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Live, Market Analysis

Market News: February 2013

The portion of the inventory that is considered distressed is still much smaller than it has been for years, and will continue to be that way.

If you look at the number of listings in the inventory, above, you will see that we had an increase in “normal” listings at the end of last year. That is because people who bought during the really low points or before about 2003 are putting their houses on the market. You see that January inventory is down a little bit.  I’m guessing this is because people think prices will go up, so they are holding off listing. But that’s tough to say –and it is a bit of a gamble for those folks who think they should wait.

Here’s why: while most folks think interest rates will stay where they are this year, I’m also hearing loan officers reporting that rates are starting to go up. You don’t want to try to sell a house while the interest rates are higher. It erases all of the price increase you were waiting for!

Still, you can see in this chart that the prices continue to go up, generally.

This is why you will see fewer investors in the market. First, their ability to get a super cheap house which they can flip up is going away in most areas. Second, it is more difficult to turn that house in to a rental and get cash flow when you bought it at a higher price.

I expect to see more “normal” buyers in the market, as those people who lost their credit scores recover and decide to pick up a new home.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

 

February 8, 2013by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis, Tips

Get Your PHX Market Briefing, part 4

Part 3 ended with the big question, “What are the home builders doing?” I’m going to end my four-part market analysis with this answer and what they tells us as we’ve crossed into 2013 and heading into February already.

At the same conference that was put on for realtors by old Republic, where Mike Orr spoke, the home builders got up on stage. There were five of them and they had this total love-fest among themselves talking about how proud they were, “We’ve got this land out by the San Tans and were going to put like 8,000 homes on it!” And “yeah that’s right! And every one of them is going to have a pool!” They were really proud of themselves because they’re really starting to build 424 a month, 704 per month, 805 a month and they just saw a great future for themselves.

This is where they used to be. And this is where they are now…

 

Back when I was working for the State Energy Office. We were trying to convince home builders to put energy efficiency improvements in their homes and they were like, “Don’t bother us. We’re too busy.”

This is where they were in 2006. They built 60,000 homes in a year. Way too many for us to absorb.

I think what these guys are going to find, in the next two or three years is that they will never reach that old demand for “sprawl” housing.

Bear with me. I’m going to pontificate a little bit here. As the United States gears up its economy,

and China gears up its economy,

and Europe gears up its economy,

the price for auto fuel is going to go up. I think, it will reach over $5 per gallon, and that is going to affect home buying decisions.

One of the things I learned back at the energy office when I was there is that the price per barrel to get oil out of the ground has only gone up year after year. You may be fracking for natural gas and all that, but you don’t drive a natural gas car, typically, from Ahwatukee to downtown Phoenix, or from Avondale or the San Tans to your job.

So these guys are going to continue building out in the ‘burbs, but they’re going to find, as I have found, that people are less and less enthralled with the idea of living so far out.

So what will that do to home buying decisions?

I think you’re going to see those zip codes that we talked about before continue with an even greater price pressure upward. I think you’re going to see more desire for infill. Unfortunately,  the big developers sitting on the stands, congratulating themselves only want to do 1000+ homes. They’re not interested in doing a little infill project with six homes (which is about the best you can do in central Phoenix). They’re going to have a really hard time putting in new condos until we can continue selling off the ones we built at like $500 per square foot back in the peak of all this.

That’s going to make central Phoenix even more interesting to people.

This is the outlook that Mike Orr presented:


…Because more folks are finding reasons to sell to folks who bought before 2003 and they feel safe to put it back on the market. They’re going to add to the inventory…

…‘Cap Rates’ are their ability to make money off of these investments. So the investors will slow down as those Cap Rates fall. You have to ask yourself, is that going to put me in a situation where we are going to have less and less of a possibility for renters to find a place? We’ll talk about that, shortly…


…and they’ll do it…


Now this is my speculation, which I’m going to separate to make it even clearer that I don’t represent what Mike Orr has to say here.

I think that as you watch those historic neighborhoods that are a walking distance to the light rail (typically considered as between the 7’s; Seventh Avenue and Seventh Street), you’re going to see those prices continue to go up. That’s because builders are in the ‘burbs, not in central Phoenix and the inventory downtown is limited. Like Tempe, it’s landlocked. I think we’re going to see more of that.

