Market Conditions: April 2013

You’ve heard me going on about how prices are up and I told you they were going up two years ago. Okay. Enough of that crowing, Clark.

Let’s talk about what this means. 

See the 3-month moving average for per square foot home prices in the downtown and CenPho neighborhoods, above. The 6-month moving average is a little less extreme, but it will because if averages with homes that sold 6 months ago. 

If you are a buyer, expect this to continue. In a presentation I did with The Cromford Report’s Tina Tamboer last week, I predicted that homes in the CenPho areas will probably go up another 15-20 % this year. Tina was a little more conservative, pointing to a typical summer price plateau.

If you are a seller, think about selling before that plateau hits in June, or hold off until the autumn. 

Why not hold off until next year if you are a seller? Two reasons:

1) If everybody does the same thing (and they often do in markets), then we are looking at a severely tight and unstable market. You don’t want to sell during that.

2) The Cromford Index (see below) shows that this is a very strong seller’s market. Historically seller’s markets don’t last forever. A seller’s market happens any time the index is over 100. This seller’s market may be waning, especially if interest rates go up –as they have been doing.

So, you might be thinking, “Clark, how can you be telling both buyers and sellers to act at the same time?” Well, I’m not, really. What I’m saying is keep an eye on these indicators as you think about what is best for you, regardless of the market. This is not a stock market where you can trade back and forth easily. But you need to think ahead of the trends. Call me at 602-456-9388 if you want help doing that.