Why does Phoenix still have such a shortage of properties?

As we learned from my previous posts on this series (part 1 and part 2) this inward migration from the east coast and midwest into Phoenix is one of the key reasons home prices will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. There’s a logical explanation for the shortage of properties.

Look first at the motivation for out-of-state companies to come here in the first place:

It started when California changed their tax code and started to tax the Internet retailers. So when those Internet retailers started coming into Phoenix, they began by taking up our warehouse spaces. At the same time the Arizona legislature restructured our tax codes so that we were more competitive with states like California, Texas, and New Mexico. ~ Tina Timboer, Cromford Report

Notice our standard of living here compared to other major cities. Those companies coming here don’t have to pay their employees as much money. Why pay them a six figure salary, when they can get the same middle class life out here, but for much less? You can get a 2,400 sq ft, four-bedroom, two bath home out here for very affordable prices. Compare us against New York, San Francisco, even Texas. Plus, GPEC (Greater Phoenix Economic Council) has just done a great job to attract those out of state businesses, too.

The average website visitor reads from a screen at 180 words/minute. I’ve already used 15, so I better get to the point of the matter. Which is this:

The only thing that really affects our supply and demand of homes in Maricopa County is people going out of, and people coming in to, our County. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report

That’s right, folks. Migration.

There used to be other things that affected supply and demand (and we’ll get to those in part 2 of this market analysis) but not any more. Some of you are looking to buy. Some are looking to sell. After you hear what I have to share with you, you may want to rethink your plans. Or, you may find your plans are confirmed by what you learn.

Some of you may want evidence that what I’m about to tell you is certifiable and trustworthy. I’ll tell you. It’s because it comes from The Cromford Report. For those who’ve not been following my blog posts for long, you don’t know how much I admire this report. If The Cromford Report were touring like The Grateful Dead or Phish, I’d follow them around. If Ben & Jerry’s were looking for a new flavor, I’d suggest they call it ‘Cromford’. Don’t just take my word for it. Listen to what Tina Timboer, the absolute Guru of all things Cromford, has to say:

Prices will continue to go up in Maricopa County for the foreseeable future.

How do we know this? Because Michael Orr, the founder of The Cromford Report is an Oxford educated mathematician. Because he is the Director for the Real Estate Theory and Practice of ASU. Because he personally cleans up all the public record data for ASU’s Real Estate department. Because The Cromford Report does not buy/sell property, but is solely an analytical firm. Michael Orr puts together all the data at The Cromford Report. Nobody knows the real estate market better than Orr.

Let’s get back to supply and demand. You’ve been hearing a lot about interest rates and you want to know what the long-term trend will be? How will interest rates affect buying/selling homes? Next week, I’ll share what Tina had to say about the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County and how we know that prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. Yes, because Michael Orr said so, but more importantly, it’s why he says so.

Trust me, you’ll nod your head and think, “That makes perfect sense. I should look at the macro view more frequently before I hear the news tell me the Case–Shiller Home Price Index says homes are selling for X amount nationwide. Which is just like saying the average temperature in the country is 76 degrees, but golly it’s 110 degrees in Phoenix!”

Exactly. Come back next week to hear what the supply and demand “temperature” really is in Phoenix and why.

To buy or sell, informed and with confidence, give me a call or email me at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com

  [migration photo:  Billtacular]  

This time last year the summer sky was overcast and the rain was on it’s way. This last week, we got over 117 degrees and there’s a 10% chance of rain, but I don’t know that I believe it will actually happen. A year ago this week, short sales were all the rage and the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act allowed you to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven–but that ran out at the end of 2012.

Speaking about the end of the year, we’re in the second quarter now and that Q4 time from October through December will be here before you can say “Jimmy Crack Corn”. As the old-time realtors say, “Them be the slow months. Might as well kick up your heels and sit for a bit”.

But as I find myself thinking about the end of the year, I can tell you in my experience that last Halloween through New Year’s was all work for me in the real estate business. People were buying and selling through me last Q4 like there was no change of the season.

What “they” say is supposed to happen is that people stop buying or selling houses because the holidays just creep up on them and they get distracted. They say the market slows down after the summer and maybe you can negotiate a better deal during the holidays or Christmas. That has definitely not been the case for me in the last three years.

