2032 N Alvarado

We have four new listings coming up this month to kick off the new year.

So, this is just a teaser. We will get you the full new listings as soon as we go live on the MLS. Watch our Facebook page or our listings page on this website for announcements, as they happen.

First, we will present a 1928, 3,500 sqft estate in the Alvarado historic district. That’s between Central and 3rd St at about Monte Vista. This home has a deep history in Phoenix along with incredible details and beautiful features which we will be proud to present. It will list next week at $1,050,000.

You will definitely be hearing more about this one soon.

FQ Story Bungalow Coming Soon!

Second, we will present a 2br/2ba, 1,100 sqft charming bungalow in the FQ Story Historic Neighborhood. This 1931 home has all that you would hope from a property in FQ Story, including historic built-ins, wood floors and easy accessibility to all the fun downtown. Final list price is TBA. Watch for this listing at the end of the month.

Town Homes on 3rd for that downtown lifestyle.

Third, and also at the end of the month, we will present a beautiful 1,700 sqft, 2br/2.5ba property at Townhomes on 3rd. This development was the previous town home project completed by local developer Matt Seaman in 2015. These properties have their own garage parking, with beautiful appliances and views of downtown lights. This property is about 200 yards from the Gold Spot Market. Final list price TBA.

Last, but not least, I am listing my very own 3br/1ba, 1,362 sqft property in the Garfield neighborhood. I am specifically pricing this home for those who want to renovate their own space –rather than investors– because I believe in supporting creative, owner-occupying renovators in a neighborhood that I love.

I purchased this home in 2006 and I’ve put over $50,000 in to it since then. I updated the landscaping, paint, porch, kitchen, bedrooms and bathrooms –which could use a touch up. But, I also added a new roof, blown-in insulation, tankless water heater, a foam roof over the master bedroom, historic double-hung windows and other historic touches. This property is coming on the market this week at $265,000.

The market is hopping right now. So, if you need some help finding the right property, or help selling your home, please call us at 602-456-9388.

The December Market Update comes at a time when we are seeing a lot of interest in listing homes. We seem to be getting a new call or email every few days from people who want to list in the new year.

Does this mean that we are in a bubble? I don’t know. See last month’s Market Update to see why I think the market could be turning a little in 2018.

The Arizona Republic reported last week that we are definitely NOT in a housing bubble right now.

I agree.

But that does not mean that there won’t be a correction. First, we are not in a bubble because (1) we are not seeing unrestrained debt-loading like we did in 2004-2007 and (2) there is still a strong demand for new housing, especially in CenPho where there is hardly any new owner-occupied construction.

Second, a correction does not necessarily mean that the market will plummet by 30%, as it did in the last decade.

What it means is that homes are priced a little too high. Again, see last month’s analysis for more on that.

My gut tells me there could be a 2% to 5% correction in 2018.

I could be wrong. I’ll admit it if I am.

The important thing to keep in mind is that we need to look at your specific case.

For instance, if you purchased a home three years ago and you are thinking of selling, it might be a good time. If there is a market adjustment in 2018, prices could be back to 2015 levels by the end of the year. Then you may have to wait another two years to sell.

If you purchased a home in 2009, you are in a great place to sell, as prices have come so far since then.

If you are thinking of purchasing, you may want to wait –unless you are in a position that any savings you have during a slight market downturn are eaten up by further renting while you wait for that correction to bottom out.

Give us a call at 602-456-9388 to analyze your specific situation.

New to the Get Your PHX website is an instant CMA for your home, or Comparable Market Analysis.

It is simple. Just put in your address and we will do a real analysis for you (no automated, impersonal robots here). Then we can get together and refine that Comparable Market Analysis to account for specifics of your property and your neighborhood.

This is a good time to add a note about the estimates that you can get from those mega sites like Zillow, Realtor.com and Trulia.

They are wildly inaccurate in my experience. Let’s just put it on the table. Because these sites don’t have access to every Multi-Listing Service around the country, they depend on assessor records and property tax records. Property taxes are a reflection of assessors estimates of values, not of sales information.

In fact, there is an on-going debate about what impact these estimates are having on home owners. Here’s an article on the issue from a couple years ago.

Fun fact: Zillow calls them “zestimates” because they can’t legally call it an estimate. We agents can’t even call it an estimate. Unless I am an appraiser, I can only give you a comparative market analysis, or a “comp.” If you want more accurate analysis, let us do a Comparable Market Analysis for you, which is based on the actual Multi-listing Service in Phoenix –not some algorithm based on property tax records.

Another fun fact: Zillow, Realtor.com and Trulia are not in business to help you find a home or sell a home. They are in business to sell realtors like me ad space for folks like you to see while you are on their websites.

