment.

Our biggest areas of growth are leisure and hospitality.

Because most of our losses were in leisure and hospitality, this is a good thing. A lot of the losses were in the construction and tourism industry when we went through our unemployment. Those industries are now in the top three and haven’t been since 2011.  ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

Education and health services were one of our top growths in 2011 and 2012. So now construction is starting to pick up, as is professional business services.

We’re one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation for bioscience (“Arizona bioscience sector adding jobs at four times the national rate“) and high technology. The average income in these sectors is $85,000 a year, an increase of 15% since 2011. As you see we have a lot of good things happening here.

We’ve had 30 companies either relocate or significantly expand their business out here – and 10 within just the last year; big ones like State Farm, Union Bank. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

These things we’re talking about are a big part of the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County. It’s the why we know that home prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. How is this happening? What winds shifted (or are shifting) that is drawing businesses to expand or migrate here? How do we account for those 30 companies migrating here in the first place? And because they are coming here, why do we still have such a shortage of properties?

That’s right. Next week!

To buy or sell with the our city’s macro view in mind, please call or email me at 602-456-9388 or ken@getyourphx.com

[‘now and then’ photo by Melody Ayres-Griffiths]

Get out of the summer heat. Join monOrchid gallery for their first ever annual Family Day!

Saturday
July 27
10 a.m. – 2 p.m.

Children of all ages invited!

This is an opportunity to celebrate the greatest gifts in our lives–our families– and the culture and community that sustain them. Fun and wonderful activities for all ages and cultural underpinnings that “elevate” to boot.  People in the know will bring their swimsuits too – there are persistent rumors of a kiddie pool in Dorina’s office 🙂  Show your love for your super extended Phoenix family and participate in making our city stronger. As the yogi says, “be here now.” ~ Wayne Rainey, owner of Monorchid

• Docent-lead tours of the exhibit.
• Live painting by local artist Jayme Blue from the Thermal PHX exhibit.
• Limited edition Thermal PHX Color sheet and drawing tables for children to create in the gallery.
• Hip Veggies will be creating awesome veggie art and debuting their new screen-printed canvas tote by artist Rafael Navarro.
• Yoga in the grass at “The Lot” (all ages, bring your mat): 10am to 11am.
• “Tales of a Tombstone, Arizona Tortoise” reading by authors Heather and Tad Smith.
• Performance by local musicians Andrew Waterhouse and Steven Totten (of Tres Lunas).
• Local treats from great Phoenix restaurants Carly’s Bistro and Pallets Food & Bar along, delicious cookies from Urban Cookies Bakeshop and Brilliant Sky Bakery.

The exhibition is meant to be a “thermal” for emerging local artists, helping them elevate their work by providing an exhibition opportunity in a major art space during our long, hot Phoenix summer. This wonderful exhibition offers a variety of art that will appeal to everyone. We hope you will join us for this very special event!

Last week, I promised to show you the real kicker. Here it is: Non distressed homes are taking on a greater role in the market. The distressed houses are going away.

What did the line look like for non-distressed homes? These are people who didn’t necessarily lose their home but their values went down. Watch what happens here, ‘cause this is the real kicker that reveals why it is we’re not in a bubble.

This chart is for Maricopa County, Median Home Sale Prices: NON-DISTRESSED SALES ONLY

The red arrow indicates the 18% pricing increase in the bubble. This was bubble-pricing at the beginning of the bubble. The large red circle that follows is what a real bubble looks like.

Now look at where we are now in this next chart. Look at the matching 16% increase at the far right of the chart, marked in blue.

We’re just matching the increase of Q4 2003-2004! Ask yourself:

What did it take to get us to where we were at the outset of the bubble? Recall those three big components from my part 2 analysis, last week. Are those at play here in the market again?

No.

We don’t have 100% financing.
We don’t have mortgage cash backs.
We don’t have schemes.

