The December 2016 Market Update is based on the latest numbers from November. Our friends at the Cromford Report provide us with the most reliable data to share with you.

“After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained a lot of upward momentum over the last 2 months. However that upward momentum is petering out now and increases in the rest of the year are likely to be modest. Nevertheless it still seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.

For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $145.44 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.8% from the $142.84 we now measure for October 15.

On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $147.84, up 0.2% from the reading for October 15.

Our mid-point forecast in the December Market Update for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $145.81, which is 0.2% above the November 15 reading.

Currently we are seeing additional supply arriving for the West Valley, especially Surprise, while supply in parts of the Southeast Valley is becoming tighter, especially in Chandler. On its own this change is likely to cool average pricing a little because the future sales mix will slightly favor the cheaper homes in the West Valley which sell extremely quickly.”

What does this mean for you? Well, I think prices will continue to rise, generally, and specifically in the CenPho and historic neighborhoods. There are few new houses being built in this area and people still want to live more centrally.

While there is increased pressure on the Federal Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, especially with news that we just hit the lowest unemployment rate in 9 years on December 2nd, even a one-point increase in interest rates probably won’t slow that demand. We are already at historically-low levels. So, we would be at “historically low + 1%.”

So, if you are looking to sell, I would do that between January and June, before any possible negative outcomes from an aggressive Trump immigration policy might take hold. Plus, that is the busiest time of the year. Please see my post on that issue, here.

If you are looking purchase, I would do that sooner, rather than later. If prices are going up and interest rates are going up, you could get hit with a double-whammy.

Give us a call and we can help you build the best strategy, 602-456-9388.

So, were you waiting for the election to purchase a home?

Well, the election is over and people are asking me whether its safe to purchase a home, or whether we should expect market turmoil under our new president.

They’ve seen stories like this one from the Arizona Republic, which speaks to scarcity in the housing market and makes a tenuous tie to the presidential election.

Here’s another article from Slate indicating that people have been putting off major buying decisions due to the election. While I’m sure some people have held off on major decisions, we have not seen that among our clients. We’ve been busy!

Even so, if folks have been waiting for the election to decide until now, we will know it in about a month. If monthly sales numbers bounce, then you will know that people are re-entering the market. I’ll look back in about a month and let you know what we see. If you are inclined to believe that people have been waiting to act, then you will want to act before that bounce happens.

More than anything, let me put these fears to rest: the real estate market is not likely to undergo some serious upheaval any time soon.

First, here’s some advice that I found to be accurate in this article, which really points to how short-term fears about a presidential election might benefit a few, but are not a good reason to act quickly for most. Here’s the key take-away quote:

“I don’t think it’s a wise idea to try to time any markets, especially housing,” says real estate expert Kurt Westfield at WCE Equity Group. “Housing markets are very localized, subject to microeconomic shifts. The election takes place on a much larger macroeconomic scale.”

Second, let’s talk about the nature of the real estate market and why you should not act in haste. Nor should you hold off if you need to buy or sell. In other words, just act on your housing needs as they are today.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that the markets move very slowly. I know. It did not feel that way in 2008 when people’s homes seemed to lose value in months. But, when you look at that data, it still took months, not days or weeks for major movements to take place.

Sure, you will see small changes around the end-of-year holidays when people are focussed family and parties, but that’s an annual deal and does not change the market too much.

The thing you should most be aware of in the short term (3-6 months) is interest rates. While they are still historically low and probably won’t jump too quickly, a one percent increase represents a lot of money over the life of a loan. We know that the Federal Reserve Bank is talking about interest rate increases, so we encourage you to speak with your lender about what he or she is seeing.

In other words, don’t hit the panic button on interest rates. Just keep an eye on it. Make your decision based on what you need when you need it.

Let’s turn for a second to the long-term view (18 months to 2 years) just so I can make one point about Donald Trump’s threats to deport 11 million people. If his threats are carried out in whole or in part, then you will definitely see a major hit to our real estate market, according to Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report.

I want to be careful here and temper that previous comment. That is IF he can forcibly deport people or IF they choose to leave on their own. And even then, the affects would be seen 3-6 months after he takes action.

According to Tina, we would see a dramatic increase in supply of homes (as people move away) at the same time we would see a huge reduction in demand (as immigrants would no longer purchase homes). Yes, immigrants own homes.

But this would also impact those folks who own rental properties. Many of whom voted for our next president. Further, according to Tina, the impact would not be localized to certain neighborhoods. The impact would be valley-wide.

In the even longer term, according to Tina, Arizona’s population is aging quickly and we don’t have younger people to replace the aging population who can afford to purchase homes.  Otherwise in the next 15-20 years we will have a huge excess of homes and prices will depress significantly.