Call us at 602-456-9388 for quality analysis and more fun facts.

Here’s some news about a Grand Canyon University Buyer Closing Cost Discount.

We work with many mortgage brokers and we have a handful who are our favorites.

While we always encourage you to shop around, even among our favorite brokers, we wanted to share the following program from one of them, Matt Smith of Wallack and Volk.

Here’s the deal. If you have ever worked at, are currently enrolled at or are an alumnus from GCU, you may qualify for this program, which could save you a couple thousand dollars on closing costs when you purchase a home.

If you have any friends or family members who are affiliated with GCU, you may also qualify for it as well by merely knowing that person who is connected to GCU.

This program offers substantial Mortgage and Real Estate discounts to employees, students and alumni along with their extended families and friends, when using the services of Wallick & Volk Mortgage Bank as well as the program’s selected Real Estate Agents and Title Providers.  These discounts can be used when purchasing, selling or refinancing a home.

DISCOUNTS OFFERED TO AFFILIATES OF GCU

**MORTGAGE DISCOUNTS**

When working with MATT SMITH of Wallick & Volk Mortgage Bank, borrowers will receive a $1,295 credit covering processing and underwriting fees.  *When using a down payment assistance program, the buyer will receive either the lender credit of $1,295 or the down payment assistance grant (whichever is of greater value).

**REAL ESTATE DISCOUNTS**

When working with Ken Clark and Michelle Conley of the Get Your PHX Team, a buyer or seller will receive a discount paid at the closing from their commission of between $700 to $1,000 to be used towards their closing costs when purchasing or selling a home.  Ken and Michelle will provide the discount in the following way:

*For homes priced at $150,000 or below, Ken and Michelle will pay $700 from their commission toward the closing costs.

*For homes from $150,001 – $199,999, Ken and Michelle will pay $800 from their commission toward closing costs.

*For homes priced at $200,000 and above, Ken and Michelle will pay $1,000 from their commission toward closing costs.

**TITLE DISCOUNTS**

With our chosen title company, a buyer or seller will receive a special negotiated rate, which allows a 20% discount off the standard escrow rates.  *We cannot guarantee that this chosen title company will be used in all purchase transactions. 

NOTE: We tell all of our favorite brokers that we encourage our clients to speak with at least three brokers before choosing one. For a list of our favorite brokers, please call Ken at 602-456-9388.

I toured Matt Seaman’s new development, McKinley Row on 4th Ave and McKinley (MetroWest Development).

First, I’m a big fan of Matt. He is one of the few developers in downtown who is focusing on owner occupied properties on in-fill, walkable parcels. While most other large developers can’t get their heads out of the 1,000+ unit mentality, Matt knows that the future of development will be in finding ways to fill in the many small spaces in Phoenix.

Did you know that 43% of Phoenix is made up of empty lots? Let’s use those for housing, rather than sprawling out in to our beautiful desert, thus causing longer commutes and more pollution.

Matt and I were talking about how the Phoenix push to build apartments over the last ten years crowded out those who want to build owner-occupied properties, but also made it difficult for moderate income folks to afford to live downtown. Part of the problem comes from the investors, who don’t like to back condo projects due to potential lawsuit liability issues.

But, I digress. In short, we have a problem in housing and we need more folks like Matt who can build owner-occupied homes and who can find lower cost ways to build homes for folks in dense urban areas.

I’m not one of those agents who believes that everybody should own a home. But, at last count, there was at least a 6 to 1 ratio of apartments to owner-occupied downtown. Where will all of those renters go in a few years when they want to buy a home and they are priced out? Who will have a stake in our downtown if they all move out?

I wanted to share with you Matt’s project. With 18 town home units at 4th Ave and McKinley, and a similar project coming next year at 2nd Ave and McKinley, Matt is creating homes for downtowners.

Matt tells me that McKinley Row is half sold now, with town homes selling as low as the $390s and as high as the $500s.

Have a look at the photos below. They are just my photos. If you want to see the snazzy photos with the CGI furniture in the rooms, have a look at their website.

The photos below illustrate a few features that I thought were unique.

If you are interested in town house living, please give us a call at 602-456-9388. We’ve represented clients on Matt’s projects before, so give us a call.

MetroWest did a good job of setting back the projects, as required by historic preservation. They’ve left green space and space to enjoy the neighborhood.

These are the massive windows in the corner unit, which you can see from the inside in the next photo. Great views of downtown!

Here are those windows from the inside. That’s a nice view to wake up to.

I did not get a shot from the outside, but this corner unit, in addition to having corner windows on the ground floor, has a separate entrance that you can make in to an office.

I don’t have a crystal ball for this November 2017 Market Update.

