In my October Market Briefing, The Cromford Report’s resident expert, Tina Tamboer, talked about about the Phoenix housing recovery not being expected until 2015 “Memory Lane predictions”.

These are a combination of predictions that never happened or that were completely wrong. An example is the Phoenix housing recovery prediction you’ll see from this how much things change as we move forward in time. The January 31, 2011 prediction. According to ABC 15 coverage of the Phoenix housing conference, the 2009 recovery was predicted in 2012; in 2010, they predicted recovery in 2014; and then in 2011, they change it again to 2015.

Listen to all of these predictions that never came true.

Zillo.com said that housing prices were going to appreciate 6.5%, but it turned out to be well over 26%. On August 6, 2012 Case Shiller predicted that Phoenix area home prices would decline year over year in Phoenix but they didn’t change that to a decrease of 9.5% by the first quarter of 2013, followed by a no change, flap Priceline between the first quarter of 2013 in the first quarter of 2014. Not only did neither of those come true, in fact, Phoenix ended up being the number one city in Case Shiller’s own index in 2013. So not only did the first prediction not come true, but the second prediction of no change between 2013 and 2014, we’ve actually seen prices continue to increase with no stabilization of pricing occurring so far this year.

On May 8, 2012 Phoenix business Journal predicted that Phoenix home prices would fall 11% that year. None of these came true. The only one that came true was on May 3, 2012, when CNN money predicted that buying a home won’t get much cheaper. This is the only thing that was anywhere near correct. Super general and not helpful in the slightest.

Let’s look at some news quotes from years past regarding shadow inventory.

It was widely reported in 2011 that shadow inventory would take close to four years to clear. Just over a year later, MSN real estate, said, “Remember the Looming Shadow Inventory? Never mind.”

This next one is really hilarious: Forbes reported in April of this year that not only are we in a bubble, but also, we have shadow inventory. Never mind that these are two mutually exclusive things. You cannot have a bubble and shadow inventory at the same time. One drives prices down. The other is artificial appreciation. These are two completely different extremes.

Doubletalk, Bubble Talk.

All of these analysts are basically fighting amongst themselves:

CNBC – 30 April 2013, “Boost in Home Prices Doesn’t Equal Bubble”

CNBC – 1 May 2013, “Why the Fast Rise in Home Prices Doesn’t Equal a Bubble.”

Yahoo News – 29 May 2013, “Real Estate Euphoria: Is America in a New Housing Bubble?”

The Economist – 7 June 2013, “No US Housing Bubble.”

NuWire Investor – 12 June 2013, “Reports Show No Phoenix Housing Bubble.”

CNBC – 22 June 2013, “Housing Market: from Recovery to Bubble. Already?”

CNBC – 10 September 2013, “CNBC: We’re in Another Housing Bubble.”

Housingwire – 23 September 2013, “Experts: We Are Not in a Housing Bubble.”

The most credible source would be The Economist. NuWire is pretty good. CNBC is just trying to get eyes on their articles. It’s interesting to see how CNBC has changed their headlines between April and September. “We’re a bubble.” “We’re not in a bubble.” “Oh my God, where in a bubble.” “False alarm. No bubble.”

If we look at headlines from 2012 and 2013, regarding jobs and employment, you’ll find the same confusion confliction.

It just shows that we have a lot of confusing, conflicting headlines in the news media.

As a consumer who is not an expert in all of the different indicators, you don’t really know what to think regarding prices and appreciation. All of that can create insecurity in a buyer. Buyers don’t like uncertainty, so headlines like that can create a lot of skepticism. In truth, skepticism is a healthy thing. It keeps our prices from going too crazy.

The whole purpose of showing you these predictions is for you to see that people who do that much predicting this far in advance really don’t know what they’re talking about. The Crawford Report, however, gives what Tina Tamboer calls “headlights”:

If you feel like you’re driving at night in the real estate market, the Crawford Report just gives you some headlights to know if there’s a curve in the road up ahead. We don’t know what the weather is like in your destination. You can do some pretty good predictions on short-term level, but once you get past 3 to 6 months from now, you become a lot less accurate.”

Next week:
Affordability & Interest Rates Headlines recap and what The Cromford Report headlights show in the realistic next 3 to 6 months.

