I was driving down the road yesterday, minding my own business, when another ad for Zillow came on the radio.

They claimed that their service helps you compare prices, find rentals and maybe even train your cat to dance the polka. I might be wrong on that last point, but it sounded like he was saying that.

But, it brought me all back to the various reasons why Zillow is not necessarily your friend when it comes to buying or selling a home.

Here, here, here and here are four posts that I’ve done since 2011 which give you good details on what is wrong with this and other services like them. After hearing these ads, I feel obliged to educate the world.

1) Zillow and other services make money by selling ad space to realtors, to show up just at that moment you are looking at a nice home on their website. The agents who purchase your data may not be specialists in your area or the type of home you want. This is particularly important in historic areas.

2) The data that these services use comes from the data that we agents update every day, but these services don’t get all of that data. We reserve the most important (and most private) for our professional industry and for our clients. So, you may log on to these services, give them your data to use, but you won’t necessarily get the most up-to-date information.

3) There is a time delay from when we agents update listings (active, pending, closed) and when the services see the change. So, if you need to react quickly to the market, you may not be able to.

4) The data also impacts the estimates that you get from these sites. These services don’t get the most accurate data, so they have to construct some other estimate using older information, extrapolations and duct tape. They often give you an inaccurate picture of your home value, or the home you are looking at. This is especially true with historic homes.

If you want accurate statistical market analysis, specialty in the market and personalized representation, just call and agent so that you can use his or her MLS portal.

I can help you, so call me at 602-456-9388.

Join Get Your PHX this month as we check out an atypical bike shop that’s turning heads in downtown Phoenix: The Velo Bike Shop & Café.

 Everyday, Phoenix’s core is transforming into a more walkable and rider-friendly city. Sidewalks are widening, trees are being planted and neon green bike lanes are popping up all around. The only thing missing was a community bike shop… until now.

On the corner of Garfield and Second Streets sits a gray building surrounded by a wave of metal poles and a metal cyclist statue in the center. If it were not for the hoard of bikes parked out front, you might mistake it for an art gallery – an intentional move by owner Jason Boles who adds, “At the end of the day we’re near Roosevelt Row and we knew art had to be part of the experience.”

Let’s get one thing straight this is not your average bike shop. It’s a gathering space for bicycle enthusiasts, students, downtowners, and really anyone looking for a place to relax and connect with the community. Where you can service your bike, grab a cup of coffee or just hang out with friends.

“Cycling should be a social based event, so a quality cycling store or retail location should also be a hub for the community,” Boles said.

Stepping inside, you’ll be amazed by the incredible revamp Jason made with the space. The shop features sustainably sourced wood counter tops and sleek light fixtures overhead.

Among the array of bicycles and skateboards neatly snaking around the shop, you can expect to find local bike brand State Bicycle Co., which is headquartered in Tempe. Keeping as much local and sustainable was an important part of Jason’s mission.

The expansive space is also home to an espresso bar café with a couple pocket-seating areas. Local beans from Flagstaff fill each cup, and local craft beer fills the fridge. That’s right folks, The Velo is among the few bike shops here in the state licensed to sell beer and bicycles at the same time!

Anyone looking for a group of gung-ho cyclists wanting to “get out of the office” and head down to South Mountain? The Velo has become a hub for such adventures where cyclists of all levels are invited to take part. Check out their Facebook for upcoming bike events.

Walk, ride or drive down to this month’s Get Your PHX local pick: The Velo Bike Shop & Café. Thank you to our host/bike shop owner, Jason Boles, for supplying the wine and music all night long!

As always, RSVP below.

When: Thursday, June 18^th, 5:30P – 7:30P
Where: The Velo Bike Shop and Café: 828 N. 2^nd St., Phoenix, 85004
Details: Wine will be pouring all night by our great hosts and entry includes a complimentary raffle ticket

RSVP HERE please so we can get an accurate head count.

