May 2015 Market Forecast
Our friends at the Cromford Report are predicting a slight decrease in prices across the valley in June, over May.
But, first, we saw impressive price increases since March.
“For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $136.34 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 2.2% above the $133.42 we now measure for April 15 and represents the second month in a row with a significant increase in average pricing.”
Cromford folks are predicting a small correction for June. This makes intuitive sense to me, as the market slows a little bit going in to the summer months. Of course, that is anecdotal.
“Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $134.54, which is 1.3% lower than the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.85 to $137.23. Our forecast this month is therefore for a small correction after strong moves higher in sales pricing over the last two months.”
The interesting thing to think about for me will be whether we maintain this tight market of homes through the summer in the CenPho and historic neighborhoods.
Normally, I would assume that there will be downward pressure on prices in the summer, as there are often fewer buyers around. However, Michelle and I have been working hard with our clients to find the right properties, given the tight supply. So, that might carry over as some folks are still looking for the right house.
Also in the CenPho area, I expect some folks to list their homes, having seen how prices have gone up.
And, of course, don’t forget that many people want to get their house closed before the interest rates go up later this year.
What do you think will happen?
If you need help navigating this market, let me know at 602-456-9388.
