Here’s your January Phoenix Market Update. Our friends at the Cromford Report are showing a very slight increase in sold price over December.

Price per square foot – Phoenix

“For the monthly period ending January 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $138.24 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is very little changed from the $138.32 we now measure for December 15.

On January 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $142.04, 0.7% above the reading for December 15. Among those pending listings we have 88.0% normal, 4.6% in REOs and 7.3% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This has changed little from this time last month.

So we are not expecting a lot of movement between January and February, although any direction is more likely to be to the upside.”

Anecdotally, Michelle and I were seeing sellers staying on the market a little longer in December, and sold prices coming in a little lower than list price. But, that’s to be expected around the holidays.

Seller’s vs. Buyer’s Market?

We are in a bit of a waiting period right now in the CenPho area. Will the market get active, as it usually does between February and July? Or, will we see a continuation of the slacking seller’s market from December?

If you are a seller, price realistically. We discourage “going fishing” –listing at a high price, hoping somebody will pay higher than market value. That usually leads to people passing up your listing for more attractively priced homes –then your listing goes stale.

Buyers, don’t be afraid to offer what the market shows to be reality, but don’t expect price drops. The seller’s market is went a little slack, but it is still in seller’s market range (according to the Cromford Index).

As always, please give us a call for any of your real estate needs at 602-456-9388.

When I heard that a movie was made about our own Durant’s restaurant and bar, I had to act quickly. The director was thinking of hosting the world premier in Scottsdale.

Not over my dead body. Nothing against Scottsdale, but is Durant’s in Scottsdale? Was this restaurant, which was the scene of many political deals, schemes and even plans to assassinate reporter Don Bolles in 1976 not located in Phoenix?

I immediately got on the phone with Kendall over at Local First Arizona, our Get Your PHX event co-conspirator, we found great partners with the Renaissance Phoenix Downtown Hotel and Edison Midtown (now under construction steps away from the original Durant’s (Official).

We are putting together a star-studded, red carpeted premier event that respects the history and tradition of Phoenix on January 21st , 2016 at the Renaissance. The premiere screening of the film will take place January 21st in the ballroom of the Renaissance Downtown Hotel. The event starts at 6pm with a pre-party mixer and the screening will begin at 7pm.

Tickets will be sold online ONLY until January 17th. Your name will be on a will call list. Tickets must be purchased on computers, mobile devices are experiencing issues.

Watch the trailer for Durant’s Never Closes here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXZQBsHevkg

Check out some of the press for the film: http://www.durantsnevercloses.com/press/

And here’s a little more history from you, thanks to Kendall over at Local First:

Jack Durant first opened his famous, (or infamous?), steakhouse, Durant’s, in 1950 at Central and Virginia Avenues, and remains frozen in time with red leather booths and server staff donning red vests. Durant’s quickly became a favorite hotspot for movie stars and sports icons; a place where you’d find John Wayne, Joe DiMaggio and Clark Gable enjoying steak and martinis.

Owner Jack Durant was no shy character in Phoenix’s history with rumors surrounding his ties to mobster Bugsy Seigel when he was a teenager to the murder of Arizona reporter, Don Bolles, which Durant was said to have been planned right in his restaurant. “It’s not like anything else in Phoenix because you know it feels like you walked into ‘Goodfellas,’ basically,” said Valley filmmaker Travis Mills of Running Wild Films.

The film, Durant’s Never Closes, centers around the legendary Jack Durant, a restaurateur, ladies’ man, and mysterious gentleman who maintained many connections to the mafia. Based on the play by Terry Earp and the book by Mabel Leo, tells his story during one day at his restaurant. Tom Sizemore stars as Jack Durant along with Peter Bogdanovich and Phoenix’s own, Wayne Rainey.

“Durant’s was the spot for the movers and shakers of Phoenix,” said Mills. “Celebrities, politicians, mobsters, they came and they made business deals here.”

