The old days at the county court house foreclosure auctions.

Somebody asked me the other day where all of the foreclosure deals went.

“Away,” I said.

We are now at or below normal levels for foreclosures. Its an interesting thing and amazing how time flies.

Our friends at the Cromford Report had an interesting quick analysis of where we are in comparison to other states. Here’s an excerpt:

“The Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor Report for March 2015 shows a sharp reduction in home loan delinquency for Arizona. The percentage of first loans with a late payment but not in foreclosure has dropped to 3.3% from 3.9% in February. The percentage of first loans in foreclosure remains at 0.6%, a level which has remained constant since May 2014. We can see the improving trend by examining the percentage of loans with a late payment but not in foreclosure for the last 6 months of March:

    •    March 2010 = 11.3%
    •    March 2011 = 8.6%
    •    March 2012 = 6.1%
    •    March 2013 = 4.9%
    •    March 2014 = 3.8%
    •    March 2015 = 3.3%

Arizona ranks 38 out of 50 states for delinquency pre-foreclosure, 45 out of 50 for loans in foreclosure and 42 out of 50 for overall non-current loans.

Black Knight Financial Services estimates that 9.6% of Arizona loans are underwater. This is the highest level for any state west of the Mississippi except for Nevada which is estimated at 16.4%. However there are still plenty of eastern states with higher levels:

    1.    Florida = 15.1%
    2.    Maryland = 14.0%
    3.    Illinois = 13.7%
    4.    New Jersey = 13.7%
    5.    Rhode Island = 13.5%
    6.    Connecticut = 12.3%
    7.    Ohio = 12.0%
    8.    Delaware = 11.4%
    9.    Michigan = 10.8%
    10.    Georgia = 10.8%
    11.    Wisconsin = 9.8%

Arizona’s loan delinquency is now well below the long term average, but negative equity remains a problem for about 1 in 10 borrowers.”

So, if you are thinking of finding distressed properties, we are back to the days when you had to be on the inside with banks so you can get those lists when they take the homes back.

I cut my teeth as a realtor on foreclosures and short sales. I have strong teeth.

Call me if you have any questions about the market today. We are here to help. 602-456-9388.

This post follows on a post that I did back in March, in which I discussed that there is such a tight rental market right now. Surprisingly enough, it was called “What Does a Tight Rental Market Mean?” I’m clever that way.

So, our friends at the Cromford Report have added an interesting thought to this conversation the lack of supply of entry-level homes:

“The most obvious source of new supply would be the large number of homes that are currently owned by landlords and used as rentals. However vacancy rates are low, rents are rising and these landlords would probably buy more properties if they could rather than sell them off. There are remarkably few new homes being built below $200K and if this situation persists, it is going to remain a very competitive struggle for buyers. Prices are likely to rise faster than earnings. This is good for current homeowners but bad for those currently renting and wanting to get started in home ownership. This could become even more of a problem if mortgage interest rates rise, adding to affordability problems for the first time home buyer.”

To put it another way, those folks who bought when the market was low and created cash-flow rentals have no incentive to sell. They are making money!

Unfortunately, this is shutting a lot of moderate-income buyers out of the market. It may be worse when interest rates begin to rise again at the end of this year.

So, if you are thinking of buying and if you are in this range, we need to talk! Call me at 602-456-9388.

Oh, and why “llamas” in the title? Well, I like alliteration.

Our friends at the Cromford Report are always great about allowing us to share their analysis. As an agent, their information really gives me an edge that will benefit you.

Here’s are some highlights from they have to say about why we have seen a sudden shift to a seller’s market:

April continued the trends we saw in March with significant improvement in demand and volumes, though different price ranges are experiencing very different supply dynamics.

Currently the supply situation is the most important thing to watch and this is what determines how much competition buyers will experience.

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2015 relative to May 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
    •    Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,512 versus 26,205 last year – down 17.9% – and down 3.5% from 22,303 last month
    •    Pending Listings: 7,951 versus 7,199 last year – up 10.4% – and up 1.2% from 7,853 last month
    •    Monthly Sales: 8,363 versus 7,572 last year – up 10.4% – and up 6.0% from 7,887 last month
    •    Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.88 versus $130.27 last year – up 4.3% – and up 2.9% from $131.99 last month
    •    Monthly Median Sales Price: $202,000 versus $190,000 last year – up 6.3% – and up 1.0% from $200,000 last month

From a seller’s perspective there is a lot of encouragement in this batch of numbers, though buyers might be dismayed to see price per sq. ft. rise by almost 3% in a single month.

For the sub-$200K price bands we are seeing mostly unexceptional demand, but exceptionally low supply, which is leading to multiple offer situations and strong upward price pressure.

As we move upmarket from $250K, things become a little easier for buyers because supply is less scarce. Once we get above $400K there are more active listings than last year and most buyers are having a much easier time with less competition from other buyers. In other words, demand is good but supply is plentiful at these higher price points.