Look at previous years in the chart below. You’ll see this is generally true; especially around Thanksgiving. In the first chart, you’ll see the last nine years. Some of them drop off drastically, but come back around February.

In the second chart you will see 2004 and 2005 compared to 2010 and 2011. In ’10 and ’11 there was a little drop around November, but then we just picked right up again.

In other words:

ONE: Don’t assume the end of the year is going to be slow. Selling or buying? Take advantage of the active market during the summer months.

TWO: It’s been hectic the last two years. We have every reason to believe it’s going to be hectic this year, too.

THREE: If you want to buy or sell, Summer, Q3 or Q4 or beyond, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

On June 30th of this month, this coming Sunday, the sun will raise the temp over 115. (At precisely 2:47pm, on June 26, yesterday, in 1990, the temperature hit 122 degrees. That record is unbroken. We hope this weekend it will remain that way.) And yes, anything over 110 is plenty hot enough, but their are two golden reasons you should get exited about this coming Sunday:  “Indie Week” starts!

Here be ye Golden Coupon.

It’s the ticket to saving 20% off purchases from 282 local Arizona businesses being honored and recognize by Local First Arizona. This list of participating businesses will be continually added to through the month of June. Simply print the Golden Coupon from the LFA website or pull it up on your smartphone and use it at as many participating locations as you like (some restrictions may apply).

 Local businesses are the backbone of this country and we have a lot to thank them for.”  ~ Local First AZ news page

The official name is “National Independents Week”, but if you’re cool and hip “Indie Week” is the bee’s knees. (I may have lost some cool points on that last bit).

What better time to thank independent local businesses who are responsible for local job creation and so much community involvement?

Independents Week is especially important in Arizona during the slow summer months for many of our local business owners,” says Kimber Lanning, Director of Local First Arizona.

Our hope is that consumers will learn about the value of supporting local businesses during Indie Week, and then continue to support our independent businesses far beyond our week-long celebration.”

Step up and take the pledge to support Indie Week. Everyone who takes the pledge will automatically be entered into a contest to win a staycation: the package includes a one night stay at Globe’s Noftsger Hill Inn Bed and Breakfast and a meal at Safford’s A Step Back in Time Coffee & Deli.

When:   Sunday, June 30 through Sunday, July 7

Where:  All over Arizona in 282 independent businesses.

I chose to work with HomeSmart because it is locally-owned. I left my previous brokerage because it was bought out by an out-of-state company. I put my money where my mouth is and I will do that with the purchase or sale of your home. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

“Whipeeeeeeee!”

              or

“Whoaaaaaaaa!”

Every square in this rainbow slide (not the one on the left, though that does look like fun. I mean every square in the image below) represents a month—January, February, March—all going up.

This covers central phoenix and downtown zip codes, historic and older neighborhoods. One vertical stack of those boxes adds up to one year. See how we’ve dropped quite precipitously:  from 7,500 (in 2010) to 5,800 (March, 2013). In 2008 to 2010 a lot of those were short sales and foreclosures. You can shrink inventory, but the demand is still there and what happens? The price goes up.

Same three-month moving average

In this next slide is the average of all three months going back in time. In this way you keep from getting a bunch of blips that aren’t really accurate. See in those downtown zip codes how we’ve gone from $117 in September 2012 to now at $144 per square foot. Let’s look at year to year. March 2012: $105 to $144. That’s a big jump. Now the three month moving average is going to be more extreme than 12-months, because we’re averaging prices today and 12 months ago. The line is smoother and more conservative.

See from March 2012 it went from $96 to $149 per square foot. This $123 represents the average price for this day and the three months before. So you’re seeing that upward trend. Now, in downtown Scottsdale, we’re starting at higher prices.

Follow me on this:

In March 2004—in the recent comparisons slide, below—the monthly average price per square foot was $115. By the end of 2004 it was $131, a 16% increase. In March 2013, it was at $114, with very similar conditions. We started in January 2013 at $108.

Do we think the price can get to a similar 16% increase point by the end of 2013? This increase from $108 to $114/$116 is a very similar line. So for 2013, yes, I think we’re anywhere in a 16% – 20% price increase, just like 2004. I think we could very easily see average prices by the end of this year, somewhere between $125 and $130.

