So, when the inventory goes down, what happens? Yep, demand goes up.

I’ve heard all this talk about a double dip recession (which we now know never happened) or this second huge wave of foreclosures (which has also not happened). I’ve learned not to trust the doomsayers in the press or at the universities.

In fact, the market has been clearing the inventory of new foreclosed homes as quickly as they have been coming on.

This time last year, we were on track for 24,995 annual home sales in Maricopa County. As of today, we have sold 30,063 in the last 12 month period. (Source: www.cromfordreport.com)

Wave? Right.

So, here is what I’m seeing:

1) Inventory is actually down a little since September. See below. This is an incredible time to pick up a new home.

2) I’m seeing investors snapping up the good homes in less than a week. Those that need more work sit on the market longer. So, if you are looking, be ready with your Loan Status Report or your Proof of Funds so you can jump on a good deal when you see it.

3) Don’t expect prices to drop too much further. They tend to drop around the holidays, but people start scooping up properties in late January.

4) We still don’t know how long these low interest rates will hold out. A slight change in interest rates can mean a huge increase in your monthly payments.

5) If you are thinking of selling, hold off a little longer, unless you have true equity in your home.

Give me a call if you have more questions.

This massive 2,566 square foot, 3br/3ba property in north central Phoenix is now only $375,000!

This third of an acre lot is located in the secluded Tonka Vista neighborhood. This neighborhood is best known because for its large mid-century homes that back up to the Arizona Canal, easy access to Piestewa Peak, with walking access to Granada Park.

Be certain to have a look at the MLS link by touching on the photos below and let me know if you’d like a private tour.

Happy thanksgiving to all of you!

We certainly don’t have the idealized Normal Rockwell life, but then neither did he, and that is what makes us thankful for what we have. (I figure that was not lost on Norman, either.)

I am thankful for my family, for Amy and for my true friends. I have made new friends on this year’s  journey that will last a lifetime and I have reconnected with old friends.

I am thankful for even the losses, because they make me a stronger and wiser.

I am thankful for all of those who have entrusted me with their very personal and important real estate decisions. It is a hard time for both buyers and sellers and patience will win the day.

I am thankful and grateful for my co-conspirators at Get Your PHX and excited for Phoestivus.

I am also thankful and grateful for those who are willing to take the hard stance with me to reform Arizona.

Eat well, enjoy the day and make it Rockwellian.

The weather is stunning and the houses are open. Please join us at either one of these great properties on Sunday from 1pm to 5pm!

Please see this PDF file (OH_Tour-2010_1114-LETTER) for a list of all 44 homes that are on the Group Open House tour tomorrow, Sunday, November 14th.

This Group Open House covers North Central Phoenix. Please have a look and visit a few homes! This is a buyer’s market, so this is the time to look!

Three major condo projects, 44 Monroe in downtown Phoenix, 3rd Avenue Palms in Phoenix and Safari Drive Scottsdale, all went in to foreclosure in 2007 when the builders could not sell at the obnoxiously high prices they listed.

After the developer, Corus Bankshares Inc., lost the properties and went bankrupt, a Chicago firm, ST Residential, was created to move the properties again.

Check out the AZ Republic notice here.

This is an interesting development because the condo market is in such disarray right now. Long story short, almost every condominium project in the country last year was “de-certified.” Certification is required if you want to buy a condo property with an FHA loan. Since the vast majority of buyers right now are FHA buyers, the condo market is in trouble.

This is why I have been able to help people find incredible condos for less than $100,000. Some even lower, like the 2br/1.75ba place around the corner from me for $40,000.

But, how do they recover? Well, these three developments will certainly get FHA certification. So, you would be able to buy there. But even with FHA certification, there are only a certain number that are allowed to go FHA. For instance, the Pierre of 5th condominiums were certified when they came back from foreclosure. But they can only do conventional at this point because they sold the maximum allowed to go FHA.

I don’t know what the limit is on these new properties, but it is easy enough to find out.