From the backwoods of Tennessee, to the world of Vegas at the time of Bugsy, and finally as the owner of his famous steakhouse, Durant is a legend and dynamic character, at once charming, powerful, and dangerous…

I had the pleasure this month of doing a presentation to a One Community business lunch group with the esteemed Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report.

We were exploring the larger questions of why people perceive changes in the market as they do, as well as noting the market shift we are under-going right now.

For instance, there is always a lag between when the Cromford Index starts to see a shift between seller’s and buyer’s market conditions and when the market actually changes. This is as close to a crystal ball as I’ve ever seen.

The chart to the right is a little hard to see because I grabbed it from Tina’s powerpoint presentation. But, generally, you can see that the shift in the Cromford Index almost always precedes shifts in the market.

Paradoxically, you CAN see the market index dropping while prices are still increasing. But once sellers see fewer and fewer buyers, or stay on the market longer, prices begin to drop.

That is what we are seeing right now. We see the Index shifting back toward a balanced market, or maybe even a buyer’s market. Tina figures that this trend will persist over the next few months.

That is why this month’s update from Cromford seems odd at first, but makes sense when you learn more about how the Cromford Index works.

“Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $135.55, which is 0.3% lower than the November 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $132.84 to $138.26.”

What they are saying is that the prices are staying pretty close to the same as last month, even going up a small amount. But, in the next few months, they will likely chase the Cromford Index downward.

What does this mean? It means if you are a seller right now, price aggressively. Don’t think that because your buddy Frank sold his house 3 months ago for a huge profit that the market is in that same place. If he sold it three months ago, then he probably priced it based on comparable properties that sold six months ago. Thats, like, a different epoch altogether!

So, sellers, either be competitive and get ahead of this line or find yourself chasing it downward after being on the market for a while. Buyers, this is not a market where you can offer 10% less than asking and get it. But the advantage is trending your way.

Over-all, too, our market still remains generally affordable, despite price increases since 2014. This chart says that right now a family making the median household income can afford 70.9 percent of all houses on the market. Not bad.

We do, however, need homes for first time home buyers and moderate-income buyers, especially in the CenPho market. I hear there are some developments on the way on that. More later.

If you need advice on how to buy or sell, let’s consult the market data tea leaves together. Call me at 602-456-9388.

Have we really been hosting Phoestivus for six years now? What kind of madness is this? Every year we celebrate locally-owned businesses and raise money for Community Food Connections, the folks who run the downtown open air farmer’s market.

Plus, it simply gives us a chance to show of our true goofy credentials with our Pheats of Strength, the Phoestivus Pole and the Airing of Grievances. This is also the second annual Zero K race. Now, that’s got you intrigued, right?

I, personally, get most of my shopping done at one place. Could it be that I’m avoiding the mad rush of them malls and chain stores? Or, maybe I’m just lazy and prefer knocking out all the shopping with a Phoestivus Ale in my hand. Who knows?

December 10th and 17th
721 N Central, Phoenix

Thank you so much to our friends at Hidden Track Bottle Shop. It feels like Phoenix are growing up when we get a downtown, exclusive wine shop like Hidden Track. It especially warmed my heart that they highlighted so many locally-grown wines.

Now, on to November. Shipping containers are finding a new home here on Grand Ave. and Get Your PHX is inviting you to take a look inside the future of residential living!

Be on the lookout for our exclusive Get Your PHX offer from both ThirdSpace and Grand Avenue Pizza; you’ll just flash your red raffle ticket to get the deals.

Looking forward to seeing you at the Containers on Grand this month. As always, please RSVP below.

When: Thursday, November 19^th, from 5:30PM – 7:30PM
Where: Containers on Grand: 12^th Ave & Grand
Details: Specials from ThirdSpace and Grand Avenue Pizza + Free raffle ticket to great prizes!

RSVP HERE

Check us out on Facebook here.

The cooling trend that started gently in August has now developed more momentum. Supply is still growing faster than it did last year while demand continues to show a slow weakening trend. Things are getting better for buyers and worse for sellers.