People have to have money. You have to 3.5% down, minimum for FHA. The conditions before are not the same now:

Mortgage lenders have to go to class and get licensed, just like agents now. Lenders didn’t have to do that before. You have to have some skin in the game nowadays, but you didn’t really have to have that back then. We’re not seeing those kinds of things. So for normal home prices, that dashed light blue line  in the chart above,  we’re right on the normal.

The normal home sellers and buyers are just kind of hanging out. When you look at what the prices are today

(~ $200,000 – per the number of the far right side of the above chart) and then look back into the past at the last time we were at that point, in the fourth quarter of 2004 (~ $193,950), you start to see what your equity is.

In the graph above, if you bought your home in the green box on the left, 2001 to late 2004, you had equity. If you bought it in the box on the right, late 2009 to now, you have equity. Now’s the time to sell.

Next week: Welcome to Recovery Mode (part 4)

To sell (or buy) please give me a call at (602) 456-9388 or email ken@getyourphx.com.

The 2013 McDowell Mountain Music Festival (MMMF) is coming up Friday, 22 March – Sunday, 24 March and this year, not 10 days away, it’s goin’ down in downtown Phoenix! If past events serve as an indicator, crowds are expected to be in the thousands! The festival grounds are at Margaret T. Hance park (at the east side of the park, off 3rd Street, just north of Moreland) at 200 E Moreland St, Phoenix.

This is a super-duper, like, really big deal my friends. If you’ve been in downtown for more than about 5 years, you should know automatically why. If you have not, read on. Well, even if you do know why, please read on. No use just stopping here.

Prior headliners include The Flaming Lips, The Black Crowes, Ratdog, Gov’t Mule and The John Butler Trio. By 2011, MMMF had raised over $500,000 for local charities. Fully 100% of proceeds this year will benefit Phoenix Children’s Hospital, Ear Candy Charity, and uMom New Day Centers. The event started at West World in 2004, moved to The Compound in 2011 and in 2013 digs its roots into downtown Phoenix.

The MMMF is a big deal. There will be thousands of people, camping, eating, and drinking. This is a huge influx of cash to downtown businesses. But I don’t think people get it.” Downtown advocate and Arizona Preservation Foundation president, Jim McPherson.

Well, we get it, Jim. And I’m here to tell all my friends about it, too. They’ll get it. And they have friends who’ll get it, too, you see, so they’ll share it and… so on, and so on! You’ll all want tickets, of course, and a peak at this year’s band line-up. (You will notice the link in the last sentence is for the new local venue called Last Exit Live. See below. Buying your tickets through there will help a new local venue establish itself.)

The 2013 McDowell Mountain Music Festival line-up:

Balkan Beat Box        JGB Band        Deer Tick             Les Claypool’s Duo de Twang             Dr. Dog              The Roots             Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros
The Shins            Heartless Bastards                 Umphrey’s McGee                  Iration              Yonder Mountain String Band  

And while you’re thinking about downtown Phoenix, here’s an excerpt from our next Get Your PHX event invite.

For our March 21 Get Your PHX, I’m very excited to announce that we are going to get an honest to goodness preview of a new downtown venue, Last Exit Live—the local stage which will feature the  McDowell Mountain Music Festival—before they open!

Last Exit Live is the Official Sponsor and organizer for the Local Stage at McDowell Mountain Music Festival this year. They’re coordinating with the Get Your PHX Team to bring you a Local Stage Pre-party and the soft opening of Last Exit Live.

So I’d love to hear what you think about the Festival: Is there any real value to downtown Phoenix to having the music festival here this year? Do you think it will make any lasting impact for our rising city?

The portion of the inventory that is considered distressed is still much smaller than it has been for years, and will continue to be that way.

If you look at the number of listings in the inventory, above, you will see that we had an increase in “normal” listings at the end of last year. That is because people who bought during the really low points or before about 2003 are putting their houses on the market. You see that January inventory is down a little bit.  I’m guessing this is because people think prices will go up, so they are holding off listing. But that’s tough to say –and it is a bit of a gamble for those folks who think they should wait.