I don’t know what is going to happen in the market in 2018.

But I do think it is wise to consider the probabilities. I do think that there will be some kind of market shift in 2018. It may only be 3 to 5 percentage points, but I think the changes are increasing every year.

Why do I say this? First, I’ve heard professional economists saying that the over-all economy is due for an adjustment.

Second, I’m seeing the Cromford Index shifting downward from end of last year.

For you long-time readers, you will remember that the Cromford Index tracks whether we are in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, and by how much. It also precedes market shifts because prices can still be going up while the Cromford Index is trending down. If you look at the chart here, you will see that the seller’s advantage has been weakening since about May. If we see that weakness in January and February, then expect prices to drop a little bit. (Nothing like 2009, by the way.)

Third, the market is crowded with renovation homes right now. Some of them are not that great, by the way. Based on past experience, this seems to be an indication that speculators are crowding the market. When we get too many listings on the market, I think prices will begin to drop.

Fourth, the chatter out there is about quick sales. This is usually a sign of a high market. We had clients who had 15 offers in the first 48 hours of listing their property. Sound familiar?

Our friends at the Cromford Report are not ready to take a stand like this for their November 2017 Market Update. Cromford sees prices strong for next month, expects more listings on the market, which could lower prices at end of year. Here is there take:

“Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $150.21 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up $1.10 or 0.7% from the $149.11 we now measure for September 15.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $152.17, which is 1.7% above the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $149.71 to $155.83.

So we are forecasting the same percentage increase over the next 31 days that we have seen in the average price of pending listings over the past 30 days. This means the third quarter slump is well and truly over and we expect the usual surge in $/SF for the fourth quarter.

Having said that, the actual number of pending listings is lower than usual. Only 2001, 2007 and 2014 saw lower pending listing readings as of October 15, so it appears that the current pricing level is putting a slight damper on demand, at least as far as pending counts is concerned. Sales counts are still looking healthy although the annual sales rate is no longer increasing as it had been a few months ago. This means the market is not expanding as fast as as it was in the first half of 2017. (Emphasis added)

If you are thinking about selling your home, it is a good time to have a deeper look at the data. Give us a call at 602-456-9388 so we can plan ahead and maximize your sale price.

For the 2017 Market Update, we get some help from the Cromford Report. First, here’s their over-all market analysis. Followed below by my more localized analysis of what we are seeing.

“For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $149.06 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 11 cents or 0.07% from the $149.17 we now measure for August 15.

On September 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $153.13, down 0.7% from the reading for August 15.

So we are forecasting another small decline over the next 30 days. (emphasis added) This is slightly unusual since we normally start to see some upward momentum by the beginning of October. Last year at thistime we predicted an increase and the actual result exceed our prediction. We would therefore not be too surprised if today’s forecast turned out to be too pessimistic.”

I added the emphasis for a completely non-scientific and totally gut feeling reason: I can’t shake the feeling that we are over-due for a market correction in 2018. I’m not talking about the 2009 version of earth-shattering, life savings-draining market crash.

I’m thinking more along the lines of a 3-5% downturn, which will, for all intents and purposes, make the 2018 market look more like that late 2015 market.

But, if you are thinking that prices will continue to go up, I’m starting to feel that this will not be the same.

I could see that prices will remain strong in the dense, hip, urban areas that are so popular right now. But they may not be immune to the correction.

What do I base this on?

Here are some admittedly non-scientific bits of analysis. To be fair, few people often predict the market accurately repeatedly, so there is no such thing as a truly scientific method when it comes to market behavior.

Anyway, here is what I’m seeing:

1. The Cromford Index, which is a good predictor of what the market will be doing 3-6 months from now, seems to be flat or moving slightly downward over the course of the year, as opposed to 2016. This could mean that the market is moving slowly more toward a buyer’s market and away from a seller’s market. Is it a small change and perhaps premature to discuss? Maybe, but I’d rather be ahead of this than behind.
2. The renovation market, which seems to be over 50% of all homes that are active in CenPho and historic neighborhoods, seems to be pushing prices far up above market averages in areas that were pretty rough just a couple years ago. I don’t see entire neighborhoods changing character over night just because a few renovators made an old home look like the interior of a Anthropology outlet at the mall.
3. I hear more potential buyers choosing to wait for another year or two because they just can’t believe that prices in some areas will continue to go up. So, yep, its a whiff of a smell in the air, a wil o wisp. But I’ve heard this before. Buyers are tuned in to this frequency, even if subconsciously.
4. I’m seeing more and more of what I would consider fly-by-night renovation operations that are churning out some pretty terrible products faster than a Double-Double from In and Out Burger.

