Last week we talked about the headlines on the state of real estate in Phoenix as reported by the news media. We saw that the problem is, no one can see beyond about 3 to 6 months’ time, which is why organizations often contradict themselves in their predictions. To really nail this issue we’ll look soberly at two final headline topics. To assist me is Tina Tamboer, from the always insightful The Cromford Report.

First up, Affordability:

Look at how fast and ridiculous these headlines occur.

August 13, 2013, Housingwire – “Only 69.3% of homes were deemed affordable.”

That’s actually a very good number. Between 60% and 75% is normal. If it’s much higher than that means that luxury is not selling. You have to have a certain percentage of luxury in your market. Day after day after day, you can see headlines about how horrible that roughly 69% is, but it’s actually a good number. ~ Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

August 14, 2013, DS news.com – “Housing Affordability Drops To 4-Year Low Ends Rates, Prices Rise”

To say that housing affordability drops to a four-year low makes a person feel like saying, “Oh my God, ‘We’re in a bubble.’ But when you look at it, we were in such crazy affordability. When 87% of all homes that sell are affordable to a family making the median income, that’s really high. That just means that there isn’t any luxury selling; that that $500,000-$900,000 market is dead. There was no jumbo financing available for anyone to buy that doesn’t conform to a conventional loan. So, as the jumbo financing came back in is when you see that luxury market start taking market share and then you see your affordability rate go down. People think it’s bad, but it just means that luxury is coming back.  ~ Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

August 16, 2013, Wealth Daily – “One Homes Aren’t Affordable.”

August 18, 2013, USA Today – “Housing Affordability Falls With Rising Prices”

August 26, 2013, NBC news – “Home Prices Across the US Defy Gravity.”

September 17, 2013, The Week – “Is Housing Affordability Going Down The Drain?”

Look at that one month spread between mid-August and September 17. The headlines have affordability just dropping down until they declare it’s going down the drain. Such dramatics. Seriously? Give me a break.

Here’s an example of conflicting headlines. Even on the same day. This is about interest rates.

October 1, 2013, US Finance Post – “Mortgage Rates Rise For The First Time In Three Weeks, October 1.”

October 1, 2013, Zillow – “30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Continued Downward Spiral.”

October 2, 2013, Mortgage News Daily – “Mortgage Rates Paralyzed By Uncertainty.”

So how’s the consumer supposed to gather their information online? Do you believe everything you read? If you see on the Internet it must be true, right? It’s hard to figure out what the truth is, among so much drama and so many differing opinions. Unless you’re knee-deep in this stuff every day it can become very difficult to figure out whether you should buy or not.

The answer is knowing what to pay attention to more than who and educating yourself.

That’s really the key.

That’s where the data comes in to help you on your individual level. For example, it’s true the data shows that payments today are similar to those in 2008. But it also shows that they’re similar now to 2003 levels. It’s just above $1000 a month. At the peak of 2005, you would’ve paid $1900 a month for a 2000 square ft. home, paying $375,000. Today, that same home is just over $250,000 and your payment is just over $1000 a month; which is just where it was in 2003. So actually, now we are at 2005 prices and 2003 payments. ~ Tina Tamboer

All the media talks about is that affordability is the lowest it’s been since 2008. They just didn’t go back far enough. If you go back farther, that’s where you see that we’re not in a bubble. We are not in a bad situation.

This chasm is what a bad situation really looks like:

The point of this graph is the comparison between where we were in mid-2006 and where we are now at the tail end of 2013. We’re not seeing anything very alarming. We’re coming back down to normal (blue rectangle) after a period of extremely unusual affordability.

If you want to buy or sell, and you want the truth in the headlines you’re reading, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

In my October Market Briefing, The Cromford Report’s resident expert, Tina Tamboer, talked about about the Phoenix housing recovery not being expected until 2015 “Memory Lane predictions”.

These are a combination of predictions that never happened or that were completely wrong. An example is the Phoenix housing recovery prediction you’ll see from this how much things change as we move forward in time. The January 31, 2011 prediction. According to ABC 15 coverage of the Phoenix housing conference, the 2009 recovery was predicted in 2012; in 2010, they predicted recovery in 2014; and then in 2011, they change it again to 2015.