Investors: the Cap Rates are going down, so if you’re thinking of investing, I think the window is closing for your potential to get an investment.

Home buyers: the prices will continue to go up, though we don’t know where the interest rates are going to be.

Home sellers: when you look at the charts above, and you think, “Great! The prices are going to continue to go up!” But we think that interest rates are going to stay low for another year, but if you are a home seller and home buyers interest rates go up, their ability to buy your house goes down. You have to keep an eye on that. In other words, this might be a good time for you to sell if you’ve been waiting.

Mike Orr also said that we can expect a rush this month (January 2013). I want to say something about that. Typically, if agents don’t get their sales completed by August, September, or October, they’re going to have a really bad Christmas/Hanukkah. The reason is because it’s slow during the holidays. The last two years, I have hardly had a day off during the holidays because it’s just been so busy. I think Mike could tell you that we don’t expect to have a whole lot of free time, because it is going to stay busy during Christmas.

Having said that, what always happens is that people finally shake off the left over Christmas tinsel at the end of January and say, “Oh, yeah, weren’t we talking about buying a house back in October? Must’ve forgotten about it because of how Halloween and all those other goings on.” And then you get that big rush of buyers. I think that this drastic upward momentum they receive is going to continue until the end of January 2013.

Moving forward

I would love to see my friends and my clients and the folks who are supporting downtown and central Phoenix getting some good information. I have access to all of this data from Mike Orr’s Cromford Report and it can reveal so much.

Please tell me, how helpful you folks think this market analysis series has been to you? What areas would you like me to zero in on?  Are there listing conditions you’d like me to do some research on?

If you have questions about buying or selling your home, please call me at 602-456-9388. I can help.

 

February 6, 2013by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis, Tips

Home Values in CenPho PHX Climb

Let’s talk about home sales trends, shall we? I hate to say I told you so (okay, maybe I don’t…), but According to Data Reporters Ryan Konig and Matt Dempsey at The Arizona Republic, the downtown Phoenix historic districts in 2012 saw a significant increase in median sales prices for single-family houses.

Which downtown Phoenix historic district areas  have seen the greatest increase between 2011 and 2012?

The Roosevelt District
Roughly surrounded by McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave. in Phoenix. The shape of this district is like a perfect box.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Villa Verde Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. Encanto Blvd. and Monte Vista

Willo Neighborhood
This historic distric is located direct above the Roosevel Historic District. It’s roughly surrounded by Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rd.

So check this out. Those four histroic neighborhoods have seen a 25% to 34.9% increase in the median housing prices since 2011! Meanwhile, the east side of central, literally across the street, has seen how much incrase in home prices since 2011? Try zero.

The orange area is the sweet spot of this increase in prices for three of the historic neighborhoods: Willo, Los Olivos, and Roosevelt. Villa Verde is at the NW corner 19th ave/Grand ave.  It’s the same area I’ve been telling people for some time now not to ignore–“because there’s some good stuff going on there, stuff that’s going to explode in 2012″. Of course, I’ve been saying since late 2009 that CenPho is gearing up for a serious rebound.

So, I can’t read the future or anything. Don’t come asking me about which boxer to bet on. But I have a really good nose for where things are going in CenPho.

If you’re a buyer who wants to know about those cool little hidden places that my expertise tells me are going to do well, come talk to me. If you’re a seller, now is the time to think seriously about selling.

In future posts coming down the Get Your PHX pipline in 2013, I’m going to be tracking certain areas in Central Phoenix for you; for example, historic light-rail adjacent areas, and let you in on what’s happening to median home values  in these areas. It’s going to be an exciting year, 2013. Keep your ear to Get Your PHX and I’ll do my best to keep you in the know.

Kenneth “Ken” Clark
REALTOR(r)
At Your Service!
HomeSmart
(602) 456-9388
Ken@GetYourPHX.com

January 17, 2013by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis, Tips

Get Your PHX Market Briefing, Part 3

We found out in part 2 that While Prices Are Rising in Central Phoenix in 2012, they’ve risen most dramatically under $150,000. The high end properties of $800,000 and upwards have increased in price, but not nearly as dramatically. (Before I jump-in, I want to again recognize Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to share their work from the Cromford Report which is mixed in with my take that follows.)

