Here’s a hoot. Read these two articles and you will see why so many people are confused about the market right now.

The Phoenix Business Journal from Tuesday, April 19th:

This article is telling us that home prices have dropped again. “The median sales price for existing homes in the Phoenix area was down to $125,000 in March, according to new Arizona State University numbers.”

“ASU economist and real estate professor Jay Butler reports March’s existing home price was down from $127,500 in February and $142,500 in March 2010.”

The Arizona Republic from Tuesday, April 19th:

This article is telling us that home prices have remained stable. “The median price of resales in metro Phoenix has held steady at $115,000 since December.”

Luckily both articles tell us that the number of foreclosures are down

Business Journal: “There were 4,100 foreclosures this March compared to 4,400 a year ago.”

Arizona Republic: “Although foreclosures continue to drive the market, signs indicate those could soon start to decline.”

What do we take from this? I’d say you need to buy based on your needs, not on thinking of the real estate market like a stock market. We are still at all-time low prices, but they are climbing. We are still at all-time low interest rates, but they are climbing.

Let me know if I can help. 602-456-9388

I’ve been saying for months that the number of foreclosures has been going down. Yet the Arizona Republic would continue to print misleadingly false news.

Well, they have finally reported what is really happening. In this article they finally say that the notices of trustee sales (notices of foreclosures) is going down.

Background: When somebody stops making payments on their house, they get a notice of foreclosure. If they don’t pay up, they are foreclosed on and they go to a trustee sale on the courthouse steps. If nobody buys the property at auction, the bank puts it on the market as a foreclosed property.

So, see in this chart that the number of foreclosure notices has been going down since September of last year, quite dramatically!

In case you are thinking, “Well the foreclosures go down because more people are short selling instead.” Nope. First, you get a trustee notice before you short sell, so this informs that, too.

Second, see in this chart that the number of foreclosures has been going down and the number of normal sales is going up. This is because, in part, people are avoiding foreclosure after they get their notices. It is also because there is an increased number of renovated properties on the market. These sell as regular sales.

So there, Arizona Republic!

What does this mean? Prices will start moving upward during this summer buying season. Let’s hope interest rates don’t go up, as well!

I’m helping a friend list this charming 1925 bungalow in the Coronado neighborhood. This porch is perfect for hanging out and enjoying the morning, reading the paper, iPad, Kindle, Nook, or whatever readin medium you prefer.

Click on the picture below to see the listing.

This is a 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,600 square foot brick home that is walking distance to restaurants all along 7th St. It is a quick hop on the freeways and a short bike ride to light rail. The kitchen is roomy and there is space to move around.

Call me at 602-456-9388 with questions.

Well, it’s been a long time in the making, but I’ve got a new website.

Now you can:

1) Find more information about Get Your PHX events.

2) More blog posts, news and analysis.

3) Log on and instantly to search the real estate market in the entire valley. There is sooooo much more power in this website!

4) Access pre-made searches for everything from historic homes to those super-cheap condos around town.

Let me elaborate on #3.

On my previous site you could see some searches, but only the criteria that I create for you. Click on “Search the Entire Valley” and you will be able to define your own searches!

I’m even opening up the blog to contributors who want to share thoughts ideas and experiences about how they “Get Their PHX”. So, have a look. Poke around.

Send me your thoughts!

Cheers,

Ken

I can’t let this article go by. Fortune Magazine says that it is time to get bullish about the housing market again. Read the entire thing here. It is worth a read!

Here is a summary of their arguments:

1) The historic drop in construction is leaving a void. People still need houses and they have not been built. Further, the steep decline in prices from 2006 (from 30% to 55%) has created an affordability that will bring buyers back in to the market.

2) It is cheaper to buy than to rent. Plus the portion of income devoted to buying a house is down to 9.8% from 17.2% in 2007.

3) Even in distressed areas like Phoenix, there are so few new construction homes entering the market that the former glut of foreclosures is getting eaten up.

The article likens the increase in demand to raising cattle: the increased demand will not be met immediately by new construction. In other words, prices will start going up again.

I’m glad that somebody is out there countering the constant doom and gloom of the Arizona Republic. For me, the proof has always been in the data. See this chart, below, from the Cromford Report. This comes directly from the MLS data. Phoenix has seen a decrease in foreclosed properties (REO) and short sale properties week over week since December.

I think Fortune Magazine is correct. It is time to reconsider the market!

If you’ve read my blog much you’ve seen that I have a more positive view of where the market is going than, say, the Arizona Republic.

You may be asking, “When is a good time to buy in Phoenix?”

Well, pretty much any time now. Below are some data-based reasons why you should feel comfortable buying a house this year. This information is based on The Cromford Report, which is data aggregated directly from the Multi-Listing Service, the most accurate account of sales in the market.

1) Combating the myth: “The Wave of Foreclosures”

A whole army of chicken littles out there like to tell you that there is a “wave of foreclosures” coming down the pipe. This chart should tell you just how wrong that prediction is. You can see how the general trend has been downward since 2009. It is important to note that it is not in the banks’ interest to allow too many foreclosures on the market all at once. That would depress prices and mean fewer golf trips for the bank executives.

2) Pending Foreclosures

“But aren’t there a bunch of people who are likely to foreclose soon?” Well, fewer now than any time since March of 2009, actually. Further, as the economy slowly improves fewer people will foreclose on their homes. See below how the number of pending foreclosures is going down quite dramatically now.

3) Myth #2: “Prices are going to drop again.”