Our friends at the Cromford Report are predicting a slight decrease in prices across the valley in June, over May.

But, first, we saw impressive price increases since March.

“For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $136.34 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 2.2% above the $133.42 we now measure for April 15 and represents the second month in a row with a significant increase in average pricing.”

Cromford folks are predicting a small correction for June. This makes intuitive sense to me, as the market slows a little bit going in to the summer months. Of course, that is anecdotal.

“Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $134.54, which is 1.3% lower than the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.85 to $137.23. Our forecast this month is therefore for a small correction after strong moves higher in sales pricing over the last two months.”

The interesting thing to think about for me will be whether we maintain this tight market of homes through the summer in the CenPho and historic neighborhoods.

Normally, I would assume that there will be downward pressure on prices in the summer, as there are often fewer buyers around. However, Michelle and I have been working hard with our clients to find the right properties, given the tight supply. So, that might carry over as some folks are still looking for the right house.

Also in the CenPho area, I expect some folks to list their homes, having seen how prices have gone up.

And, of course, don’t forget that many people want to get their house closed before the interest rates go up later this year.

What do you think will happen?

If you need help navigating this market, let me know at 602-456-9388.

The old days at the county court house foreclosure auctions.

Somebody asked me the other day where all of the foreclosure deals went.

“Away,” I said.

We are now at or below normal levels for foreclosures. Its an interesting thing and amazing how time flies.

Our friends at the Cromford Report had an interesting quick analysis of where we are in comparison to other states. Here’s an excerpt:

“The Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor Report for March 2015 shows a sharp reduction in home loan delinquency for Arizona. The percentage of first loans with a late payment but not in foreclosure has dropped to 3.3% from 3.9% in February. The percentage of first loans in foreclosure remains at 0.6%, a level which has remained constant since May 2014. We can see the improving trend by examining the percentage of loans with a late payment but not in foreclosure for the last 6 months of March:

    •    March 2010 = 11.3%
    •    March 2011 = 8.6%
    •    March 2012 = 6.1%
    •    March 2013 = 4.9%
    •    March 2014 = 3.8%
    •    March 2015 = 3.3%

Arizona ranks 38 out of 50 states for delinquency pre-foreclosure, 45 out of 50 for loans in foreclosure and 42 out of 50 for overall non-current loans.

Black Knight Financial Services estimates that 9.6% of Arizona loans are underwater. This is the highest level for any state west of the Mississippi except for Nevada which is estimated at 16.4%. However there are still plenty of eastern states with higher levels:

    1.    Florida = 15.1%
    2.    Maryland = 14.0%
    3.    Illinois = 13.7%
    4.    New Jersey = 13.7%
    5.    Rhode Island = 13.5%
    6.    Connecticut = 12.3%
    7.    Ohio = 12.0%
    8.    Delaware = 11.4%
    9.    Michigan = 10.8%
    10.    Georgia = 10.8%
    11.    Wisconsin = 9.8%

Arizona’s loan delinquency is now well below the long term average, but negative equity remains a problem for about 1 in 10 borrowers.”

So, if you are thinking of finding distressed properties, we are back to the days when you had to be on the inside with banks so you can get those lists when they take the homes back.

I cut my teeth as a realtor on foreclosures and short sales. I have strong teeth.

Call me if you have any questions about the market today. We are here to help. 602-456-9388.

This post follows on a post that I did back in March, in which I discussed that there is such a tight rental market right now. Surprisingly enough, it was called “What Does a Tight Rental Market Mean?” I’m clever that way.

So, our friends at the Cromford Report have added an interesting thought to this conversation the lack of supply of entry-level homes:

“The most obvious source of new supply would be the large number of homes that are currently owned by landlords and used as rentals. However vacancy rates are low, rents are rising and these landlords would probably buy more properties if they could rather than sell them off. There are remarkably few new homes being built below $200K and if this situation persists, it is going to remain a very competitive struggle for buyers. Prices are likely to rise faster than earnings. This is good for current homeowners but bad for those currently renting and wanting to get started in home ownership. This could become even more of a problem if mortgage interest rates rise, adding to affordability problems for the first time home buyer.”

