Contradictions and Opportunity

I love me some contradictions.

Any time you hear somebody telling you that there is a massive wave of foreclosures coming down the pipe, or that everything will be rosy tomorrow, just remember: it will be a mix of good and bad. As a home buyer or a home seller, your best option is to make plans as you normally would and to your best to mitigate any negatives.

In other words, find the opportunities regardless of the market.

Take a look at these stories:

1)  Forbes: Phoenix housing prices falling dangerously. There are obvious problems with this story. First, Zillow is far from accurate about home prices. and trends. Second, the market softens near the end of any year. Third, and most important, this is an opportunity if you are looking to buy, regardless of whether the market remains flat next year or not. Negative, positive!

2) Real estate opportunities starting to grow. Here is a story of how people are finding huge opportunities in this market. They are going in together on investment properties, forming Real Estate Investment Trusts (REET). They are buying homes at historically low cost, which will pay off even if prices dip a little in 2011 –they will probably start coming back in the next year and savvy long-term investors will reap the reward.

What is the problem with this story? Maybe it is a bit too rosy if you are a first time home buyer and don’t have access to quick capital. How do you fix that? Make a plan and save every month so you can act as soon as you can build up enough for 3.5% down and get a FICO score over 700.

Maybe its time to talk to people in your family about getting together to do some investing. It is not as difficult as it sounds.

I just heard today that manufacturers are sitting on $2 trillion dollars of cash, just waiting for people to start spending. Add that to the fact that the savings rate in America is now over 6%, average, and you see that there is starting to build a pent-up demand. Will that express itself in terms of home purchases or product purchases? I think both. As soon as people hear some good economic news, they are going to spend.

So, you have a choice. See the opportunity in the market while prices are low, or let that dam of pent-up savings break and watch prices go up.

To me, that is not a contradiction.