This means that we need to find some solution to the immigration issue, which allows immigration in to Arizona.

You know, the very thing that the next president ran against.

We can help you make the right decision on your sale or purchase. Contact us at 602-456-9388.

If you live in APS territory, you’ll want to take note of this:

From: Media Relations (MediaRelations)

Sent: Wednesday, October 26, 2016 1:13 PM

Subject: CONSUMER ALERT: NEW SCAM TARGETING APS CUSTOMERS STATEWIDE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 26, 2016

Consumer Alert:

New Scam Targeting APS Customers STATEWIDE

90 incidents reported in last 10 days

PHOENIX – APS issued a warning today about a new scam where criminals

masquerading as APS employees are calling customers demanding immediate

payment of their electric bill under the threat of having their power turned

off. Potential victims are instructed to purchase prepaid cards in a

specific amount, and then call a special number to make the payment. In some

instances, the call back number goes to an automated phone system that acts

and sounds like the actual APS Customer Care Center.

While it is impossible to know how many customers have been targeted or have

fallen for the scam, APS security has received reports of more than 90

incidents across the state in the past 10 days. APS encourages customers who

have been targeted to report the incident to local law enforcement along

with APS at (602) 371-7171 or (800) 240-2014 (outside metro-Phoenix).

To keep customers from becoming a victim of consumer scams, APS provides the

following guidance<https://support.aps.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/175>:

*         APS never requires payment via a prepaid card.

*         The only valid phone numbers to call the APS Customer Care Center

are listed on customer bills and at aps.com<http://www.aps.com/>.

*         If there is ever a question about the validity of an email,

website or person claiming to be an APS representative, call the APS

Customer Care Center immediately at (602) 371-7171 to verify this

information.

*         Recognize the signs of a phishing email: mismatched fonts, missing

hyperlinks, improper grammar and misspellings.

*         Never share credit card information with an unverified source.

Customers who pay by credit card at aps.com<http://www.aps.com/> will be

directed to the KUBRA EZ-Pay website, which asks them to enter a “captcha”

validation code. A “captcha” typically uses a set of letters and numbers

that the user is required to manually retype and submit. Any other credit

card payment site is fraudulent and should not be used.

APS<http://www.aps.com/> serves about 2.7 million people in 11 of Arizona’s

15 counties, and is the Southwest’s foremost producer of clean, safe and

reliable electricity. Using a balanced energy mix that is nearly 50 percent

carbon-free, APS has one of the country’s most substantial renewable energy

portfolios, and owns and operates the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station,

the country’s top power producer and largest producer of carbon-free energy.

The company is also a proven leader in introducing technology and services

that offer customers choice and control over their energy consumption. With

headquarters in Phoenix, APS is the principal subsidiary of Pinnacle West

Capital Corp.<http://www.pinnaclewest.com> (NYSE: PNW).

Media Contact:

Steven Gotfried

(602) 250-3040

Website:

You are not going to want to miss this month’s Get Your PHX event. I know many of you have been watching the FOUND:RE, downtown’s newly-opened boutique lifestyle hotel, being built over the last couple years, right along side the second phase of Portland on the Park.

The old hotel stood for years in disrepair and developer Tim Sprague has put together a concept that is perfect for the urban art core that we’ve been working toward for decades in Phoenix. Found:re makes art its core mission, from original art in every room to the way the beds, lights and room dividers are constructed.

Almost everything you see is locally-sourced and locally made. We are not going to publish pictures here of the rooms because you have to see these yourself to believe it.

We will get a tour of the rooms, a suite, the conference facilities, the new restaurant Match, the the pool-side lounge. Each of these features original art that is curated by Mike Oleskow, in constant rotation. You won’t see chintzy paintings of the ocean, still hanging around from the 1960s, passing as artwork. You will see original art from local artists, some of whom also work in the hotel. In fact, most of the art that you see on the walls is also for sale; either in original form or as prints that you can see hung in the guest rooms.

The hotel’s restaurant, MATCH Cuisine & Cocktails, offers Executive Chef Akos Szabos’ take on shareable plates with an international twist, and a creative, thoughtful bar program.

I had a chance to eat at Match during a soft opening a few weeks ago. The food was amazing and beautifully presented. We were told during our tour that Match is going to start hosting Sunday brunches, which I’m particularly excited about since I’ll be able to walk there from my home.

So, this month, you are going to get a very exclusive tour (yes, we are capping attendance at this event at 100 participants) of the hotel, the rooms and the facilities. You will hear from Tim Sprague personally about his vision and the road he traveled to make this a reality. You will get to meet the art curator, Mike Oleskow and you will get to taste samples of the restaurants new menu.