Listen to all of these predictions that never came true.

Zillo.com said that housing prices were going to appreciate 6.5%, but it turned out to be well over 26%. On August 6, 2012 Case Shiller predicted that Phoenix area home prices would decline year over year in Phoenix but they didn’t change that to a decrease of 9.5% by the first quarter of 2013, followed by a no change, flap Priceline between the first quarter of 2013 in the first quarter of 2014. Not only did neither of those come true, in fact, Phoenix ended up being the number one city in Case Shiller’s own index in 2013. So not only did the first prediction not come true, but the second prediction of no change between 2013 and 2014, we’ve actually seen prices continue to increase with no stabilization of pricing occurring so far this year.

On May 8, 2012 Phoenix business Journal predicted that Phoenix home prices would fall 11% that year. None of these came true. The only one that came true was on May 3, 2012, when CNN money predicted that buying a home won’t get much cheaper. This is the only thing that was anywhere near correct. Super general and not helpful in the slightest.

Let’s look at some news quotes from years past regarding shadow inventory.

It was widely reported in 2011 that shadow inventory would take close to four years to clear. Just over a year later, MSN real estate, said, “Remember the Looming Shadow Inventory? Never mind.”

This next one is really hilarious: Forbes reported in April of this year that not only are we in a bubble, but also, we have shadow inventory. Never mind that these are two mutually exclusive things. You cannot have a bubble and shadow inventory at the same time. One drives prices down. The other is artificial appreciation. These are two completely different extremes.

Doubletalk, Bubble Talk.

All of these analysts are basically fighting amongst themselves:

CNBC – 30 April 2013, “Boost in Home Prices Doesn’t Equal Bubble”

CNBC – 1 May 2013, “Why the Fast Rise in Home Prices Doesn’t Equal a Bubble.”

Yahoo News – 29 May 2013, “Real Estate Euphoria: Is America in a New Housing Bubble?”

The Economist – 7 June 2013, “No US Housing Bubble.”

NuWire Investor – 12 June 2013, “Reports Show No Phoenix Housing Bubble.”

CNBC – 22 June 2013, “Housing Market: from Recovery to Bubble. Already?”

CNBC – 10 September 2013, “CNBC: We’re in Another Housing Bubble.”

Housingwire – 23 September 2013, “Experts: We Are Not in a Housing Bubble.”

The most credible source would be The Economist. NuWire is pretty good. CNBC is just trying to get eyes on their articles. It’s interesting to see how CNBC has changed their headlines between April and September. “We’re a bubble.” “We’re not in a bubble.” “Oh my God, where in a bubble.” “False alarm. No bubble.”

If we look at headlines from 2012 and 2013, regarding jobs and employment, you’ll find the same confusion confliction.

It just shows that we have a lot of confusing, conflicting headlines in the news media.

As a consumer who is not an expert in all of the different indicators, you don’t really know what to think regarding prices and appreciation. All of that can create insecurity in a buyer. Buyers don’t like uncertainty, so headlines like that can create a lot of skepticism. In truth, skepticism is a healthy thing. It keeps our prices from going too crazy.

The whole purpose of showing you these predictions is for you to see that people who do that much predicting this far in advance really don’t know what they’re talking about. The Crawford Report, however, gives what Tina Tamboer calls “headlights”:

If you feel like you’re driving at night in the real estate market, the Crawford Report just gives you some headlights to know if there’s a curve in the road up ahead. We don’t know what the weather is like in your destination. You can do some pretty good predictions on short-term level, but once you get past 3 to 6 months from now, you become a lot less accurate.”

Next week:
Affordability & Interest Rates Headlines recap and what The Cromford Report headlights show in the realistic next 3 to 6 months.

If you want to buy or sell, and you want my headlight view for the next 3 – 6 months in your desired location, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

As I mentioned in my last post in this series about the illusions of real estate sites like zillow.com,  trulia.com, and realtor.com, websites like these do not have as many search description fields compared to the extensive search capabilities of our MLS.