If you want to buy or sell, and you want my headlight view for the next 3 – 6 months in your desired location, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

As I mentioned in my last post in this series about the illusions of real estate sites like zillow.com,  trulia.com, and realtor.com, websites like these do not have as many search description fields compared to the extensive search capabilities of our MLS.

               First, let’s talk about how buyers are affected

In MLS, a property could be ‘active’, ‘UBC’ (excepting backup offers), ‘pending’, ‘closed’, ‘expired’, ‘canceled’. The three websites mentioned previously, only show ‘active’, ‘pending’, or ‘closed’. To show how significant it is to be missing something like the indication of UBC, this typically indicates that the property is accepting back up offers on a short sale, which means you might inquire about  seeing the home.

Another great example is with the Multi-Listing Service, which has a time of more descriptions about what is in the property: for example, is a block construction or wood construction, does the home have any energy efficiency features, and if so, which ones?

               How sellers are affected

If you’re a buyer and you look Zillow.com to see what an estimate is of the value of your home, you won’t find an actual “estimate”, but in fact a word like “Zestimate”. This could be that they can’t call what they do an actual “estimate” legally, just like “Froot Loops” can’t say they have fruit in them.  Functionally, they just don’t have access to the MLS data the way we do and so their estimates of home prices must be constructed from other, less accurate sources. 

For instance, if you go to the County Assessor and see what they estimate as the assessed value of your home, that is not the same as the estimated price or market value. Their assessed valuation, in fact, is designed to be way off of what the market actually is. They are prevented by law from increasing their estimate of your home value too fast so that your taxes (which are based on that value) are not raised too quickly. So a lot of where these websites are getting their estimates of your home is informed largely by, if not based on, the local County Assessor’s office.

In fact, there is a page on the Zillow.com website that describes their estimates and actually says,

“[Our estimate] is not an appraisal”

“Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home.”

I’d give you the link, but there’s a lot of hobly-gobly-now-you-see-the-truth-now-you-don’t nonsense in the writing that’s hypnotic and designed to get you to ignore the man behind the curtain who’s actually short, timid, and uncertain of much of anything. Need more proof? Check out their ‘Data Coverage and Zestimate Accuracy Table’, where you’ll learn that 86.4% of their Zestimates in the Phoenix area are as much as 20% off the actual sales price.

Let me say that again: 86.4% of their Zestimates in the Phoenix area are as much as 20% off the actual sales price.

This is one of the reasons you want to use a professional agent with access to the MLS. Well, like ME for instance!

If you want to buy or sell, and care about how you are affected as a seller or buyer, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

 

 

 

They say their information comes from MLS, so what’s wrong with using Zillow.com, Trulia.com, and Realtor.com?

The answer: LOTS!

True. Their data does come from MLS.

BUT…

(and that’s a big ‘ole ‘but’, indeed)

1) It’s delayed

2) Their search results is severely limited compared to MLS.

About that delay, delay, delay…

When you’re a realtor, you’re required to make changes in your listing within a 24-hour to 48-hour period after something has changed with your listing . Say the property goes from ‘active’ to ‘listing’, ‘listing’ to ‘closed’, or what was the final closing price?, and for all that kind of stuff, the realtor must update the MLS listing.

Here’s how it works for websites/companies like those listed above:

That information I just mentioned gets sent to all the companies who have subscribed to the MLS; companies like the three we’ve listed above. They pay all of the different local realtor associations around the country (for example, to the Phoenix Association of Realtors MLS) a subscription fee to get access to the MLS. BUT… it’s significantly delayed. You see, all of the MLS information that gets sent out from MLS goes through an “IDX Repeater”. That information goes out 24 to 48 hours after MLS has been updated.

You may not see that the house you think is ‘active’, is actually ‘pending’. This is the first way in which websites like Zillow, Realtor, and Trulia are inaccurate.

I’ve talked to agents who said that Zillo.com shows a house as ‘active’, when in fact, it hasn’t been active in six months. So when these companies  pay all this money to local MLS services to get this data for the roughly 6000 houses that close every month, the data is late. Way late. Later in effect than perhaps 24-48 hours sounds.

Realtors have a fiduciary responsibility to our clients.

Realtors can’t give up all of the information from the MLS to these other companies because  it could put our clients at risk in some cases. Some information pertains to gaining access to the home or information that could influence a price if known broadly. That’s why there has to be a delay. That’s the first reason the information coming from those kinds of websites is inaccurate.

