“Whipeeeeeeee!”

              or

“Whoaaaaaaaa!”

Every square in this rainbow slide (not the one on the left, though that does look like fun. I mean every square in the image below) represents a month—January, February, March—all going up.

This covers central phoenix and downtown zip codes, historic and older neighborhoods. One vertical stack of those boxes adds up to one year. See how we’ve dropped quite precipitously:  from 7,500 (in 2010) to 5,800 (March, 2013). In 2008 to 2010 a lot of those were short sales and foreclosures. You can shrink inventory, but the demand is still there and what happens? The price goes up.

Same three-month moving average

In this next slide is the average of all three months going back in time. In this way you keep from getting a bunch of blips that aren’t really accurate. See in those downtown zip codes how we’ve gone from $117 in September 2012 to now at $144 per square foot. Let’s look at year to year. March 2012: $105 to $144. That’s a big jump. Now the three month moving average is going to be more extreme than 12-months, because we’re averaging prices today and 12 months ago. The line is smoother and more conservative.

See from March 2012 it went from $96 to $149 per square foot. This $123 represents the average price for this day and the three months before. So you’re seeing that upward trend. Now, in downtown Scottsdale, we’re starting at higher prices.

Follow me on this:

In March 2004—in the recent comparisons slide, below—the monthly average price per square foot was $115. By the end of 2004 it was $131, a 16% increase. In March 2013, it was at $114, with very similar conditions. We started in January 2013 at $108.

Do we think the price can get to a similar 16% increase point by the end of 2013? This increase from $108 to $114/$116 is a very similar line. So for 2013, yes, I think we’re anywhere in a 16% – 20% price increase, just like 2004. I think we could very easily see average prices by the end of this year, somewhere between $125 and $130.

Now let’s take that same 15% – 20% increase—seen here in this next slide of this more-conservative 12-month moving average price per square foot—and apply it county wide to only Phoenix and Scottsdale, keeping in mind the trend-line I talked about in this post.

Phoenix was on a 12-month moving average in March of this year, sitting at $129 price per square foot (for those same zip codes). If you apply that same 15% – 20% increase, you’re looking at $140 – $146 by the end of this year. Apply that same 15% – 20% increase to the Scottsdale area, starting at $156 for the 12-month moving average, you’re looking at $170 to $175 by year’s end.

I think it’s very reasonable to say that we’re going to be there by the end of 2013.

Let’s compare visually

This here, in this next slide/image is for the whole county and is just by way of an illustration. 2004 (the blue line) and 2012 (the purple line) looked a lot the same in terms of path upward. At the end of March, we were about to surpass the same place we were in 2004.

Attention. Attention. Here ye the Town Criers.

Every few weeks, it seems, we hear a lot in the news about how they’re breaking new ground and there is all these new developments. Each one of those dots in the chart represents a month. In the month of Jan, Feb 2007 we built 4,000 houses. Over the course of over 2006, we built something like 60,000 homes. It was insane. They were crappy, throw-‘em-up houses. And now the news loves to proclaim:

Look! We’re building again!

But the number is tiny. It’s about 250 – 300 homes.

This is important to Central Phoenix for a couple reasons: These new builds are out in the fringes of Phoenix, so you’re not adding to central Phoenix inventory. Also, they’d have to build a lot more of these homes on the fringes for it to have any impact on prices in central Phoenix.

I don’t want to list ‘cause it’s going to be worth so much more a year from now.

But what happens if everyone holds off from selling? People will stop looking and prices go up.

Urban Density: Take away

• Investors –If you want to invest in something, get your mind around the fact that you’re more likely to hold it than flip it and get a better price for it; because the margin’s not there or you’re not going to get cash flow because you paid so much for that thing to begin with and nobody’s going to pay that much rent.

• Sellers –Watch for possible price plateau during the summer. With these price increases, don’t just think I’m gonna hold a year to sell and get this higher price, that’s not necessarily so. Also, with these price increases, people who are thinking this, don’t be so certain, because either people stop buying, or people are prices out of the market, or a lot more people say, “Look the prices are there, go, go, go!” I don’t think you can be that confident for a year or even 9 months from now.

• Urban Cores – are in need of urban infill. Detached residential and condos are coming in the burbs, but we need more rooftops centrally.

• Prices – They’re not necessarily a result of heavy demand, because there’s no inventory coming up the way we thought it would.

Be ye Investor, Seller, Buyer, or Town Crier, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com. I’ll get it done.

[slide image: Trish_Gee88]

The portion of the inventory that is considered distressed is still much smaller than it has been for years, and will continue to be that way.

If you look at the number of listings in the inventory, above, you will see that we had an increase in “normal” listings at the end of last year. That is because people who bought during the really low points or before about 2003 are putting their houses on the market. You see that January inventory is down a little bit.  I’m guessing this is because people think prices will go up, so they are holding off listing. But that’s tough to say –and it is a bit of a gamble for those folks who think they should wait.

Here’s why: while most folks think interest rates will stay where they are this year, I’m also hearing loan officers reporting that rates are starting to go up. You don’t want to try to sell a house while the interest rates are higher. It erases all of the price increase you were waiting for!

Still, you can see in this chart that the prices continue to go up, generally.

This is why you will see fewer investors in the market. First, their ability to get a super cheap house which they can flip up is going away in most areas. Second, it is more difficult to turn that house in to a rental and get cash flow when you bought it at a higher price.

I expect to see more “normal” buyers in the market, as those people who lost their credit scores recover and decide to pick up a new home.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

We were not certain that The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 was going to survive into 2013, regardless of the much ballyhooed fiscal cliff. The Debt Relief Act simply says that you will not pay taxes on the amount of debt you are forgiven if you short sell or foreclose on a home. 

The 11th hour congressional extension means homeowners will not have to pay taxes on forgiven mortgage debt from short sales or loan modifications until 2014. The Relief Act was set to expire December 31, 2012.

Without the tax break, a homeowners forgiven debt could be considered taxable income.

“Housing advocates and lawmakers [were] worried that the exemption [would] disappear just as thousands of homeowners [were] receiving large amounts of mortgage debt relief from the nation’s five largest banks as part of a national settlement of foreclosure abuse investigations.” ~ Jim Puzzanghera, Chicago Tribune

The five big banks the reporter for the Tribune is referring to are Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Ally Financial Inc. As of September 20 last year, the article goes on to say, “Nearly 140,000 homeowners received some type of relief under the settlement, averaging about $76,615 each.”

As we are all well aware, homes today are worth much less than what they were purchased for in the housing bubble. By reducing the value of a troubled mortgage to the current value of a house, banks are frequently able to save themselves money. If the tax break had not been extended, any mortgage debts a bank forgave would then be counted as taxable income. In other words, if a $350,000 mortgage were reduced by the bank to a then current value of $250,000, the happy homeowner would suddenly become the proud owner of a $100,000 income tax bill.

“As a result, a homeowner struggling to pay the bills would be faced with tens of thousands of dollars in taxes. That would destroy any hope of establishing future mortgage debt relief for troubled homeowners, as any bank leniency would result in heavy tax trauma for borrowers.” ~ Zach Carter, The Huggington Post

According to CNN/Money, over 50,000 families lose their homes to foreclosure every month.

A sigh of relief is in order. Whew.

Here is the important take-away: Take advantage of this fiscal-cliff debt relief tax extension…now…while the next 12 months are still in play. Give me a call or drop me an email. I will absolutely sell your home, even if it is short sale.

Choosing an agent is a very personal decision. 

Let’s grab a cup-o-coffee, I’ll explain the Get Your PHX Method and you can see if I’m the right agent for you. Try before you buy!