With ASU’s 2^nd annual Phoenix Urban Design Week just three weeks away (April 4^th and 5^th), the Feast on the Street Saturday, April 13^th, bringing together people around a half-mile long dining table in downtown Phoenix, historic preservation a constant need (last year’s coffee-table book showcases the importance of preserving Midcentury modern buildings), and the need for more sustainable green practices, I got to thinking:

What are some of the most important steps a person should take if they’re thinking of buying a home in the urban revitalization we’re witnessing in downtown Phoenix?

Step 1:   Get involved with groups like Local First AZ, Roosevelt Row, Get Your PHX, and Phoenix Spokes People (urban bicycle action group with 450+ members, intent on making our streets safer for bicyclists).

Step 2:  Condo or House? I wrote about this in August last year and it’s just as relevant today.

Step 3:  Take a walk, ride, or bike through our Historic Districts.

Step 4:  Familiarize yourself with the schools. This handy link lets you search by closest intersection.

Step 5:  Where are the best coffee houses? Which ones have wi-fi? Arizona Coffee has a great city-wide list with links, reviews, interviews, etc. My office is conveniently located in monOrchid, right next to Songbird café, which I highly recommend.

When you stop by, poke your head into my office not 10 feet away and say hello! I’d love to share some more urban tips with you about finding a home in downtown or central Phoenix.

Ken Clark, Realtor
602-456-9388

Quick announcement: I earned the HomeSmart Diamond Club award for 2012. In the eyes of HomeSmart, I bought or sold an impressive amount of property for my clients in 2012. I’m particularly proud of this because I started as an agent just about the time the recession started. I did that on purpose. I knew that if I was tough enough to make it through the rough times, I would be that much better an agent for my clients (and myself) when times got better. I know that I made the right decision.

Foreclosed properties are almost down to long-term, “normal” levels. There is no shadow inventory. But you’ve heard me tell you why a hundred times by now. In February, there were fewer than 1,000 recorded residential trustee deeds in Maricopa County for the first time since September 2007.

But if you want to understand the most important driver of cost, you need to look at inventory, which we do regularly here. See the chart, above. See how the average days on market for all homes has dropped from over 160 in early 2011 to about 60 today. This number is lower for cheaper properties and lower for homes in CenPho, in many cases. 

So, what happens when inventory goes down? Price goes up! 

Expect more of that, as home builders are still not building as quickly as they once did. Most importantly, they are not building in the CenPho area. Further, people who might have been thinking of selling are hearing about price increases and they may be holding off, hoping for even higher prices before they sell. We really need those houses on the market to keep prices from rising too quickly. (Price increases are good, but not when they create the conditions for another bubble!)

Further, further, sellers are listing their houses at inflated prices just to see who will bite –people are biting and appraisers are supporting those prices.

Further, further, further, interest rates continue to stay low. So there are a ton buyers for very few houses. What do you do? If you are a buyer, don’t hesitate. Get out there. If you are a seller, I would not wait too long either. I think we have the makings of a mini-bubble. There is an equal chance that you could wait to list your home only to find that mini-bubble burst and prices are lower than they are today.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

Last week, we saw how understanding relevant data is vital to how I inform my gut instincts as an agent.

This week, let’s look at how data on historic neighborhoods informs my gut and how what I’m seeing in several “overflow areas” plays into it. Homes in historic neighborhoods are getting more and more expensive, and they will continue to do so as people who value those homes will continue to buy just outside the historic areas. Why? Simply because there is a finite number of them and more people want homes with that character.

So, over-time more people have renovated historic neighborhoods that neighbor the original historic neighborhoods. The supply increases.

This “spillover” dynamic has given us our 35 historic neighborhoods. Specifically, neighborhoods that were seen as “not ready for prime time” are improving right next to the current neighborhoods.

The first historic neighborhood in Phoenix was Roosevelt. Garfield, FQ Story, Willow, Encanto, Palmcroft, and others followed. People around them started saying:

Wait, we have older homes. We either don’t want to or we can’t afford to buy in the historic districts. Or, we believe our neighborhood is unique historically. Let’s apply for historic designation here.