               First, let’s talk about how buyers are affected

In MLS, a property could be ‘active’, ‘UBC’ (excepting backup offers), ‘pending’, ‘closed’, ‘expired’, ‘canceled’. The three websites mentioned previously, only show ‘active’, ‘pending’, or ‘closed’. To show how significant it is to be missing something like the indication of UBC, this typically indicates that the property is accepting back up offers on a short sale, which means you might inquire about  seeing the home.

Another great example is with the Multi-Listing Service, which has a time of more descriptions about what is in the property: for example, is a block construction or wood construction, does the home have any energy efficiency features, and if so, which ones?

               How sellers are affected

If you’re a buyer and you look Zillow.com to see what an estimate is of the value of your home, you won’t find an actual “estimate”, but in fact a word like “Zestimate”. This could be that they can’t call what they do an actual “estimate” legally, just like “Froot Loops” can’t say they have fruit in them.  Functionally, they just don’t have access to the MLS data the way we do and so their estimates of home prices must be constructed from other, less accurate sources. 

For instance, if you go to the County Assessor and see what they estimate as the assessed value of your home, that is not the same as the estimated price or market value. Their assessed valuation, in fact, is designed to be way off of what the market actually is. They are prevented by law from increasing their estimate of your home value too fast so that your taxes (which are based on that value) are not raised too quickly. So a lot of where these websites are getting their estimates of your home is informed largely by, if not based on, the local County Assessor’s office.

In fact, there is a page on the Zillow.com website that describes their estimates and actually says,

“[Our estimate] is not an appraisal”

“Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home.”

I’d give you the link, but there’s a lot of hobly-gobly-now-you-see-the-truth-now-you-don’t nonsense in the writing that’s hypnotic and designed to get you to ignore the man behind the curtain who’s actually short, timid, and uncertain of much of anything. Need more proof? Check out their ‘Data Coverage and Zestimate Accuracy Table’, where you’ll learn that 86.4% of their Zestimates in the Phoenix area are as much as 20% off the actual sales price.

Let me say that again: 86.4% of their Zestimates in the Phoenix area are as much as 20% off the actual sales price.

This is one of the reasons you want to use a professional agent with access to the MLS. Well, like ME for instance!

If you want to buy or sell, and care about how you are affected as a seller or buyer, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

If you’ve been following my posts recently, you know I’ve taken to finding people I admire in CenPho and doing profiles of them. Nicole Gaskell came to a Get Your PHX event a few months ago and I learned about her inspiring story.

Nicole Gaskell lives in Central Phoenix and is the President & Executive Director of Alert Aware!, a non-profit organization she founded in 2011 which trains students from pre-school to high-school in self defense techniques, believing that every student should have an opportunity to learn self-defense tactics and awareness training.

Nicole has trained under many legends in the industry: people like Guro Dan Inosanto (student of the late Bruce Lee), Ajarn Surachai Sirisute (founder and President of the Thai Boxing Association of the USA), Erik Paulson (first American to win the Japan World Light-Heavy Weight Shooto Title), Sifu Francis Fong (one of the top Wing Chun instructors and martial artists in the world) and many others. How many self-defense techniques does she know? Jun Fan Gung Fu, Muay Thai Boxing, Western Boxing, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Wing Chun, Shooto Wrestling. 

Alert Aware! works directly with schools and community organizations, providing self-defense and awareness training at all levels. Nicole’s passion for teaching, combined with her extensive background in martial arts is what led her and her colleagues to start Alert Aware! Their mission is to bring world-class training to kids where it’s more convenient—in their schools.

Nicole was raised in upstate New York, where she attended the Martial Arts Academy at the initiation of her mother as a child. She loved it so much she took classes almost every day until it became part of her lifestyle. After college at Niagara University, she took her Bachelor’s Degree in marketing and military science and joined the military and they took her to Germany for a few years.

In Germany, she was in the 72^nd Signal Command, where she used her marketing and project management expertise to organize concerts with bands like Aerosmith when they’d perform for the troops. 

I was really impressed with the way Nicole is integrating life lessons like these directly into our Phoenix schools and community.

If you want to buy or sell near a school or community organization where Nicole teachers, or just to buy or sell in Central Phoenix, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

How can you get FREE law services for your established Phoenix business if you’re unable to afford it?