Still, given all of that, I think the prices for 44 Monroe and Safari will  be a little too high for most and they will have to come down. I think that 3rd Avenue Palms is pretty well priced, starting at $80,000 (undoubtedly for a 1br/1ba). However, I can’t imagine that Safari Drive, starting at $249,500, will do a brisk business for a while –even for Scottsdale.

In other words, I don’t see other condos or residential homes coming down any further (we have been skipping along the bottom of the market for a while), but at least two of these particular projects will probably have to come down or sit empty for a while longer.

…Just a little prediction. File it appropriately.

Please note this generous price reduction on 1520 W Berridge Lane, from $260,000 to $249,000.

This is a mid-century home that has been completely updated and upgraded. The owners brought together a team of architects and designers from Los Angeles who preserved the authentic 1950s brick beauty of the home, but added incredible value to the home, from the designer features all the way down to the plumbing and electrical.

The sellers believe in preserving a mid-century home, and adding features respectful of the original design while completely modernizing the inside to give confidence to the new owners that this home will last. This is a New Century Modern home!

See the virtual tour here, and see a list of features below.

Property Features
Property: 1520 W. Berridge Lane, Phoenix, 85015
Home: 1771 square feet
Lot: 8,905 sq. ft.

Features:
4 bedrooms Living Room
3 bathrooms Family Room
Kitchen Dining Room
6’ Peninsula Laundry Room

Kitchen
Customized Contemporary Cabinetry
Gorgeous 6’ Peninsula/Island
Sleek Contemporary Hardware, that seamlessly disappears
Designer Italian 24” Tile
Silestone Quartz Countertops
Designer Stainless Steel Sink w/Commercial Chef Style Faucet
All New Stainless Steel Contemporary Appliances
Separate Gas Cook-top and European Style Electric Oven
Stainless Microwave & Hood Vent
Stainless Steel Multi-function Dishwasher
Garbage Disposal
Retro 50’s Pendant Lights over Island and Recessed Lighting
Throughout.

Living Room
Flanked by a Custom Contemporary Room Divider
Dual-Paned Contemporary Front Door w/
Contemporary Stainless Steel Pull Handles & Dual Deadbolts
Designer Italian 24” Tile
Brushed Stainless Steel Retro 50’s Light Fixture
Fully Restored Mid-Century Steel Casement Windows

Family Room
Flanked by a Custom Contemporary Room Divider
Dual-Paned Contemporary French Doors w/
Contemporary Stainless Steel Push/Pull Handles & Deadbolt
Designer Italian 24” Tile
Brushed Stainless Steel Retro 50’s Light Fixture
Spacious and connects with the Kitchen and 6’ Peninsula

4 Bedrooms
Contemporary Designer Lighting
New Doors w/ Brushed Stainless Steel Hardware & Handles
Ecru Carpet & Padding
Fully Restored Mid-Century Steel Casement Windows
Spacious New Closets
Master Bedroom w/private bathroom,
Master Bedroom, Front Exterior is Framed in Brazilian Ipe
Master Bedroom flanked by Contemporary Drapes and Hardware
Natural Light Abounds in every Room
Views of the Exterior Scape frame every Bedroom

Bathroom #1
Customized Contemporary Vanity
Sleek Contemporary Hardware
Silestone Quartz Countertop (Green Feature)
Dual Flush Toilet (Green Feature)
Designer Italian 12” x 24” Grey Dual-Glazed Tile
Sleek Contemporary Square Shaped Vessel Sink
Sleek Contemporary Vessel Sink Lavatory Faucet
Kohler Shower Fixtures
Contemporary Designer Light Fixture

Bathroom #2
Customized Contemporary Vanity
Sleek Contemporary Hardware
Silestone Quartz Countertop (Green Feature)
Dual Flush Toilet (Green Feature)
Designer Italian 12’ x 24” Ecru Dual-Glazed Tile
Sleek Contemporary Undermount Sink
Sleek Contemporary Lavatory Faucet
Glass enclosed Walk-in Shower
Contemporary Designer Light Fixture