The number of neighborhoods with historic designation has been increasing over the last 30 years, and very dramatically over the last 10 years. Because of my expertise, immersion in the data, and instincts, I know where the spillover is going to happen next. I’m seeing a lot of renovation in areas which you should not pass over for consideration when looking for a home.

Another thing to look for are the “historic-adjacent” neighborhoods. These may never get historic designation, but they benefit from their proximity to historic neighborhoods.

Example: the Woodlea and Melrose districts at 7^th avenue.

The northern of Woodlea is Glenrosa Ave. Technically, north of Glenrosa is not historic because not enough people maintained the original condition of their homes there and not enough people wanted it to be historic.  Homes in the non-historic neighborhood, are much more expensive and enjoy greater stability than they woiuld if they weren’t right next to the historic neighborhood of Woodlea.

What about the east side of 7^th AVe where the houses are very similar to the ones on 7^th Avenue? Unfortunately, they don’t have that historic designation to benefit from.

I’m seeing neighborhoods that were formerly avoided to some degree by agents, but we’re starting to see some good renovations.

Specifically, I’m seeing a lot of renovations in the listings west of 19^th avenue, south of Indian School, and as far south as Encanto. These have a lot of navy brick homes, which are hard to find and very sturdy. New home construction is too expensive and almost never brick. Brick is more stable, better for deterring termites. These were homes built in the 1940’s and 1950’s for the most parts.

I’m also seeing some nice renovations in the area of 24^th street and Thomas; also brick homes. In some areas it’s street by street, where one street is great—with a lot of renovations—and the next street isn’t so good. Another area where I’m seeing a lot of renovation is east of 16^th street, west of the 51 freeway, and south of Indian School. Even compared to a year ago, it’s improved noticeably. It’s happening in that area because it’s spilling over from the Coronado historic neighborhood (which is getting oversold: too many buyers, not enough houses), so people that aren’t finding things under $200,000 are pushing over to the 16^th street areas.

That area has been a little rough in past years, but you’re going to start seeing more and more renovations just outside of the traditional historic neighborhoods, because the historic neighborhoods are pricing higher. Classic supply and demand. You might consider looking into these 16^th street areas because of the action that’s going on there.

There are other neighborhoods further to the east that are going up in price as well, on the other side of the 51, going all the way over to Scottsdale. Give me a call if you’re curious about that.

Shoot, give me a call if you’re curious about other historic spillover areas you’ve got on your mind as well.

I look forward to talking with you. I can be reached at 602-456-9388

This week I want to talk about how data informs my gut sense. What does it mean when I talk about different types of ‘data’ in my posts? A hugely reliable source of my data comes from The Cromford Report.  The Cromford Report takes data directly from the Multi-Listing Service, which is the most accurate report of sales in Arizona. In this next graphic, you’ll see what the Cromford Index does. Two things you need to know about this chart on Phoenix for the last 30 days:  Above 100 and below 100.

Look at the two gauges on the left and right sides. Anything over 100 is a seller’s market. If the arrow is in the green, it’s good for sellers; red, it’s good for buyers. As you can see from the 30-day chart at the bottom of the graphic, the supply is really flat right now. That’s because we’re not getting a new supply of homes into the available inventory, which means it’s a seller market. Between buyers (the Supply Index gauge on the left) and sellers (Demand Index gauge on the right) you’ll see demand is pretty flat (in the yellow zone). In an ideal world, buyers and sellers are equal in getting what they want.

 Macro

This chart below is for Phoenix, for the last couple years.

You can see here, in the pink, that it became better for sellers in 2011. It’s at over 100, so it’s better for sellers. Since 2011, it’s been increasingly better for sellers, there was a little drop off at Christmas 2012, but then it’s popping up again. The long-term Crawford Index tells us that things have been getting better for sellers for a while –for much longer than the media was reporting.

Can I get any worthwhile information on just a month worth of data, or must I have a year’s worth of data to be able to offer any real value?

With the Crawford stuff, you have to look at the micro and the macro, balance them out, and end up with the gut feeling (many authors on decision making whom I’ve read say that the gut reaction is the more accurate than we might think). You have to be in the business and see lots of data to get that gut sense.