It remains a seller’s market in most areas where properties can be easily found for the median sales price of $213,000 or less. Elsewhere we are dropping towards a balanced market and one or two areas have retreated to a level where buyers have a small advantage.

The Cromford® Market Index moved from around the 144 mark at the beginning of October to around the 134 mark at the beginning of November (all cities). This has now become a significant enough change for most people to feel a difference. More sellers are becoming frustrated, especially those in those with the highest growth in active listings and relatively weak demand.

We’ve advised our clients to price competitively. If you are thinking about selling, let’s talk about how to build a strategy. It is easy to believe that a seller’s market might return in January, after the holidays. But, previous years indicate that this may not always be the case.

Call me at 602-456-9388 for more information.

September developed a bit of a cooling trend, as compared to earlier in the year with a very strong seller’s market. Supply has started to grow and demand weakened slightly again. This is not really a major market development like we saw around this time two years ago, but it might be considered mildly disappointing for those rooting for the market to go from strength to strength.

It remains a seller’s market overall. The Cromford® Market Index moved from around the 148 mark at the beginning of August to around the 144 mark at the beginning of October, reversing the gains in August. This is not enough change for my friends at the Index to predict a major change.  But it is fair to say that market balance moved to give seller’s slightly less of an advantage in most areas.

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2015 relative to October 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
    •    Active Listings (excluding UCB): 20,024 versus 23,514 last year – down 14.8% – but up 4.8% from 19,101 last month
    •    Active Listings (including UCB): 23,238 versus 26,336 last year – down 11.8% – but up 3.7% compared with 22,413 last month
    •    Pending Listings: 5,789 versus 5,481 last year – up 5.6% – but down 7.5% from 6,259 last month
    •    Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 9,003 versus 8,303 last year – up 8.4% – but down 5.9% from 9,571 last month
    •    Monthly Sales: 6,966 versus 6,230 last year – up 11.8% – but down 0.9% from 7,100 last month
    •    Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $133.24 versus $126.82 last year – up 5.1% – but up 0.7% from $132.26 last month
    •    Monthly Median Sales Price: $211,000 versus $195,000 last year – up 8.2% – but up 1.4% from $208,000 last month

–Source. Cromfordreport.com

Thank you so much to our friends at Antique Sugar for hosting Get Your PHX in September. Their space is so comfortable and homey that I hung out for an hour after the event, just visiting with Sarah, Anna Marie and our Get Your PHX regulars.

Love wine? Then don’t miss our October Get Your PHX as we explore Hidden Track Bottle Shop, Phoenix’s newest haven for vino neophytes and virtuosos alike who are looking for that perfect bottle.

When you’re looking for that incredible lesser-known wine, it’s called the ‘hidden track’. The phrase is the inspiration for owners Danielle Middlebrook and Craig Dziadowicz’ new wine shop, Hidden Track Bottle Shop.

Fear not, beer lovers! Hidden Track’s got you covered…“Our shelves are stocked with 300+ selections of unique wine and 100+ selections of craft beer from around the world. We also offer a few artisan foods to pair well with your wine and beer,” says Middlebrook

With a combined 20 years experience in wine, Craig and Danielle’s approach to the industry is like a modern day explorer discovering new land. Even here in the desert, vast acres have been transformed into vineyards producing incredible wines.

“Arizona is such a unique and exciting wine region! We turned over every cactus and prickly pear to find some of our state’s most shining examples of locally grown and produced wine. A few of our favorite wineries are D.A.Ranch and Bodega Pierce/Saeculum Cellars. D.A.Ranch offers small production wines grown from only seven acres of their estate located in the heart of the Verde Valley. Bodega Pierce/Saeculum Cellars also offers estate grown fruit…” Okay, so we had to cut it off there because these folks go on forever about how awesome wine is!

