Your January Market Update finds the market generally healthy and likely to start the year strong, according to our friends at the Cromford Report.

“There is both good and bad news for first-time home buyers this month.  The good news is that there’s been a 22% increase in single family active listings asking between $175,000-$200,000 over the last 10 weeks, going from 1,065 to 1,295.  Current inventory is 10% higher than where it was in week 49 of last year, adding some much needed choice to a high demand price range.  The added supply is not universal across the valley; increases have been marked specifically in Buckeye, Surprise, Sun City, Peoria and Mesa.”

As you know, we do most of our work in Central Phoenix, North Phoenix, Downtown and East Phoenix (although we work everywhere in Maricopa County). The bad news for first time home buyers in the January Market Update is that this increase in affordable inventory is not as apparent in the sought-after areas of CenPho and downtown. We can only hope that this bubble of apartment building in CenPho will break and we will see some affordable owner-occupied developments in 2017.

Despite the bad news in this category, don’t give up. We know the area really well and we can point first time home buyers to the up-and-coming areas that are more affordable and undergoing redevelopment.

Back to Tina Tamboer at the Cromford Report:

“The bad news for home buyers is that supply overall is down 3.7% while the level of competing buyers is remaining seasonally consistent.  The Southeast Valley specifically has not seen the typical increase in supply that happens this time of year.  This indicates that the area will kick off 2017 with low supply just before the expected increase in buyer activity come February.  In this case, the cost of waiting to purchase will be a lack of choice and possibly having to compromise on the condition or location of the property they choose to buy.”

For Sellers in this January Market Update:

“Bad news for buyers usually translates into good news for sellers, especially after positive news reports of Realtor.com ranking Phoenix as the #1 projected real estate market in the country for 2017.  However, it’s still not a market to be overpriced regardless of the strong demand for homes.  Some price ranges have more competing listings than others, especially in areas such as North Phoenix, Mesa, Gilbert and Peoria where there is competition from new home subdivisions.  Permits for single family homes have been on the rise to accommodate the demand.  This provides more choice for buyers in those areas, balances out the market and keeps annual appreciation in check.  The areas projected to have the highest appreciation rates are those where there is a high level of fix and flip activity along with a more affordable price range under $175,000.”

In the end, we can help you navigate this new year –whether you are buying or selling. Just give Ken a call at 602-456-9388.

…paper butterfly, not included. Do not use to oil trees. They don’t like it.

Your cleaning tip for the month comes from our friends at Going Green House Cleaning.

The word of the month is Tea Tree Oil.

Okay, that’s three words. Whatever. You know what I mean.

There is a reason they call it “medicine chest in a bottle.”

Tea tree oil, also known as melaleuca, is an essential oil with a plethora of uses! It is known to treat a variety of medical conditions and records show it’s been used for thousands of years. Whether you need it for cleaning or to treat acne, tea tree oil should be something in everyone’s medicine cabinet! Here are a few ways you can use this versatile oil:

1. Topically: always dilute with a carrier oil like coconut oil for a 1:1 ratio before applying to skin
2. Aromatically: use an oil diffuser or directly inhale it
3. DO NOT ingest: tea tree oil should not be taken by mouth for any reason. It is poisonous if ingested, and side effects can include dizziness and digestive issues.

If you want to use your tea tree oil for cleaning, there are many fantastic ways to do that!

• Mildew: mix 1 cup vinegar with 25 drops melaleuca in a spray bottle. Spritz on mildew and let it sit for 10 minutes. Wipe with a damp cloth. It is a natural mold fighter!
• All-purpose cleaner: mix 1 quart of warm water with 15 drops melaleuca in a spray bottle. (DO NOT use on granite or marble)
• Laundry: add 1 teaspoon of melaleuca to your wash. This will help prevent bacteria and fungal infections because of the oil’s antifungal properties.
• Purifying air: place a few drops of this oil in a diffuser to disinfect and deodorize the air. It is also said to reduce anxiety and help with sleep.
• Bathroom scrub: use 10-15 drops tea tree oil, water, vinegar, baking soda, and castile soap.
• Toilets bowls: ½ cup baking soda, a few drops of tea tree oil, and ½ cup peroxide. Scrub with a toilet brush then leave it set until someone uses the bathroom.
• Carpet freshener: mix ½ cup baking soda with 20-40 drops of tea tree oil and another great smelling oil of your choice. (if you have pets, we advise you stay away from tea tree oil though) Mix together in a shaker container and let permeate for 24 hours. Sprinkle lightly over carpet, allowing it to sit for 15 minutes, then vacuum.