Micro micro

Check this out, we can look at zip codes also in The Cromford Index.  Isn’t that cool? This is a micro-micro example of using data. This data shown in the chart below is for $100,000 to $250,000 on Phoenix zip codes for 85003, 85004, 85005, 85012, 85013, 85015. This is SFR in Maricopa county. It’s a 6-months moving sales, and it’s really janky because there aren’t that many homes in that price range.  It’s a pretty small area for home prices.

I have used this kind of data in the past (3/26/10 – “Data is right. Media is wrong” and 8/25/09 – “Can I Say I Told You So?” to make my cases about I saw (based on the data) and felt (based on my gut instincts) was going to occur.

Was I right just because of the data?

Not at all. I took the data and used it to get the gut instinct. You’ve seen me put up images of supply, inventory, and demand, on this posts and in the past, and you’ll see them in posts to come, but what I’ve found is you use the macro and the micro data, but in the end you have to go with your gut.

Next week, we’re going to talk about data as it relates to up and coming areas. I can tell you now what my gut instincts tells me:

The micro data shows price increases, but I also know that people are getting priced out of historic neighborhoods, so they’re going next door. I know those neighborhoods. And not just from an aesthetic perspective, but from gut instinct.

Give me a call, buy or sell.  Go with your gut.

In part four, we discussed the different local credit unions and how their Health Savings Accounts work. Now, we’ll discuss how to select the best credit union based on brokerage account services.

A brokerage account is like a money market account, but from it you can buy stocks, sell stocks or buy mutual funds.So it’s like a health savings account except the money is for investment or portfolio items. Like an HSA, there’s a firewall. The reason – credit and the bank should remain separate.

For example, if you are on your  JPWellsComeriBank account online and want to look at your brokerage account, the website will open a new window and take you to that separate brokerage website. With Desert Schools Credit Union, they will personally connect you with a financial services company who will set up your account services, etc. You can set up your account on Desert Schools to make automatic bill pays to your brokerage account, as well. Though you still must login to the brokerage accounts from a different website than your Desert Schools website. The two businesses are separate, but they are more integrated on a personal level.

When I called Desert Schools Credit Union, I was directed to financial services, and spoke with a representative immediately. He told me about what they had, that he’d look at my portfolio, and help me get the changes set up from my national bank. Now, when I did this over at Arizona Federal Credit Union, they directed me to a woman named Stephanie. I left my number for her, but she never called.

From the perspective of a small business owner, credit unions are all  basically the same. They have the same fee structure and basically the same offerings. The thing that really differentiates one credit union from another one is customer service. If I own a business, I want my banker to be on the phone and someone who knows me. Why am I leaving JPWellsComeriBank? Because they’re a big anonymous bank. While the fee structure among different credit unions are nice, as well as the integration of health savings account, they’re not critical. The bottom line for me: What was their customer service like?

In wrapping up this series on credit unions, we’ve taken a close look at the difference, we’ve examinatined them in person, we’ve compared the pros and cons. I can sum up the most satisfying part of this process in one example which really captures the essesnce of why I left a big national bank for a local credit union.

The story goes like this:

I went into Wells Fargo to take out my money for the last time and the woman assisting me asked, “Why are you leaving us?”

“Two reasons:” I told her. “I’ve waited too long to put my money where my mouth is and I’m finally going to support a locally owned bank. When I use my money at locally owned businesses, 30% of my money stays in the local economy.”

“But Desert Schools doesn’t have very many ATMs …”

“Are you really playing the ATM card card?”, I asked her, “You know that doesn’t matter. I can just take money out from a cash advance at the grocery store.”

Her response?

“Oh, yeah, I guess so.”

So, there we have it. I thought this process would be longer and more difficult. In some ways it was, but in most ways it is really easy to mover your money to a locally-owned credit union and keep your money where your state is, so to speak.

Good hunting!

The portion of the inventory that is considered distressed is still much smaller than it has been for years, and will continue to be that way.

