We are watching a hot market for the April 2018 Market Update.

First, here’s the perspective of the numbers crunchers over at the Cromford Report:

For the monthly period ending March 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $159.67 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 0.3% or $0.55 from the $159.12 we now measure for February 15. On March 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $166.06, up 1.5% from the reading for February 15.

Translation: the market update shows  that county-wide averages for prices continue to inch upward, but not at a dramatic pace.

The CenPho and historic markets, more narrowly defined, are active, but not what Cromford would consider “hot”, especially at the higher price points.

Look at these three charts measuring the “contract ratio”. Remember, the contract ratio measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings.

1. Valley-wide contract ratio for single family residences, all prices. Notice that we are in the “hot market” band of the chart.

2. If we just look at Cenpho and historic neighborhoods, we go from hot to warm. Why is this, given that no new homes are being built in this area? Shouldn’t it be hot?  It may be that people have been listing a little too high for the market, and their listings are staying on longer, or are dropping off. This is true, wether we are looking at all homes (52.6%) or just homes below $500,000 (62.2%)

3. If we look at Cenpho, historic, same area and above $500,000, we see that the Contract Ratio drops to about ____.  It is normal for more expensive homes to take longer to sell and for more of them to drop out of the market. So, this is not alarming.

What it does seem to show is that the historic markets, while active, are not as hot as the over-all county. It is hard to say why –and perhaps the wonderful nerds at the Cromford Report would disagree– but I believe it may be that sellers might have priced too high at first in the historic neighborhoods. Combined with possible uncertainty on the part of buyers about whether they should buy now or wait for a market shift.

While I’ve been expecting a market shift for some time, I’m starting to believe that it may not come as soon a I originally thought. This is probably due to two things. First, there are no new houses to speak of in CenPho. Second, with a high stock market, people are still looking to real estate as a place to park their money.

We are watching the market closely. If you are thinking of buying or selling, use a team that knows the numbers. Call us at 602-456-9388.

We’ve issued a new price –down to $435,000– for this beautiful downtown town home –2br/2.5ba, 1,664sf with a 2-car garage. No parking headaches for you downtown if you live here!

This property represents downtown living in a rare and roomy town home, in the thick of all the fun. You can live about 200 yards from the Gold Spot Market, 1/8th mile from light rail, and a quick hop away from all of the entertainment, education and shopping downtown.

Have a look at our listings page for more information and lots of beautiful photos.

Please also see the video that we produced to give you a tour of the home at this link.

All this with a garage and quick access to the freeways. This town home was built in 2015 with added extras, chosen by the owner: upgraded floors and kitchen features.

So, if you love the historic neighborhoods and that front porch experience, but don’t want the historic home maintenance, this property is for you.

This home is priced competitively with the almost identical (but slightly smaller) MetroWest town homes nearing completion around the corner at 2nd Ave and McKinley. Have a look at this link for the story I did on that new development.

With everything happening downtown, you won’t want to miss this.

Michelle Conley, the quieter and more dignified half of the Get Your PHX team, has just a price reduction on her  listing in North Central Phoenix, to $584,900.

This 4br/4ba home has a den and a roomy guest house. It has one of the coolest back yards we’ve ever seen, on an expansive 10,698sf lot.

Check out the beautiful, state-of -the art kitchen with breakfast bar, granite counter tops, high end appliances, pantry, and complete with wine cooler. All bathrooms have been updated to perfection.

The guest house is large and is perfect for your in-laws or college student, with a security system with cameras and hard wired Ethernet.

The backyard is an entertainers delight complete with built in BBQ, outdoor speakers and fans. Full size washer and dryer in main home and guest house convey with the property. This property has been totally updated and is a fantastic family home! Schedule your private showing today!

You can see all of the photos and details for this new listing in North Central at Michelle’s special listing page.

Don’t miss out on this huge price drop on this beautiful 1928, 5br/3ba, 3,700sqft Spanish Mission style historical home.