Personally, I would add my own analysis here to mention that homes in the historic areas and CenPho tend to command higher prices than most areas. So, our experience with our clients right now shows that this tightness in supply goes up closer to $300k. In other words, it is difficult to get offers in quickly enough for nice listings in historic areas, even at the higher prices.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, please give me a call and I’ll help you put a strategy together, which takes these trends in to account. Call me at 602-456-9388.

Thank you Darek Pasieka of Milk Bar for hosting April’s Get Your PHX. We had a huge turn-out for this event. Perhaps it was the prospect of enjoying the last of the cool weather, or the perogies. Don’t know. Don’t care. Had a blast! 

Get Your PHX is heading to Corduroy, where the roaring 20’s live on every night.

As always, RSVP using the ‘Tickets’ link

Inspired by the beautiful 1920’s architecture, visionary developers Tom Jetland and Mark Dillon decided to theme their newest restaurant, Corduroy, after the iconic era. The kind of place where you’d find Jay Gatsby enjoying scallops and pancetta!

“We tried to respectfully design the building to retain it’s flair of the early era by allowing the rugged brick to shine through with era lighting, 20’s jazz music, time honored color schemes and a new art-deco tin ceiling to bring it back to it’s glory days.” 

With more than a few successful restaurants under their belt, including Fez, Ticoz, Switch and Ibiza Café in Scottsdale, Jetland and Dillon continue to provide an unpretentious and approachable environment, starting with small plates. Portuguese Corn Dogs, Potato Croquettes and Spanakopita are just a few of the  choices and are an easy excuse for an after-work meet up with friends. 

“Our menu was inspired to have shareable and creative smaller plates for a sense of communal dining. Textural and complex flavored foods as well as classic European favorites and some interesting fusions to round out the menu.”

Making a splash are modern cocktails and prohibition classics. A Bees Knees, High Ball and Aviation are a surefire way to reset and unwind after a long day. Looking for something more “21st century” in the cocktail shaker? Corduroy’s Zurracapote combines Red Wine with Stone Fruit, Raisin Syrup, Triple Sec and Brandy… one sip and you’ll be a fan for life!

It’s true that Tom and Mark have their finger on the pulse of our city and they use that insight to create a more vibrant downtown. Corduroy is more than a restaurant, it’s a reason to meet and gather. Corduroy breathes new life into a historic space and is where new memories form. We’re excited to have Tom Jetland and Mike Dillon leading the way for how we interact with downtown Phoenix.

So break out your wingtips, fringe flapper dress and take a jorum of skee with Get Your PHX this May as we check out Corduroy, the best thing in Phoenix since prohibition was lifted.

As always, please RSVP below.  

 Where: 2601 N Central, Phoenix 85012 (map it)
Date: Thursday, May 21st
Time: 5:30PM – 7:30PM
Bonus:  prizes! Don’t forget your raffle ticket at the door!
RSVP: May Get Your PHX: Corduroy

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If you want a good measure of which direction the market is going, take a tip form our friends at the Cromford Report: watch how many days it takes on average for homes to sell.

From Cromford:

“April 20 – There is one “average days on market” measure that is actually quite useful but almost nobody measures. This is the average number of days on market for pending listings. We can interpret it as follows:

For all areas & types the following guidelines apply

• under 60 means a very hot market
• 60- 70 means a hot market
• 70-80 means a warm market
• 80-90 means a balanced market
• 90-110 means a cool market
• over 110 means a very cold market

The absolute number is probably less useful than the trend. When the number is falling, the market is improving and when it is rising it is deteriorating (from a sellers perspective).”

So, have a look at this chart, showing average days on market for the zip codes which house the major historic neighborhoods, plus much of central, north central and downtown corridors.

The first three months of the year show a distinct drop in days on market. The over-all condition is much lower than it was just four years ago. But, this current trend tracks with what I was seeing in my last post about the seller’s advantage we are seeing right now.

If you need help navigating what all of this means and applying it to your personal situation, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

Last month, I pointed out that the Cromford Index was showing that the market was turning toward a sellers’ advantage. I was shocked to see that trend taking an extreme swing upward.

To get a background on what the Cromford Index shows us, please see last month’s article.

So, what does this mean for you? If you are thinking to sell, then you are in a good position to do it now, before the summer might slow down this trend.

If you are thinking to purchase, then we need to talk strategy. What this means for you also depends on your specific situation and the neighborhood in which you live.

No doubt, this is a shifting market.

If you need help navigating it, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 and let’s assess the situation.

Until I win that $50 million Powerball, I don’t expect to purchase a $3 million home.

Well, I probably would not, even then. And I know that most of my clients are not in the market.

That’s not to say that I can’t help you buy that luxury home, either.

So, why do I care about whether those are selling right now?

Well, because they are like a canary in a coal mine –albeit very LARGE canaries in a coal mine.

It is a positive economic indicator if luxury homes are on the market and if they are selling well. If the market is doing well at this range, it is a good bet that the market is doing well at the lower price ranges.

