Late-May Market Update

We are seeing upward pressure on prices, as the seller’s advantage strengthens again in the market.

The Cromford Index analysts think that the push upward will continue in to mid-June, although not drastically.

“For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $171.19 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $171.96, which is 0.5% above the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $168.52 to $175.40.

The average $/SF has been stronger than predicted over the last 4 months, and this has been largely due to the mix of homes that closed. High end homes were better represented than expected between January through April. The average $/SF for pending listings has risen again over the last month so we are expecting another gain in average $/SF over the next 31 days. The overall price trend continues to move higher, as is normal for the spring season, but we normally peak during the second quarter and then see some weakness for the following 3 months.”

So, in other words, the prices are on a solid incline. No spikes, from what we are seeing.

What does this market update mean for sellers? It means that your position is stronger than it was at the end of last year. The decision to wait is really a function of what your other opportunities are.

Will an increase of 1% on the sale of your home if you wait a month be a better outcome than if you sold now and did something else with your money? Your call.

Buyers, don’t fear a steep price jump, but don’t expect that you can wait forever. Remember, there is still a scarcity of new construction in Phoenix, especially central and downtown.