Next week we’ll talk about the second reason the information is inaccurate: Search capabilities. I’ll give you specific examples of how your search results affect you as a buyer or seller. Like simply delaying information for a couple days, there’s much more to ‘search’ than what these sites are telling you.

If you want to buy or sell, and care about getting your information the second it’s a fact, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

“Whipeeeeeeee!”

              or

“Whoaaaaaaaa!”

Every square in this rainbow slide (not the one on the left, though that does look like fun. I mean every square in the image below) represents a month—January, February, March—all going up.

This covers central phoenix and downtown zip codes, historic and older neighborhoods. One vertical stack of those boxes adds up to one year. See how we’ve dropped quite precipitously:  from 7,500 (in 2010) to 5,800 (March, 2013). In 2008 to 2010 a lot of those were short sales and foreclosures. You can shrink inventory, but the demand is still there and what happens? The price goes up.

Same three-month moving average

In this next slide is the average of all three months going back in time. In this way you keep from getting a bunch of blips that aren’t really accurate. See in those downtown zip codes how we’ve gone from $117 in September 2012 to now at $144 per square foot. Let’s look at year to year. March 2012: $105 to $144. That’s a big jump. Now the three month moving average is going to be more extreme than 12-months, because we’re averaging prices today and 12 months ago. The line is smoother and more conservative.

See from March 2012 it went from $96 to $149 per square foot. This $123 represents the average price for this day and the three months before. So you’re seeing that upward trend. Now, in downtown Scottsdale, we’re starting at higher prices.

Follow me on this:

In March 2004—in the recent comparisons slide, below—the monthly average price per square foot was $115. By the end of 2004 it was $131, a 16% increase. In March 2013, it was at $114, with very similar conditions. We started in January 2013 at $108.

Do we think the price can get to a similar 16% increase point by the end of 2013? This increase from $108 to $114/$116 is a very similar line. So for 2013, yes, I think we’re anywhere in a 16% – 20% price increase, just like 2004. I think we could very easily see average prices by the end of this year, somewhere between $125 and $130.

Now let’s take that same 15% – 20% increase—seen here in this next slide of this more-conservative 12-month moving average price per square foot—and apply it county wide to only Phoenix and Scottsdale, keeping in mind the trend-line I talked about in this post.

Phoenix was on a 12-month moving average in March of this year, sitting at $129 price per square foot (for those same zip codes). If you apply that same 15% – 20% increase, you’re looking at $140 – $146 by the end of this year. Apply that same 15% – 20% increase to the Scottsdale area, starting at $156 for the 12-month moving average, you’re looking at $170 to $175 by year’s end.

I think it’s very reasonable to say that we’re going to be there by the end of 2013.

Let’s compare visually

This here, in this next slide/image is for the whole county and is just by way of an illustration. 2004 (the blue line) and 2012 (the purple line) looked a lot the same in terms of path upward. At the end of March, we were about to surpass the same place we were in 2004.

Attention. Attention. Here ye the Town Criers.

Every few weeks, it seems, we hear a lot in the news about how they’re breaking new ground and there is all these new developments. Each one of those dots in the chart represents a month. In the month of Jan, Feb 2007 we built 4,000 houses. Over the course of over 2006, we built something like 60,000 homes. It was insane. They were crappy, throw-‘em-up houses. And now the news loves to proclaim:

Look! We’re building again!

But the number is tiny. It’s about 250 – 300 homes.

This is important to Central Phoenix for a couple reasons: These new builds are out in the fringes of Phoenix, so you’re not adding to central Phoenix inventory. Also, they’d have to build a lot more of these homes on the fringes for it to have any impact on prices in central Phoenix.

I don’t want to list ‘cause it’s going to be worth so much more a year from now.

But what happens if everyone holds off from selling? People will stop looking and prices go up.

Urban Density: Take away

• Investors –If you want to invest in something, get your mind around the fact that you’re more likely to hold it than flip it and get a better price for it; because the margin’s not there or you’re not going to get cash flow because you paid so much for that thing to begin with and nobody’s going to pay that much rent.