Bathroom #3
Customized Contemporary Vanity
Sleek Contemporary Hardware
Silestone Quartz Countertop (Green Feature)
Dual Flush Toilet (Green Feature)
Designer Italian 12’ x 24” Ecru Dual-Glazed Tile
Sleek Contemporary Undermount Sink
Sleek Contemporary Lavatory Faucet
Glass enclosed Walk-in Shower
Contemporary Designer Light Fixture

Dining Room
Modern Black & White Drum Shade Chandelier, setting a modern mood!
Designer Italian 24” Tile
Fully Restored Mid-Century Steel Casement Windows
Amazing View of the Professionally Landscaped Rear Yard

Laundry Room
Spacious laundry room
Can also be accessed as a “Pantry Storage” area
Dryer hook-ups for both gas or electric
Designer Italian 24” Tile
Gorgeous Louvered Door w/Stainless Steel Handles

Front Exterior Foyer
Custom Designed Contemporary, Brazilian Ipe Exterior Foyer, a nod to both
Ralph Haver and Al Beadle, it sits atop a Smooth Stucco Wall.
Designated by Sleek, Contemporary, Stainless Steel Address Numbers.
Progressive Exterior Light Fixture
Framed by a Contemporary Walkway and landscaping w/Exterior Scape Lighting.

Rear Covered Patio
Custom Designed Contemporary Rear Covered Patio, inspired by Al Beadle.
Custom Designed Sunbrella Framed Screens set atop a decidedly Contemporary
Patio Structure, that exudes both form & function!
A Wall of Brazilian Ipe frames the Rear Contemporary French Doors that are
accessorized w/Stainless Steel Pull Handles.

Landscaping
Professionally Landscaped with Modern Xeriscape that is flocked with Bobsod, to
merge seamlessly within the irrigated neighborhood scape. (Green Feature)
Custom Designed Contemporary Basket Weave Redwood Fence that frames the
Zen like Exterior Scape.
Rear 12 Foot Gated Entrance with parking of approx. 55 linear ft..
Professionally designed Front & Rear sprinklers controlled by a Rain Dial Timer.
Exterior Lighting w/ timer.
Front Custom Walk-way designed w/6’ wide steps and well lighting, accented by
grey rock.
This expansive lot allows for the architecture to be surrounded by a beautifully
landscaped exterior, inviting the exterior into the interior, with lots of interior
window views!
Capturing the essence of a “Modern Phoenix Lifestyle!”

New Systems and Features
Day & Night HVAC –4 ton Unit, 13 Seer
New HVAC Ducting throughout
New Roof 2010
Electrical Wiring, Circuitry and Panel
Hardwired Smoke Detector System
Plumbing, Drains & Sewer Line (connects @ rear of the yard)
New 3/4” Water Meter and New 1” Main Line
Interior Gas Lines from the Meter
New Insulation throughout (Green feature)
Drywall, Texture and Paint
Cat 5-Wire for Internet & Phone
All New Contemporary Light Fixtures & Recessed Lights
Customized Contemporary Cabinetry (Green Feature)
Dual Flush Toilets (Green Feature)
Sleek Contemporary Hardware
Interior & Exterior Doors
Brushed Stainless Hinges & Door Handles
Custom Mirrors thru-out
Front & Rear Sprinklers & Timer
Exterior Contemporary Lighting & Timer
Custom, Contemporary, Redwood, Basket Weave Fencing w/ 12’ Gate
New Padding & Carpet thru-out all bedrooms
Closets, Doors and their Interior finishes
Glass Shower Enclosures
Custom Contemporary Room Divider
Fully Restored 50’s Steel Casement Windows (completely functional)
Custom Contemporary Architectural Elements designed in Brazilian Ipe
Planning & Design
Architectural Plans – by L.A. Architect: Dada Design
Land Survey—by: Starlink Surveying
Professionally Designed & Landscaped by Urban Oasis Design
Professionally Designed Interior by Dada Design
New Water Meter 3/4” & 1” Mainline—permitted by City of Phoenix

The phrase of the day is “Feed in Tariff”.

