Special thanks to Stefano Fabbri of ‘Pomo Pizzeria Napoletano for hosting the July Get Your PHX. I think Stefano and master chef/co-owner Mateo have made a huge Italian splash in downtown.

I’m excited to announce what many of you have been waiting for and probably already know —Brad and Kat Moore of Short Leash food truck have now also opened Sit…Stay, the restaurant. Whom in Phoenix hasn’t had a Short Leash hot dog? Maybe you’ve had an Igby Dog at the Willo Home Tour. Maybe you’ve had the Moki at Food Truck Fridays. Maybe, if you were really lucky, you had a Costanza Dog, which appears only once a year at Phoestivus.

So, if they are so ubiquitous, why do we need to do a Get Your PHX there? Well, we are for several reasons. First, Brad and Kat have been huge supporters of local businesses (check out the list on their website of locally-owned vendors that they buy from) and we want to thank them.

Second, they will share their story and answer questions  –how often do you get a chance to interrogate a successful local start-up like this?

Third, Brad and Kat are just great people and we at Get Your PHX believe that our city develops better when the local business owners get a chance to come out from behind the counter and build more relationships with we mere mortals.

Finally, they are going to give out samples!

For those of you who don’t know, Short Leash took to the streets three years ago when Brad and Kat, both tired of the work they had been doing previously. It was a running joke for years between Brad and Kat that they should start a restaurant. Brad had experience in Small Business Administration lending in the financial industry and Kat was known to be a great cook.

One day Brad made a serious proposal to open a restaurant and Kat scaled back his proposal to the more realistic food truck concept. We are happy they did it this way. We’ve seen so many restaurants fail, in part, because they tried to grow too quickly.

Brad and Kat will share a number of lessons they learned as they started and grew their business. I found something that Brad said particularly salient (as it is similarly true in real estate): “Many people get in to business and think they will park food truck on corner and a million people will come. You really have to get out and build those relationships and take a grass-roots philosophy.”

So, if you are thinking that you want to start a business in Phoenix, this is your opportunity to hear directly from an inspiring couple –while you eat some of their delicious food.

Don’t forget, of course, we will host the monthly Get Your PHX raffle. We already have one free night at the Clarendon Hotel on the list of raffle items you can win. If you own a business and you want to support our local business community by donating a prize to the raffle, please contact Ken at 602-456-9388.

Stay tuned on Facebook for more raffle items and updates.

You have an established business in Phoenix and you need architectural services for a new building or rehab structure, but you can’t afford it.

What do you do?

If you’re aware that the architectural firm C&H Associates—informally known as Abraham James, Patrick Hallman and Weldon Alexander—just won (for the second year in a row, mind you) the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the City of Phoenix (in conjunction with HUD), you just might qualify within the City of Phoenix, as one of a few firms to get their architectural services they need for free.

The last time C&H Associates were awarded the CDBG was in 2011, and they were able to help Jobot Coffee, the Firehouse Gallery, and the Canvas site (Pallet restaurant and the former Scratch restaurant) on Roosevelt Row.  They also worked on an auto body shop and an electrician’s office.

When Patrick, Walden, and Abraham were originally presented with the RFP and the opportunity to work with low to moderate-income clients within the city of phoenix, they knew it was perfect for them since they were basically already doing what was required to apply for the grant.

Wow, this is what we do. We have done this before, who better to do this than us. This is our clientele. ~ Abraham James

Despite eight other firms pursuing the CDBG Grant in 2011, C&H Associates were selected by the City of Phoenix as the only architectural firm in the program. Here we are in 2013, and the architects with a passion for bringing LEED certified architectural help to those who could not otherwise afford it—and a passion for urban farming, to boot—have again been selected by the City with the honor of passing on the rewards of the CDBG Grant to a few qualifying businesses.

This year, the guys expect to help [insert the number of] businesses with the funds they’ve been provided by the grant.