And these are just the ways melaleuca can freshen up your home! Tea tree oil is an amazing, versatile substance that not only can clean up your home, but can soothe a burn or remove ticks. Definitely something you want to have in your medicine cabinet at all times!

Source: MSNBC

Here is more on deportation from the Phoenix market. In a previous post, I touched on how plans to deport millions of undocumented residents could impact the real estate market in Phoenix.

I told you that we are not likely to see any mass movement any time soon.

But there is one shift that could happen if there is deportation from the Phoenix market, and it has to do with jobs and interest rates, nationally. You’ll want to keep an eye on this.

First, know that the unemployment rate just hit the lowest in 9 years on December 2nd, 2016. That is good, over-all. It does not mean that everybody is fully-employed or that they improving wages. But, it is better than it has been.

But it means that the Federal Reserve Bank is watching out to make certain that the economy is not about to overheat. What happens with full employment? When there is full-employment, employees begin to demand higher wages and that puts up-ward pressure on inflation. So, the Fed raises interest rates to slow that growth, reduce wages and inflation.

So, as reported on the Marketplace Morning Report today, if a Trump presidency is able to deport millions of workers just at a time when the economy needs them, unemployment will reduce further, and the Fed will be pushed to increase interest rates even further to slow inflation.

That could affect the housing market, too.

I know, all of this is highly speculative. But my point is that you will want to watch what happens in this sector to see what could happen in the housing market in late 2017.

In good news, Phoenix is expected to be the top market in the country in 2017. I take this with a grain of salt, as you might guess.

“We don’t expect the outcome of the election to have a direct impact on the health of the housing market or economy as we close out 2016. However, the 40 basis points increase in rates in the days following the election has caused us to increase our interest rate prediction for next year,”   –Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Realtor.com in Phoenix Biz Journal, Nov 30, 2016

We will be keeping an eye on the market and the political landscape. If you have questions about how this might affect you, give us a call at 602-456-9388.

The December 2016 Market Update is based on the latest numbers from November. Our friends at the Cromford Report provide us with the most reliable data to share with you.

“After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained a lot of upward momentum over the last 2 months. However that upward momentum is petering out now and increases in the rest of the year are likely to be modest. Nevertheless it still seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.

For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $145.44 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.8% from the $142.84 we now measure for October 15.

On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $147.84, up 0.2% from the reading for October 15.

Our mid-point forecast in the December Market Update for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $145.81, which is 0.2% above the November 15 reading.

Currently we are seeing additional supply arriving for the West Valley, especially Surprise, while supply in parts of the Southeast Valley is becoming tighter, especially in Chandler. On its own this change is likely to cool average pricing a little because the future sales mix will slightly favor the cheaper homes in the West Valley which sell extremely quickly.”

What does this mean for you? Well, I think prices will continue to rise, generally, and specifically in the CenPho and historic neighborhoods. There are few new houses being built in this area and people still want to live more centrally.

While there is increased pressure on the Federal Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, especially with news that we just hit the lowest unemployment rate in 9 years on December 2nd, even a one-point increase in interest rates probably won’t slow that demand. We are already at historically-low levels. So, we would be at “historically low + 1%.”

So, if you are looking to sell, I would do that between January and June, before any possible negative outcomes from an aggressive Trump immigration policy might take hold. Plus, that is the busiest time of the year. Please see my post on that issue, here.

If you are looking purchase, I would do that sooner, rather than later. If prices are going up and interest rates are going up, you could get hit with a double-whammy.

Give us a call and we can help you build the best strategy, 602-456-9388.

So, were you waiting for the election to purchase a home?

Well, the election is over and people are asking me whether its safe to purchase a home, or whether we should expect market turmoil under our new president.

They’ve seen stories like this one from the Arizona Republic, which speaks to scarcity in the housing market and makes a tenuous tie to the presidential election.

Here’s another article from Slate indicating that people have been putting off major buying decisions due to the election. While I’m sure some people have held off on major decisions, we have not seen that among our clients. We’ve been busy!