No, it is not a tax on over-eating at McDonalds.

It is a way of encouraging the use of renewable energy. Germany is most famous for this method, but it is not the only one. Read here about how our Corporation Commission might consider the issue.

Why is this important to you? Well, if you’ve ever asked “why don’t we have more solar in Arizona?”, then this is one major reason why.

There are two types of methods generally used.

1) Rebates –this is what we have now. Basically, if you install the panels, you get a rebate from the utility company (as required by the Corporation Commission).

Example: The gross cost for solar panels that I want to put on my roof is $15,000. The utility will give me a rebate of $8,000. Then I can also take various tax credits, etc. The ultimate cost will be around $7,000.

Why this is good: Its better than nothing, which is what we had.

Problems: You need to be able to come up with the initial cost (although leasing companies have made this a little better). Also, just because you install it does not mean that you will use it. Further, as the utilities are the ones who give out the rebates, they can slow the process of installation.

2) Feed in Tariff –The utility (and other rate payers) pay you for the electricity that you produce and put in to the system with renewable energy technology.

Example: My electric bill is $100 per month. But I know that every month I could generate $150 per month worth of electricity, based on current rates and what I know the utility will pay for the electricity I generate. I pocket $50 per month and get free electricity.

Why this is good: It gives investors certainty that they will get money back from their investment. It drives the installation of manufacturing for that renewable resource, but also energy efficiency (the less energy you use, the more money you pocket at the end of the month!).

Problem: Some argue that those rate-payers who don’t have solar have to absorb the cost difference of installing solar versus the cheaper coal/gas options. The important thing to keep in mind, however, is that (a) costs for solar are decreasing and (b) it will cost more if we wait and try to do it later.

So, look at this map. Who do you think would benefit if we do this the right way?

‘Nuf said….

I know that I like the idea of being able to refinance the loan on my home, even though the market would not allow my home to appraise for the purchase price.

Why not? After all, I’ve never missed a payment, even at the higher rate. I’m a good borrower. I’d love to get 4.3% interest!

Heck, I just did it with my car. I went to a different lender and asked if I could give them the balance of my loan. They did it and it saved me 30% of my monthly costs.

Well, a proposed law would allow you refinance your home, even if you can’t get an appraisal for what you bought the home. You would have to have an FHA, or government backed, loan. There will certainly be other limitations, I’m sure.

It is called “Blanket Refinancing.” See more here and here. There are not many details as of yet.

So, this is the question that I want to throw out to you: Is this a good idea?

On one side, it will lower costs for 30 million home owners. Maybe they can start spending the money they save in the economy and get the economy moving again.

On the other side, the bond markets already reacted negatively when this idea was floated previously. If people don’t want to invest in bond markets because they are afraid that government interference could have some negative consequences on their profits, then maybe this could have some unintended consequences. Also, would it cost even more for our already-indebted federal government?

I don’t pretend to understand how this could be bad (or good) for the bond markets and, therefore, you and me….yet.

I will keep an eye on this and report more to you as I learn more. Stay tuned…

Remember a couple weeks ago how I said that markets are driven by consumer confidence and that after a couple weeks of better news people will start spending part of that pent-up savings?

Perhaps this is one of those indicators. A stock market news and commentary website is suggesting that Phoenix real estate is a good investment, citing that our economy always bounces back.

Other news sources are reporting initial upswings in new home construction.

I reject all of the double-dip recession talk. In fact, the recent increase in the stock market seems to have thrown that in to serious doubt. I certainly rejected the talk of a wave of new foreclosed properties flooding the market.

Maybe going in to the holidays we will start having some good news. That would be a nice synergy: holiday spending mixed with higher consumer confidence and really, really low home prices.

Quick update!

Please see this PDF file for a list of all 32 homes that are on the Group Open House tour tomorrow, Sunday, October 3rd.

This Group Open House covers the whole valley. Please have a look and visit a few homes! This is a buyer’s market, so this is the time to look!