Now let’s take that same 15% – 20% increase—seen here in this next slide of this more-conservative 12-month moving average price per square foot—and apply it county wide to only Phoenix and Scottsdale, keeping in mind the trend-line I talked about in this post.

Phoenix was on a 12-month moving average in March of this year, sitting at $129 price per square foot (for those same zip codes). If you apply that same 15% – 20% increase, you’re looking at $140 – $146 by the end of this year. Apply that same 15% – 20% increase to the Scottsdale area, starting at $156 for the 12-month moving average, you’re looking at $170 to $175 by year’s end.

I think it’s very reasonable to say that we’re going to be there by the end of 2013.

Let’s compare visually

This here, in this next slide/image is for the whole county and is just by way of an illustration. 2004 (the blue line) and 2012 (the purple line) looked a lot the same in terms of path upward. At the end of March, we were about to surpass the same place we were in 2004.

Attention. Attention. Here ye the Town Criers.

Every few weeks, it seems, we hear a lot in the news about how they’re breaking new ground and there is all these new developments. Each one of those dots in the chart represents a month. In the month of Jan, Feb 2007 we built 4,000 houses. Over the course of over 2006, we built something like 60,000 homes. It was insane. They were crappy, throw-‘em-up houses. And now the news loves to proclaim:

Look! We’re building again!

But the number is tiny. It’s about 250 – 300 homes.

This is important to Central Phoenix for a couple reasons: These new builds are out in the fringes of Phoenix, so you’re not adding to central Phoenix inventory. Also, they’d have to build a lot more of these homes on the fringes for it to have any impact on prices in central Phoenix.

I don’t want to list ‘cause it’s going to be worth so much more a year from now.

But what happens if everyone holds off from selling? People will stop looking and prices go up.

Urban Density: Take away

• Investors –If you want to invest in something, get your mind around the fact that you’re more likely to hold it than flip it and get a better price for it; because the margin’s not there or you’re not going to get cash flow because you paid so much for that thing to begin with and nobody’s going to pay that much rent.

• Sellers –Watch for possible price plateau during the summer. With these price increases, don’t just think I’m gonna hold a year to sell and get this higher price, that’s not necessarily so. Also, with these price increases, people who are thinking this, don’t be so certain, because either people stop buying, or people are prices out of the market, or a lot more people say, “Look the prices are there, go, go, go!” I don’t think you can be that confident for a year or even 9 months from now.

• Urban Cores – are in need of urban infill. Detached residential and condos are coming in the burbs, but we need more rooftops centrally.

• Prices – They’re not necessarily a result of heavy demand, because there’s no inventory coming up the way we thought it would.

Be ye Investor, Seller, Buyer, or Town Crier, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com. I’ll get it done.

[slide image: Trish_Gee88]

Are they just uninformed people? Those who declare “The Bubble is coming! The Bubble is coming!”? We know we’re not in a bubble, based on the first four parts of this series, but where do the voices of doom come from?

I’ll tell you something: earlier this year, before I sat down and took a good hard look at the facts and figures, before I started laying the foundation for my market analysis briefing (upon which this series is based), before I did all, I’ve got a tell you I was worried that we were getting into minor-bubble land.

But Get Your PHX/Cromford Report team mate Tina Tamboer talked me off that ledge.

People are seeing agents listing properties at irrationally high prices. This doesn’t necessarily mean we are in a bubble. What it means is: agents are listing properties at irrationally high prices just because their clients want them to go fishing for a higher price.

Their buyers are telling them, “I want you to list it here, at this amount.”
Their agents may tell them, “Uh, that’s a little high for the comps.”
And the seller says, “No. I want to list it here.”

Agents advise, but can ultimately only do what they’re told. If a client wants to list it high, you list it high. Other people see that pricing, then they try to list it high, etc.

Remember I said in the summer things slowdown in terms of sales?

I’ve indicated in green lines, below, the first and second quarters between 2001 and 2013. Right now, we’re just hanging out close to our long-term average.

Which means what, exactly?

This year, watch for prices to go up for the first two quarters [like they always do]. People will be listing furiously. You still are not going to see the number of listings you saw during the bubble. When you get into the summer, at the beginning of that third-quarter, and all the way through the third quarter, you’re not going to see a slump, but a plateau.  ~ Tina Tamboer, Get Your Phx/Cromford Report

People go on vacation and fewer people list. Glance back to all those sections with the green lines. Note that regardless of the severity or abundance of sales, Q1 and Q2 sales always increase, followed by a plateau. So here’s the take away: if you are thinking of listing, it is better to list it and sell in the first two quarters.