If you look at the number of listings in the inventory, above, you will see that we had an increase in “normal” listings at the end of last year. That is because people who bought during the really low points or before about 2003 are putting their houses on the market. You see that January inventory is down a little bit.  I’m guessing this is because people think prices will go up, so they are holding off listing. But that’s tough to say –and it is a bit of a gamble for those folks who think they should wait.

Here’s why: while most folks think interest rates will stay where they are this year, I’m also hearing loan officers reporting that rates are starting to go up. You don’t want to try to sell a house while the interest rates are higher. It erases all of the price increase you were waiting for!

Still, you can see in this chart that the prices continue to go up, generally.

This is why you will see fewer investors in the market. First, their ability to get a super cheap house which they can flip up is going away in most areas. Second, it is more difficult to turn that house in to a rental and get cash flow when you bought it at a higher price.

I expect to see more “normal” buyers in the market, as those people who lost their credit scores recover and decide to pick up a new home.

If you are thinking about listing you home (even for short sale), please give me a call and let’s meet. If you are thinking of buying, let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about your plans. We can build a strategy that gets you the home that you are looking for.

Call me at 602-456-9388.

Part 3 ended with the big question, “What are the home builders doing?” I’m going to end my four-part market analysis with this answer and what they tells us as we’ve crossed into 2013 and heading into February already.

At the same conference that was put on for realtors by old Republic, where Mike Orr spoke, the home builders got up on stage. There were five of them and they had this total love-fest among themselves talking about how proud they were, “We’ve got this land out by the San Tans and were going to put like 8,000 homes on it!” And “yeah that’s right! And every one of them is going to have a pool!” They were really proud of themselves because they’re really starting to build 424 a month, 704 per month, 805 a month and they just saw a great future for themselves.

This is where they used to be. And this is where they are now…

Back when I was working for the State Energy Office. We were trying to convince home builders to put energy efficiency improvements in their homes and they were like, “Don’t bother us. We’re too busy.”

This is where they were in 2006. They built 60,000 homes in a year. Way too many for us to absorb.

I think what these guys are going to find, in the next two or three years is that they will never reach that old demand for “sprawl” housing.

Bear with me. I’m going to pontificate a little bit here. As the United States gears up its economy,

and China gears up its economy,

and Europe gears up its economy,

the price for auto fuel is going to go up. I think, it will reach over $5 per gallon, and that is going to affect home buying decisions.

One of the things I learned back at the energy office when I was there is that the price per barrel to get oil out of the ground has only gone up year after year. You may be fracking for natural gas and all that, but you don’t drive a natural gas car, typically, from Ahwatukee to downtown Phoenix, or from Avondale or the San Tans to your job.

So these guys are going to continue building out in the ‘burbs, but they’re going to find, as I have found, that people are less and less enthralled with the idea of living so far out.

So what will that do to home buying decisions?

I think you’re going to see those zip codes that we talked about before continue with an even greater price pressure upward. I think you’re going to see more desire for infill. Unfortunately,  the big developers sitting on the stands, congratulating themselves only want to do 1000+ homes. They’re not interested in doing a little infill project with six homes (which is about the best you can do in central Phoenix). They’re going to have a really hard time putting in new condos until we can continue selling off the ones we built at like $500 per square foot back in the peak of all this.

That’s going to make central Phoenix even more interesting to people.

This is the outlook that Mike Orr presented:

…Because more folks are finding reasons to sell to folks who bought before 2003 and they feel safe to put it back on the market. They’re going to add to the inventory…

…‘Cap Rates’ are their ability to make money off of these investments. So the investors will slow down as those Cap Rates fall. You have to ask yourself, is that going to put me in a situation where we are going to have less and less of a possibility for renters to find a place? We’ll talk about that, shortly…

…and they’ll do it…

Now this is my speculation, which I’m going to separate to make it even clearer that I don’t represent what Mike Orr has to say here.

I think that as you watch those historic neighborhoods that are a walking distance to the light rail (typically considered as between the 7’s; Seventh Avenue and Seventh Street), you’re going to see those prices continue to go up. That’s because builders are in the ‘burbs, not in central Phoenix and the inventory downtown is limited. Like Tempe, it’s landlocked. I think we’re going to see more of that.