There are 32 listings over $3,000,000 that are under contract at the moment. This is the highest number we have seen since the housing boom. The average number since 2011 has been 10, and prior to March this year we had not seen any count higher than 20.

This data is brought to us from our friends at The Cromford Report.

Clearly the buyer interest in uber-luxury homes is very strong. Typically, “luxury” starts at about $1 million, depending on who you ask.

Whether you plan to buy $3 million luxury home, or a $100,000 home that is a luxury to you, it is best to know the data.

We can help. Call us at 602-456-9388.

Congratulations to our friends Abraham James and Patrick Hallman at C&H and Associates are announcing that they received a $35,000 Community Development Block Grant for the third year in a row.

This is a grant that is awarded to architectural firm so that they can provide architectural services to small businesses. This could be somebody who wants to open up a restaurant, coffee shop or retail space.

The funds come from Housing and Urban Development, through the City of Phoenix. If the architectural project goes well, the owner of the business must two hire employees. In this way, the grant supports economic development.

Some examples of previous grants that worked with C&H and Associates include JoBot Coffee, Core Crossfit, Karl’s Bakery, the Canvass corner at 3rd St. and Roosevelt.

If you own a business, or if you are starting a business that might benefit from these services, please call Abraham James at 602-275-1377 for more information.

Congratulations, Abraham and Patrick!

Here’s something new for you in Downtown Phoenix: Milk Bar. Remember that cream colored building on the corner of McKinley and 3^rd St.? The one that sat empty for so long?

Well Darek Pasieka has redeveloped the space into an incredible bar and restaurant celebrating Polish culture with a modern twist.

Built in 1909, the Western colonial/modern style house, (historically named the Marsh Arnott House), has changed over the years, a reflection of its diverse tenants. The structure has served as a residence, law office, art space, and hair salon before becoming a European bar.

When Pasieka’s company, Studio Darek, took on the adaptive reuse project, there was a lot of speculation from the neighborhood about what was in the works. Some thought a cult while others thought it a tribute to Anthony Burgess’ Clockwork Orange. Alas, neither is true. But Darek’s a good sport and has added a drink onto the menu called Clockwork, which is made with Zolta Gorbka Orange and Clove Vodka and is utterly delicious.

Since 1896, Milk Bars, or Bar Mleczny, have been a staple of Poland and Eastern Europe, especially for the working class during the Soviet Era. As the name entails, it was here that traditional milk-based dishes were served at a reasonable cost. After communism fell, Milk Bars remained popular hangouts because of the warm and welcoming atmosphere.

“These Milk Bars – known for affordable food but high quality—would survive as nostalgic relics. Milk Bars to this day have stayed popular as a meeting place for people of all walks of life,” says Darek.

At Milk Bar, the potato is king. Lining the menu are euro posh vodka drinks and pierogi stuffed with combinations of cheese, spinach, mushroom, and meat.

As an accomplished architect, and now restaurant/bar owner, Darek Pasieka continues to turn heads with his ‘past meets present’ ideas. As he puts it, “Respecting the past, celebrating the present, and looking into the future. This is my architecture.”

Join us this month for an unforgettable Get Your PHX as we head to Phoenix’s Milk Bar. Pierogi provided courtesy of our host, Darek Pasieka, and cash bar for drinks. Bonus points for anyone that dons a bowler hat, eyelash embellishment or white suit!

As always, please RSVP below. “Na zdrowie!”
                                                           (Cheers!)

Where: Milk Bar: 801 N. 3^rd St.
Date: Thursday, April 23^rd
Time: 6:00PM – 8:00PM
Bonus: Pierogi and prizes! Don’t forget your raffle ticket at the door!
RSVP: April Get Your PHX: Milk Bar

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I’m sure you’ve heard of home buyer programs over the years, programs that are funded by cities or counties and which help you buy your first home, if you qualify.

Folks ask me about them from time to time. And, while I’ve sold homes on these programs, I usually refer them to one of our mortgage broker friends for the latest updates. 

The reason is that the programs come and go faster than child stars on the Disney Channel.

Just this month, a new program was announced that would loan qualified home buyers up to $25,000 to be used as a down payment on a new home. This one is not run by the cities or counties, but by the private non-profit that has set aside $1 million to help low and moderate income families get in to a home.

NOTE: these are not grants, they are loans. So, in addition to the loan on the home, you will have to pay off the down payment loan over 15 years. To qualify – a family of four must make less than $51,000, and a single person make less than $35,850.

Two more notes of caution. First, be careful of anybody who offers you a loan on top of a loan. This organization seems to be a non-profit group that seems to be saying the right things. But, you should always look closely at all materials. Second, it may not be advisable to buy a home with little or no down payment. It is important to have “skin in the game.”

If you want to see a nice list of buyer assistance programs, check out Community Housing Resources of Arizona’s website. This may not be all of the options out there and I don’t personally endorse any in particular. But, they are out there. If you are willing to participate in the program, you may save a lot of money on your first home.

Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 for more information.