 

The monthly average price per square foot in greater Phoenix in this chart to the left is very broad. Obviously, not every home is going to be at $100 per square foot, especially in central Phoenix.

 

Jump your eyes down to this little blue square in the center of the next chart, which will come up later.

 I’m going to be putting everything into the historical context of that square, which is Non-Distressed homes between 2005 and mid-2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County.

In this next chart, below, which shows the price per square foot from 2001 to Aug 2012, try to ignore the $190 Close Encounters peak  and take a look at the far left line. That’s the 2001 price lines. They were basically at about $100/sf at that time. Again, this is for the greater Phoenix average per square foot.

Based on that, here’s my rule of thumb: “Did you buy your home around 2001 or 2002 or before that?” You’re probably going to be okay to sell now, because you’ve survived the worst of it. If you’re thinking, “Gosh, I could really sell my home now”, or if you know someone who’s thinking that, make sure you both take a look at your specific area, before making the leap.

I know. What a relief.

Do we want to get back to over $190 per square foot, to that place where the UFO’s are landing on our mountain of Devil’s Peak? Heck no, not anytime soon. What this long-term context tells you is we do have a little bit of ways to go still. This is a great way to look at this to tell whether people are potentially underwater or those who are likely to be okay.

Next up: Median Sales Price.

We’re back to the little blue square I mentioned earlier: people who are potentially undewater from the 2005 to mid 2009 range.

When you take this median sales price, for single-family homes, all the way across the board, you can see it’s pretty obvious that during those years, for those people who are non-distressed (which is when we saw the big bubble and crash) these are the people who have not sold yet.

They’re potentially underwater, we don’t know for sure, but they’re not considered distressed or late on their payments.

So what’s going to happen with all of those? Are they suddenly going to find themselves in the market? Say, a year from now, when the prices get a little bit better for some of those people?

That’s going to be something that you’re going to want to watch.

I love this next particular chart. This tells you how much growth we have and how much potential you have if you happen to be an investor.


The long-term timeline with just general growth, year over year, (taking into account population, prices) is going to keep up at a regular pace.

This is a kind of equilibrium with a pretty good number of houses for sale that people will want to buy. This long distance in this chart is great because however long it takes us to reach that point, there’s still the potential for you to either buy something as an investment, and get some return on that investment, or buy a home and know that you didn’t buy it above what it should be worth.

Next, let’s look at greater Phoenix wide and then we’ll drill down closer into some specific zip codes. This is encouraging stuff. Okay, so look at this section listed as under $200,000.

 

 

 

Look at the price and notice that price per square foot has gone up 33% since August 2011. That’s citywide.

 

Now hop down to the next chart and look at the similar thing for greater Phoenix, between $200,000 and $500,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drill down between $200,000 and $300,000, for just these zip codes, look at this huge 14% growth!

This speaks to a premise  that I’ve been pushing for a very long time: in central Phoenix, especially around the light rail and historic neighborhoods, prices dropped the least and will come back the fastest.

This is something to keep in mind as density continues.

And $500,000 and $800,000, in the same areas in the same zip code?

Look at this 18% growth!

 

 

 

 

 

That’s from the lowest point to where we are right now, that’s a good place to stay.

 

 

$800,000-$1 million? See below: The growth is 5%. Again, that’s in the Camelback corridor area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Under Contract” homes is what this next chart is all about. We’ll end today’s brief on this. It offers a lot of insight.

If a house is under contract, you don’t know the price at which the house is under contract for. It’s private information. Let’s say you go to the multiple listing service and look at the sales price of the house and its $200,000. The next day, it says it’s “pending”. It still says $200,000 but that property could have a contract for $215,000 or $190,000. You just don’t know.

But MLS does because agents must report it

It’s in the system. They can’t tell you what it is. But they can report an aggregate.

So when you hear “Under contract. Legally average list price per square foot.” That means that on this date, 10/1/12, everything under contract was under contract for an average of $93.88 per square foot.