To put it another way, those folks who bought when the market was low and created cash-flow rentals have no incentive to sell. They are making money!

Unfortunately, this is shutting a lot of moderate-income buyers out of the market. It may be worse when interest rates begin to rise again at the end of this year.

So, if you are thinking of buying and if you are in this range, we need to talk! Call me at 602-456-9388.

Oh, and why “llamas” in the title? Well, I like alliteration.

Our friends at the Cromford Report are always great about allowing us to share their analysis. As an agent, their information really gives me an edge that will benefit you.

Here’s are some highlights from they have to say about why we have seen a sudden shift to a seller’s market:

April continued the trends we saw in March with significant improvement in demand and volumes, though different price ranges are experiencing very different supply dynamics.

Currently the supply situation is the most important thing to watch and this is what determines how much competition buyers will experience.

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2015 relative to May 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
    •    Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,512 versus 26,205 last year – down 17.9% – and down 3.5% from 22,303 last month
    •    Pending Listings: 7,951 versus 7,199 last year – up 10.4% – and up 1.2% from 7,853 last month
    •    Monthly Sales: 8,363 versus 7,572 last year – up 10.4% – and up 6.0% from 7,887 last month
    •    Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.88 versus $130.27 last year – up 4.3% – and up 2.9% from $131.99 last month
    •    Monthly Median Sales Price: $202,000 versus $190,000 last year – up 6.3% – and up 1.0% from $200,000 last month

From a seller’s perspective there is a lot of encouragement in this batch of numbers, though buyers might be dismayed to see price per sq. ft. rise by almost 3% in a single month.

For the sub-$200K price bands we are seeing mostly unexceptional demand, but exceptionally low supply, which is leading to multiple offer situations and strong upward price pressure.

As we move upmarket from $250K, things become a little easier for buyers because supply is less scarce. Once we get above $400K there are more active listings than last year and most buyers are having a much easier time with less competition from other buyers. In other words, demand is good but supply is plentiful at these higher price points.

Personally, I would add my own analysis here to mention that homes in the historic areas and CenPho tend to command higher prices than most areas. So, our experience with our clients right now shows that this tightness in supply goes up closer to $300k. In other words, it is difficult to get offers in quickly enough for nice listings in historic areas, even at the higher prices.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, please give me a call and I’ll help you put a strategy together, which takes these trends in to account. Call me at 602-456-9388.

Thank you Darek Pasieka of Milk Bar for hosting April’s Get Your PHX. We had a huge turn-out for this event. Perhaps it was the prospect of enjoying the last of the cool weather, or the perogies. Don’t know. Don’t care. Had a blast! 

Get Your PHX is heading to Corduroy, where the roaring 20’s live on every night.

As always, RSVP using the ‘Tickets’ link

Inspired by the beautiful 1920’s architecture, visionary developers Tom Jetland and Mark Dillon decided to theme their newest restaurant, Corduroy, after the iconic era. The kind of place where you’d find Jay Gatsby enjoying scallops and pancetta!

“We tried to respectfully design the building to retain it’s flair of the early era by allowing the rugged brick to shine through with era lighting, 20’s jazz music, time honored color schemes and a new art-deco tin ceiling to bring it back to it’s glory days.” 

With more than a few successful restaurants under their belt, including Fez, Ticoz, Switch and Ibiza Café in Scottsdale, Jetland and Dillon continue to provide an unpretentious and approachable environment, starting with small plates. Portuguese Corn Dogs, Potato Croquettes and Spanakopita are just a few of the  choices and are an easy excuse for an after-work meet up with friends. 