You can’t just drop in on this one. We need you to sign up through our Google spreadsheet because attendance is limited on this one!

Please sign up at this free ticket link.

What: Get Your PHX at the The FOUND:RE
When: November 17th at 5:30 to about 7:30
Where: 1100 N Central in Phoenix
Facebook Invite Page

A couple months ago, we covered how to clean your microwave oven (in the green way) in time for your new showing so that prospective buyers won’t run screaming when they see the tiny civilization that has grown inside.

This month: how to clean your oven naturally and efficiently before the turkey takes over and makes you start all over again.

Well, I guess you could wait until after Thanksgiving, but this is so easy, you might not want to.

Our friend at Going GreenHouse cleaning service, April Prothero, tells us not to hit the self clean button on your oven right before Turkey Day.

That’s a bad idea, she says, and here’s why: self-clean cycles can be hard on your oven especially if it’s an older one. This may cause your oven to completely burn out and break down before your houseguests even have a chance to taste some of your perfectly cooked turkey—leaving you in panic.

But before you reach for the extremely harsh chemical storm of spray oven cleaners, check out her recipe for a natural and efficient oven cleaner to get your oven spic-and-span for the big holiday–with a little elbow grease of course.

All you need are a few items that are probably sitting around your house already:

• baking soda
• water
• white vinegar (for later)
• rubber gloves
• damp dish cloth
• spatula
• spray bottle

1. After removing the oven racks and anything else inside, mix up your cleaning paste. In a small bowl, mix ½ cup of baking soda with a few table spoons of water. Adjust the ratio of both as needed until you have a spreadable paste (usually about 3 tablespoons of water).
2. Spread this paste all over the interior of your oven, paying special attention to the greasier areas. Do not coat the heating elements. Let this sit for at least 12 hours, or overnight.
3. After 12 hours, take your damp cloth and wipe out as much of the dried on paste as possible. Use a spatula to help scrape off excess paste.
4. Put a little vinegar in a spray bottle and spray everywhere you see leftover baking soda residue. This will cause it to foam. Use your damp cloth to wipe away the rest of the foamy mixture its created. Add more vinegar and water as needed to clean it away.
5. Lastly, replace your oven racks and BAM! Clean, shiny oven!

This method may require a little sweat and elbow grease, but at least your nose hairs are still intact and you’re not struggling to breathe through harsh chemicals. Your oven will be perfectly prepared so you can put your guests into a turkey induced tryptophan coma!

And if you’re not in the mood to sweat, remember, you can always call April and the Going Greenhouse gang to schedule a special cleaning to include your oven.

We check in again with our friends at the Cromford Report for another market update.

Each month about this time they look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well their forecasting techniques performed. They also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

Important take-aways…

“For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $142.45 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.2% from the $139.37 we now measure for September 15.”

“After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained upward momentum and it seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.”

Anecdotally, Michelle and I are seeing a lot of activity. If you list it, price it well and prepare it to show nicely, it will sell quickly.

We are seeing listings that go under contract stay under contract. So, cancelled listings are pretty rare, at least in the CenPho and historic areas.

We are still concerned that the market is over-building apartments and ignoring the needs of moderate-income folks who want to live centrally. In other words, we need more owner-occupied. We don’t say this because we want to sell them all. But we know that neighborhoods need a good diversity, even if more folks are choosing not to purchase.

Interest rates continue to stay low, and people are taking advantage of it.

The historic areas have seen a steady upward climb in prices. People are getting solid financing, so we don’t expect the troubles of 2008. There will always be market corrections, but we feel confident that CenPho and Downtown will stay strong because there is a country-wide trend toward living in urban cores.

If you are thinking of selling or buying, please contact us at 602-456-9388. We will help you get the information you need for the right decision the first time.

I’m proud that my city is working on new ways to recycle and support up-start businesses at the same time.

Here is their RFP announcement, which calls for innovators who may be able to start new businesses around our waste stream. This is the kind of leadership we need to get serious about waste.

Go Phoenix!

——————

New RFP

The City of Phoenix has issued the Transforming Trash into Resources II Request for Proposals (RFP).  We’re looking for trash innovators who can transform carpeting, latex paint and urban wood into new products or reuse them for a new purpose.  The RFP is posted at www.phoenix.gov/solicitations/846.  All questions about this active RFP must be submitted in writing to Robyn.Skramstad@phoenix.gov 

Recent RFPs

Since our last update email, the City has made progress on the following RFPs:

• Community Outreach and Awareness Services RFP – the City has contracted with Recyclebank, LLC to assist the City in educating residents about our solid waste programs, including recycling and green organics, through Recyclebank’s rewards program.
• Palm Fronds Diversion RFP – the City is in contract negotiations with Palm Silage Arizona, LLC, which will transform palm fronds into livestock feed.
• Compost Facility and Temporary Mulching Area Operator/Manager RFP – the City is in contract negotiations with We Care Organics LLC, which will manage the City’s compost facility.