Here’s why: while most folks think interest rates will stay where they are this year, I’m also hearing loan officers reporting that rates are starting to go up. You don’t want to try to sell a house while the interest rates are higher. It erases all of the price increase you were waiting for!

Still, you can see in this chart that the prices continue to go up, generally.

This is why you will see fewer investors in the market. First, their ability to get a super cheap house which they can flip up is going away in most areas. Second, it is more difficult to turn that house in to a rental and get cash flow when you bought it at a higher price.

I expect to see more “normal” buyers in the market, as those people who lost their credit scores recover and decide to pick up a new home.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

Part 3 ended with the big question, “What are the home builders doing?” I’m going to end my four-part market analysis with this answer and what they tells us as we’ve crossed into 2013 and heading into February already.

At the same conference that was put on for realtors by old Republic, where Mike Orr spoke, the home builders got up on stage. There were five of them and they had this total love-fest among themselves talking about how proud they were, “We’ve got this land out by the San Tans and were going to put like 8,000 homes on it!” And “yeah that’s right! And every one of them is going to have a pool!” They were really proud of themselves because they’re really starting to build 424 a month, 704 per month, 805 a month and they just saw a great future for themselves.

This is where they used to be. And this is where they are now…

Back when I was working for the State Energy Office. We were trying to convince home builders to put energy efficiency improvements in their homes and they were like, “Don’t bother us. We’re too busy.”

This is where they were in 2006. They built 60,000 homes in a year. Way too many for us to absorb.

I think what these guys are going to find, in the next two or three years is that they will never reach that old demand for “sprawl” housing.

Bear with me. I’m going to pontificate a little bit here. As the United States gears up its economy,

and China gears up its economy,

and Europe gears up its economy,

the price for auto fuel is going to go up. I think, it will reach over $5 per gallon, and that is going to affect home buying decisions.

One of the things I learned back at the energy office when I was there is that the price per barrel to get oil out of the ground has only gone up year after year. You may be fracking for natural gas and all that, but you don’t drive a natural gas car, typically, from Ahwatukee to downtown Phoenix, or from Avondale or the San Tans to your job.

So these guys are going to continue building out in the ‘burbs, but they’re going to find, as I have found, that people are less and less enthralled with the idea of living so far out.

So what will that do to home buying decisions?

I think you’re going to see those zip codes that we talked about before continue with an even greater price pressure upward. I think you’re going to see more desire for infill. Unfortunately,  the big developers sitting on the stands, congratulating themselves only want to do 1000+ homes. They’re not interested in doing a little infill project with six homes (which is about the best you can do in central Phoenix). They’re going to have a really hard time putting in new condos until we can continue selling off the ones we built at like $500 per square foot back in the peak of all this.

That’s going to make central Phoenix even more interesting to people.

This is the outlook that Mike Orr presented:

…Because more folks are finding reasons to sell to folks who bought before 2003 and they feel safe to put it back on the market. They’re going to add to the inventory…

…‘Cap Rates’ are their ability to make money off of these investments. So the investors will slow down as those Cap Rates fall. You have to ask yourself, is that going to put me in a situation where we are going to have less and less of a possibility for renters to find a place? We’ll talk about that, shortly…

…and they’ll do it…

Now this is my speculation, which I’m going to separate to make it even clearer that I don’t represent what Mike Orr has to say here.

I think that as you watch those historic neighborhoods that are a walking distance to the light rail (typically considered as between the 7’s; Seventh Avenue and Seventh Street), you’re going to see those prices continue to go up. That’s because builders are in the ‘burbs, not in central Phoenix and the inventory downtown is limited. Like Tempe, it’s landlocked. I think we’re going to see more of that.

Investors: the Cap Rates are going down, so if you’re thinking of investing, I think the window is closing for your potential to get an investment.

Home buyers: the prices will continue to go up, though we don’t know where the interest rates are going to be.

Home sellers: when you look at the charts above, and you think, “Great! The prices are going to continue to go up!” But we think that interest rates are going to stay low for another year, but if you are a home seller and home buyers interest rates go up, their ability to buy your house goes down. You have to keep an eye on that. In other words, this might be a good time for you to sell if you’ve been waiting.