“Our menu was inspired to have shareable and creative smaller plates for a sense of communal dining. Textural and complex flavored foods as well as classic European favorites and some interesting fusions to round out the menu.”

Making a splash are modern cocktails and prohibition classics. A Bees Knees, High Ball and Aviation are a surefire way to reset and unwind after a long day. Looking for something more “21st century” in the cocktail shaker? Corduroy’s Zurracapote combines Red Wine with Stone Fruit, Raisin Syrup, Triple Sec and Brandy… one sip and you’ll be a fan for life!

It’s true that Tom and Mark have their finger on the pulse of our city and they use that insight to create a more vibrant downtown. Corduroy is more than a restaurant, it’s a reason to meet and gather. Corduroy breathes new life into a historic space and is where new memories form. We’re excited to have Tom Jetland and Mike Dillon leading the way for how we interact with downtown Phoenix.

So break out your wingtips, fringe flapper dress and take a jorum of skee with Get Your PHX this May as we check out Corduroy, the best thing in Phoenix since prohibition was lifted.

As always, please RSVP below.  

 Where: 2601 N Central, Phoenix 85012 (map it)
Date: Thursday, May 21st
Time: 5:30PM – 7:30PM
Bonus:  prizes! Don’t forget your raffle ticket at the door!
RSVP: May Get Your PHX: Corduroy

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If you want a good measure of which direction the market is going, take a tip form our friends at the Cromford Report: watch how many days it takes on average for homes to sell.

From Cromford:

“April 20 – There is one “average days on market” measure that is actually quite useful but almost nobody measures. This is the average number of days on market for pending listings. We can interpret it as follows:

For all areas & types the following guidelines apply

• under 60 means a very hot market
• 60- 70 means a hot market
• 70-80 means a warm market
• 80-90 means a balanced market
• 90-110 means a cool market
• over 110 means a very cold market

The absolute number is probably less useful than the trend. When the number is falling, the market is improving and when it is rising it is deteriorating (from a sellers perspective).”

So, have a look at this chart, showing average days on market for the zip codes which house the major historic neighborhoods, plus much of central, north central and downtown corridors.

The first three months of the year show a distinct drop in days on market. The over-all condition is much lower than it was just four years ago. But, this current trend tracks with what I was seeing in my last post about the seller’s advantage we are seeing right now.

If you need help navigating what all of this means and applying it to your personal situation, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

Last month, I pointed out that the Cromford Index was showing that the market was turning toward a sellers’ advantage. I was shocked to see that trend taking an extreme swing upward.

To get a background on what the Cromford Index shows us, please see last month’s article.

So, what does this mean for you? If you are thinking to sell, then you are in a good position to do it now, before the summer might slow down this trend.

If you are thinking to purchase, then we need to talk strategy. What this means for you also depends on your specific situation and the neighborhood in which you live.

No doubt, this is a shifting market.

If you need help navigating it, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 and let’s assess the situation.

Until I win that $50 million Powerball, I don’t expect to purchase a $3 million home.

Well, I probably would not, even then. And I know that most of my clients are not in the market.

That’s not to say that I can’t help you buy that luxury home, either.

So, why do I care about whether those are selling right now?

Well, because they are like a canary in a coal mine –albeit very LARGE canaries in a coal mine.

It is a positive economic indicator if luxury homes are on the market and if they are selling well. If the market is doing well at this range, it is a good bet that the market is doing well at the lower price ranges.

There are 32 listings over $3,000,000 that are under contract at the moment. This is the highest number we have seen since the housing boom. The average number since 2011 has been 10, and prior to March this year we had not seen any count higher than 20.

This data is brought to us from our friends at The Cromford Report.

Clearly the buyer interest in uber-luxury homes is very strong. Typically, “luxury” starts at about $1 million, depending on who you ask.

Whether you plan to buy $3 million luxury home, or a $100,000 home that is a luxury to you, it is best to know the data.

We can help. Call us at 602-456-9388.