Upcoming RFPs

The City anticipates issuing the following RFPs:

• Textile Diversion Services RFP
• Materials Exchange Program RFP
• Anaerobic Digester RFP (feasibility study underway)
• Landfill Gas RFP (feasibility study underway)
• Boxes and Packing Materials Diversion RFP
• Recycled Plastics (#1 – #2) Diversion RFP
• Recycled Paper Diversion RFP
• Recycled Plastics (#3 – #7) Diversion to Liquid Fuel RFP

This article is a little old on the subject, but it gives you some good background.

I don’t know if you heard, but the Basha’s at the SW corner of 7th Ave and Osborn may be going away.

For years I’ve felt that the historic supermarket could be so much more. I support local and even I have found it difficult to shop there. The selection is small because the square footage is too.

But, according to this letter to neighbors, developers Trammel Crow are proposing mixed-use in-fill. From the looks of it, it does not include a renovated Basha’s. That’s sad. I think that Basha’s has a place in Arizona history and its future downtown.

But the company has been struggling in recent years and perhaps this is what they have to do.

Anyhoo, they are hosting an open house on November 2nd from 5:30 to 6:30 at Phoenix College, OSW Building Room 105.  This will be a big change to the landscape in this area. So, have a look if you are interested. See the letter linked above for more contact info and details.

Do you have an event that you’d like us to announce in our newsletter under the community news section? We are always looking for interesting news. Shoot us an email at ken@getyourphx.com and let us know.

From time to time, we get the chance to tour something really special. Something that very few people get to see. Such is the case with the October Get Your PHX. On October 20th we will be at the ASU Collaboratory at the Westward Ho.

But if that were not enough, we have an extra special treat. We will follow that guided tour with a visit to the much-anticipated SoSoBa noodle shop on Roosevelt and 2nd Ave.

First, the first part of our tour.

We all know the iconic former resort at Central and McKinley. For several decades the Westward Ho was THE premium resort in Phoenix, and was the site of visits from former presidents, stars of stage and screen, and countless tourists.

For so many years its been off limits –a closed-up like Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory in our city core.

That’s because its been a home for about 300 low income elderly residents for decades and the staff have been been particularly guarded of their privacy.

As a result, the many space and rooms on the ground floor have been off limits to the general public.

But now that is changing, with a unique collaboration with ASU and Cathedral Development Group, the company that holds the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) contract to house its residents. There is about 15,000 square feet of clinic, office space and event space at the bottom of the Westward Ho, situated such as not to disturb the tenants.

We will get a tour from Michael Shafer, director of the ASU Center for Applied Behavioral Health Policy in the College of Public Service and Community Solutions. The new clinic and space will give tenants access to health care which staff hopes will improve their quality of life, allow ASU students hands-on experience and reduce the large number of 911 calls that have plagued the building.

This property uplift was collaboration costing ASU and Cathedral about $16 million, including plumbing, appliance and energy efficiency upgrades in each unit.

Then, after we’ve toured the Collaboratory, we will mosey up to SoSoBa, on Roosevelt, where owner Tyler Christensen will have some specials and menu samples for us.

If you’ve never heard of SoSoBa, you are going to be glad you join us this month. I’m a fan of the one in Flagstaff and I’m excited to have one down the street from my home here in Phoenix.

Of the inspiration for SoSoBa, Christensen says this is, “not the standard ‘traditional’ ramen shop. This is a full-service restaurant serving uniquely inspired noodle dishes, craft cocktails, beer, wine, and sake.”

“There is no such thing as traditional ramen. There is, however, regional styles of Ramen depending on where and by whom it is made.  Each ‘prefecture‘ in Japan has their own unique and delicious style of Ramen.  Even within a prefecture, there are vendor-specific interpretations of regional Ramen dishes.”

So, this gives Christensen license to innovate and explore new things.

He has reserved the entire outdoor patio for us, which is a special treat in the perfect October Phoenix weather.

I can’t wait!

———

When: Oct 20th at 5:30.
Where: ASU Collaboratory.
Central and Fillmore.
More: We will move to Sosoba at about 6:30 for treats, etc.
Please note that you will probably want to park on the street or paid lot on the east side of Central.
Please get your free ticket here.