• Sellers –Watch for possible price plateau during the summer. With these price increases, don’t just think I’m gonna hold a year to sell and get this higher price, that’s not necessarily so. Also, with these price increases, people who are thinking this, don’t be so certain, because either people stop buying, or people are prices out of the market, or a lot more people say, “Look the prices are there, go, go, go!” I don’t think you can be that confident for a year or even 9 months from now.

• Urban Cores – are in need of urban infill. Detached residential and condos are coming in the burbs, but we need more rooftops centrally.

• Prices – They’re not necessarily a result of heavy demand, because there’s no inventory coming up the way we thought it would.

Be ye Investor, Seller, Buyer, or Town Crier, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com. I’ll get it done.

[slide image: Trish_Gee88]

We’ve known it intuitively and anecdotally for a long time, but here is some great news that proves it: home values next to light rail are stronger.

In a recent blog by Michael Melaniphy (President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association (APTA)) he said:  “Average sales prices for residences in close proximity to high-frequency public transit were more stable during the recession”. This is not a guestimate, but backed up by strong data drawn from a nationwide report commissioned by APTA and the American Association of Realtors®.

The five cities upon which the study was based are a representative sample of the types of high-frequency public transit systems throughout the U.S. The five cities were Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Francisco, Chicago, Phoenix and Boston.

“During the last recession, residential property values performed 42 percent better on average if they were located near public transportation with high-frequency service.” ~ APTA and the American Association of Realtors®

Enter Phoenix’s $2.9 million Sustainable Communities grant (2011, from the Department of Housing and Urban Development) for Reinvent PHX —  a way to produce sustainability action plans for the five districts along the existing light rail line and establish a new transit-oriented model for urban development along the city’s light rail corridors.

As the nation continues to assign us with the unofficial title “World’s Least Sustainable City”, we’re still a “Bird on Fire” worth writing books about and paying attention to.  You may recall that in November last year, I wrote about Phoenix leading the Nation in Innovation and Efficiency.

A year ago, January, Native American Connections built a community for our growing, city-dwelling Native American populations in the mixed-use, mixed-income apartments of  the Divine Legacy, just across from the Campbell & Central light rail station.

In my post last September, I mentioned a great story on KJZZ’s Changing America series where the reporter talked about how retirees are moving into downtown areas and urban cores along the Valley Metro light-rail line.

And as The Atlantic noted in a post a couple days ago, it looks like Phoenix’s walkability gamble just might pay off.  Light rail homes gives people quicker access to alternate ways to get around town, access to jobs, and lower transportation costs in walkable areas.

All of this is particularly important if you are thinking to list your home. If you bought before about 2004 or between about 2009-2011, you are probably in a really good position to sell.

In the immortal words of one Hannibal Smith, “I love it when a plan comes together.”

If you want to buy or sell the right property near public transit, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

[metro image: King Chung Huang]

Y’all know that I dig The Cromford Report.

And not just because I respect Michael Orr, who founded The Cromford Report and who has been chief analyst and editor since its inception in 2006. The fact that Mike holds a master’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Oxford, has been investing in real estate since 1976, and is director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, should say something about his credentials.

I’ve mentioned to you in the past that the data in The Cromford Report™ comes from public records and under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) is another source of confidence. Reputable organizations like The New York Times and Get Your PHX regularly refer to The Cromford Report for daily real estate market insight in the Greater Phoenix residential market should come as no surprise. What the magic soup, secret spices, and mathematical wizardry is that makes the data into the graphs, charts, index, etc. at The Cromford Report™ is a mystery, but the results are certifiable.

I first wrote about The Cromford Report in March 2011. I’ve been citing it more frequently, lately, and I’ll be doing more so in the months to come.  If you are a real estate investor in Phoenix, you need to subscribe to The Cromford Report.

The Market Index

If there’s one thing you really need to pay attention to on The Cromford Report, it’s The Market Index. If the market gauge is over 100, it’s a seller’s market. Below 100 is a buyer’s market.

Look at the Market Index for today.

This Index is really handy. Based on this number, well over 100, are we in a seller’s or a buyer’s market?

If you follow The Cromford Index (or you’ve been reading my posts), you’ll know that number has been on the rise for the last year.

Historically, you can see what things looked like before and compare it with today.

Back in September, 2010…

Let’s back up to April 2005 and take a look at the Market Index was in context of the years leading up to 2010.