Investors: the Cap Rates are going down, so if you’re thinking of investing, I think the window is closing for your potential to get an investment.

Home buyers: the prices will continue to go up, though we don’t know where the interest rates are going to be.

Home sellers: when you look at the charts above, and you think, “Great! The prices are going to continue to go up!” But we think that interest rates are going to stay low for another year, but if you are a home seller and home buyers interest rates go up, their ability to buy your house goes down. You have to keep an eye on that. In other words, this might be a good time for you to sell if you’ve been waiting.

Mike Orr also said that we can expect a rush this month (January 2013). I want to say something about that. Typically, if agents don’t get their sales completed by August, September, or October, they’re going to have a really bad Christmas/Hanukkah. The reason is because it’s slow during the holidays. The last two years, I have hardly had a day off during the holidays because it’s just been so busy. I think Mike could tell you that we don’t expect to have a whole lot of free time, because it is going to stay busy during Christmas.

Having said that, what always happens is that people finally shake off the left over Christmas tinsel at the end of January and say, “Oh, yeah, weren’t we talking about buying a house back in October? Must’ve forgotten about it because of how Halloween and all those other goings on.” And then you get that big rush of buyers. I think that this drastic upward momentum they receive is going to continue until the end of January 2013.

Moving forward

I would love to see my friends and my clients and the folks who are supporting downtown and central Phoenix getting some good information. I have access to all of this data from Mike Orr’s Cromford Report and it can reveal so much.

Please tell me, how helpful you folks think this market analysis series has been to you? What areas would you like me to zero in on?  Are there listing conditions you’d like me to do some research on?

If you have questions about buying or selling your home, please call me at 602-456-9388. I can help.

Last week, I shared details of the actual percentage of the increasing value of homes in the downtown Phoenix historic districts between January 2011 and October 2012. This week, I’ll open it up to CenPho, still focusing on the historic neighborhoods. You’ll find this very interesting and informative…

The bold numbers are the percecentage of change in those areas that follow:

No Change

I believe that we have not seen much change in these historic neighborhoods because they are so small and unique. We just have not seen much turnover in homes here.

Ashland Place Historic District
Hoover, Vernon and Ashland Avenues between Central Avenue and Third Street

Alvarado Historic District
Central Avenue, Oak Street, 3rd Street and Palm Lane in Phoenix
Note: I have a great listing at 140 E Coronado, directly behind the Phoenix art museum. This is a great, stable neighborhood.

East Alvarado Historic District
Central Ave., 3rd St., Oak St. and Roanoke Ave.,

East Evergreen Historic District
McDowell and Fillmore Sts., Central and 7th St.,

Up to 15% increase
This is generally the same as those areas noted above. This is a relatively small area and there is not a lot of turn-over.

La Hacienda Historic District
Thomas Rd. and Earll Dr. between 3rd St. and 7th St.

15% – 24.9% increase
The change in these areas is a result of some really nice renovations of historic homes. You are not seeing the huge increase in prices, as with those areas further down in this post because these areas remained surprisingly stable throughout the recession –at least by comparison. These areas prove my premise: that historic neighborhoods survive shocks better than other neighborhoods.

Campus Vista Historic District
Osborn to Thomas, 7th Avenue to 15th Avenue.

Cheery Lynn Historic District
Flower St, Earll Drive, Randolph Road, and 16th Street.

Country Club Manor
7th St. Osborn Rd and Thomas Rd

Del Norte Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Encanto Blvd, 17th Avenue to 15th Avenue

Encanto-Palmcroft Historic District
Encanto Bvd, McDowell Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Encanto Vista Historic District
Encanto Bvd, Thomas Rd., 7th Ave. and 15th Ave.,

Fairview Place Historic District
15th Ave., McDowell Rd., 18th Ave., and Encanto Blvd

F.Q. Story Historic District
McDowell Rd., 7th Ave., Roosevelt St. and 17th Ave.,

Idylwilde Park Historic District
11th St and 12th St. Weldon Ave. and Fairmount Ave.