You might have seen this home on our Listings Page. We are so proud to represent this listing. Have a look at the listing and photos that capture how beautifully this home has been maintained.

You can see the video tour that we put together for your viewing enjoyment on YouTube.

Check out the crafted woodwork, the coved ceilings, the luxurious grounds and the attention to detail and respect for this home’s origin. The current owners have added just the right touches, including a beautiful pool. You can have all this, as well as easy access to downtown, transportation corridors, shopping, entertainment and a peaceful urban neighborhood.

Source: Arizona Republic Archives

The home was built in 1928 by Harry Tritle, the son of former territorial governor F. A. Tritle. He was the Assistant Secretary of the Territory of Arizona starting in 1897.  He was also the editor of the Arizona Gazette. Many years later, in 1926, he was appointed to the Industrial Commission of Arizona.

This home has seen so much of Phoenix’s growth since then. We are still working on compiling the history of the home since that time. So, stay tuned!

If you have a historic home that you hope to sell with the help of a qualified and successful team that also respects the importance of the stories behind historic homes, please contact us at 602-456-9388.

Source: Arizona Republic

When you are selling your home, are you required to disclose if your home was used as the setting of an adult movie?

Yep. I couldn’t help myself. The question is designed to catch your attention –clickbait style.

The Arizona Republic already covered the question in this story just the other day.

However, its worth a look because disclosure rules are very, very important –whether you are the buyer or the seller.

If you are selling, the first thing a good you will be asked to, do after you sign your listing agreement, is complete a Seller Property Disclosure Statement, or SPDS. And the general rule is, “when in doubt, disclose.”

In other words, if you can’t remember whether you had that roof repaired after that monsoon five years ago, it is better to disclose what you know. If you don’t and the new owners find out that you knew a material fact that you should have disclosed, you could be in legal hot water.

You can best protect yourself by being honest. If the buyer walks because they don’t like something, its better than lying about it and possibly suffering greater losses later

However, there are some things that you are not required to disclose (and which your agent can’t disclose).

• If the home was the site of a natural death, suicide or homicide or any other crime classified as a felony.
• If home was owned or occupied by a person exposed to HIV or AIDS.
• If home being located in the vicinity of a sex offender.

Why do we have this list? Simple, these things could unfairly tarnish or sour a home unnecessarily.  When it comes to these items, it is the responsibility of the buyer to check it out.

So, let’s go back to the issue in the article, from the buyer’s perspective. Is it relevant that the home was the site of adult movies? Nope. Not as far as the contract is concerned. How it is material to the sale? Was there damage to the property? Probably not. (Maybe just a slight embarrassment, though.)

In Arizona buyers can cancel the contract during the inspection period for almost any reason. However, in this case, if the buyers had hoped to cancel the contract (and keep their earnest money) after the inspection period, they could not do it on this basis. Its unfortunate that the buyers did not learn about this before they finished the inspection period.

So, if you are buying a home, Michelle and I are going to advise you to complete all of your inspections –including talking to the neighbors about the “scoop” on the home– before you complete your 10-day inspection period. We have never heard of a client regretting knocking on a few surround doors and talking to the neighbors.

Do you think these buyers would have learned about the previous videographic uses of the home had they paid a visit to the neighbors? We think they probably would have.

Not that we think the production of some skin flicks is going to permanently tarnish a home. But if knowing that such movies were made in a home give you the heebie-jeebies, be certain to learn everything you can.

We are a couple of experienced and licensed agents who pride ourselves on understanding commissioner’s rules.

If you have questions about the home buying or selling process, give us a call at 602-456-9388.

I’m at odds with my friends at the Cromford Report in this March 2018 Market Update.

I wish I weren’t.

They are seeing a continued upward trend in prices, although slight.

I’m seeing the beginnings of a shift.