This is Central Phoenix, all areas and types of residential homes, between 2002 and 2009…

At the peak, in April 2005, the Market Index was way, way over 100, making it whose market? (I know. You don’t even have to look; some of you may not want to). Right now, today, the index is 160-ish. We’ve been seeing this coming for a long time.

Here’s the skinny.

This is a VERY HOT seller’s market.

It will not always be that way. If you’re thinking of selling, you have to get in there now. It’s been going up since late last year, but do not assume prices will go up forever. We know they don’t. We know they won’t. It’s so easy to lull yourself into a false sense, especially when you don’t track invaluable resources like The Cromford Report.

“If I just wait 6 months, the prices will be really high” they say.

Yeah, and maybe, if everyone waits six month, there will be no inventory, and the bubble will burst. Or, maybe, interest rates will go up, and then the bubble bursts.

Move on it now. Contact me when you’re ready. I’ve got your back.

I can be reached on my cell at 602-456-9388 or via email Ken@GetYourPHX.com

The portion of the inventory that is considered distressed is still much smaller than it has been for years, and will continue to be that way.

If you look at the number of listings in the inventory, above, you will see that we had an increase in “normal” listings at the end of last year. That is because people who bought during the really low points or before about 2003 are putting their houses on the market. You see that January inventory is down a little bit.  I’m guessing this is because people think prices will go up, so they are holding off listing. But that’s tough to say –and it is a bit of a gamble for those folks who think they should wait.

Here’s why: while most folks think interest rates will stay where they are this year, I’m also hearing loan officers reporting that rates are starting to go up. You don’t want to try to sell a house while the interest rates are higher. It erases all of the price increase you were waiting for!

Still, you can see in this chart that the prices continue to go up, generally.

This is why you will see fewer investors in the market. First, their ability to get a super cheap house which they can flip up is going away in most areas. Second, it is more difficult to turn that house in to a rental and get cash flow when you bought it at a higher price.

I expect to see more “normal” buyers in the market, as those people who lost their credit scores recover and decide to pick up a new home.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

Part 3 ended with the big question, “What are the home builders doing?” I’m going to end my four-part market analysis with this answer and what they tells us as we’ve crossed into 2013 and heading into February already.

At the same conference that was put on for realtors by old Republic, where Mike Orr spoke, the home builders got up on stage. There were five of them and they had this total love-fest among themselves talking about how proud they were, “We’ve got this land out by the San Tans and were going to put like 8,000 homes on it!” And “yeah that’s right! And every one of them is going to have a pool!” They were really proud of themselves because they’re really starting to build 424 a month, 704 per month, 805 a month and they just saw a great future for themselves.

This is where they used to be. And this is where they are now…

Back when I was working for the State Energy Office. We were trying to convince home builders to put energy efficiency improvements in their homes and they were like, “Don’t bother us. We’re too busy.”

This is where they were in 2006. They built 60,000 homes in a year. Way too many for us to absorb.

I think what these guys are going to find, in the next two or three years is that they will never reach that old demand for “sprawl” housing.

Bear with me. I’m going to pontificate a little bit here. As the United States gears up its economy,

and China gears up its economy,

and Europe gears up its economy,

the price for auto fuel is going to go up. I think, it will reach over $5 per gallon, and that is going to affect home buying decisions.

One of the things I learned back at the energy office when I was there is that the price per barrel to get oil out of the ground has only gone up year after year. You may be fracking for natural gas and all that, but you don’t drive a natural gas car, typically, from Ahwatukee to downtown Phoenix, or from Avondale or the San Tans to your job.

So these guys are going to continue building out in the ‘burbs, but they’re going to find, as I have found, that people are less and less enthralled with the idea of living so far out.

So what will that do to home buying decisions?

I think you’re going to see those zip codes that we talked about before continue with an even greater price pressure upward. I think you’re going to see more desire for infill. Unfortunately,  the big developers sitting on the stands, congratulating themselves only want to do 1000+ homes. They’re not interested in doing a little infill project with six homes (which is about the best you can do in central Phoenix). They’re going to have a really hard time putting in new condos until we can continue selling off the ones we built at like $500 per square foot back in the peak of all this.

That’s going to make central Phoenix even more interesting to people.