So, knowing what you see above, it makes sense when you see that prices are higher now than the lowest point in the market, back in April of 2009, and are edging toward the 2010 averages. HINT: The high buying season in Phoenix is always the summer. So, watch for prices to keep going up. Further, people are saving an average of 6% of their monthly income (compared to about 1% a few years ago). Once they hear enough good economic news, they are going to start spending that pent-up money on big-ticket items (read: “houses”).

4) Days Inventory

How am I sure prices will go up? Well, when inventory goes down, prices go up. Its Econ 101. Here’s the trend! Inventory is going down! “Days Inventory” means how long would it take to exhaust all of the inventory of houses at the current rate of sales in Phoenix. We are at about 140 days right now.

5) Sales per Month

Want another reason? The sales per month are going up. So, when inventory goes down and sales go up what happens? Prices go up. I said it here! It won’t be dramatic, but prices will go up. Interest rates are going up now, too (over a point in the last 2 months). If you want to grab something before both interest rates and prices go up, now is the time to make it happen!

Is is time to buy in Phoenix yet? The answer is “yes”, you can feel safe making that decision. We can watch the market together. Call me at 602-456-9388.

I was reading this hilarious post today by an agent sharing the ABCs of what she’s learned over the years. It’s probably funnier if you are an agent or if you’ve bought a house.

But the blogger mentioned how Zillow and real estate sites like them generate home price estimates, which are most often incorrect, but which many people take as gospel.

This is particularly important when buying or selling home in Phoenix. The market changes so rapidly that you don’t want to get the wrong information about home prices.

The CEO of Zillow was smart enough to respond to this agent’s post and pointed people to a page where they declare how accurate they are. He also said clearly that “agents or appraisers will always be more accurate than a computer model.”

See an image from that page, below.

You can see that in Maricopa county only 20% of Zestimates are within 5% of sales price. The median error is about 14%. So, a house worth $200,000 could show up on their system as $228,000 or as low as $172,000. That is a huge difference!

Lesson: if you want to buy or sell a home, get an agent who will get you on the Multi-Listing Service where the sales numbers are more accurate than any other option. I can help you by calling me at 602-456-9388.

This data comes from my friends at Old Republic Title and Escrow and pertains only to the single family detached market (i.e. not condos, patio homes or townhomes).

In short, homes below $100,000 are moving very quickly, but they are so competitive that the low prices are skewing all of the data to obscure the fact that higher priced homes are actually moving upward.

February saw the highest sales volume in recorded history.

Market Headlines

• We see falling supply and improved demand, especially at the low end.
• Below $100,000 demand is now exceptionally strong.
• High activity at the bottom of the market is dragging the overall sales price average $/SF down
• This is especially true of the median sales price which is misleadingly low due to the sales mix.
• Sales prices are stabilizing, though the monthly median may still fall if the mix continues to favor the low end.
• Statistics suggest a very busy spring season especially for price ranges under $200,000.

Overview
The new trends that started in December continue to strengthen. Active listing counts are moving down while sales and pending sales increase rapidly. Sales volumes through ARMLS are at their highest level ever for February.

Average sales pricing reached a new low point in January and has moved sideways since, but there is now a confirmed and significant improvement in the overall market dynamics. The drop in average and (especially) median pricing is NOT across the board but is caused by an unusual spike in the volume of sales at the bottom end of the market.

This improved demand for the cheapest homes is a welcome, but we must remember that it makes the median price numbers look artificially bad.

For the first time for many months we can report a fall in supply at the low end, and above $100,000 supply has been falling for some time. In the mid and upper ranges we see strong evidence of sales price stability and inventory is in a slow decline even though demand is quite modest.

If you think ol’ Ken Clark is just unrealistically optimistic about the market, check out this very interesting article in the Wall Street Journal.

In Brief: 2011 will most likely be the turn-around point for the residential housing market.

Exhibit A: “Nationally, the cost of a house is the equivalent of about 19 months of total pay for an average family, the lowest level in 35 years.” This market will recover when people can start buying houses again. Given that there is  pent-up savings in America right now, and people are increasingly confident that they will keep or regain a job, they are more likely to get out and take advantage of the low prices.

Exhibit B: “Investors have started to buy up houses and condos, in some instances paying entirely in cash.” Well, we’ve seen that for a while here in Phoenix. I’ve been helping folks buy houses to use as investments or as second homes. The key here is that investors are betting on a rebound, and unlike 2006, they are doing it without debt. You can’t default on something you own outright. So, this recovery has a chance to be much more stable.

The WSJ advice? Buy and hold. the housing market is not the stock market. Buy because you need a place to live (and don’t want to pay rent anymore), or buy with a long-term investment strategy.

Give me a call at 602-456-9388 and I’ll help you put together your plan to take advantage of this market.

Last week I posted market data which showed that there was shrinking inventory and that homes were staying on the market for less time.

I want to tell you this week about interest rates. You’ve probably heard that interest rates are climbing again. In just the last two months, they have gone up from about 5% to 5.25%. At their lowest point last year they were at about 4.25%.

This is huge. While interest rates are at their lowest point in centuries (really), every incremental change increases the cost of owning a home. We have every indication that rates are going to keep moving upward.

For instance, if you buy a $100,000 house at 5.5% interest, your monthly payment (before taxes and insurance) would be $568. The same house at 6% interest would cost $600 per month.

That extra $32 per month is $384 per year or $11,520 over the life of the loan!

Another way to look at it is that in order to have the same payment every month that you had at 5.5% interest, you could only afford a house that costs $95,000 at 6% interest.

So, what does this mean? It means that you want to consider getting in to the market before interest rates go up.

It also means that you probably want to act before both prices and interest rates go up. That is to be avoided!

Give me a call. I’m more than happy to help you navigate the market: 602-456-9388.