The Delgado Law Group, PLC was just awarded—for the 3^rd time—the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the City of Phoenix (yep, just like in a previous post when we noted that an architectural firm won the grant for their free architectural services),if you’re within the City of Phoenix you just might qualify as one of a few firms to get their law services for free.

“The CDBG grant allows my firm to provide entrepreneurs and small businesses located in Phoenix with business legal services, including but not limited to, business formation and planning, contract drafting and compliance, commercial real estate, trademarks, employer/employee relations, and other legal services relating to day to day business operations.” ~ Jennifer Delgado

Why was the Delgado Law Group selected for this grant?

In 2009 and 2011 they were also awarded the grant to provide legal services to low/moderate income business owners through the City’s Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program. Because of how well the Delgado Law Group provided their clients in the program with individual attention, integrity, efficiency and commitment, the City then awarded Jennifer’s firm with the Economic Development Award of Excellence in 2011.

How can you take advantage of the CDBG Grant and put these community-driven lawyers at Delgado Law Group to work for you?

Follow these steps:

1. Contact the Delgado Law Group at (602) 821 – 7461 or reach Jennifer Delgado directly – jrd@delgadolawgroup.com
2. Give them your business address and/or household income stated on last year’s tax returns and they’ll see if you’re a qualified participant.
3. Note that you must intend to hire people and that the program is not available for non-profits or churches. However, the program is flexible and is sincerely looking for people who really need the help.
4. Delgado Law Group will give you a CDBG application.
5. Fill it out and they’ll make a determination of whether your business qualifies.
6. If approved, Delgado Law Group will provide all legal services and associated costs free of charge.

The principal of Delgado Law Group, Jennifer Delgado, received her undergraduate degree with honors from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in 1996, and her law degree from Boston College Law School in 2000. She is a member of both the Business Law and Real Property Law sections of the Arizona State Bar and is licensed to practice before the Arizona Supreme Court, the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Ms. Delgado sits on the Board of Directors of Roosevelt Row Community Development Corporation and is a past president of the organization.  The firm is also a charter member of Local First Arizona, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting independently owned local businesses in Arizona.

If you want to buy or sell a home, be ye a Lawyer yay or nay, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

Jump back to late 2010. At an urban infill site on the south end of downtown Phoenix, designer and visionary Vincenz Saccento has just installed three multi-units of his shiny, silver, boxes:  called V100 Modboxes. Watch this 3-min video produced at the time. Be awed. Be inspired. Be proud of these inventive Phoenicians. Then keep reading.

Did you watch the video?

Now hear this: From Get Your PHX, I bring August 2013 news of what has not been publically known until this very moment…

In the video you saw, you learned that the V100 Modbox can be constructed in just few days by people with no technical training. Well, get this. In my conversation with designer Vincenz Saccento last week, he told me something not previously announced to the public:

A full modbox can now be constructed in just 7 hours, by a single person, with no tools, and zero prior building experience!

That’s right. Seven hours. Still with no nails, screwdrivers, or hammers required. No screws, nails, or wood.  This baby is high-tech structural, aviation and aerospace materials that a school teacher or college student could build. But wait, there’s more!

That’s right, folks. When the last article about V100 Modbox was published in 2010 by Blue Vertical Media, the 2010 material for the walls was 4″ thick.

That’s the thickness of the walls in which Vincenz lives, today. They exceed the standards for LEED Platinum certification (meaning that out of 100 possible points in categories of the sustainability of the site, water efficiency, energy & atmosphere, materials & resources, indoor environmental quality, and innovation in operations, the V100 Modbox far surpasses this rating).

So those 4″ walls are maybe an R35 insulation rating. He then showed me a piece of the wall for the next incarnation they’re building with today:

It’s 5/8 of one inch thick! Much less expensive. AND…

It’s like an R-zero rating. It could be 3000 degrees outside and that heat’s not getting through,” said Saccento.

The neighborhood in this hugely rundown area of town has been changing for the better since the V100 Modbox came here. Attitudes are changing. Neighbors are cleaning up outside their homes. Surprisingly, nobody has graffitied the Modboxes.

More of the same?

The “shimmery 10’x10‘x10’ boxes” are ready to go. Vincenz Saccento could have 100 of them ready in a month, if an order asked for them. But that’s not what he’s preparing to do next. He’s got his sites on a pop-up mall.