This is the outlook that Mike Orr presented:

…Because more folks are finding reasons to sell to folks who bought before 2003 and they feel safe to put it back on the market. They’re going to add to the inventory…

…‘Cap Rates’ are their ability to make money off of these investments. So the investors will slow down as those Cap Rates fall. You have to ask yourself, is that going to put me in a situation where we are going to have less and less of a possibility for renters to find a place? We’ll talk about that, shortly…

…and they’ll do it…

Now this is my speculation, which I’m going to separate to make it even clearer that I don’t represent what Mike Orr has to say here.

I think that as you watch those historic neighborhoods that are a walking distance to the light rail (typically considered as between the 7’s; Seventh Avenue and Seventh Street), you’re going to see those prices continue to go up. That’s because builders are in the ‘burbs, not in central Phoenix and the inventory downtown is limited. Like Tempe, it’s landlocked. I think we’re going to see more of that.

Investors: the Cap Rates are going down, so if you’re thinking of investing, I think the window is closing for your potential to get an investment.

Home buyers: the prices will continue to go up, though we don’t know where the interest rates are going to be.

Home sellers: when you look at the charts above, and you think, “Great! The prices are going to continue to go up!” But we think that interest rates are going to stay low for another year, but if you are a home seller and home buyers interest rates go up, their ability to buy your house goes down. You have to keep an eye on that. In other words, this might be a good time for you to sell if you’ve been waiting.

Mike Orr also said that we can expect a rush this month (January 2013). I want to say something about that. Typically, if agents don’t get their sales completed by August, September, or October, they’re going to have a really bad Christmas/Hanukkah. The reason is because it’s slow during the holidays. The last two years, I have hardly had a day off during the holidays because it’s just been so busy. I think Mike could tell you that we don’t expect to have a whole lot of free time, because it is going to stay busy during Christmas.

Having said that, what always happens is that people finally shake off the left over Christmas tinsel at the end of January and say, “Oh, yeah, weren’t we talking about buying a house back in October? Must’ve forgotten about it because of how Halloween and all those other goings on.” And then you get that big rush of buyers. I think that this drastic upward momentum they receive is going to continue until the end of January 2013.

Moving forward

I would love to see my friends and my clients and the folks who are supporting downtown and central Phoenix getting some good information. I have access to all of this data from Mike Orr’s Cromford Report and it can reveal so much.

Please tell me, how helpful you folks think this market analysis series has been to you? What areas would you like me to zero in on?  Are there listing conditions you’d like me to do some research on?

If you have questions about buying or selling your home, please call me at 602-456-9388. I can help.

Let’s talk about home sales trends, shall we? I hate to say I told you so (okay, maybe I don’t…), but According to Data Reporters Ryan Konig and Matt Dempsey at The Arizona Republic, the downtown Phoenix historic districts in 2012 saw a significant increase in median sales prices for single-family houses.

Which downtown Phoenix historic district areas  have seen the greatest increase between 2011 and 2012?

The Roosevelt District
Roughly surrounded by McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave. in Phoenix. The shape of this district is like a perfect box.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Villa Verde Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. Encanto Blvd. and Monte Vista

Willo Neighborhood
This historic distric is located direct above the Roosevel Historic District. It’s roughly surrounded by Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rd.

So check this out. Those four histroic neighborhoods have seen a 25% to 34.9% increase in the median housing prices since 2011! Meanwhile, the east side of central, literally across the street, has seen how much incrase in home prices since 2011? Try zero.

The orange area is the sweet spot of this increase in prices for three of the historic neighborhoods: Willo, Los Olivos, and Roosevelt. Villa Verde is at the NW corner 19th ave/Grand ave.  It’s the same area I’ve been telling people for some time now not to ignore–“because there’s some good stuff going on there, stuff that’s going to explode in 2012″. Of course, I’ve been saying since late 2009 that CenPho is gearing up for a serious rebound.

So, I can’t read the future or anything. Don’t come asking me about which boxer to bet on. But I have a really good nose for where things are going in CenPho.

If you’re a buyer who wants to know about those cool little hidden places that my expertise tells me are going to do well, come talk to me. If you’re a seller, now is the time to think seriously about selling.