Right now, we’re just at the beginning of the second quarter. You still have just shy of three full months. If you put a property on right now, chances are – unless you’re priced way above market – you’re going to get your house sold in a matter of weeks. If it’s a nice, clean property in central Phoenix and most parts of town, you’re going to sell pretty quickly.

Once you get to the summer, you might see activity slowdown, and prices fall back a little bit.

Do you really want to risk that?

When you get into the end of the year, what happens? Look back up to the chart again at Q4 over the years. You’ll see that end of the year home selling is not as good as beginning of the year. Why? Because in October, November and December, people are beginning to think about holidays, which is why sales slowdown at the end of the year. The conclusion is the same: the best time of the year to sell your home is in the first two quarters.

The first quarter of 2013 ended a week ago. You’ve got less than one quarter left.
If you’re thinking of getting your home out there, talk to me.
We’ll get it out there.

Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com

[megaphone man: Shrieking Tree ]

After the bubble comes the recovery. In part 3 of my series on why we’re not in a bubble, you saw how non-distressed homes are taking on a greater role in the market. The final bit of proof that we’re not in a bubble goes like this…

The chart below is from part 1 of our analysis. Recall that the little spike in 2009 (green box in Market Index below) where we saw people taking advantage of the First Time Home-buyer Tax Credit.

And then the banks brought a few more things like foreclosures and short sales on the market, as we were struggling to get out of that. There was a little dip their between 2009 and 2010 in prices and a shot back up. We had a lot of inventory on the market. These are normal home sales people who were up against distressed inventory so they had to bring their prices down.

Distressed only

When we look at distressed-only prices in this next chart, we still have this jump.

 

On the far right of this chart, on top of the horizontal blue line, is where normal (non-distressed) sales prices are at $202, 382.

If you draw back into the past, you run into this green box on the left. Look at where the price lands and to see that it’s not the same. Actually, before that, that price landed in late 2004. It’s a different measure, because the last time we saw the price going up, it was the last quarter of 2006 (the right side of the green box on the left).

The last time we saw prices like our non-distressed number of $202,382 going up was at the end of 2005. The conditions were much different –buyers paid very little down payment, they had little skin in the game, sellers could choose their appraisers and lenders were going mad.

The last time we saw them going down was at the end of 2008. In terms of price increase, distressed home sales still have 45% to go in order to get up to $202,382. But that’s probably not going to happen. Back at the worst of it, distressed homes sales had 102% to go to reach normal.

We’ve come a long way in terms of prices coming up on those distressed homes, so yes, if you can into a distressed home, that’s great, but there are very few of them around.

And this, dear friends, is why were not in a bubble:

• Distressed homes are still pulling prices down.
• Inventory might be tight, but it’s not as tight as you thought it was (we talked about this in part one).
• Distressed property inventory is really tight, but the normal property inventory is growing at a regular pace.
• Normal property prices are still relatively low compared to what we saw before the bubble.
• If those $202,382 prices for normal homes were in the same landscape where we saw the same conditions that were happening pre-bubble (like in the last chart we reviewed in part 2 “Return of the Equity Seller”, with things like 100% financing and the like, I’d say yeah, we’re in a bubble, and we might be really worried.
• We’d be way, way above our long term trend line (part 2) if that was happening.

Where do the voices decrying “We’re in a bubble!” come from?

What does the answer have to do with the coming summer?

That’s next week!

If you want to sell or buy, please give me a call at (602) 456-9388 or email ken@getyourphx.com. I can get it done!

Last week, I promised to show you the real kicker. Here it is: Non distressed homes are taking on a greater role in the market. The distressed houses are going away.

What did the line look like for non-distressed homes? These are people who didn’t necessarily lose their home but their values went down. Watch what happens here, ‘cause this is the real kicker that reveals why it is we’re not in a bubble.

This chart is for Maricopa County, Median Home Sale Prices: NON-DISTRESSED SALES ONLY

The red arrow indicates the 18% pricing increase in the bubble. This was bubble-pricing at the beginning of the bubble. The large red circle that follows is what a real bubble looks like.