Those hosues aren’t going to close for 30 days, though. So, when you look at this chart and see that right now it’s $93.88 per square foot, that’s the amount that is going to be realized, most likely, in the market 30 or 40 days from now.

If you’re following this chart and you suddenly see this line turn a different direction, you have a very good indication that 30 days from now, that may be what the market is going to start to look like.

That’s as much of a crystal ball, as I think you are ever going to see.

The thing that’s impacting all of these numbers, especially in places like the Camelback corridor, and those other zip codes, is new-home sales recorded, as in “What are the homebuilders doing?”

Great Question. In part 4 of our Get Your Phx Market Briefing, we’ll find out that very thing…

December 15, 2012by phxAdmin
Phoenix News, Tips

Credit Unions: Funnel it Down (part 2 of 6)

Let me start out by saying that this investigation into credit unions may not take as long as I originally thought in part 1.  Just doing Internet searches, I found 10 in Phoenix metro. My criterion to narrow it down from there was simple geography: the proximity to Central Phoenix and the number of their locations. I did this via the most important investigative step: I found them all on the Local First Arizona website.  Reviewing those I narrowed them down from five to settle on three (the links that follow are to their reviews on Local First): Arizona Central Credit Union, Desert Schools Federal Credit Union, and Marisol Federal Credit Union.

I did all of this before I contacted any of the Credit Unions in person.

I then narrowed it down from three, to two, because Marisol Federal Credit Union wouldn’t pick up their phone. That’s a big deal when it comes to a bank. Before I called, I looked at their website and saw that in order to avoid fees on their accounts, the minimum balance was pretty high. I wouldn’t really save anything compared to my existing account at JPWellsComeriBank in that area. Conclusion: Marisol was out of the running.

I didn’t just pick up the phone, though, and start calling the three before I narrowed it down to two. I started with an Excel spreadsheet, naturally, where I prepared to rate each credit union according to the following categories:

  • Number of ATM locations?
  • Online system usability?”The online stuff is important because I don’t want to be forced to go into the bank. Who does? Small business owners want to be able to just get it done on their computers.” ~ Me
  • What did their bill pay system look like (and did it cost anything)?
  • Their security system (if credit card is stolen? How secure is their internal information?)
  • Customer service?
  • Fee structure (personal and business checking, personal and health savings?)
  • Reinvest locally?
  • Member of Local First Arizona?

That left two Credit Union’s worth more serious consideration: An actual physical trip to the branch.

I started with Desert Schools Federal Credit Union, before I went to Arizona Central Credit Union. In part 3 of my investigation, I’ll share those two experiences, what I decided and why. (I may even include another humorous link as a bonus. What? You didn’t see it? I’ll give you one guess which link it is…)

To see the next installment, please click here.

November 29, 2012by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis

Get Your PHX Market Briefing, Part 2

real estate market steamIn part 1, I ended with an argument I often hear from people after I describe what a “normal foreclosure market” looks like. There’s always going to be some percentage of people who should not have bought a house and now they’re upside down or late on payments.

The real interesting bit we can see is that there will still be some foreclosures and short sales coming on the market. The argument I hear some people say is:

All the banks were just holding onto their houses. They just hadn’t been listed yet. You’re not seeing them in the charts and graphs you’re using as evidence.

(Much of my briefing is based oncromford report link Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. A huge thanks to Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to use their work at my presentation and share it here as well.)

To answer those naysayers, let’s look at the “REO” (which is another way of saying “foreclosed property”, not a band who heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend…). The REO then is where the bank has already repossessed the house and is putting it on the market directly. This chart below is REO and includes everything sold between 2007 and 2012. The big blue Pac-Man looking thing on this chart is sales sold through MLS; in other words, 131,000 homes.

(graph, above)
“Sold wholesale” means some big investor bought a bunch of homes at one time. According to the chart, there are only 961 in escrow. When people talk about where to find this mythical crop of homes held back by the bank, you would find them in “Not yet listed.” Well, that’s a whopping 3,047 –not what I would call a wave of foreclosures.

Supply is down, but it’s also increasing.

This is a very interesting thing. Look at this next graph. If you look at December 2010 (far left) all the way into the future, you see a huge drop in supply. Homes being sold by Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the tiny sliver on top in gray, are few and far between and get a ton of offers when they come on the market.