First, their comments:

“For the monthly period ending February 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $159.13 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 1.0% or $1.53 from the $157.60 we now measure for January 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $159.14, with a 90% confidence range of $155.95 to $162.31. The actual result was just 1 cent below the mid-point, which means the forecast we gave last month was our most accurate ever.

We are therefore predicting a similar rise over the next 28 days to the one we just experienced between January and February. So far in 2018, with a month and a half of new listings to go on, we have seen a 1.5% decline in new supply over the same period in 2017. Obviously this not going to rebalance the market in favor of buyers. Prices will continue to trend higher until we see either far more supply or much lower demand.”

Second, what Michelle and I are seeing:

In speaking with other agents and in our recent experience, we are seeing less activity above $300,000. Below $200,000 is as hot as ever.

The Cromford Index shows a continued upward climb. There was a bit of a dip a month ago, which I reported. But it is turning around.

However, we are seeing a slightly lower contract ratio. “The contract ratio indicates how “hot” a market is. It specifically measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings. The higher the number the greater the buying activity relative to supply. If this number rises then it is a sign of growing contract activity and a positive signal for sellers.

Conversely a falling number is a sign of a weakening market – either supply of active listings is increasing or contract activity is slowing, or both. In a balanced market for normal market segments, the value of the Contract Ratio is usually between 30 and 60.”

Call me paranoid, but I think we are due for some sort of a correction. The only caveat is that this may be less pronounced in a dense urban area, such as right downtown.

Here’s where I could be wrong: the contract ratio often pushed back upward in February and March. I say, if we don’t see that happen when we get the numbers this month it may be a sign.

If you are thinking of selling, let’s get it done right away and let’s be ready to price aggressively.

Call us at 602-456-9388 and we can help you navigate the market.

Michelle Conley, the quieter and more dignified half of the Get Your PHX team, has a special new listing in North Central Phoenix, where the trees are tall and shady and the houses are roomy.

This family home has all the coolest updates, most of which has been installed by the current owners.

This is a 4br/4ba, 3,216sf home with a guest house and one of the coolest back yards we’ve ever seen, on an expansive 10,698sf lot.

Check out the beautiful, state-of -the art kitchen with breakfast bar, granite counter tops, high end appliances, pantry, and complete with wine cooler. All bathrooms have been updated to perfection.

The guest house is large and is perfect for your in-laws or college student.

The home and guest house has a security system with cameras and hard wired Ethernet.

The backyard is an entertainers delight complete with built in BBQ, outdoor speakers and fans. Full size washer and dryer in main home and guest house convey with the property. This property has been totally updated and is a fantastic family home! Schedule your private showing today!

You can see all of the photos and details for this new listing in North Central at Michelle’s special listing page.

New, just last week is this beautiful downtown town home –2br/2.5ba, 1,664sf with a 2-car garage. No parking headaches for you downtown if you live here!

This property represents downtown living in a rare and roomy town home, in the thick of all the fun. You can live about 200 yards from the Gold Spot Market, 1/8th mile from light rail, and a quick hop away from all of the entertainment, education and shopping downtown.

Have a look at our listings page for more information and lots of beautiful photos.

All this with a garage and quick access to the freeways. This town home was built in 2015 with added extras, chosen by the owner: upgraded floors and kitchen features.

So, if you love the historic neighborhoods and that front porch experience, but don’t want the historic home maintenance, this property is for you.

This home is priced competitively with the almost identical (but slightly smaller) MetroWest town homes nearing completion around the corner at 2nd Ave and McKinley. Have a look at this link for the story I did on that new development.

With everything happening downtown, you won’t want to miss this.

The Willo Home Tour is right around the corner, on February 11th. This year is the 30th anniversary of the tour. Here are my tips on how to have a great time.

First, a couple disclosures. I live in Willo, but I’ve never put my home up on the tour. I purchased it in late 2013 as a short sale home, in need of quite a bit of work. With our busy schedule with our clients and my legislative duties, the renovation schedule is stretched out over a decade. So, its gonna be a while.