In future posts coming down the Get Your PHX pipline in 2013, I’m going to be tracking certain areas in Central Phoenix for you; for example, historic light-rail adjacent areas, and let you in on what’s happening to median home values  in these areas. It’s going to be an exciting year, 2013. Keep your ear to Get Your PHX and I’ll do my best to keep you in the know.

Kenneth “Ken” Clark
REALTOR(r)
At Your Service!
HomeSmart
(602) 456-9388
Ken@GetYourPHX.com

In part 3, I shared my experiences with my physical visit to Desert Schools Federal Credit Union. I ended just when I was about to talk about their Health Savings Account. As both Desert Schools and Arizona Federal Credit Union offer this package, I thought I’d size up the two choices on this note, follow it with my review of Arizona Federal, then see if you would choose the same one I will.

Health Savings Account. These types of accounts came into effect under George Bush II, in what I see as an ineffective attempt to control health costs. The way it works is if you self-insure (a lot of small businesses, for example, get their own insurance), you can open a Health Savings Account. By doing this, you’re in insurance rates are lower, your deductibles are higher, but you’re allowed to open a savings account that earns money tax-free. When you spend money on your healthcare out of that account, you get to deduct it on your taxes. If you are self-insured under the Health Savings Plan, you have to have a Health Savings Account to go with it.

With the national banks, you can’t toggle from your online account over to your health savings account, without going through a third-party “firewall” of sorts, a completely different site where you must login from there. They keep the Health Savings Account very separate from your other accounts.

At both of these credit unions, your Health Savings Accounts are integrated. This makes it so much easier. Part of the reason for having health savings account, is that you want to be putting money aside every month into the account. Because the credit unions make that easier to do, I’m much more likely to set aside money for that purpose. Any financial advisor will tell you that you need to be socking away money every month that goes somewhere that you don’t touch specifically for the kind of health emergencies one doesn’t anticipate.

For Desert Schools Federal Credit Union’s local investment, they were good. They had a nice long list of groups they give money to that are Arizona-based. That’s very good. For example, they support United Way and BALST School District (one of the underprivileged school districts where we need to get kids into a better situation).

Arizona Central Credit Union

They have 50 valley locations. I went to the branch on Central Avenue and Palm Lane. They do have a drive-up ATM there, but no teller window. I didn’t get a chance to look at their online demo, because, like Desert Schools, they don’t have one– and because no one offered me a peek at their own personal account. Of course, I didn’t ask. I did ask if they had an online demo and they said, “No. For one, we just updated our system, but also, nobody ever really asks about that.”

Bill pay for them is not always free. I don’t remember the conditions under which that’s the case, but I think it’s related to account balances. For security, they use Alert Me Credit Monitoring Service.

I was less impressed with their customer service. My hold time on the phone, just waiting for someone to pick up at the branch, was 15 minutes. The next day, I physically went into the branch, not so much because I was ready to do that, but because I didn’t get anywhere on the phone. So I walked into the Arizona Central Credit Union (ACCU), kind of just waited around for a while, and then someone said, “If you just have a seat over there somewhere, someone will be over to help you.” It felt to me like they didn’t really care that I was there.

That’s two red flags. One on the phone. One in person. If it weren’t for the fact that I was also planning to write this post, I’d have bailed on Arizona Central Credit Union right there. If I were to treat my perspective clients like that, I’d never sell any homes. I expect the same level of service from people who want to hold on to my money.

Again, from the perspective of the small business (and the biggest selling point that credit unions should have over mega-banks), I’m making this shift for the personal touches of knowing consistently who I’m talking with at the bank. ACCU failed on this point.

Their personal accounts were pretty much the same as Desert Schools Federal Credit Union. I was not impressed by what had to be done in order to get free checking, though. Their minimum balances seemed really high to me. It just bugs the Dickens out of me that people want to hold on to my money (to earn interest on it) and they’re still charging me fees. Their fee structure for business accounts was a minimum of $1500. This was the same at Desert Schools. Nothing significant was different in the way they structure savings accounts as well. They also have the Health Savings Account, with no monthly fees, and it’s integrated into their website. Local Investment for them was also a healthy list. One of them was International Rescue Committee, which I like.

The last thing I want to review for Desert Schools and Arizona Federal Credit Union, before I make a decision between the the two, is Brokerage Accounts. That’s the first thing I’ll talk about in the next installment of my six-part series on the process of selecting a credit union. Until then!