I’ve been driving by the old building at about 2nd Ave and Camelback for years and I was never sure what it was. Was it a hotel? Was it an office? Well, its going to be Arrive Phoenix, by Vintage Partners, who are well known for the redevelopment efforts at Uptown Plaza.

The plan, according to this article, is to build a stylish boutique hotel and dining destination. It is nice to see that the developers (from California) teamed up with the developers of The Newton, Windsor and Churn, and The Orchard, Venue Projects.

The $20M project is another testimony to the importance of adaptive re-use. I’m a fan of adaptive re-use over new-build because renovating an old building is about 90% more earth friendly than building a completely new building. We need more of that these days. Congrats, Arrive Phoenix!

According to the article, Arrive Phoenix will “combine both buildings into a singular and striking 79-room property. Arrive Phoenix will also host a boutique coffee shop, a poolside taco bar, a gourmet ice creamery, and a nautical-themed rooftop craft cocktail bar featuring sweeping 360-degree city views.

Did you catch that bit about the gourmet ice creamery? I guess that means we will have three ice cream shops in a 1/2 mile radius, unless they move Churn in here.

This development speaks again to where the central Phoenix housing market is going. If you are living in the area of this development, you are doing to be in a good place in the long-run.

Now, let’s see if we can find some space for more owner-occupied properties in walking distance to this development. As we say, its not just about in-fill. Its also about walkability.

If you are thinking of moving in to the area, call us quickly at 602-456-9388, and prices will probably go up once this gets in place.

I toured Matt Seaman’s new development, McKinley Row on 4th Ave and McKinley (MetroWest Development).

First, I’m a big fan of Matt. He is one of the few developers in downtown who is focusing on owner occupied properties on in-fill, walkable parcels. While most other large developers can’t get their heads out of the 1,000+ unit mentality, Matt knows that the future of development will be in finding ways to fill in the many small spaces in Phoenix.

Did you know that 43% of Phoenix is made up of empty lots? Let’s use those for housing, rather than sprawling out in to our beautiful desert, thus causing longer commutes and more pollution.

Matt and I were talking about how the Phoenix push to build apartments over the last ten years crowded out those who want to build owner-occupied properties, but also made it difficult for moderate income folks to afford to live downtown. Part of the problem comes from the investors, who don’t like to back condo projects due to potential lawsuit liability issues.

But, I digress. In short, we have a problem in housing and we need more folks like Matt who can build owner-occupied homes and who can find lower cost ways to build homes for folks in dense urban areas.

I’m not one of those agents who believes that everybody should own a home. But, at last count, there was at least a 6 to 1 ratio of apartments to owner-occupied downtown. Where will all of those renters go in a few years when they want to buy a home and they are priced out? Who will have a stake in our downtown if they all move out?

I wanted to share with you Matt’s project. With 18 town home units at 4th Ave and McKinley, and a similar project coming next year at 2nd Ave and McKinley, Matt is creating homes for downtowners.

Matt tells me that McKinley Row is half sold now, with town homes selling as low as the $390s and as high as the $500s.

Have a look at the photos below. They are just my photos. If you want to see the snazzy photos with the CGI furniture in the rooms, have a look at their website.

The photos below illustrate a few features that I thought were unique.

If you are interested in town house living, please give us a call at 602-456-9388. We’ve represented clients on Matt’s projects before, so give us a call.

MetroWest did a good job of setting back the projects, as required by historic preservation. They’ve left green space and space to enjoy the neighborhood.

These are the massive windows in the corner unit, which you can see from the inside in the next photo. Great views of downtown!

Here are those windows from the inside. That’s a nice view to wake up to.

I did not get a shot from the outside, but this corner unit, in addition to having corner windows on the ground floor, has a separate entrance that you can make in to an office.

Y’all know that we don’t host the Get Your PHX events every month anymore –just when I’m inspired, as I have been by Midtown Roots.

When I met with the owners of Midtown Roots early in 2017, as they were building out, I thought this would be a good place to host an event.

Midtown Roots is a dispensary with a community-minded philosophy. They not only have an impressive space at the NW corner of Thomas and Central, with 14 bud tenders stations for patients, but they are also opening part of the building as a community space and a space for daily yoga programming. They are open from 8am to 7pm daily.