(graph above)
The last two colors on the chart are short sales (light blue) and normal sales (darker blue).

You can see from this same graph that things are moving back up a little. Does that mean that we’re going to get back up to 35,000? No, because you’d have to have the same kind of event that put us into the recession to get back up to those numbers.

Let’s take that same thing, single family residential inventory, and look at the distressed sales.

 

It’s declined 77%.

That’s in terms of the active distressed listings. For those who don’t know, AWC means ‘Active With Contingencies’. Look at that chart again. See how it’s called “Distressed SFR Inventory (Excluding AWC)”? This means someone has an accepted offer on a short sale, but they’re waiting for their lender to say it’s okay to precede and close on that property. Let’s break it down a bit.

Look at the far right side of the same chart. There are 1,923 Active Distressed homes. It’s a huge decline. But this is the interesting part. Notice the top right corner of the graph, where it breaks down the percentages of the different price ranges listed.

Rather than do each price point, one at a time, let’s look at the combined total, the 81% of homes that are under $300,000. If you make another chart and take out the HUD homes, the REO’s, and the short sales, and compare those to where the normal sales have been…

 

…there’s basically no change since November 2011.

So what does this U-shaped area represent? I’m speculating here, but in my professional opinion, the normal sales coming back on the market comprise two types of sales: A) People who bought before 2003 or 2004 (so they are able to sell their house, get their money back, maybe make a little bit of money); or B) People who bought a house in 2008 or 2009—which was my advice to people at that time—and now they flipped it, or renovated it and put it back in the market. Those people are adding to the inventory.

The rebounding economy and stronger job numbers, plus incredibly cheap houses, are why–in this next graph–we went from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes. By “month supply of homes”, what is meant is that if you shut off the tap and prevented homes from being put on the market, how many months would it take to clear out what’s on there? In this case, it would take us one month to get from a 3.7 month supply of homes to a one-month supply of homes.

This is more drastic than, say, above $1 million homes, but all of this brings me to one point: single family homes that are affordable for most working families will continue to increase, in price and in value, in 2013. That’s even with the increase in inventory that we’ve seen here at the end of 2012.

Prices are rising. This is pretty obvious. You’ve probably heard it in the news. What wasn’t reported on the news, however, is that the rising prices in the last year are only happening at the low ends, under $150,000; far more than they’ve occurred at the high ends. Where’s my evidence? What do I draw from this conclusion? What should you conclude from it?

Stay tuned for Get Your PHX Market Briefing, part 3 where we’ll find out!

If you would like to be part of a future PHX Market Briefing, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

 

JUMP TO PART 3 OF THE MARKET BRIEFING HERE.

November 23, 2012by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis, Tips

Get Your PHX Market Briefing, Part 1

real estate market steamI was listening to the news recently. They were siting the Case-Shiller index talking about what the average home price was in America. This always seemed absurd to me. You could tell me that the average temperature in America is 75° and that doesn’t help me plan a trip. So I got to thinking, it would be great to have a sort of one-stop shop where people could come in and talk to people like Jeannie Bolger, Mike Orr, or myself.

So this past Tuesday, that’s what I did. We had a room of about 25 people. Some were buying houses, some selling them. Some were investors, some realtors, some mortgage brokers. Some were just curious. Another reason I did this was because I just wanted my friends to have this information. I know the market. I work hard to understand the market. We’ve been fighting some of the same myths over the past three years and I wanted to clear the air.

I covered several things in my presentation:

  • The home delinquency rate in America and in Maricopa County
  • The inventory that’s currently out there
  • Some interesting trends hidden inside the data.

Much of my briefing was based on Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. (Thanks to Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to share their work at the presentation and here as well.) I’m a huge fan of this report. If The Cromford Report were like the Grateful Dead, I would just follow them around everywhere, like a groupie. It’s very easy to understand, has helpful visuals, and is easy tocromford report link digest. Mike is not only behind The Cromford Report, he’s also the director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

Orr made this great statement, which he calls the Coiled Spring Theory:

The longer it takes for prices to respond, the larger prices are going to be.