Looking to try before you buy? Every Thursday (4:30-6:30p) and Saturdays (noon-3:00p) Hidden Track hosts a wine and beer tastings. Also, you can join their über popular wine club where you’ll score great deals on extraordinary wines! Click here to join

The downtown core’s been notorious for vacating each weekend, but that’s changing, and changing fast. More people are exploring downtown Phoenix seven days a week, and with the addition of places like Hidden Track, Morning Moonshine, Valley Bar and so many more, there’s always something exciting to explore anytime of day. Join us as we uncover Hidden Track Bottle Shop and Morning Moonshine, right next door!

When: Thursday, October 22^nd from 5:30P – 7:30P
Where: 111 W. Monroe, Phoenix
Details: Wine tasting, snacks and raffle entry provided! Open to all public (wine tasting for 21+ only!)

Please RSVP here, as this engagement has limited space.

Join our Facebook event and invite your friends too!

Phoenix’s favorite vintage clothing store, Antique Sugar, recently set new roots at the corner of McKinley & Second Streets – and owners, AnnaMarie Sanchez and Sarah Bingham couldn’t be more excited.

As Sarah puts it, “Years ago, when we were first looking for shop space, we had envisioned ourselves downtown, but fate and opportunity took us to the Melrose, which was also an insanely cool neighborhood to be a part of. But coming downtown feels like coming home…”

Just as we suspected, Sanchez and Bingham have been in the vintage game since they could first drive to thrift stores. “We’ve been buying and selling vintage clothing since high school. We always loved thrift shopping and eventually started selling on Ebay.”

After realizing the potential of what a storefront could offer, the two friends took the plunge and opened Antique Sugar’s brick and mortar in 2010. They proudly called Melrose home till the AC went out last summer; the out-of-state landlord was of little help, and, as Sarah adds, “…Our lease was ending in March of this year and he [landlord] wanted to raise the rent 40%,“ Once they found out a friend was converting old offices into retail space, they were ready for a change.

But the real question: Where do they get all the clothes?

“People always ask us where we find all this stuff and I wish there was a short answer. Basically, we’re always shopping; constantly going to estate sales and thrift shops,” Sarah says, “It’s a constant search and you never know when or where you might find something awesome.” This pretty much means that Sarah and AnnaMarie are the best at shopping, so you should save your time and simply shop at Antique Sugar for the best finds!

From the new office buildings that have transformed into retail space to the fact that Antique Sugar shares the street with FilmBar, The Velo, Angel’s Trumpet and more, we’re excited to welcome Sarah and AnnaMarie to their new home downtown.

Check out the retro fashion finds at Antique Sugar this month and enjoy complimentary bites, drinks and local shopping!

Date: Thursday, September 17^th
Time: 5:30-7:30p
Where: Antique Sugar: 801 N. 2^nd St., Phoenix
Details: Raffle prizes, small bites and drinks!
RSVP HERE

The Cromford Report folks track household formation to see how many new buyers are coming on the market.

I think its an interesting story for Phoenix, in particular. After the recession, we saw young couples choosing to rent longer, or even live with family for a while. Add that to the fact that this new generation of home buyer is coming on the market with higher levels of debt than ever before, and we see the makings of some serious downward pressure on the sub-$200k market.

However, and there is always a however, CenPho and historic neighborhoods are a little different. Well, in regards to sub-$200k, all of the valley is in the same boat. See in my previous post why we have a shortage, sub $200k. But, its particularly difficult in the urban dense areas because more people are moving in to those areas.

I also covered a few months ago how I believe we are over-building apartment complexes at the peril of owner-occupied properties. There is a six to one ratio of apartment to owner-occupied being built in downtown. That seems way off.

I think we will have options for young couples to own their own home if they want it, but we need to build more in-fill and the city needs to find a way to help.  With 43% of the land mass of Phoenix comprised of empty lots, and many of those owners holding to speculate, we need to get some of those properties in the hands of in-fill developers without the prices being prohibitively high.

Watch this trend if you are looking to buy in the next year to year-and-a-half.

If you are looking for more information, please call me at 602-456-9388.