This impressed me.  I always like it when a business takes in to account the local community. I’ve seen the owners at local community events, too. So, they are doing their best to be out there.

They also took the time to give tours to local elected officials and neighborhood leaders so that everybody knew what was going on. I’ve seen a lot of dispensaries pop up in the last few years and I’ve heard concerns from neighbors about how little they communicate. Not so from what I’ve seen with Midtown Roots.

The whole issue of medical marijuana can be contentious. So, I appreciate when a local business like Midtown Roots takes their job seriously. They seem to have a wholistic approach to the patients who seek the help of medical marijuana.

So you, our loyal Get Your PHX fan, are going to get an exclusive tour of the facility and accurate information about what the law requires of dispensaries.

Join us on November 16th at 5:30 for a tour, snacks and beverages. (No, silly, the snacks will not have THC in them. I knew what you were thinking!)

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS EVENT IS NOT ON OUR USUAL SECOND TO LAST THURSDAY OF NOVEMBER.

Where:  2918 N. Central Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85012
When: November 16th at 5:30
Sign us for a free ticket here.
Facebook: www.facebook.com/events/154740685265505/

I don’t have a crystal ball for this November 2017 Market Update.

I don’t know what is going to happen in the market in 2018.

But I do think it is wise to consider the probabilities. I do think that there will be some kind of market shift in 2018. It may only be 3 to 5 percentage points, but I think the changes are increasing every year.

Why do I say this? First, I’ve heard professional economists saying that the over-all economy is due for an adjustment.

Second, I’m seeing the Cromford Index shifting downward from end of last year.

For you long-time readers, you will remember that the Cromford Index tracks whether we are in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, and by how much. It also precedes market shifts because prices can still be going up while the Cromford Index is trending down. If you look at the chart here, you will see that the seller’s advantage has been weakening since about May. If we see that weakness in January and February, then expect prices to drop a little bit. (Nothing like 2009, by the way.)

Third, the market is crowded with renovation homes right now. Some of them are not that great, by the way. Based on past experience, this seems to be an indication that speculators are crowding the market. When we get too many listings on the market, I think prices will begin to drop.

Fourth, the chatter out there is about quick sales. This is usually a sign of a high market. We had clients who had 15 offers in the first 48 hours of listing their property. Sound familiar?

Our friends at the Cromford Report are not ready to take a stand like this for their November 2017 Market Update. Cromford sees prices strong for next month, expects more listings on the market, which could lower prices at end of year. Here is there take:

“Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $150.21 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up $1.10 or 0.7% from the $149.11 we now measure for September 15.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $152.17, which is 1.7% above the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $149.71 to $155.83.

So we are forecasting the same percentage increase over the next 31 days that we have seen in the average price of pending listings over the past 30 days. This means the third quarter slump is well and truly over and we expect the usual surge in $/SF for the fourth quarter.

Having said that, the actual number of pending listings is lower than usual. Only 2001, 2007 and 2014 saw lower pending listing readings as of October 15, so it appears that the current pricing level is putting a slight damper on demand, at least as far as pending counts is concerned. Sales counts are still looking healthy although the annual sales rate is no longer increasing as it had been a few months ago. This means the market is not expanding as fast as as it was in the first half of 2017. (Emphasis added)

If you are thinking about selling your home, it is a good time to have a deeper look at the data. Give us a call at 602-456-9388 so we can plan ahead and maximize your sale price.

Its time for Phoestivus 2017, this December 14th and 21st.

We have an all-new look, the Return of the Yeti and all the fun and frivolity that you expect from our rag-tag crew of Phoestivonians.

Is that a word?

We will have a new feats of strength. The airing of grievances will again feature live story telling. The Hipster Santa will join us again. And, of course, the Phoestivus pole is still sitting in the middle of it all, watching you to see if you have been naughty or nice.

Check out Phoestivus.com for more information and updates. Vendor applications are closed for this year, by the way.

It seems like every year somebody comes to us in November saying they would like a vendor application. People, please remember that we usually book out by mid October. This is a pretty popular event, y’all!

Phoestivus is one of the best ways for sponsors to address a loyal and targeted audience of about 3,000 people per night.

And, as with every year, this year’s event will be a fundraiser for Community Food Connections, which organizes the Phoenix downtown farmer’s market. The market is one of the few places downtown where you can get locally-gown, whole foods that nourish both our bodies and our community.

Your referrals pay it forward!

In September, we sent donations to the American Red Cross for hurricane relief efforts, thanks to our friends Hunter, Adam and Erin, who referred their friends to us.

When their friends closed on a new home, we circled back and asked what charity they’d like us to support.

Its a simple as that.

The next time you are at a cocktail party, or neighborhood barbecue, and somebody mentions wanting to buy or sell a home, please kindly remember us and you can help support your favorite charity.

Time and again over the years, referrals pay it forward to many different charitable organizations, from One in Ten, to the Nature Conservancy.

Hey, we aren’t the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, by any means. But it feels good to us and to our clients to know that we can do this little thing now and again.

We love our community and we believe that it is important to give back when we can. Can you think of any charitable organizations that you’d like to support with your referral, when you pay it forward?

For the 2017 Market Update, we get some help from the Cromford Report. First, here’s their over-all market analysis. Followed below by my more localized analysis of what we are seeing.

“For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $149.06 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 11 cents or 0.07% from the $149.17 we now measure for August 15.

On September 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $153.13, down 0.7% from the reading for August 15.

So we are forecasting another small decline over the next 30 days. (emphasis added) This is slightly unusual since we normally start to see some upward momentum by the beginning of October. Last year at thistime we predicted an increase and the actual result exceed our prediction. We would therefore not be too surprised if today’s forecast turned out to be too pessimistic.”

I added the emphasis for a completely non-scientific and totally gut feeling reason: I can’t shake the feeling that we are over-due for a market correction in 2018. I’m not talking about the 2009 version of earth-shattering, life savings-draining market crash.

I’m thinking more along the lines of a 3-5% downturn, which will, for all intents and purposes, make the 2018 market look more like that late 2015 market.

But, if you are thinking that prices will continue to go up, I’m starting to feel that this will not be the same.

I could see that prices will remain strong in the dense, hip, urban areas that are so popular right now. But they may not be immune to the correction.

What do I base this on?

Here are some admittedly non-scientific bits of analysis. To be fair, few people often predict the market accurately repeatedly, so there is no such thing as a truly scientific method when it comes to market behavior.

Anyway, here is what I’m seeing:

1. The Cromford Index, which is a good predictor of what the market will be doing 3-6 months from now, seems to be flat or moving slightly downward over the course of the year, as opposed to 2016. This could mean that the market is moving slowly more toward a buyer’s market and away from a seller’s market. Is it a small change and perhaps premature to discuss? Maybe, but I’d rather be ahead of this than behind.
2. The renovation market, which seems to be over 50% of all homes that are active in CenPho and historic neighborhoods, seems to be pushing prices far up above market averages in areas that were pretty rough just a couple years ago. I don’t see entire neighborhoods changing character over night just because a few renovators made an old home look like the interior of a Anthropology outlet at the mall.
3. I hear more potential buyers choosing to wait for another year or two because they just can’t believe that prices in some areas will continue to go up. So, yep, its a whiff of a smell in the air, a wil o wisp. But I’ve heard this before. Buyers are tuned in to this frequency, even if subconsciously.
4. I’m seeing more and more of what I would consider fly-by-night renovation operations that are churning out some pretty terrible products faster than a Double-Double from In and Out Burger.

Its totally a gut feeling on my part. Take it with a grain of salt. But, as a person who owns an investment property, I’m thinking of selling while the market is relatively high. If you bought in 2010 at the lowest point of the market, then this may not be a concern for you. But if you want to cash out, I would start considering a move.

As we often say, the real estate market is not the stock market. Don’t approach it that way. At the same time, you will never know the lowest or highest point. If you buy generally in the trough and sell generally near the peak, it is a good place to be.

If you need help thinking through your specific situation, give us a call at 602-456-9388. 

The Arizona State Fair, the latest book by Phoenix author and historic preservation activist, G.G. George, chronicles the history of Arizona’s State Fair from its origins as a territorial fair in 1884, through the early days of Arizona’s statehood, up to today. The book is filled with 210 historic photographs vividly illustrating the history of the fair, as well as the cast of historical figures who established the fair.