I think that’s very true in the market right now. For greater Phoenix, the local average sales price per square foot, in just the last year, has seen a 30% increase in prices. Is that going to happen again this coming year? Quite possibly. And that has a lot to do with the number of homes left on the market, and where the next ones are coming from.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about delinquency. This is when people are simply late on their loans. They may foreclose. They may short sale.

I have heard the following phrase a lot over the past year:

We don’t know what the banks are hiding.

I like Mike Orr’s response to that. He says what they’re really saying is:

We’re too lazy to check.

It’s really easy to see what’s coming downstream from the banks. You can see it in several ways. First, by looking at the number of delinquency filings at the county courts. You can see who’s getting notices that they’re late on their loan and are in danger of being foreclosed. Second, you can see it in the number of trustee sales.

When you look at these numbers (see pictured graph, below), you see that Phoenix has no shadow inventory.

Phoenix was well above the USA average in 2009 and 2010 for the number of delinquent loans or foreclosures. Today, we’re below USA average. We’re number 38.

Below is another great snapshot of where we are.

Nevada is in a world of hurt right now. But things in Arizona are not what you have been hearing in the news over the last few years. It’s just not like that anymore for us. In fact, one of the reasons we saw the two big drops in Arizona (note the AZ drop-offs in the above graph) is that title companies got really good at processing short sales and they got us through that. So in Arizona, residential foreclosures are down.

If you want to see the big picture of why there is no shadow inventory, this next chart is a great thing to look at. I was saying it in Aug, 2011 (“If I have to hear another person predict a massive “shadow inventory” I’m going to turn green, and you wouldn’t like me when I turn green…) and I said it again this past July when I wrote about Countervailing Forces (you remember the graphic: two monopoly houses dueling with light sabers. I crack me up, sometimes.)

On this chart, that line on the bottom is the normal level at which people expect to see foreclosures in the market. There’s always going to be some percentage of people who should not have bought the house and now they’re upside down late on payments. The real interesting bit here is that based on this chart we can see that there are still going to be some things coming onto the market or those people are going to be short selling. They’ll find a way through it, but they’ll have a better chance at a better way through it then they would have three years ago.

Some people argue that I’m not looking in the right place. They’ll say,

All those banks are just holding onto their houses. They just haven’t been listed yet. You’re not seeing them in this chart.

Well those people will have to keep arguing, or holding their breath, until part 2 of this series on Get Your PHX Market Briefing. That’s when I’ll share how I answer those people and I’ll share some relevant and interesting insights about the inventory that’s actually out here in Central Phoenix.

If you would like to be part of a future PHX Market Briefing, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

[train photo: andrew_j_w] [modified with permission by Ken Clark]

JUMP TO PART 2 OF THE MARKET BRIEFING HERE.

jp

November 17, 2012by phxAdmin
Events General, Events GYP, Life

Phoestivus 2012!

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A TWO-NIGHT EVENT. DEC. 5TH AND 12.

Friends, it is official. Phoestivus is on and bigger than ever. Not only will we have over 50 vendors. Not only will we have at least 6 food trucks. Not only will we have feats of strength, an airing of grievances and the worlds largest Phoestivus pole (as far as you know).

Not only that, friends. But this:

We will have a Phoestivus beer garden sponsored by the Phoenix Ale Brewery.

But, wait. There’s more!

Phoenix Ale Brewery is brewing a special seasonal ale just for us.

Yes. That’s right. It will be called PHOESTIVUS ALE!

And why do we do this, friends? Why have 180 Degree Automotive, Cenpho.com, Core Crossfit, The Crescent Ballroom, Downtown Phoenix Partnership, the Downtown Voices Coalition, FM Solutions, REALTOR Ken Clark, Local First, New Times, Oasis on Grand and Yelp all joined Get Your PHX to co-sponsor this event?

We have come together to support Community Food Connections, the very folks who bring you the bi-weekly open air market in downtown Phoenix. The market has become our town center and we want it to thrive.

10% of what you spend at Phoestivus on goods and 100% of the proceeds from the beer garden will go to support Community Food Connections.

Put these dates on your calendar. If you are vendor, go to www.phoestivus.com to learn how you can participate.