We are currently in discussions with a beauty salon, a bakery, a food preparation kitchen, and doctors office about their qualifications for CDBG funding and the potential of their projects. There are so many considerations which go into a project before starting. We are looking at every material from the ground up [with the objective] in mind to have beauty, energy savings and affordability. We like to believe that by outlining a framework of those components, we are even helping those who ultimately decide to not move forward with an actual project. ~ Patrick Hallman

The CDBG program is ideal for the kind of business that is moving forward but struggling with the 5% – 10% architectural fees of their project. By example only, a $200,000 project may have architectural fees in the $10,000 to $20,000 range.

How can you take advantage of the CDBG Grant and put these community-driven architects to work for you?

• Understand:  The program is not for non-profits or churches, but small businesses.
• Now contact C&H Associates (602) 265-0660 or Abraham James (abrahamj (at) cox (dot) net)
• Give them your zip code and they’ll see if you’re in a qualified ‘HUD Red Zone’.
• Understand:  There are opportunities if you’re not in a red zone, but you must prove you’ve hired people. The program is flexible and is sincerely looking for people who really need the help.
• C&H Associates will give you a CDBG application.
• Fill it out and they’ll submit it to the City of Phoenix Neighborhood Service department.
• If approved, C&H will develop your proposal for other consultants who will be involved in your project.
• Understand:  This program provides the architectural services only. Other services, such as engineering and construction must be paid by the client.
• Once a client’s approved, C&H reviews a host of design services to help assess needs and give you a clear vision of what those needs are. This includes an understanding of what you can afford and options to lower your energy bills.

If you want to buy or sell a home, instead, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

The summer is turning out to be a good time to buy. Unlike the late spring, sellers are a little more realistic about prices. However, we expect activity to pick up in September, as people come back from vacation and begin listing their homes in larger numbers.

I’m going to shamelessly lift some comments now from Mike Orr of the Cromford Report about Listing Success Rates, because its a good way to think about what is selling out there right now:

“One of the statistics listing agents like use to set seller expectations is the Days on Market for sold listings.  They use it as a guide to show a homeowner how long they should expect to wait for their property to sell.  The downfall of this measurement is that a property could come on the market at the beginning of a seasonal slowdown (like July or August) and all of the sold DOMs would be recorded during the busy Spring and early Summer months.  Obviously during those months the DOM may be shorter due to the heightened buyer activity that occurs every year at that time, so DOM is not necessarily a good indicator for future marketing times in this instance.  Conversely, if a property is being listed in January, all of the DOM measurements would be for the slow Fall and Winter.  So therefore, not a good indicator for future marketing times during the busy Spring season. 

An alternative measurement to consider is the Listing Success Rate.    This measures the number of properties that sell during the month vs. cancel or expire.  It can be measured by city, price range, dwelling type and transaction type.  The chart below tells us that in the month of July, of all the properties that came off of Active status 79% closed escrow while 21% cancelled or expired.  This is a high success rate, in a normal market it falls between 60%-70%.  It is also a significant improvement from May of 2011 where 36% of all properties that came off the market cancelled or expired vs. selling.”

In short, if you are listing over the summer, expect to be on the market longer, but know that your success rate is still, in historic terms, probably going to be relatively high. See below

If you are starting to look or list, call me at 602-456-9388 if you want more insight and information.

In order to gauge a correct ‘supply and demand’ temperature for today’s Phoenix, it’s important to understand how far we’ve come.  (If you missed last week’s post, be sure to read part 1 of this series to catch up on the new definition of ‘supply and demand’).

Our market is a lot more complicated that it was in 2004/2005. Today, you do need a job to get a loan. It’s far more important than it was in 2005 when loans were as easy to get as raising your hand in class.

The nation’s unemployment rate had soared to over 10%. Maricopa County’s employment rate this past January? 7.1%. It then went down to 6.5%, then 6.6% and now we’re at 6.5%. Tucson is just a touch behind us at 6.7% unemployment.

Our biggest areas of growth are leisure and hospitality.