Mike Orr also said that we can expect a rush this month (January 2013). I want to say something about that. Typically, if agents don’t get their sales completed by August, September, or October, they’re going to have a really bad Christmas/Hanukkah. The reason is because it’s slow during the holidays. The last two years, I have hardly had a day off during the holidays because it’s just been so busy. I think Mike could tell you that we don’t expect to have a whole lot of free time, because it is going to stay busy during Christmas.

Having said that, what always happens is that people finally shake off the left over Christmas tinsel at the end of January and say, “Oh, yeah, weren’t we talking about buying a house back in October? Must’ve forgotten about it because of how Halloween and all those other goings on.” And then you get that big rush of buyers. I think that this drastic upward momentum they receive is going to continue until the end of January 2013.

Moving forward

I would love to see my friends and my clients and the folks who are supporting downtown and central Phoenix getting some good information. I have access to all of this data from Mike Orr’s Cromford Report and it can reveal so much.

Please tell me, how helpful you folks think this market analysis series has been to you? What areas would you like me to zero in on?  Are there listing conditions you’d like me to do some research on?

If you have questions about buying or selling your home, please call me at 602-456-9388. I can help.

Last week, I shared details of the actual percentage of the increasing value of homes in the downtown Phoenix historic districts between January 2011 and October 2012. This week, I’ll open it up to CenPho, still focusing on the historic neighborhoods. You’ll find this very interesting and informative…

The bold numbers are the percecentage of change in those areas that follow:

No Change

I believe that we have not seen much change in these historic neighborhoods because they are so small and unique. We just have not seen much turnover in homes here.

Ashland Place Historic District
Hoover, Vernon and Ashland Avenues between Central Avenue and Third Street

Alvarado Historic District
Central Avenue, Oak Street, 3rd Street and Palm Lane in Phoenix
Note: I have a great listing at 140 E Coronado, directly behind the Phoenix art museum. This is a great, stable neighborhood.

East Alvarado Historic District
Central Ave., 3rd St., Oak St. and Roanoke Ave.,

East Evergreen Historic District
McDowell and Fillmore Sts., Central and 7th St.,

Up to 15% increase
This is generally the same as those areas noted above. This is a relatively small area and there is not a lot of turn-over.

La Hacienda Historic District
Thomas Rd. and Earll Dr. between 3rd St. and 7th St.

15% – 24.9% increase
The change in these areas is a result of some really nice renovations of historic homes. You are not seeing the huge increase in prices, as with those areas further down in this post because these areas remained surprisingly stable throughout the recession –at least by comparison. These areas prove my premise: that historic neighborhoods survive shocks better than other neighborhoods.

Campus Vista Historic District
Osborn to Thomas, 7th Avenue to 15th Avenue.

Cheery Lynn Historic District
Flower St, Earll Drive, Randolph Road, and 16th Street.

Country Club Manor
7th St. Osborn Rd and Thomas Rd

Del Norte Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Encanto Blvd, 17th Avenue to 15th Avenue

Encanto-Palmcroft Historic District
Encanto Bvd, McDowell Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Encanto Vista Historic District
Encanto Bvd, Thomas Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Fairview Place Historic District
15th Ave., McDowell Rd., 18th Ave., and Encanto Blvd

F.Q. Story Historic District
McDowell Rd., 7th Ave., Roosevelt St. and 17th Ave.,

Idylwilde Park Historic District
11th St and 12th St. Weldon Ave. and Fairmount Ave.

Margarita Place Historic District
15th Ave and 16th Ave along Edgemont Ave.

Medlock Place Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central and 7th Aves.

Melrose-Woodlea Historic Neighborhood
15th ave to 7th ave and Indian School to the canal

Oakland Historic District
Van Buren and Jefferson Sts. 7th and 15th Aves.

Pierson Place Historic District
Camelback and the Grand Canal Central and 7th Aves.

