Here’s the October Market Report from my friend Cynthia Lujan at Old Republic Title. 

Enjoy, my fellow data geeks!

Market Headlines

·         A big contrast exists between the market under $200,000 and the market above that figure

·         Enthusiastic buying below $100,000 is causing significant price rises as inventory becomes tight.

·         Above $200,000 the market continues to deteriorate slightly.

·         Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.

·         The overall average for sales pricing is now on an upward trend.

·         REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

1.       Homes under $100,000

Summary: Supply getting tight and now constraining the market. Prices are rising and are now 2% higher than last year.

The sales count in this price range dipped 5% between September and October but is still over 40% higher than October 2010. Pending sales are down by nearly 8%compared with last month and are 28% higher than last year. The sales volume is now limited by the low supply. In fact this is the only price range where supply fell last month, down 4.6% and now 49% below this time last year.

2.      Homes Between $100,000 and $200,000

Summary: Supply edges up and demand weakens. However pricing is very stable and now trending slightly higher.

Supply increased by 2.1% over the past month but is still down 2.6% compared with 3 months ago and 47% compared with this time last year. Lender owned active listings are down by 70% over the last 12 months while short sale listings are down 42% and normal listings are down 39%.

3.       Homes Between $200,000 and $400,000

Summary: Supply is higher and demand is fading. Nevertheless, pricing remains stable at the moment.

The supply of single family homes priced between $200,000 and $400,000 increased by 4.2% between September 26 and October 26 and is now up 6% over the last three months. However it is down 30.4% over the last year. Over the last month REO supply fell by 1.3%, short sales and pre-foreclosures fell by 4.8% and normal listings was where all the growth came, increasing by 9.8%.

4.       Homes Between $400,000 and $800,000

Summary: Supply is up and demand is down. Sales prices dropped in September but now appear to have stabilized.

Single family homes between $400,000 and $800,000 have seen active listings grow 8% over the last month and 12% over the last 3 months. This is still down 24% compared with this time last year, but this is just one of many signals that the dynamics of this price range are starting to deteriorate. The sales volume weakened again in October, with monthly sales down 7% compared with September and also down 7% compared with October 2010. Pending sales fell by 5.1% over the last month and are now a remarkable 22% below last year.

5.       Homes over $800,000

Summary: The luxury market remains weak. Supply is growing while demand is muted.

We have a mixed picture this month for the luxury market. The monthly sales rate was 18% higher than last year but pending sales are down 17% compared with last October and 19.5% lower than three months ago. Demand has still not recovered from the steep drop off which coincided with the debt limit crisis and the stock market decline in July. Supply is on the rise, up 7.2% over the last month although still 25%

You’ve probably noticed by now that I am a huge fan of reuse and re-purposing in Phoenix. With all the available space downtown, why not?

The Cathedral Town homes are a great example of adaptive reuse. This building, which used to be owned by the church across the street as rental property, has transformed in to elegant and (actually spacious) urban condos.

The developer, Metro West Development,  took an historic 1913 building and converted it into four modern townhouse-style condo’s ranging in size from 1,674 to 1,886 square feet. Located about 200 feet away from the Arts District light rail stop, the condos are just a short walk from dozens of local restaurants, markets, large entertainment venues, as well as Hance and the Downtown Civic Space Parks.  And though the neighborhood surrounding is great, it’s what’s inside that really gets me excited.

Metro West Development has a history of great work in downtown renovations. The Cathedral Townhomes have been stripped to the bone and rebuilt.  While these homes have been updated, the developer has gone the extra mile to maintaining a historical feel. Homes come with new Kohler fixtures, quartz kitchen countertops, double hung windows (many original that have been restored), and historically accurate high baseboards.

Through the years, I’ve seen many renovations and I’m genuinely impressed by this one. Three of the units are still available. The condos are currently priced in the $200s with a 140/mo HOA fee.

I don’t represent these homes, but I’m happy to show you. Please contact me at 602-456-9388

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Well, its market analysis time again. That’s right, gear up because I’m going to throw some wonky charts at you. Don’t be too intimidated. I promise to be gentle.
It’s short and sweet, really. The number of pending foreclosures continues to go down. The entire pie is shrinking, leaving an increasing percentage of the pie as short sale homes. So let’s get down to business and see what I’m really talking about.