Because most of our losses were in leisure and hospitality, this is a good thing. A lot of the losses were in the construction and tourism industry when we went through our unemployment. Those industries are now in the top three and haven’t been since 2011.  ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

Education and health services were one of our top growths in 2011 and 2012. So now construction is starting to pick up, as is professional business services.

We’re one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation for bioscience (“Arizona bioscience sector adding jobs at four times the national rate“) and high technology. The average income in these sectors is $85,000 a year, an increase of 15% since 2011. As you see we have a lot of good things happening here.

We’ve had 30 companies either relocate or significantly expand their business out here – and 10 within just the last year; big ones like State Farm, Union Bank. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report.

These things we’re talking about are a big part of the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County. It’s the why we know that home prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. How is this happening? What winds shifted (or are shifting) that is drawing businesses to expand or migrate here? How do we account for those 30 companies migrating here in the first place? And because they are coming here, why do we still have such a shortage of properties?

That’s right. Next week!

To buy or sell with the our city’s macro view in mind, please call or email me at 602-456-9388 or ken@getyourphx.com

[‘now and then’ photo by Melody Ayres-Griffiths]

The average website visitor reads from a screen at 180 words/minute. I’ve already used 15, so I better get to the point of the matter. Which is this:

The only thing that really affects our supply and demand of homes in Maricopa County is people going out of, and people coming in to, our County. ~ Tina Timboer, The Cromford Report

That’s right, folks. Migration.

There used to be other things that affected supply and demand (and we’ll get to those in part 2 of this market analysis) but not any more. Some of you are looking to buy. Some are looking to sell. After you hear what I have to share with you, you may want to rethink your plans. Or, you may find your plans are confirmed by what you learn.

Some of you may want evidence that what I’m about to tell you is certifiable and trustworthy. I’ll tell you. It’s because it comes from The Cromford Report. For those who’ve not been following my blog posts for long, you don’t know how much I admire this report. If The Cromford Report were touring like The Grateful Dead or Phish, I’d follow them around. If Ben & Jerry’s were looking for a new flavor, I’d suggest they call it ‘Cromford’. Don’t just take my word for it. Listen to what Tina Timboer, the absolute Guru of all things Cromford, has to say:

Prices will continue to go up in Maricopa County for the foreseeable future.

How do we know this? Because Michael Orr, the founder of The Cromford Report is an Oxford educated mathematician. Because he is the Director for the Real Estate Theory and Practice of ASU. Because he personally cleans up all the public record data for ASU’s Real Estate department. Because The Cromford Report does not buy/sell property, but is solely an analytical firm. Michael Orr puts together all the data at The Cromford Report. Nobody knows the real estate market better than Orr.

Let’s get back to supply and demand. You’ve been hearing a lot about interest rates and you want to know what the long-term trend will be? How will interest rates affect buying/selling homes? Next week, I’ll share what Tina had to say about the macro view on the issue of supply and demand here in Maricopa County and how we know that prices will continue to go up in the foreseeable future. Yes, because Michael Orr said so, but more importantly, it’s why he says so.

Trust me, you’ll nod your head and think, “That makes perfect sense. I should look at the macro view more frequently before I hear the news tell me the Case–Shiller Home Price Index says homes are selling for X amount nationwide. Which is just like saying the average temperature in the country is 76 degrees, but golly it’s 110 degrees in Phoenix!”

Exactly. Come back next week to hear what the supply and demand “temperature” really is in Phoenix and why.

To buy or sell, informed and with confidence, give me a call or email me at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com

  [migration photo:  Billtacular]  

Get out of the summer heat. Join monOrchid gallery for their first ever annual Family Day!

Saturday
July 27
10 a.m. – 2 p.m.

Children of all ages invited!