Woodland Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. and Van Buren and Fillmore St

Yaple Park Historic District
The Canal and Indian School Rd., 7th and 15th Aves.

25% – 34.9%
Willo saw some terrible price drops, but really started coming back in 2011. I believe a lot of this prices increases in Willo became apparent earlier than those shown far below.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Roosevelt Historic District
McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave.

Willo Historic District
Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rds.

35% or more increase
These areas really saw a huge dump in prices during the recession. The Coronado neighborhood, for example, was priced incredibly high on a per foot basis before the drop and they saw a huge downturn. Garfield neighborhood is increasing for other reasons –can you say “ASU expansion?” Garfield is going to be an important downtown neighborhood in the coming years and everybody is jumping in on it. I just hope that those who are jumping in are actually renovating the homes and not just acting as absentee landlords.

Brentwood Historic District
McDowell to the I-10, 16th Street to the 51

Coronado Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Coronado Road, 8th Street to 14th Street

Country Club Park Historic District
Thomas Road to Virginia Avenue, 8th Street to Dayton Street.

Earll Place Historic District
Earll Drive and the north side of Pinchot Ave between 16th and 18th st.

Garfield Historic District
7th St. 16th St. VanBuren St. and I-10

North Encanto Historic District
Osborn and Thomas Rds. 15th and 19th Aves.

Windsor Square Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central Ave. and 7th St.

“Phoenix’s Innovation and Efficiency efforts are leading the way nationally,” said Mayor Greg Stanton. “As a leader of the city, I get my best ideas from listening to people. We want to put as many of the city’s best ideas forward as possible.”

This deserves a huge round of applause!

The Innovation and Efficiency Task Force went to work January 2010, with private sector members and city executives serving together. Ideas flow through the Task Force to a subcommittee and then to the full City Council. In this excellent 10-minute video the City Celebrates $59 million in Innovation and Efficiency Savings (with numerous specific examples) and announces a $100 million Goal.

“The leadership from Mayor Stanton and Councilman Gates, the full City Council, our Task Force members and hard work from city staff have created a culture of innovation,”said City Manager and Task Force creator, David Cavazos. “Innovative ideas and sound financial management are at the heart of what we do here at the city of Phoenix, and we will continue to find new ideas and solutions.”

Marty Schultz, Task Force Member, and Senior Policy Dir. Brownstein/Hyatt/Farber/Schrek had this to say about the people in the private sector who are involved:

“They are actually very smart people who have finance backgrounds, service backgrounds, and management backgrounds, and have been able to work closely with the city staff.”

This brings to mind a string of programs Mayor Stanton and the city have initiated: In June, I told you about the unveiling of “Go Green Like Your Grocer”, a community energy efficiency showcased at AJ’s Fine Foods; in August, the innovate community-engaging website ‘My Plan Phx’ opened an opportunity for residents to help shape the future of the city through participation in updating the city’s General Plan (Conserve Create ConnectPHX), and planning for the communities along the light rail line (ReinventPHX). This short 1:30 video gives a good idea of what My Plan PHX is all about.

As a former State Legislator and the former state Energy Office Director, I have a strong understanding of energy efficiency in homes. I participated in Energize Phoenix on my property in Garfield, as have many others. That’s a significant bonus when people work with me as their agent. Of the two homes I’ve renovated in Central Phoenix, I did the Energize Phoenix program on my 1925 Arts and Crafts Bungalow. (The other home is a 1948 “war baby” tract home). I understand the attractions and challenges of old homes, as well as how to identify quality new homes. So, please let me know if I can apply my experience to help you buy or sell an energy efficient home in Phoenix.

 [innovation image: seth1492][usa image: Kyle McDonald]

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A TWO-NIGHT EVENT. DEC. 5TH AND 12.

Friends, it is official. Phoestivus is on and bigger than ever. Not only will we have over 50 vendors. Not only will we have at least 6 food trucks. Not only will we have feats of strength, an airing of grievances and the worlds largest Phoestivus pole (as far as you know).

Not only that, friends. But this: