I told y’all last month how I am winding down the real estate business over the next 9 months.
Luckily, I am able to work remotely to do my work on the clean energy transition.
That freedom to work remotely has me thinking. After 26 years in Phoenix, it may be about time for me to move out of Arizona. But I’m not 100% sure and I’m asking you to come along as I decide.
I’m starting a 2-month, remote work, van life tour with my dog Ellie, and I’m going to document it all on YouTube, Facebook, with teasers on Instagram (since they won’t let me publish full videos).
Have a look at my short kickoff video and, as they say, “punch that like button and subscribe”. I’ve published another since then, with all of the following installments landing every Sunday.
I’m also transitioning my old monthly real estate newsletter into something more like a Substack, with news on the trip, and comments on Arizona real estate and politics.
And, since I’m also closing down my real estate business later this year, there will be less sales content.
That is all. I really hope you join me and I value your thoughts as I answer this big question.
Per my previous comment about reporting important policy issues to you. Here are some things that most people miss, or that polluters are happy when the public misses.
Solar for All. As part of the ground-breaking Inflation Reduction Act, Arizona will get $156 million that can be used to improve access to rooftop and neighborhood-scale solar generation for all Arizonans. The Solar for All Arizonans program plans to deploy just over 61 MW of new solar resources throughout the state, benefitting thousands of low-income families, renters, and rural and Tribal communities. The innovative Solar for All Arizonans program will provide numerous benefits for families throughout Arizona, including over $164 million in bill savings for participating families. Additionally, over 300 rural households will benefit from solar plus battery systems for their homes, protecting them from electricity service disruption.
The Climate Commission. There is a direct tie between the Arizona Corporation Commission, power companies and climate change generally and public health specifically. It probably seems obvious to my readers, but polls show that most people don’t see this connection. In fact several hundred thousand voters don’t vote all the way down the ballot where the Corporation Commission candidates are listed. If more people knew that the Corporation Commission really is the “climate commission”, I know they would vote in those elections. See this great article from the Arizona Public Health Association for examples of how the Corporation Commission affect you very directly.
Phoenix Air Quality. While Gila, Maricopa, Pima and Pinal counties, were given an “F” for air quality from the American Lung Association in their annual report last month, our public utilities are pushing forward with plans to build as much as 4,000 megawatts of new dirty methane gas power plants. Most of these plants are, or will be, in areas that are failing to meet clean air standards already, or are populated by marginalized communities. 84% of Arizonans live in areas with unhealthy air. A combination of renewable energy, batteries and utility-funded home energy efficiency incentives could clean the air.
Former mayor, famed champion of historic properties in Arizona, and long-time fighter of dark money, Terry Goddard is announcing the opening of the Monroe Street Abbey. The new location will be an indoor/outdoor event space, which will activate a corner that has been sitting empty for decades.
Congratulations to everyone involved. From their public announcements of the opening:
Build in 1929, the Abbey is listed on the National Register of Historic Properties. In 1984, a huge fire destroyed the roof, but courageous fire fighting saved the rest of the building. Eventually the wall supports were removed, and the building was prepared for demolition.
Fortunately, Housing Opportunity Center, an Arizona not for profit corporation, secured a short-term loan from the National Trust for Historic Preservation and put the property into escrow just hours before demolition was to start. Since that day, there have been many plans for the restoration and adaptive reuse of this landmark.
But the ideas always come back to a Garden in a Ruin, a new purpose literally rising from the ashes of the old. The current plan combines the best of the prior suggestions, a mix of food and beverage services within stately walls, private events and public functions for our enjoyment in an environment unique in Arizona and the Southwest.
The Courtyard: The centerpiece of the Abbey was the church’s sanctuary, a room that could seat as many as 1,400 congregants on the main floor and the steeply slopped balcony. The fire brought down the beautiful, high pitched Spanish tile roof and made the large inside room an outside garden. Designed more as a performance theater, what is now the Courtyard had a formal proscenium arch and a double curtain over two stories high. This stage area was lit from above and designed for choral performance. Even without a roof, the acoustics in the Courtyard are excellent.
The Abbey Café: The former Chapel forms a unique space for a full service restaurant where diners can enjoy the quiet breezeway between the Abbey and the apartments next door or take their food and drink in the Abbey Courtyard. 2,500 square feed with kitchen and two designated restrooms. The Bell Tower: The tower space on the first and second floors provides the chance for a coffee and a sweet or a light refreshment with a unique view of the City on one side and the Abbey Courtyard on the other.
I became a realtor in 2008, when you had to be one hammer short of a tool box to want to be a realtor.
But I learned to be scrappy and soon after joined forces with my amazing business partner, Michelle Conley. Together, we’ve done hundreds of transactions together with many repeat clients.
But my deeper love has always been public policy, especially around climate, environment, human rights and voter rights.
Since my election loss since 2018, I’ve found a way to work on those issues with amazing people, and it’s taken more and more of my time.
Further, as the real estate market has been eaten up by mega-brokerages, greedy investors buying residential homes and corporate short-term rentals, the market has shrunk for the people agents really should be working for.
If you are a regular reader of this newsletter and/or one of our clients, this is what you can still expect:
Michelle will continue to be available for most buyers and sellers. So, if you contact me with a need, I will refer you to Michelle. If she can’t help you, we have a list of amazing agents who can.
Until my current subscription to the Cromford Report end in September, I’ll share some of their monthly analysis.
I’ll definitely keep you posted on cool things like Phoestivus, and any special news that our fellow Phoenix lovers might share.
I still won’t crowd your inbox more than once per month.
Here’s how things will be different:
Expect more insights and reflection on policy and politics in Arizona. Heck, my newsletter has been moving that way anyway. So, you’ll see more, and hopefully more in-depth analysis. I’ll still throw in some thoughts on real estate and housing.
In June I’ll be launching a 12-week van life tour of the western states. I’ll be seeing the sights that I never got to see when I was running for office or starting a business. I’ll also be interviewing people who are doing inspiring things around sustainability, climate change and community. More on that later.
So, that’s it, folks. If you’ve been getting this newsletter for the real estate and local events, I won’t be offended if you unsubscribe.
But I hope you stick with it for a bit. I hope to share insights and experiences that enrich your life. My life has certainly been enriched by writing this newsletter for you every month since 2008.
The price of our listing in midtown has come down a bit and the sellers are very reasonable, though not in a rush. So, have a look.
520 W. Clarendon Ave, Unit G2. $282,000, 2br/1.75 ba, 1,320sf. There are a few pristine co-op apartments still in central and downtown Phoenix. Most were built in the 1960s and only a few maintain that mid-century charm. This is one of them. But, on top of that, the owners of this unit opened up the kitchen since and completely remodeled since they purchased the home in 2021. This home is being sold with all of the unique furniture, as an option for the buyer. This secure community is just steps from dining, light rail and shopping. You can lounge in the pool or chill in the historic commons knowing that your investment is being maintained and cared for as a co-op uniquely is. See the listing and more photos here.
2033 West Elm. Listed at $279,000, 2br/1.75ba, 1,260sf. Under Contract! This patio home is very affordable in a high market, and very convenient to Central Phoenix, as well as to multiple modes of transportation. The owner has completed a list of repairs and updates to the property and the community is stable and walkable, with lush grassy areas and trees. Updated flooring, updated kitchen and appliances and updated bathrooms.
Many of the tens of thousands of people moving to Arizona are moving because of the growth in the electric vehicle, clean energy and battery manufacturing industry. After all, Arizona is now an auto manufacturing state.
(Take that, Detroit.)
That means your property value is going up as the demand for housing continues.
I wanted to take a moment and make it very clear that we have President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to thank for that.
For whatever reason, media is not reporting on these huge benefits that the President won from a hostile congress.
The IRA set aside billions in investment dollars and tax credits to match private money for all kinds of clean energy manufacturing and infrastructure. See this link for a breakdown of where those jobs are going in Arizona, specifically.
If you’ve lived in Arizona for long, you know that our rural towns suffer from high unemployment. So much of this growth is going to rural Arizona. See this example of how EV and battery manufacturing is bringing jobs to Arizona.
I’ve said it before. Investments like this affect the real estate market and your home directly.
Climate Change seems so overwhelming that it almost freezes us in place.
But it does not have to be that way.
You can do with your vote and your wallet by standing up to the utilities and supporting those who want reform.
Utilities like APS, SRP and TEP make money selling electrons to us with a mark-up. So, why would they want to support solar and batteries on your home?
That’s bad, but we could fix that that if only we had a corporation commission that would hold them to higher standards. But we don’t. The current, MAGA-dominated corporation commission is now considering dismantling the requirements we put in place in 2008 that push the utilities to meet carbon reduction standards.
Just as a reminder, the production of power from fossil fuels wastes millions of gallons of water per year in Arizona.
The Corporation Commission also directed APS to add fees to those of its customers who have solar panels.
Meanwhile SRP continues to throttle residential solar and they have plans to add over 4,000 megawatts of dirty methane gas power generation. Remember, methane gas is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon alone.
Please take a moment to research the SRP Clean Team, a crew of citizens who are very close to getting a majority of SRP board seats in elections happening right now. Many people don’t know that SRP has an elected board. Learn about that here, including maps of voting territories. If you own a home in current (and some past) SRP territory, you may have a right to vote. Register here.
There are also three candidates running for the Corporation Commission who all want to reform the commission. People don’t know that the Corporation Commission has more control than any other elected office to decide our climate fate. The Corporation Commission is the “climate commission” when it comes to clean energy.
The Oh My Ears (OME) New Music Festival is an annual event where we invite unique and adventurous ensembles, solo artists, and projects to perform works by modern composers.
The OME Festival has historically featured its performers in an eclectic variety of venues, from traditional concert halls to art galleries, bars, and cafes.
This year they will be at Phoenix College and Cibo’s Carriage House. OME is proud to be a presenter of new music in Phoenix for 10 years.
It says a lot about what it takes to sell an all-cash co-op, versus a traditional home, which you can purchase with a loan. Co-op properties stay on the market for much longer, as you are waiting for a buyer to come with all cash. Whereas our new listing in the Garfield neighborhood, was listed on Saturday and we have an accepted offer now, chosen from multiple offers.
It’s a shame, because co-op properties are often meticulously-maintained and offer a very stable alternative, especially if you travel a lot.
The price of our listing in midtown has come down a bit and the sellers are very reasonable, though not in a rush. So, have a look.
520 W. Clarendon Ave, Unit G2. $284,000, 2br/1.75 ba, 1,320sf. There are a few pristine co-op apartments still in central and downtown Phoenix. Most were built in the 1960s and only a few maintain that mid-century charm. This is one of them. But, on top of that, the owners of this unit opened up the kitchen since and completely remodeled since they purchased the home in 2021. This home is being sold with all of the unique furniture, as an option for the buyer. This secure community is just steps from dining, light rail and shopping. You can lounge in the pool or chill in the historic commons knowing that your investment is being maintained and cared for as a co-op uniquely is. See the listing and more photos here.
1423 E McKinley St. Listed at $339,000, 2br/1ba, 686sf. This property has the beauty of a historic bungalow and the money saving features that you will appreciate for years. The buyer can apply for the historic district property tax reduction AND the property is already zoned for two residences. With a large back yard, RV gate and full RV hookup, there is plenty of room to grow. The covered patio in the back houses an outdoor kitchen, a super efficient heat pump water heater, an RO water system and laundry. The property saves huge amounts of water with low flow fixtures, a front-loading washer, low water-use plants and a grey water system that feeds trees. Not to mention the PV solar system, extra attic insulation, high efficiency HVAC, remote thermostat, insulated floor, double pane windows and recently-remodeled kitchen with induction range.
I think that, while we are not in recovery mode, we are starting to see the outlines of it on the horizon. Active listings are coming up, and hopefully that will slow price growth a little going forward. For now, though, listings under contract are not as high as we’d like them to be.
Here are the basics from The Cromford Report – “the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2024 compared with March 1, 2023:
Active Listings: 16,568 versus 14,739 last year – up 12% – and up 6.4% from 15,574 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,720 versus 5,706 last year – up 0.2% – and up 29% from 4,435 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $293.70 versus $271.11 last year – up 8.3% – and up 1.7% from $288.74 last month
This set of numbers is a little disappointing, but by no means disastrous. On the bright side, closed listing counts for February 2024 managed to exceed February 2023, but only by 0.2%. This is not the recovery in volume that so many are impatiently hoping for. Also brighter, sales pricing performed better than anticipated and was up 1.7% from last month based on the monthly average sales price per square foot. The monthly median sale price rose by $10,000 too. However the rate at which contracts are getting signatures is lower than we expected and much lower than normal. We are starting March with only 8,693 listings under contract, down 4.6% from this time last year. And last year was well below normal.
The slow contract signing rate means active listing counts have continued to grow steadily, up by 2,000 since the start of the year. Last year we saw a fall of over 1,500 over the same period, because new supply was much scarcer then. It was the decline in supply that allowed us to scoff a year ago when Goldman Sachs published their ludicrous forecast that Arizona home prices would fall to 2008 levels in 2023. That certainly proved they had no idea what they were talking about. Prices are now up 8.3% from this time last year.
There is still no sign of a market crash in the short or medium term, but the market is struggling to gain traction. The healthy amount of incoming supply is not quite matched by a small improvement in demand and the balance between sellers and buyers only favors sellers by a small amount when considering the market as a whole. In many sectors of the market, buyers have more negotiating room, even though, judging by the recent price movements, most of them do not seem to realize this.
by homes under $1 million still have a tight supply and buyers outnumber sellers in most of these areas.
Market conditions are currently quite stable, so the idea that some sort of collapse is imminent is extremely far-fetched. However conditions can and often do change with little notice, so it is always worth to keeping a close eye on the key numbers.”