Even so, if folks have been waiting for the election to decide until now, we will know it in about a month. If monthly sales numbers bounce, then you will know that people are re-entering the market. I’ll look back in about a month and let you know what we see. If you are inclined to believe that people have been waiting to act, then you will want to act before that bounce happens.

More than anything, let me put these fears to rest: the real estate market is not likely to undergo some serious upheaval any time soon.

First, here’s some advice that I found to be accurate in this article, which really points to how short-term fears about a presidential election might benefit a few, but are not a good reason to act quickly for most. Here’s the key take-away quote:

“I don’t think it’s a wise idea to try to time any markets, especially housing,” says real estate expert Kurt Westfield at WCE Equity Group. “Housing markets are very localized, subject to microeconomic shifts. The election takes place on a much larger macroeconomic scale.”

Second, let’s talk about the nature of the real estate market and why you should not act in haste. Nor should you hold off if you need to buy or sell. In other words, just act on your housing needs as they are today.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that the markets move very slowly. I know. It did not feel that way in 2008 when people’s homes seemed to lose value in months. But, when you look at that data, it still took months, not days or weeks for major movements to take place.

Sure, you will see small changes around the end-of-year holidays when people are focussed family and parties, but that’s an annual deal and does not change the market too much.

The thing you should most be aware of in the short term (3-6 months) is interest rates. While they are still historically low and probably won’t jump too quickly, a one percent increase represents a lot of money over the life of a loan. We know that the Federal Reserve Bank is talking about interest rate increases, so we encourage you to speak with your lender about what he or she is seeing.

In other words, don’t hit the panic button on interest rates. Just keep an eye on it. Make your decision based on what you need when you need it.

Let’s turn for a second to the long-term view (18 months to 2 years) just so I can make one point about Donald Trump’s threats to deport 11 million people. If his threats are carried out in whole or in part, then you will definitely see a major hit to our real estate market, according to Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report.

I want to be careful here and temper that previous comment. That is IF he can forcibly deport people or IF they choose to leave on their own. And even then, the affects would be seen 3-6 months after he takes action.

According to Tina, we would see a dramatic increase in supply of homes (as people move away) at the same time we would see a huge reduction in demand (as immigrants would no longer purchase homes). Yes, immigrants own homes.

But this would also impact those folks who own rental properties. Many of whom voted for our next president. Further, according to Tina, the impact would not be localized to certain neighborhoods. The impact would be valley-wide.

In the even longer term, according to Tina, Arizona’s population is aging quickly and we don’t have younger people to replace the aging population who can afford to purchase homes.  Otherwise in the next 15-20 years we will have a huge excess of homes and prices will depress significantly.

This means that we need to find some solution to the immigration issue, which allows immigration in to Arizona.

You know, the very thing that the next president ran against.

We can help you make the right decision on your sale or purchase. Contact us at 602-456-9388.

If you live in APS territory, you’ll want to take note of this:

From: Media Relations (MediaRelations)

Sent: Wednesday, October 26, 2016 1:13 PM

Subject: CONSUMER ALERT: NEW SCAM TARGETING APS CUSTOMERS STATEWIDE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 26, 2016

Consumer Alert:

New Scam Targeting APS Customers STATEWIDE

90 incidents reported in last 10 days

PHOENIX – APS issued a warning today about a new scam where criminals

masquerading as APS employees are calling customers demanding immediate

payment of their electric bill under the threat of having their power turned

off. Potential victims are instructed to purchase prepaid cards in a

specific amount, and then call a special number to make the payment. In some

instances, the call back number goes to an automated phone system that acts

and sounds like the actual APS Customer Care Center.

While it is impossible to know how many customers have been targeted or have

fallen for the scam, APS security has received reports of more than 90

incidents across the state in the past 10 days. APS encourages customers who

have been targeted to report the incident to local law enforcement along

with APS at (602) 371-7171 or (800) 240-2014 (outside metro-Phoenix).

To keep customers from becoming a victim of consumer scams, APS provides the

following guidance<https://support.aps.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/175>:

*         APS never requires payment via a prepaid card.

*         The only valid phone numbers to call the APS Customer Care Center

are listed on customer bills and at aps.com<http://www.aps.com/>.