“REO” you’re probably wondering what does that mean? Simply just a fancy term for a foreclosed property.
“AWC” simply means Active with Contingencies. In other words it is simply a short sale home. The buyer has already agreed upon the price yet, their waiting on the bank for the final decision.Have you noticed a trend yet? All of the categories are shrinking therefore the inventory of homes, are going down.
What’s going to happen next you ask? The prices start to go up because scarcity creates demand.

The numbers of pending foreclosures are taking a dive and it doesn’t look pretty.
Have you heard about the new wave foreclosures based on nation-wide estimates of how many people are slacking on their house payment? This is completely misleading for three reasons:

1.   Nation-wide averages are not Arizona.
2. It is easy to double count those people who are late, but not in foreclosures and those who are late and in foreclosures.
3. Finally, the banks will not sell more properties than the market will bear. Hello everyone.  They want the prices to go up, not down.

Heck, if the banks are sitting on a bunch of homes. Please let them out! My clients who are on their 6^th offer after being beat out by cash buyers would love to see some more homes in their horizon!
What does all of this mean for you? It means that the market is becoming more competitive and the days of low-balling on prices are long gone.

If you have more questions about the market, please contact me at  (602) 456-9388

I gotta say. I’m really shocked that this $29,900, 2br/1.75ba, 1,100sqft condo is still on the market.

I don’t represent this property. But I do live at this condo complex and I think anybody should beg, borrow or steal to live here –especially if you are looking for something very inexpensive. I’ve been inside. It looks almost like nobody lived there.

Click here for the listing information. Call me if you have questions: 602-456-9388.

The downtown scene is an eclectic mix of cultures and communities that we’ve grown to know and love. For one important downtown organization, which helps homeless LGBTQ youth get back on their feet, there has been a quiet change in leadership.

1in10 has officially brought Linda Elliot in as the new executive director in July. Linda, a successful business woman, is well known for her work in the Human Rights Campaign. She is an influential person in AZ politics. She, and her partner, Carolyn Lane, a Maricopa Country Constable, are an inspiring couple.

In truth, 1in10 has been around since the early nineties. You may have known them as VOIT and Horizons, both of which specialized in LGBTQ youth. In 2002, these two fantastic organizations joined forces to create 1n10, which supports LGBTQ youth in Arizona as well as nationally through “positive self-acceptance through life enhancing programs.”

One of those programs is the OUTdoors camp which is one of the largest LGBTQ summer programs in the world.

(Does anybody else see the irony of one of the largest summer LGBTQ camps in the world being located in AZ? We should be proud.)

OUTdoors, which 1in10 describes as a youth leadership camp, is like many other summer camps, full of zip lining, horseback riding, and crafts, but works on developing leadership skills, collaboration and communication with campers to help better their community.

Two months into her new position, Linda has been a busy lady pursuing grants and new programs. In addition to the OUTdoors, 1n10 provides weekly group events in the Valley, and hopes to expand with a new leadership and training programs and guest speakers to inspire youth and create a “fun, safe, social space”.  She “hit the ground running,” according to Stacey Jay Cavaliere, Program Coordinator for this weekend’s Sources of Strength Celebration.

The event will be held this First Friday at the Downtown Civic Space Park. 1n10 is raising money to launch a new suicide prevention campaign by showcasing their musical talents, which includes the 1n10 hip hop squad, and youth art, displayed at the Fair Trade Cafe. Their hope is to get people and businesses all over the Valley to attend and show their support.

1n10 continues to reach out to the community for partners to help us in their efforts. If you’re interested in learning more information please visit www.1n10.org

Have a Charity you love. Visit My Charity Refferal Page to find out how you can help your favorite local charity.

As those of us with steak sauce stained shirts and full bellies already know, the fourth annual Arizona Restaurant week is in full swing. This year, over 200 restaurants are offering prix-fixe menus to hungry patrons looking for a deal.

All the restaurants are offering three course meals for $20, $30 or $40 person, excluding drinks, tax and tip. There are even some places offering two for $30.