Now look at where we are now in this next chart. Look at the matching 16% increase at the far right of the chart, marked in blue.

We’re just matching the increase of Q4 2003-2004! Ask yourself:

What did it take to get us to where we were at the outset of the bubble? Recall those three big components from my part 2 analysis, last week. Are those at play here in the market again?

No.

We don’t have 100% financing.
We don’t have mortgage cash backs.
We don’t have schemes.

People have to have money. You have to 3.5% down, minimum for FHA. The conditions before are not the same now:

Mortgage lenders have to go to class and get licensed, just like agents now. Lenders didn’t have to do that before. You have to have some skin in the game nowadays, but you didn’t really have to have that back then. We’re not seeing those kinds of things. So for normal home prices, that dashed light blue line  in the chart above,  we’re right on the normal.

The normal home sellers and buyers are just kind of hanging out. When you look at what the prices are today

(~ $200,000 – per the number of the far right side of the above chart) and then look back into the past at the last time we were at that point, in the fourth quarter of 2004 (~ $193,950), you start to see what your equity is.

In the graph above, if you bought your home in the green box on the left, 2001 to late 2004, you had equity. If you bought it in the box on the right, late 2009 to now, you have equity. Now’s the time to sell.

Next week: Welcome to Recovery Mode (part 4)

To sell (or buy) please give me a call at (602) 456-9388 or email ken@getyourphx.com.

In Part 1 of my “Riding the Rollercoaster” post from last week, I hope I made it clear what a normal market looks like, why it’s  important to remember that the market is a function of supply and demand, and why price is a trailing factor running two months behind the market.

A person’s natural question when they learn these things is “Oh, is this another bubble?”

Now, we’re going to show you why we don’t think it’s a bubble.

We think we are  normalizing.

Don’t Burst My Bubble

Here’s evidence that we’re not in a bubble. Below is a graph of distressed sales in percentages for Maricopa County.

• The grey background is all the sales from the Multi Listing Sales Data.
• “Lender owned” is in red. See how from 2010 through 2012 it’s going down, down, down. This red line is a percentage of sales, relative to the orange and green lines. Add up each point on a different colored line and you get 100% of sales.
• “Short sale” is in orange. See how it’s been fluttering pretty steadily up and down since 2001 and then in Dec 2012, it drops, drops?
• “HUD” in blue has always been around 3% or so since 2001. Really consistent, regardless of recession activity.
• “Traditional Sale” is in green. Just a nice, even climb, upward.

So as two of these have been declining—Lender Owned, since 2010; Short Sales, since Mid-2012—and with HUD Sales always at regular levels, only Traditional Sales are going up.

On average, over the long term were getting back to the point where a certain percentage is always going to be foreclosures. Before this pre-recession bubble, nobody knew what a short sale was. Agents didn’t know what to do with them; they didn’t even know how to process them. The vast majority of agents never had to deal with them before.

Appreciation by Transaction Type

This next chart shows the monthly average sales price per square foot. At the far left of the blue line is December 2009 when we were at $123.70 per square foot. So even though we have more properties coming on the market, which we know from the previous chart and its evidence of increasing Traditional Sales,

It’s not like you’re seeing this radical push up in price, says Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter (Get Your PHX Team/Cromford Report)

What Tina means by this is that you have more things on the market that are normal. If this were a bubble you’d look at all the properties and you’d see them all go up in price. Here, you’re seeing more come on the market, but they’re still not up in price. They’re at the same price per square foot.

Maricopa County Median Home Sales Prices

The faint blue dashed line is the long-term trend line. Back in January 2001, at the far left, the median home sales price for Maricopa County was $139,500. The dashed long-term trend line continues upward to the right. If we had a forever normal market, you’ll always see this nice long slide upward. At my last market analysis gathering on March 21, Tina showed us what happened in the bubble and why.

Look at the spike up on the left of the Matterhorn shape. Why did it go up like this? You had 100% financing, people were getting cash back from their mortgages, and you have all these schemes.

And then there was that one day when somebody couldn’t sell their house for more than they thought they would. And then their neighbor, who had all this extra money taken out of their house, suddenly found that their house wasn’t worth anything, and then there was Wall Street, which didn’t help, and then it all started to tumble apart.