You go to an empty piece of land for 3-5 years and put in coffee, breakfast, lunch, bar, working/co-working space. Maybe it’s 40ft x 40ft x 20 ft.” ~ Vincenz

In order to gauge a correct ‘supply and demand’ temperature for today’s Phoenix, it’s important to understand how far we’ve come.  (If you missed last week’s post, be sure to read part 1 of this series to catch up on the new definition of ‘supply and demand’).

Our market is a lot more complicated that it was in 2004/2005. Today, you do need a job to get a loan. It’s far more important than it was in 2005 when loans were as easy to get as raising your hand in class.

The nation’s unemployment rate had soared to over 10%. Maricopa County’s employment rate this past January? 7.1%. It then went down to 6.5%, then 6.6% and now we’re at 6.5%. Tucson is just a touch behind us at 6.7% unemployment.

Our biggest areas of growth are leisure and hospitality.

Because most of our losses were in leisure and hospitality, this is a good thing. A lot of the losses were in the construction and tourism industry when we went through our unemployment. Those industries are now in the top three and haven’t been since 2011.  ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

Education and health services were one of our top growths in 2011 and 2012. So now construction is starting to pick up, as is professional business services.

We’re one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation for bioscience (“Arizona bioscience sector adding jobs at four times the national rate“) and high technology. The average income in these sectors is $85,000 a year, an increase of 15% since 2011. As you see we have a lot of good things happening here.

We’ve had 30 companies either relocate or significantly expand their business out here – and 10 within just the last year; big ones like State Farm, Union Bank. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

These things we’re talking about are a big part of the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County. It’s the why we know that home prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. How is this happening? What winds shifted (or are shifting) that is drawing businesses to expand or migrate here? How do we account for those 30 companies migrating here in the first place? And because they are coming here, why do we still have such a shortage of properties?

That’s right. Next week!

To buy or sell with the our city’s macro view in mind, please call or email me at 602-456-9388 or ken@getyourphx.com

[‘now and then’ photo by Melody Ayres-Griffiths]

“Whipeeeeeeee!”

              or

“Whoaaaaaaaa!”

Every square in this rainbow slide (not the one on the left, though that does look like fun. I mean every square in the image below) represents a month—January, February, March—all going up.

This covers central phoenix and downtown zip codes, historic and older neighborhoods. One vertical stack of those boxes adds up to one year. See how we’ve dropped quite precipitously:  from 7,500 (in 2010) to 5,800 (March, 2013). In 2008 to 2010 a lot of those were short sales and foreclosures. You can shrink inventory, but the demand is still there and what happens? The price goes up.

Same three-month moving average

In this next slide is the average of all three months going back in time. In this way you keep from getting a bunch of blips that aren’t really accurate. See in those downtown zip codes how we’ve gone from $117 in September 2012 to now at $144 per square foot. Let’s look at year to year. March 2012: $105 to $144. That’s a big jump. Now the three month moving average is going to be more extreme than 12-months, because we’re averaging prices today and 12 months ago. The line is smoother and more conservative.

See from March 2012 it went from $96 to $149 per square foot. This $123 represents the average price for this day and the three months before. So you’re seeing that upward trend. Now, in downtown Scottsdale, we’re starting at higher prices.

Follow me on this:

In March 2004—in the recent comparisons slide, below—the monthly average price per square foot was $115. By the end of 2004 it was $131, a 16% increase. In March 2013, it was at $114, with very similar conditions. We started in January 2013 at $108.

Do we think the price can get to a similar 16% increase point by the end of 2013? This increase from $108 to $114/$116 is a very similar line. So for 2013, yes, I think we’re anywhere in a 16% – 20% price increase, just like 2004. I think we could very easily see average prices by the end of this year, somewhere between $125 and $130.

Now let’s take that same 15% – 20% increase—seen here in this next slide of this more-conservative 12-month moving average price per square foot—and apply it county wide to only Phoenix and Scottsdale, keeping in mind the trend-line I talked about in this post.