Photo Courtesy of the Arizona Restaurant Week

As some of you may recall, when restaurant week started in 2008 there were less than 100 valley restaurants involved. But at $29 a meal, patrons rolled in by the hundreds. By 2009, the celebration had spread all the way to Tucson and this year they are state wide with four restaurants in Flagstaff.

Of course, you don’t have to pack up the whole family to enjoy a fantastic meal. Some of the finest dining restaurant week has to offer is from Phoenix food institutions.

Durant’s, which opened in 1955, is a swanky, old-school, red leather booth, seafood and steak house that serves a classic menu and great drinks. As jack Durant said himself “Good friends, Good Steaks, and the Best Booze, are the necessities of life,” If you agree, Durant’s is the place for you this restaurant week.

Pie at Stockyards - Picture Courtesy of AZCentral

If you’re a meat and potatoes kind of person, Stockyards is “Arizona’s Original Steak house.”   Stockyards started as a favorite meeting place for local cattlemen, bankers and politicians. If your looking for the taste of history, Stockyard joined the historical registrar in 2004 and will be helping Arizona celebrate its centennial this February. Or just skip the history and try one of their six restaurant week desserts.

Avanti, open in 1974, is classic Italian at its best. The romantic, zebra striped restaurant is still owned by the two original partners from Sorrento, Italy and is known for its impeccable food and unbelievable service.

If you’re looking to soak in Arizona in all its glory, you have to hit up El Chorro. Originally opened in 1937, El Chorro Lodge sits at the base of the Mummy Mountains offering classic Arizonan inspired cuisine. Many will agree with me when I say the best part of El Chorro’s restaurant week menu has to be their Gooey Caramel Cake which has been tempting patrons for years.

Courtesy of El Chorro Restaurant

Of course there are our favorites. Christopher’s and Crush is a new comer, with only three years on the block, but their hip atmosphere keeps patrons coming back for more. For you locavores, St Francis is offering fresh, rustic cuisine from local farms and even better kids eat FREE.  Ticoz Resto-Bar offers Latin-Arizonan Fusion cuisine, not to mention to die for tacos, for those of us looking to spice up our life.

Dining in Phoenix can be a wonderful adventure. With only 9 Days to work through the complete Restaurant Week menu, you can expect to see everyone out for a great meal at these Arizona standbys.

http://arizonarestaurantweek.com/participating-restaurants/

The City of Phoenix is now offering a $15,000 loan towards closing costs and down payment to purchase a newly renovated “Move-in Ready” homes through their Neighborhood Stabilization Program.

The Neighborhood Stabilization Program is an effort in response to the number of vacant foreclosures in Phoenix neighborhoods. Housing programs are popping up all over the Southwest in hopes of turning foreclosures into affordable, refurbished homes and enhancing neighborhood curb appeal.

NSP is offering an extensive catalog of renovated properties in established neighborhoods as well as providing guidance through the entire process.

To qualify, home buyers must meet these requirements:

1. Applicants must meet the income guidelines for household Family size. For Example, A family of 4 must have an income at or below $78,600 annually to receive the loan.
2. Candidate should be able to qualify for a 15 or 30 year fixed mortgage
3. Though you don’t have to be a first time home owner, you can’t currently be on title on any residential property.
4. Applicants must be able to contribute one half of the home’s required cash down payment for a min. $1,000. For example, a $100,000 home would require a $1750 down payment.
5. All loan hopefuls have to take a two hour one-on-one credit counseling and an 8 hour home buyer education class

A word of caution: I have helped buyers through this program. Half of the time it went smoothly and relatively quickly. The other half of the time it took longer and everybody was pulling their hair out. Now, to be fair, that was mostly because the listing agent’s contractors were not doing the basic things that the city inspectors asked of them.

Further, that was in 2010. Now NSP has homes that are already renovated. So, this is a whole new world from when the program just got started.

Regardless, families state-wide are in a great position to be homeowners in great phoenix neighborhoods. My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans let me know all about this program and, as a mentioned a few weeks ago, she is experienced in these loans and could be a huge help in the process.

You can visit www.phoenix.gov/nsphome to view the Move In Ready list of available homes or give me a call today at 602-456-9388.

It was nice to see this article in the Arizona Republic yesterday talking about a “rebound” in the condo market in Phoenix.

