Market News and Contradictions

I have been inundated over the last week with conflicting market news.

The Wall Street Journal saw the Case-Schiller Index and feared a possible double-dip. The best quote from that article tells the story of why people are waiting to buy: they are nervous from hearing bad news, feeding a self-fulfilling prophesy. “You’ve got a whole bunch of people who are sitting, waiting in the wings to get into house buying because they know it’s cheap, they know interest rates are low, they know it’s a highly subsidized investment,” said Wellesley College economist Karl Case, who developed the house-price index with Yale University economist Robert Shiller. “If they stay out because they’ve become a little bit more nervous, it can mean the whole market moves.”

But at the same time, AZ Central is reporting that people are doing a better job keeping up with their mortgage payments. Fewer people locally and nationally are behind at least 60 days on their mortgage payments. Certainly this is a precursor to a stabilizing in the market.

Then I turn around again and my broker, Jim Sexton is pointing to lower prices in July, partially due to the very small number of “normal” sales (non-foreclosure, non-short sale) in August.  As my real estate mentor, Leif Swanson, likes to also point out, the huge number of super-cheap, cash-only condos that sold recently have dragged prices down, to0.

So, what is one to believe? For me, it all comes down to a couple simple, but true facts.

1) People hear bad news about the economy and they are holding off on that big decision until they feel more confident that their job will be there 6 months from now. This too shall pass –specifically once we get about a month of improving jobs numbers.

2) A home is not the stock market, as pointed out in this great article. If you need a home, these are the lowest prices in a quarter century and the lowest interest rates in 40 years. Don’t buy a home because you think you will make a killing tomorrow. Buy because you need a place to live and it is better to pay yourself to live there than a landlord.