So now track your eyes at the tipping point of that mountain to the right, where in 2007 you had foreclosures, people couldn’t sell houses, nobody could get financing to buy up the houses that were sitting there, and you had unemployment. So that’s when we hit that lowest, lowest point in January 2009. The lift in the line between the bottom of January 2009 and that first little peak is when people were trying to get that first time home buyer’s tax credit. Then it dropped again. That’s the best effect we could do with that tax credit.

Then the lowest median sales price that we had was $123,150 in March 2011. Right now, April 2013, we’re at $180,000. You can see that on the far right of the graph. See how we’ve had a 23% increase in the median home sale prices since March 2011?

The Skinny.

If we were in pace with that long-term dashed trend line of a normally rising market, we’d be at the $200,000 mark. But because we’re at the $180,000 mark, this means that we still have some time here. The point is that we’re still $20,000 under a normal median sales price.

We’re not at a bubble yet.

But the real kicker is this:  …and I’m going to show you that very thing next week.

In the meantime, if you want to sell or buy, please give me a call  (602) 456-9388 or find me at ken@getyourphx.com

The market price is a function of supply and demand.
~ Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter, Cromford Report

“oh, oh! It’s going up! It’s going up!”

”Oh, no! Now it’s going down, it’s going down!”

It sounds simple, but people get sucked up in the passions of the moment. They forget that price is a function of supply and demand.

100 is the magic line on the Cromford Supply Index.  As you can see from the graph, below, we are below the horizontal supply line of 100. It’s gone down, down, down, so today, in 2013, we are right about where we were in 2004. 

On the Cromford Demand side, we are higher than on normal demand—people have been talking about the high demand, but look, the demand was much higher in 2009.

Tina’s point is not that the demand is super high and therefore that’s what’s making this happen.  It’s that the supply is super low. So, yes, the demand is above average, but it’s not at 150!

Like Transformers.

The Supply Index and The Demand Index transform to show us when there is a seller’s market or a buyer’s market.

In Tina’s presentation at the Get Your PHX March 26 Market Briefing, she showed how the market index was at 300 market index before the recession, which is when many people bought their homes. See how the market index comes up a little bit in 2009?

This is where it becomes a seller’s market for just a short amount of time because people needed to use that first time home buyer’s tax credit. Then that went away and it dropped. Now we’ve been climbing up, steadily.

One of the most common questions Realtors hear is ‘When is the best time to sell my property?’  Often a seller wants to sell at the peak of price, when they can get the most for their investment.  However, their answer should be to sell during a seller’s market, when there’s more demand than supply.  Price is a trailing indicator, meaning that it’s in response to leading indicators such as supply and demand.  By the time our market peaks in price, and the media reports on it months later, the seller on the fence is too late to the party.

The Cromford Market Index is a tool that combines supply and demand data for the Phoenix Metro area to give clients a bird’s eye view of whether we’re in a seller’s or buyer’s market.  From this chart we can see that the peak of the seller’s market was Spring of 2005, after that the index took a dive and seller’s only had 7 months of advantage before reaching balance.  Prices, however, continued to rise until peaking from 2006-2007 when buyer’s took solid control of the market.

Today we find ourselves in a seller’s market once again and consumers are wondering if it’s a good time to sell.  Currently the answer is yes, but if supply increases or demand decreases you don’t want to get stuck on the fence.

~ Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter, Get Your PHX Team/Cromford Report

What’s a normal market?

Most people do not know what a normal market looks like.

For the last 10 years, we’ve been in either a severe up-swing, or crash, or coming out of it. In a more normal market, though, you’re going to fluctuate back and forth on this range among either side of this 100 line of the seller’s market/buyer’s market index line. So what’s happening is you get people reacting more extremely than they would in a normal market. Have a look again at those green circles again, below.

Low and behold, here we are, today, right back where we were in 2004.

If you bought in 2004, you’re probably in a good place to sell it. If you bought in 2009, 2010, 2011, you’re probably also in a good place to sell it. This is important to emphasize.  You’re starting to see people put things on the market, which is good, because it’s a seller’s market.

When you factor in what we’re seeing in terms of distressed and non-distressed single family inventory, foreclosures, and short-sales, and then look at it all in context, you’ll understand why equity seller is returning. That’s next week.

If you want to sell (or buy), please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

[rollercoaster pic: Upsilon Andromedae]