I don’t know if I would go so far as to call it a rebound. In fact, several of the projects the article talks about are still not sold –they turned in to apartment buildings instead.

However, the article does point out something that I’ve been saying for a while: an increasing number of people want that dense, urban experience. That is why 44 Monroe, for example, filled up with renters so quickly.

So, while you can still get a great condo downtown and in CenPho right now for much, much less than you could in 2006, and while the market for condos has not completely righted itself it is true that the inventory of condos in CenPho has dropped sharply over the past year. They are being gobbled up!

This demand should be an indicator to anybody, whether buying a house or a condo, that urban centers are going to be in great demand once the market stabilizes. If you are holding on to your house to sell later, have hope. If you are thinking about getting in to CenPho, now is a good time because it will be more expensive a year from now.

I’ve made the jump from John Hall to HomeSmart. I’m sure this means nearly nothing to most of you. But I want to explain to you why and what this means.

I chose to work with my former broker, John Hall & Associates, because they were locally owned. Re/Max, Realty Executives, Century 21 –these are all nation-wide broker and really, really big companies.

But, like many of you, I believe that we need to keep our dollars in our local economy. The fees that brokers take from agents could go to some corporate headquarters somewhere in Ohio, or they could stay here and add to our economy. This is why I am a member of Local First Arizona and I support locally-owned businesses.

Well, John Hall sold itself to a company called Realty One Group, out of Nevada. It did not take me long to realize that this was in opposition to what I believe.

I was happy to learn, however, that HomeSmart is locally owned and originates in Arizona. They have well over 1,000 agents and a very effective system for processing transactions.

This means little or nothing to you, the buyer or seller. But I want you to know that, even in decisions like this, I am committed to CenPho and my state.

I appreciate your business.

I’ve had first time home buyer clients who are frustrated by how much distressed property there is in the market. They can’t afford a renovated home, but they can’t afford to fix up the property on their own.

Well, there is an answer.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) offers homebuyers the opportunity to secure a loan known as a 203(k) loan. This loan is administered through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and gives homebuyers the necessary funds to rehabilitate a home.

Many times, a bank will be hesitant and may reject lending money when the home is not habitable. This is where the 203(k) loan comes into play and can help homebuyers obtain the necessary funds to not only buy the home but to purchase the necessary upgrades to make it habitable.

This loan is an incredible opportunity and is coming into play more now than ever since the housing market took a dive. With many people facing foreclosure, they stripped their house of everything that wasn’t, or was, bolted down leaving the house a complete disaster. This loan gives homebuyers the chance to come in and fix up the house.

This does two things: 1) increases the value of the home and surrounding area and 2) boosts the economy of the community by having another family living and buying in the area.

My friend Jeannie Bolger, of Nova Home Loans is well versed in helping you get these “fixer-upper” loans. Jeannie has been trained to help guide clients through the entire process.

But as with any mortgage, there are some criteria both the homebuyer and the home must meet:

1)      The homebuyer must meet FHA financing guidelines which means a FICO score of 640 or more and a debt to income ratio of 31/43 (see FHA for more info)

2)      The home must be the primary residence

3)      For the home to qualify, it must be existing for more than one year

4)      The work must be completed by a Licensed General Contractor – sorry do-it-yourselfers

5)      Work starts after you close on the home and must be completed within 6 months

There are also two types of 203(k)s that homeowners can choose from depending on the extent of the work required:

1)      Streamline 203(k) – this includes uncomplicated repairs and improvements to home up to $35,000 and no more than 2 subcontractors needed for entire project

2)      Standard 203K – this is for major repairs and improvements along with structural improvements to property exceeding $35,000 – up to 6 months PITI (principle, interest, taxes and insurance) can be included in mortgage if property cannot be occupied during construction. A Licensed General Contractor is needed if layered work is involved

These 203(k) loans are a great way to get our housing market back up and running. With a wide selection of homes in the Central Phoenix area, there is something for everyone.

And don’t forget, the Realtor, Lender, HUD Consultant and Contractor will hold your hand throughout the WHOLE process.

If you would like more information on the 203(k) loan, or just on homes in CenPho, give me a call today at 602-456-9388.