It is her hope that her book, The Arizona State Fair, will serve as a call to action to preserve and restore the Arizona State Fairgrounds – a site that has been an important part of our history since Arizona’s earliest days. As a vocal and effective preservation advocate, Ms. George acknowledges there is much work still to be done.

Ms. George performed an exhaustive search of state and local historical archives, and collected cherished photographs and stories incorporated throughout the book. It details the history of Six Points, at the intersection of McDowell Road, 19^th Avenue, and Grand Avenue. Early developers F.Q. Story, General M. H. Sherman, and Phoenix Mayor John C. Adams, were instrumental in orchestrating the purchase of 80 acres in the Six Points area in 1905.  The location became the site of the Arizona Territorial Fair, which transitioned to the Arizona State Fair after Arizona achieved statehood in 1912.

The book is an engaging historical record of how the fair evolved from a showcase of Arizona’s agricultural roots, when horse races and rodeo events were popular, to its modern incarnation as an exposition and entertainment venue.  Fluctuations in fortune include the cancellation of the fair in1918 during the flu pandemic, and a hiatus in the 1930’s due to lack of financial resources during the Great Depression. The grounds also functioned as a mini-city for hundreds of evacuees from Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Ms. George will participate in a book signing on Saturday, October 14, 2017 at Antiques on Central, 730 E. Missouri Ave., Phoenix from 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. The Arizona State Fair is also available from the author gggfabgal@msn.com  Proceeds are designated for historic preservation.

The Grand Avenue Festival is an annual thing that has grown over the last decade or so.

Its been nice to see it grow organically, as more businesses grow along Grand, but in a way that still respects the arts and local businesses that make the street what it is.

So, for your information, be sure to put the 2017 Grand Avenue Festival on your calendar. The theme this year: “undersea madness.”

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                         Contact: Sahar Mitchell

Production Agency for Participatory Arts

Phone: 602-615-0899

Email: strangefamilycircus@gmail.com

Undersea Madness: The 12th Phoenix Annual Parade of the Arts

(Phoenix, AZ) Grand Avenue Arts & Preservation, Strange Family Circus and PAPA, LLC are proud to present the 12^th Phoenix Annual Parade of the Arts at 6pm on

November 11, 2017. For over a decade, PAPA has brought the community together to celebrate artistic expression in downtown Phoenix. As a free, family friendly event, the parade is a unique pedestrian and bike procession based 100% on audience participation. This year’s theme, “Undersea Madness” will bring out local pirates, mermaids, sailors and pineapple dwelling sponges to Historic Grand Avenue. For a fourth year, the Grand Avenue Festival will bookend the procession.

PAPA is open to all; marchers do not need to register to march unless they plan to compete for prizes. Participants who choose to compete must check in by 5pm at PAPA Headquarters near Bragg’s Pie Factory, 1301 N W Grand Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85007. Contest prizes are broken into five categories: best costume, best float, best decorative bicycle, best kids or pets entry and best group effort. Keeping with PAPA’s policy to promote an ecologically friendly event, participants must be non-motorized.

The public procession lines up at 6pm. The parade, lead once again by local Taiko drummers Fushicho Daiko, will travel from Bragg’s Pie Factory southeastward on Grand Avenue from McKinley. The procession will end at Grand Ave and Polk where it will egress into the backyard of Unexpected Gallery, 734 W Polk Street, Phoenix, AZ  85007 for after hours festivities. As part of the Grand Avenue Festival, participants are encouraged to come early and stay late for the art, music, food, make-and-take crafts, fashion shows and other fun events.

The Phoenix Annual Parade of the Arts unites the arts with the greater community by providing an open-to-the-public, mobile expression of downtown Phoenix life. The free, family event is presented by the Production Agency for Participatory Arts, LLC. PAPA is a New Times Best of Phoenix winner.

Who: The 12^th Phoenix Annual Parade of the Arts (PAPA) at the Grand Avenue Festival

When: November 11, 2017, Procession at 6pm.    

What: Public procession – 2017 Theme “Undersea Madness”

Where: Bragg’s Pie Factory, 1301 N W Grand Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85007 (With procession on Grand Ave)  

For more information, visit www.phoenixannualparadeofthearts.com, strangefamilycircus@gmail.com

Follow us on facebook, twitter or call 602-615-0899 for more information.

Images available upon request

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