Phoenix was on a 12-month moving average in March of this year, sitting at $129 price per square foot (for those same zip codes). If you apply that same 15% – 20% increase, you’re looking at $140 – $146 by the end of this year. Apply that same 15% – 20% increase to the Scottsdale area, starting at $156 for the 12-month moving average, you’re looking at $170 to $175 by year’s end.

I think it’s very reasonable to say that we’re going to be there by the end of 2013.

Let’s compare visually

This here, in this next slide/image is for the whole county and is just by way of an illustration. 2004 (the blue line) and 2012 (the purple line) looked a lot the same in terms of path upward. At the end of March, we were about to surpass the same place we were in 2004.

Attention. Attention. Here ye the Town Criers.

Every few weeks, it seems, we hear a lot in the news about how they’re breaking new ground and there is all these new developments. Each one of those dots in the chart represents a month. In the month of Jan, Feb 2007 we built 4,000 houses. Over the course of over 2006, we built something like 60,000 homes. It was insane. They were crappy, throw-‘em-up houses. And now the news loves to proclaim:

Look! We’re building again!

But the number is tiny. It’s about 250 – 300 homes.

This is important to Central Phoenix for a couple reasons: These new builds are out in the fringes of Phoenix, so you’re not adding to central Phoenix inventory. Also, they’d have to build a lot more of these homes on the fringes for it to have any impact on prices in central Phoenix.

I don’t want to list ‘cause it’s going to be worth so much more a year from now.

But what happens if everyone holds off from selling? People will stop looking and prices go up.

Urban Density: Take away

• Investors –If you want to invest in something, get your mind around the fact that you’re more likely to hold it than flip it and get a better price for it; because the margin’s not there or you’re not going to get cash flow because you paid so much for that thing to begin with and nobody’s going to pay that much rent.

• Sellers –Watch for possible price plateau during the summer. With these price increases, don’t just think I’m gonna hold a year to sell and get this higher price, that’s not necessarily so. Also, with these price increases, people who are thinking this, don’t be so certain, because either people stop buying, or people are prices out of the market, or a lot more people say, “Look the prices are there, go, go, go!” I don’t think you can be that confident for a year or even 9 months from now.

• Urban Cores – are in need of urban infill. Detached residential and condos are coming in the burbs, but we need more rooftops centrally.

• Prices – They’re not necessarily a result of heavy demand, because there’s no inventory coming up the way we thought it would.

Be ye Investor, Seller, Buyer, or Town Crier, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com. I’ll get it done.

[slide image: Trish_Gee88]

Last week, I promised to show you the real kicker. Here it is: Non distressed homes are taking on a greater role in the market. The distressed houses are going away.

What did the line look like for non-distressed homes? These are people who didn’t necessarily lose their home but their values went down. Watch what happens here, ‘cause this is the real kicker that reveals why it is we’re not in a bubble.

This chart is for Maricopa County, Median Home Sale Prices: NON-DISTRESSED SALES ONLY

The red arrow indicates the 18% pricing increase in the bubble. This was bubble-pricing at the beginning of the bubble. The large red circle that follows is what a real bubble looks like.

Now look at where we are now in this next chart. Look at the matching 16% increase at the far right of the chart, marked in blue.

We’re just matching the increase of Q4 2003-2004! Ask yourself:

What did it take to get us to where we were at the outset of the bubble? Recall those three big components from my part 2 analysis, last week. Are those at play here in the market again?

No.

We don’t have 100% financing.
We don’t have mortgage cash backs.
We don’t have schemes.

People have to have money. You have to 3.5% down, minimum for FHA. The conditions before are not the same now:

Mortgage lenders have to go to class and get licensed, just like agents now. Lenders didn’t have to do that before. You have to have some skin in the game nowadays, but you didn’t really have to have that back then. We’re not seeing those kinds of things. So for normal home prices, that dashed light blue line  in the chart above,  we’re right on the normal.

The normal home sellers and buyers are just kind of hanging out. When you look at what the prices are today

(~ $200,000 – per the number of the far right side of the above chart) and then look back into the past at the last time we were at that point, in the fourth quarter of 2004 (~ $193,950), you start to see what your equity is.

In the graph above, if you bought your home in the green box on the left, 2001 to late 2004, you had equity. If you bought it in the box on the right, late 2009 to now, you have equity. Now’s the time to sell.