Its totally a gut feeling on my part. Take it with a grain of salt. But, as a person who owns an investment property, I’m thinking of selling while the market is relatively high. If you bought in 2010 at the lowest point of the market, then this may not be a concern for you. But if you want to cash out, I would start considering a move.

As we often say, the real estate market is not the stock market. Don’t approach it that way. At the same time, you will never know the lowest or highest point. If you buy generally in the trough and sell generally near the peak, it is a good place to be.

If you need help thinking through your specific situation, give us a call at 602-456-9388. 

Here’s how you can support your favorite charity: refer us!

Please support our Charity Referral Network.

Hunter, in Phoenix, did just that. Last week, we helped his friends Shawn and Charlie close on the home shown in this video. True to our word, we will make a donation to Hunter’s favorite charity.

You can to. Its simple. When you are talking to friends at a party, at the office or that family dinner you’ve been avoiding for months, and when somebody mentions they need a realtor, kindly remember us!

This is our attempt to focus positive attention on those charities that you care about, and which do so much good work here in Phoenix.

Here is how it works. If you send us a referral for a home sale or purchase, and that transaction closes, we will make a donation to the charity of your choice. We will post on our blog and on Facebook that your referral was instrumental in making that donation happen.

Meanwhile, enjoy this pre-renovation tour and try not to get seasick from the selfie stick I had to use to get this video.

It is as simple as that. Thank you!

Please give us a call today at 602-456-9388 for more.

For the September 2017 Market Update, we check in again with Tina at the Cromford Report.

“Supply remains lower than last year, but the gap closed slightly compared with last month in terms of active listings with no contract. We are starting to see more new listings than last year. The third quarter is up 2.5% from last year and up 5.5% from 2015. So far the extra supply is not having much effect, but if it continues for several months finding a property could start to get a little easier for buyers.

The monthly sales rate is up only 1.8% compared with a year ago. Both August 2016 and August 2017 had the same number of working days (23) so we have a fair comparison to draw. Since the year over year growth was 5.7% in June and 3.0% in July we again see a continuing slow downward trend in the advantage that 2017 has over 2016 in sales volume. Growth in the annual sales rate has almost stopped with 95,000 proving to be a difficult line of resistance. All these point to a gradual fading of demand. The serious shortage of supply obscures that fade.

We experienced a seasonal price drop between June and July, but prices have already bounced back during August and are likely to remain on an upward track for the rest of 2017 at least.

We still have a seller’s market in most locations and price ranges, but the current trends means the seller’s advantage has very little momentum. Before buyer`s get too excited, the trends are very mild in nature. As such we do not currently see major increases in buyer’s bargaining power coming anytime soon.

Of course, the market could change quickly, as it did in the summer of 2013, but there is not much sign of this in any of the numbers at the moment.”

Anecdotally, we are seeing a huge number of renovation project that seem to dominate the market. I would go so far as to say that they are probably driving prices upward, as the investors are seeking high profit margins and buyers are willing to pay, given a lack of options in CenPho.

In a way some renovations are sad for the historic neighborhoods. I’ve heard many concerns from neighbors that the renovators are taking this historic souls right out of the homes –turning them in to trendy replications of an Anthropology clothing store.

If you are thinking of purchasing a renovated property, please be certain to have a realtor represent you, even if its not us. Many people don’t know that renovators are still responsible for disclosing the condition of the property, even if they claim they never lived in it. You need an agent to protect your interests.

Call us and we can give you more details at 602-456-9388.

The Low Income Historic Housing Rehabilitation Program was created to encourage the repair and rehabilitation of historic residential properties providing housing opportunities for persons and families with low-incomes. The program funds critical building maintenance; structural stabilization work; repair and rehabilitation of historic exterior features such as roofs, walls, windows and doors.

All projects are required to meet city historic preservation guidelines, as well as the Secretary of the Interior’s Standards for the Treatment of Historic Properties. The city will pay 70 percent for eligible work when the 30 percent match is paid by a non-profit organization and for projects where matching funds are provided by an outside agency or other city assistance program. The city pays 80 percent for eligible exterior rehabilitation work on projects where individual grant recipients do not receive funding assistance from a non-profit organization, another agency or assistance program to cover the remaining costs.

The minimum request the city will consider is $3,000 and the maximum funding amount is $30,000. In exchange for receiving funding assistance, owners convey a conservation easement to the city for a period of 15 to 20 years depending on the funding amount.

If you are interested in obtaining the complete application packet about the housing rehabilitation program, which includes the application, program guide and preservation philosophy, call 602-261-8699 or download the packet items from the City of Phoenix website here.

If you need help finding a property that you can fix up and make your own using this grant, give us a call at 602-456-9388.