*         If there is ever a question about the validity of an email,

website or person claiming to be an APS representative, call the APS

Customer Care Center immediately at (602) 371-7171 to verify this

information.

*         Recognize the signs of a phishing email: mismatched fonts, missing

hyperlinks, improper grammar and misspellings.

*         Never share credit card information with an unverified source.

Customers who pay by credit card at aps.com<http://www.aps.com/> will be

directed to the KUBRA EZ-Pay website, which asks them to enter a “captcha”

validation code. A “captcha” typically uses a set of letters and numbers

that the user is required to manually retype and submit. Any other credit

card payment site is fraudulent and should not be used.

APS<http://www.aps.com/> serves about 2.7 million people in 11 of Arizona’s

15 counties, and is the Southwest’s foremost producer of clean, safe and

reliable electricity. Using a balanced energy mix that is nearly 50 percent

carbon-free, APS has one of the country’s most substantial renewable energy

portfolios, and owns and operates the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station,

the country’s top power producer and largest producer of carbon-free energy.

The company is also a proven leader in introducing technology and services

that offer customers choice and control over their energy consumption. With

headquarters in Phoenix, APS is the principal subsidiary of Pinnacle West

Capital Corp.<http://www.pinnaclewest.com> (NYSE: PNW).

Media Contact:

Steven Gotfried

(602) 250-3040

Website:

You are not going to want to miss this month’s Get Your PHX event. I know many of you have been watching the FOUND:RE, downtown’s newly-opened boutique lifestyle hotel, being built over the last couple years, right along side the second phase of Portland on the Park.

The old hotel stood for years in disrepair and developer Tim Sprague has put together a concept that is perfect for the urban art core that we’ve been working toward for decades in Phoenix. Found:re makes art its core mission, from original art in every room to the way the beds, lights and room dividers are constructed.

Almost everything you see is locally-sourced and locally made. We are not going to publish pictures here of the rooms because you have to see these yourself to believe it.

We will get a tour of the rooms, a suite, the conference facilities, the new restaurant Match, the the pool-side lounge. Each of these features original art that is curated by Mike Oleskow, in constant rotation. You won’t see chintzy paintings of the ocean, still hanging around from the 1960s, passing as artwork. You will see original art from local artists, some of whom also work in the hotel. In fact, most of the art that you see on the walls is also for sale; either in original form or as prints that you can see hung in the guest rooms.

The hotel’s restaurant, MATCH Cuisine & Cocktails, offers Executive Chef Akos Szabos’ take on shareable plates with an international twist, and a creative, thoughtful bar program.

I had a chance to eat at Match during a soft opening a few weeks ago. The food was amazing and beautifully presented. We were told during our tour that Match is going to start hosting Sunday brunches, which I’m particularly excited about since I’ll be able to walk there from my home.

So, this month, you are going to get a very exclusive tour (yes, we are capping attendance at this event at 100 participants) of the hotel, the rooms and the facilities. You will hear from Tim Sprague personally about his vision and the road he traveled to make this a reality. You will get to meet the art curator, Mike Oleskow and you will get to taste samples of the restaurants new menu.

You can’t just drop in on this one. We need you to sign up through our Google spreadsheet because attendance is limited on this one!

Please sign up at this free ticket link.

What: Get Your PHX at the The FOUND:RE
When: November 17th at 5:30 to about 7:30
Where: 1100 N Central in Phoenix
Facebook Invite Page

A couple months ago, we covered how to clean your microwave oven (in the green way) in time for your new showing so that prospective buyers won’t run screaming when they see the tiny civilization that has grown inside.

This month: how to clean your oven naturally and efficiently before the turkey takes over and makes you start all over again.

Well, I guess you could wait until after Thanksgiving, but this is so easy, you might not want to.

Our friend at Going GreenHouse cleaning service, April Prothero, tells us not to hit the self clean button on your oven right before Turkey Day.

That’s a bad idea, she says, and here’s why: self-clean cycles can be hard on your oven especially if it’s an older one. This may cause your oven to completely burn out and break down before your houseguests even have a chance to taste some of your perfectly cooked turkey—leaving you in panic.

But before you reach for the extremely harsh chemical storm of spray oven cleaners, check out her recipe for a natural and efficient oven cleaner to get your oven spic-and-span for the big holiday–with a little elbow grease of course.