This is an opportunity to celebrate the greatest gifts in our lives–our families– and the culture and community that sustain them. Fun and wonderful activities for all ages and cultural underpinnings that “elevate” to boot.  People in the know will bring their swimsuits too – there are persistent rumors of a kiddie pool in Dorina’s office 🙂  Show your love for your super extended Phoenix family and participate in making our city stronger. As the yogi says, “be here now.” ~ Wayne Rainey, owner of Monorchid

• Docent-lead tours of the exhibit.
• Live painting by local artist Jayme Blue from the Thermal PHX exhibit.
• Limited edition Thermal PHX Color sheet and drawing tables for children to create in the gallery.
• Hip Veggies will be creating awesome veggie art and debuting their new screen-printed canvas tote by artist Rafael Navarro.
• Yoga in the grass at “The Lot” (all ages, bring your mat): 10am to 11am.
• “Tales of a Tombstone, Arizona Tortoise” reading by authors Heather and Tad Smith.
• Performance by local musicians Andrew Waterhouse and Steven Totten (of Tres Lunas).
• Local treats from great Phoenix restaurants Carly’s Bistro and Pallets Food & Bar along, delicious cookies from Urban Cookies Bakeshop and Brilliant Sky Bakery.

The exhibition is meant to be a “thermal” for emerging local artists, helping them elevate their work by providing an exhibition opportunity in a major art space during our long, hot Phoenix summer. This wonderful exhibition offers a variety of art that will appeal to everyone. We hope you will join us for this very special event!

This time last year the summer sky was overcast and the rain was on it’s way. This last week, we got over 117 degrees and there’s a 10% chance of rain, but I don’t know that I believe it will actually happen. A year ago this week, short sales were all the rage and the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act allowed you to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven–but that ran out at the end of 2012.

Speaking about the end of the year, we’re in the second quarter now and that Q4 time from October through December will be here before you can say “Jimmy Crack Corn”. As the old-time realtors say, “Them be the slow months. Might as well kick up your heels and sit for a bit”.

But as I find myself thinking about the end of the year, I can tell you in my experience that last Halloween through New Year’s was all work for me in the real estate business. People were buying and selling through me last Q4 like there was no change of the season.

What “they” say is supposed to happen is that people stop buying or selling houses because the holidays just creep up on them and they get distracted. They say the market slows down after the summer and maybe you can negotiate a better deal during the holidays or Christmas. That has definitely not been the case for me in the last three years.

Look at previous years in the chart below. You’ll see this is generally true; especially around Thanksgiving. In the first chart, you’ll see the last nine years. Some of them drop off drastically, but come back around February.

In the second chart you will see 2004 and 2005 compared to 2010 and 2011. In ’10 and ’11 there was a little drop around November, but then we just picked right up again.

In other words:

ONE: Don’t assume the end of the year is going to be slow. Selling or buying? Take advantage of the active market during the summer months.

TWO: It’s been hectic the last two years. We have every reason to believe it’s going to be hectic this year, too.

THREE: If you want to buy or sell, Summer, Q3 or Q4 or beyond, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

I’ve been seeing properties dropping in price because sellers listed too high recently, watching an upward-trending market. But, watch for prices to level in CenPho over the summer, followed by a push upward again in September. To be clear: this is not a price drop, it is a plateau. So, you won’t be able to offer 20% less to a seller and be taken seriously.

The graph, below shows how those prices have started to plateau a little, going in to the summer.

In the next four months, watch for fewer properties to come on the market and for it to take longer to find the right house. But don’t give up!

If you are starting to look, call me at 602-456-9388 if you want more insight and information.

Special thanks to Aaron Chamberlin and Amy del Real of the Public Market Cafe. The staff at the Café showered us with five courses of the most wonderful, locally-sourced items from their menu, ending with a rosemary and caramel brownie that was the talk of the evening. Aaron shared with us his philosophy of sourcing locally and supporting local farmers and answered all of our questions. We are looking forward to seeing the Public Market thrive as a central meeting place and destination.

For July, I’m thrilled to tell you about ‘Pomo Pizzeria Napoletano (and, no, we are not talking about our former governor). Napoletano pizza is a very specific style of pizza that ‘Pomo part owner and Master Chef Mateo Schiavone, has practiced making for over 30 years.