Next week: Welcome to Recovery Mode (part 4)

To sell (or buy) please give me a call at (602) 456-9388 or email ken@getyourphx.com.

In Part 1 of my “Riding the Rollercoaster” post from last week, I hope I made it clear what a normal market looks like, why it’s  important to remember that the market is a function of supply and demand, and why price is a trailing factor running two months behind the market.

A person’s natural question when they learn these things is “Oh, is this another bubble?”

Now, we’re going to show you why we don’t think it’s a bubble.

We think we are  normalizing.

Don’t Burst My Bubble

Here’s evidence that we’re not in a bubble. Below is a graph of distressed sales in percentages for Maricopa County.

• The grey background is all the sales from the Multi Listing Sales Data.
• “Lender owned” is in red. See how from 2010 through 2012 it’s going down, down, down. This red line is a percentage of sales, relative to the orange and green lines. Add up each point on a different colored line and you get 100% of sales.
• “Short sale” is in orange. See how it’s been fluttering pretty steadily up and down since 2001 and then in Dec 2012, it drops, drops?
• “HUD” in blue has always been around 3% or so since 2001. Really consistent, regardless of recession activity.
• “Traditional Sale” is in green. Just a nice, even climb, upward.

So as two of these have been declining—Lender Owned, since 2010; Short Sales, since Mid-2012—and with HUD Sales always at regular levels, only Traditional Sales are going up.

On average, over the long term were getting back to the point where a certain percentage is always going to be foreclosures. Before this pre-recession bubble, nobody knew what a short sale was. Agents didn’t know what to do with them; they didn’t even know how to process them. The vast majority of agents never had to deal with them before.

Appreciation by Transaction Type

This next chart shows the monthly average sales price per square foot. At the far left of the blue line is December 2009 when we were at $123.70 per square foot. So even though we have more properties coming on the market, which we know from the previous chart and its evidence of increasing Traditional Sales,

It’s not like you’re seeing this radical push up in price, says Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter (Get Your PHX Team/Cromford Report)

What Tina means by this is that you have more things on the market that are normal. If this were a bubble you’d look at all the properties and you’d see them all go up in price. Here, you’re seeing more come on the market, but they’re still not up in price. They’re at the same price per square foot.

Maricopa County Median Home Sales Prices

The faint blue dashed line is the long-term trend line. Back in January 2001, at the far left, the median home sales price for Maricopa County was $139,500. The dashed long-term trend line continues upward to the right. If we had a forever normal market, you’ll always see this nice long slide upward. At my last market analysis gathering on March 21, Tina showed us what happened in the bubble and why.

Look at the spike up on the left of the Matterhorn shape. Why did it go up like this? You had 100% financing, people were getting cash back from their mortgages, and you have all these schemes.

And then there was that one day when somebody couldn’t sell their house for more than they thought they would. And then their neighbor, who had all this extra money taken out of their house, suddenly found that their house wasn’t worth anything, and then there was Wall Street, which didn’t help, and then it all started to tumble apart.

So now track your eyes at the tipping point of that mountain to the right, where in 2007 you had foreclosures, people couldn’t sell houses, nobody could get financing to buy up the houses that were sitting there, and you had unemployment. So that’s when we hit that lowest, lowest point in January 2009. The lift in the line between the bottom of January 2009 and that first little peak is when people were trying to get that first time home buyer’s tax credit. Then it dropped again. That’s the best effect we could do with that tax credit.

Then the lowest median sales price that we had was $123,150 in March 2011. Right now, April 2013, we’re at $180,000. You can see that on the far right of the graph. See how we’ve had a 23% increase in the median home sale prices since March 2011?

The Skinny.

If we were in pace with that long-term dashed trend line of a normally rising market, we’d be at the $200,000 mark. But because we’re at the $180,000 mark, this means that we still have some time here. The point is that we’re still $20,000 under a normal median sales price.

We’re not at a bubble yet.

But the real kicker is this:  …and I’m going to show you that very thing next week.

In the meantime, if you want to sell or buy, please give me a call  (602) 456-9388 or find me at ken@getyourphx.com