Are they just uninformed people? Those who declare “The Bubble is coming! The Bubble is coming!”? We know we’re not in a bubble, based on the first four parts of this series, but where do the voices of doom come from?
I’ll tell you something: earlier this year, before I sat down and took a good hard look at the facts and figures, before I started laying the foundation for my market analysis briefing (upon which this series is based), before I did all, I’ve got a tell you I was worried that we were getting into minor-bubble land.
But Get Your PHX/Cromford Report team mate Tina Tamboer talked me off that ledge.
People are seeing agents listing properties at irrationally high prices. This doesn’t necessarily mean we are in a bubble. What it means is: agents are listing properties at irrationally high prices just because their clients want them to go fishing for a higher price.
Their buyers are telling them, “I want you to list it here, at this amount.”
Their agents may tell them, “Uh, that’s a little high for the comps.”
And the seller says, “No. I want to list it here.”
Agents advise, but can ultimately only do what they’re told. If a client wants to list it high, you list it high. Other people see that pricing, then they try to list it high, etc.
Remember I said in the summer things slowdown in terms of sales?
I’ve indicated in green lines, below, the first and second quarters between 2001 and 2013. Right now, we’re just hanging out close to our long-term average.
Which means what, exactly?
This year, watch for prices to go up for the first two quarters [like they always do]. People will be listing furiously. You still are not going to see the number of listings you saw during the bubble. When you get into the summer, at the beginning of that third-quarter, and all the way through the third quarter, you’re not going to see a slump, but a plateau. ~ Tina Tamboer, Get Your Phx/Cromford Report
People go on vacation and fewer people list. Glance back to all those sections with the green lines. Note that regardless of the severity or abundance of sales, Q1 and Q2 sales always increase, followed by a plateau. So here’s the take away: if you are thinking of listing, it is better to list it and sell in the first two quarters.
Right now, we’re just at the beginning of the second quarter. You still have just shy of three full months. If you put a property on right now, chances are – unless you’re priced way above market – you’re going to get your house sold in a matter of weeks. If it’s a nice, clean property in central Phoenix and most parts of town, you’re going to sell pretty quickly.
Once you get to the summer, you might see activity slowdown, and prices fall back a little bit.
Do you really want to risk that?
When you get into the end of the year, what happens? Look back up to the chart again at Q4 over the years. You’ll see that end of the year home selling is not as good as beginning of the year. Why? Because in October, November and December, people are beginning to think about holidays, which is why sales slowdown at the end of the year. The conclusion is the same: the best time of the year to sell your home is in the first two quarters.
The first quarter of 2013 ended a week ago. You’ve got less than one quarter left.
If you’re thinking of getting your home out there, talk to me.
We’ll get it out there.
Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com
[megaphone man: Shrieking Tree ]