If you are new to Phoenix and you want a primer on the Willo Neighborhood, have a look at this video that I did a few years ago. Its the pre-beard days, and quite a bit goofy, but we had a lot of fun with it.  We did videos on other neighborhoods on our Youtube Channel, as well. (We just re-uploaded them all, so that’s why they have no views.)

Any-who….

Here’s what you need to do to get the most out the Willo Home Tour:

1) Get your tickets right away. They won’t run out, but its good to get them now, rather than standing in line.

2) The Willo Affair happens the evening prior to the tour and is quite a beautiful outdoor dinner in the neighborhood.

3) There are a bunch of food trucks and options, so don’t worry if you didn’t get breakfast on the way out the door in the morning. If you feel like grabbing breakfast, there are many near-by options, including Vovomeena, HobNobs, Press Coffee at the Muse Apartments, and so many other choices.

4) Support the local vendors! I’ve been out there with the vendors for years. They work hard and always appreciate a little love.

5) Wear comfortable shoes. Even if you take the shuttle, you are going to put some steps on that ol’ FitBit.

6) If you have accessibility concerns, check with the organizers. Not every one of these old homes is accessible. Some are, some are not.

7) Parking is a little mad. If you can park a little further away from the tour start, I suggest you do it. The weather is perfect to be outside, so take advantage of the stroll or roll!

8) Be mindful that people live in these homes. They work very hard to get them ready for you to see. But, if you have kids or pets that might want to explore, it may be best to find alternatives for them.

If you enjoyed this one, you might also like the Coronado Home Tour, in February. The Encanto-Palmcroft Home Tour only happens every other year, alternating with the Windsor Square Home Tour.

The history of 2032 N. Alvarado speaks to the early growth of Phoenix, before there was air conditioning, an airport or hipsters drinking organic, craft beer. In fact, it was built during the first Phoenix housing boom of the 1920s.

You might have seen this home on our Listings Page. We are so proud to represent this listing. Have a look at the listing and photos that capture how beautifully this home has been maintained.

Source: Arizona Republic Archives

The home is an example of Spanish Mission (which some will argue is Santa Barbara style). Dominant features of the time include an arched batten door,  corbelled imposts and a dominant balcony, which is quite rare and unique now.

Built in 1928 by Harry Tritle, the son of former territorial governor F. A. Tritle. He was the Assistant Secretary of the Territory of Arizona starting in 1897.  He was also the editor of the Arizona Gazette. Many years later, in 1926, he was appointed to the Industrial Commission of Arizona.

Unfortunately, he and his wife, Amy Tritle, divorced in 1932. She was able to maintain control of the property and rented it to Paul Hyde Davies for several years. Paul Davies was a locally-successful business executive, who came to Phoenix from Pittsburgh, where he was an early voice on radio.

The Hyde Davies home was the site of a wedding in 1936 —the maid of honor was the wife of the young Barry Goldwater, who was in attendance, and who had only 6 years earlier inherited his father’s well-known department store business.

The Arizona Republic went to great detail about the details of the wedding and the fashion choices of the many attendees. Unfortunately, the archives articles from the time are behind a pay wall at Newspapers.com.

Reading these old papers is a hoot. Did you know that, when this marriage happened, you could get a Westinghouse Electric Waffle Iron for $8.90 — 90c down and just $1/mo. on your electric bill. So, I guess people did pay for things on their electric bills back then.

Amy (the formerly Mrs. Tritle) re-enters the story in 1938 to sell the house to Preston T. and Margaret Brown. Preston was a well-respected gynecologist and was elected to the Phoenix City Council in 1961. Preston, unfortunately, died at the age of 57.

This home has seen so much of Phoenix’s growth since then. We are still working on compiling the history of the home since that time. So, stay tuned!

If you have a historic home that you hope to sell with the help of a qualified and successful team that also respects the importance of the stories behind historic homes, please contact us at 602-456-9388.