All you need are a few items that are probably sitting around your house already:

• baking soda
• water
• white vinegar (for later)
• rubber gloves
• damp dish cloth
• spatula
• spray bottle

1. After removing the oven racks and anything else inside, mix up your cleaning paste. In a small bowl, mix ½ cup of baking soda with a few table spoons of water. Adjust the ratio of both as needed until you have a spreadable paste (usually about 3 tablespoons of water).
2. Spread this paste all over the interior of your oven, paying special attention to the greasier areas. Do not coat the heating elements. Let this sit for at least 12 hours, or overnight.
3. After 12 hours, take your damp cloth and wipe out as much of the dried on paste as possible. Use a spatula to help scrape off excess paste.
4. Put a little vinegar in a spray bottle and spray everywhere you see leftover baking soda residue. This will cause it to foam. Use your damp cloth to wipe away the rest of the foamy mixture its created. Add more vinegar and water as needed to clean it away.
5. Lastly, replace your oven racks and BAM! Clean, shiny oven!

This method may require a little sweat and elbow grease, but at least your nose hairs are still intact and you’re not struggling to breathe through harsh chemicals. Your oven will be perfectly prepared so you can put your guests into a turkey induced tryptophan coma!

And if you’re not in the mood to sweat, remember, you can always call April and the Going Greenhouse gang to schedule a special cleaning to include your oven.

We check in again with our friends at the Cromford Report for another market update.

Each month about this time they look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well their forecasting techniques performed. They also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

Important take-aways…

“For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $142.45 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.2% from the $139.37 we now measure for September 15.”

“After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained upward momentum and it seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.”

Anecdotally, Michelle and I are seeing a lot of activity. If you list it, price it well and prepare it to show nicely, it will sell quickly.

We are seeing listings that go under contract stay under contract. So, cancelled listings are pretty rare, at least in the CenPho and historic areas.

We are still concerned that the market is over-building apartments and ignoring the needs of moderate-income folks who want to live centrally. In other words, we need more owner-occupied. We don’t say this because we want to sell them all. But we know that neighborhoods need a good diversity, even if more folks are choosing not to purchase.

Interest rates continue to stay low, and people are taking advantage of it.

The historic areas have seen a steady upward climb in prices. People are getting solid financing, so we don’t expect the troubles of 2008. There will always be market corrections, but we feel confident that CenPho and Downtown will stay strong because there is a country-wide trend toward living in urban cores.

If you are thinking of selling or buying, please contact us at 602-456-9388. We will help you get the information you need for the right decision the first time.

I’m proud that my city is working on new ways to recycle and support up-start businesses at the same time.

Here is their RFP announcement, which calls for innovators who may be able to start new businesses around our waste stream. This is the kind of leadership we need to get serious about waste.

Go Phoenix!

——————

New RFP

The City of Phoenix has issued the Transforming Trash into Resources II Request for Proposals (RFP).  We’re looking for trash innovators who can transform carpeting, latex paint and urban wood into new products or reuse them for a new purpose.  The RFP is posted at www.phoenix.gov/solicitations/846.  All questions about this active RFP must be submitted in writing to Robyn.Skramstad@phoenix.gov 

Recent RFPs

Since our last update email, the City has made progress on the following RFPs:

• Community Outreach and Awareness Services RFP – the City has contracted with Recyclebank, LLC to assist the City in educating residents about our solid waste programs, including recycling and green organics, through Recyclebank’s rewards program.
• Palm Fronds Diversion RFP – the City is in contract negotiations with Palm Silage Arizona, LLC, which will transform palm fronds into livestock feed.
• Compost Facility and Temporary Mulching Area Operator/Manager RFP – the City is in contract negotiations with We Care Organics LLC, which will manage the City’s compost facility.

Upcoming RFPs

The City anticipates issuing the following RFPs:

• Textile Diversion Services RFP
• Materials Exchange Program RFP
• Anaerobic Digester RFP (feasibility study underway)
• Landfill Gas RFP (feasibility study underway)
• Boxes and Packing Materials Diversion RFP
• Recycled Plastics (#1 – #2) Diversion RFP
• Recycled Paper Diversion RFP
• Recycled Plastics (#3 – #7) Diversion to Liquid Fuel RFP

This article is a little old on the subject, but it gives you some good background.