Wait, I’m getting ahead of myself. Let me start with salad. Yes, salad.

I dropped by ‘Pomo on a day that they were closed (a Monday) to speak with co-owner Stefano Fabbri. He had just finished putting together a salad with shrimp and a light dressing for himself and his employee — a variation of one of his menu items. He insisted that I join them and we shared a cool, refreshing salad while we spoke. Half way through, he sent his employee off to get the vegetable lasagna, which he had put in the oven some minutes before. That was brought out with cold drinks and we each pulled a portion of it off the plate for ourselves.

I still can’t put my finger on it. There was something about the way that we ate together from one shared plate. Or, maybe something in the very air of that restaurant took me right out of Phoenix and in to a neighborhood restaurant on the Adriatic.

Stefano has a lyric Italian accent and urgent manner that certainly helped transport me across the Atlantic. I found myself using my hands a little more than usual as I spoke. He told me his story, which I will not tell you now. You will have to come to the next Get Your PHX to hear it directly from him. I can tell you that it involves love, immigration and a strong belief that Phoenix is a better place to live than Seattle.

You heard it here first.

But, there’s more. ‘Pomo is the first and only APN (Associazione Pizzaiuoli Napoletani) and VPN (Verace Pizza Napoletana) certified restaurant in Arizona. They have to go to great lengths to get that designation. They use ingredients that are internationally recognized as Traditional Speciality Guaranteed (TSG). The best known example of this designation is that Champagne only comes from the Champagne region; all others are just sparkling wine. In his case, that applies to his cheeses, his flour, his yeast and a whole list of other ingredients.

Come to July’s Get Your PHX and experience what I felt when I dropped by for a private lunch. You will hear about Stefano’s origins in Rimini Italy, learn about Mateo’s culinary education and try the free samples of what ‘Pomo has to offer. Stefano is also offering drink specials just for our group.

Don’t forget, of course, the monthly Get Your PHX raffle. We already have one free night at the Clarendon Hotel on the list of raffle items you can win. Stay tuned on Facebook for more raffle items and updates.

On June 30th of this month, this coming Sunday, the sun will raise the temp over 115. (At precisely 2:47pm, on June 26, yesterday, in 1990, the temperature hit 122 degrees. That record is unbroken. We hope this weekend it will remain that way.) And yes, anything over 110 is plenty hot enough, but their are two golden reasons you should get exited about this coming Sunday:  “Indie Week” starts!

Here be ye Golden Coupon.

It’s the ticket to saving 20% off purchases from 282 local Arizona businesses being honored and recognize by Local First Arizona. This list of participating businesses will be continually added to through the month of June. Simply print the Golden Coupon from the LFA website or pull it up on your smartphone and use it at as many participating locations as you like (some restrictions may apply).

 Local businesses are the backbone of this country and we have a lot to thank them for.”  ~ Local First AZ news page

The official name is “National Independents Week”, but if you’re cool and hip “Indie Week” is the bee’s knees. (I may have lost some cool points on that last bit).

What better time to thank independent local businesses who are responsible for local job creation and so much community involvement?

Independents Week is especially important in Arizona during the slow summer months for many of our local business owners,” says Kimber Lanning, Director of Local First Arizona.

Our hope is that consumers will learn about the value of supporting local businesses during Indie Week, and then continue to support our independent businesses far beyond our week-long celebration.”

Step up and take the pledge to support Indie Week. Everyone who takes the pledge will automatically be entered into a contest to win a staycation: the package includes a one night stay at Globe’s Noftsger Hill Inn Bed and Breakfast and a meal at Safford’s A Step Back in Time Coffee & Deli.

When:   Sunday, June 30 through Sunday, July 7

Where:  All over Arizona in 282 independent businesses.

I chose to work with HomeSmart because it is locally-owned. I left my previous brokerage because it was bought out by an out-of-state company. I put my money where my mouth is and I will do that with the purchase or sale of your home. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.