And most of all, don’t miss it!

Click here to see the full amazing poster design by Christine Cassano.

 

November 4, 2012by phxAdmin
Homes, Market Analysis

Retirees on the Move to Urban Cores

There was a great story on KJZZ yesterday morning on their Changing America series. Reporter Peter O’Dowd talked about how retirees are moving into downtown areas and urban cores along the Valley Metro light-rail line.

Finding homes for these folks in CenPho is driven by a need I saw coming years ago: Baby Boomers—the post-WWII generation born between 1946 and 1964—are changing the way we view retirement. I say that because I have helped many folks in their retirement years as they search for homes in downtown. So, this story really hit home.

“As a group,” said Landon Jones in his book that coined the word, “[Baby Boomers], were the wealthiest, most active, and most physically fit generation to that time, and amongst the first to grow up genuinely expecting the world to improve with time.”

It should come as no surprise, then, that 60 housing units are opening at the end of this month in downtown Phoenix, along the “pedestrian friendly street with historic sidewalks and that sort of thing”—which is how Gordan and Company Developer Brian Swanton described Lofts at McKinley in the KJZZ piece.

The Lofts will attend to the lower and middle income residents, 55 years and older. It’s just a few blocks from a light-rail station. When the complex broke ground last year, KPHO reported,

Despite the lower price tag, amenities will not be cheap. Tenants met by doormen, high end appliances and even green products. Recycled water for irrigation purposes. Rent will range from $400 to $900. Eligible tenants must have an annual income between $18,000 to $32,000.”

There aren’t many seniors or retirees who can afford early retirement these days. Guaranteed pensions are even less likely. Swanson said that by 2013 close to 300 units for seniors will be available along the light-rail line between Phoenix and Mesa.

Shannon Scutari, who leads the Sustainable Communities Collaborative (and is quoted in the KJZZ piece), “helps coordinate a 20-million dollar fund to kickstart financing for affordable housing near transit. Without various stacks of private money, Scutari says the banks just aren’t interested in taking the risk on their own.”

Encore on Farmer is another senior housing complex that opened January in downtown Tempe.

The prospects are not just for rentals, but also for home sales in CenPho and downtown. This is what I find so exciting. I love the diversity. As a famous baby boomer said, “The times they are a changin’….”

There are plenty of homes, town homes, patio homes and condos for sale that meet this need. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 if you are interested to learn more.

[Lofts at Finley photo: combusean] [Baby Boomers photos: NGOA&ENGAF]

September 20, 2012by phxAdmin
First Time Home Buyer, Market Analysis, Tips

How to Improve Your Swing

For those looking to relieve some pressure from the uncertainty of when to swing their buy-it-now bat and make contact with the house-ball, the number of listings  are creeping up again, wouldn’t you know it. (See the brown line in the “Monthly Average Sales Price” chart below).

Why is that, you ask?

Many people who bought prior to 2005 are more comfortable selling now. And investors who bought those record low prices between 2009 and 2011 have renovated and are now selling. This means a little less pressure.

But, why, exactly? And how much less pressure?
Well, instead of six offers made on any given property within the first 48 hours, there will only be four. I say this slightly tongue in cheek, but really, it may actually take some of the pressure off. If you’ve been feeling like there’s no hope because there are not enough  properties for sale, and even when you find one you like enough to make an offer on there are still so many buyers, stay the course and stay strong.

There is hope!

So there are less offers being made, relieving some of the hopelessness, but then what? What’s the next market trend we can expect to follow this one? It’s not a guarantee, but in my professional opinion (based on this price chart, below), I don’t think we’ll get back up to 3,300 available properties like there were this time last year.

For one, the foreclosures and short sales are gone. That alone will keep things competitive, especially in the central corridor and historic neighborhoods.

Just knowing this going into the market will set things up better for your future house purchase. Now, we can plan accordingly. The listings ball is in motion. Let me help you improve your swing. Together, we can hit this one out of the park.

Give me a call at 602-456-9388.

Kenneth “Ken” Clark
REALTOR(r)
At Your Service!
HomeSmart
Ken@GetYourPHX.com

August 22, 2012by phxAdmin
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