Margarita Place Historic District
15th Ave and 16th Ave along Edgemont Ave.

Medlock Place Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central and 7th Aves.

Melrose-Woodlea Historic Neighborhood
15th ave to 7th ave and Indian School to the canal

Oakland Historic District
Van Buren and Jefferson Sts. 7th and 15th Aves.

Pierson Place Historic District
Camelback and the Grand Canal Central and 7th Aves.

Woodland Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. and Van Buren and Fillmore St

Yaple Park Historic District
The Canal and Indian School Rd., 7th and 15th Aves.

25% – 34.9%
Willo saw some terrible price drops, but really started coming back in 2011. I believe a lot of this prices increases in Willo became apparent earlier than those shown far below.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Roosevelt Historic District
McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave.

Willo Historic District
Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rds.

35% or more increase
These areas really saw a huge dump in prices during the recession. The Coronado neighborhood, for example, was priced incredibly high on a per foot basis before the drop and they saw a huge downturn. Garfield neighborhood is increasing for other reasons –can you say “ASU expansion?” Garfield is going to be an important downtown neighborhood in the coming years and everybody is jumping in on it. I just hope that those who are jumping in are actually renovating the homes and not just acting as absentee landlords.

Brentwood Historic District
McDowell to the I-10, 16th Street to the 51

Coronado Historic District
Virginia Avenue to Coronado Road, 8th Street to 14th Street

Country Club Park Historic District
Thomas Road to Virginia Avenue, 8th Street to Dayton Street.

Earll Place Historic District
Earll Drive and the north side of Pinchot Ave between 16th and 18th st.

Garfield Historic District
7th St. 16th St. VanBuren St. and I-10

North Encanto Historic District
Osborn and Thomas Rds. 15th and 19th Aves.

Windsor Square Historic District
Missouri and Camelback Rds. Central Ave. and 7th St.

Let’s talk about home sales trends, shall we? I hate to say I told you so (okay, maybe I don’t…), but According to Data Reporters Ryan Konig and Matt Dempsey at The Arizona Republic, the downtown Phoenix historic districts in 2012 saw a significant increase in median sales prices for single-family houses.

Which downtown Phoenix historic district areas  have seen the greatest increase between 2011 and 2012?

The Roosevelt District
Roughly surrounded by McDowell Rd and Fillmore St. Central Ave. and 7th Ave. in Phoenix. The shape of this district is like a perfect box.

Los Olivos Historic District
Located along Monte Vista Road between Third and Seventh streets

Villa Verde Historic District
Grand and 19th Aves. Encanto Blvd. and Monte Vista

Willo Neighborhood
This historic distric is located direct above the Roosevel Historic District. It’s roughly surrounded by Central and 7th Aves. McDowell and Thomas Rd.

So check this out. Those four histroic neighborhoods have seen a 25% to 34.9% increase in the median housing prices since 2011! Meanwhile, the east side of central, literally across the street, has seen how much incrase in home prices since 2011? Try zero.

The orange area is the sweet spot of this increase in prices for three of the historic neighborhoods: Willo, Los Olivos, and Roosevelt. Villa Verde is at the NW corner 19th ave/Grand ave.  It’s the same area I’ve been telling people for some time now not to ignore–“because there’s some good stuff going on there, stuff that’s going to explode in 2012″. Of course, I’ve been saying since late 2009 that CenPho is gearing up for a serious rebound.

So, I can’t read the future or anything. Don’t come asking me about which boxer to bet on. But I have a really good nose for where things are going in CenPho.

If you’re a buyer who wants to know about those cool little hidden places that my expertise tells me are going to do well, come talk to me. If you’re a seller, now is the time to think seriously about selling.

In future posts coming down the Get Your PHX pipline in 2013, I’m going to be tracking certain areas in Central Phoenix for you; for example, historic light-rail adjacent areas, and let you in on what’s happening to median home values  in these areas. It’s going to be an exciting year, 2013. Keep your ear to Get Your PHX and I’ll do my best to keep you in the know.

Kenneth “Ken” Clark
REALTOR(r)
At Your Service!
HomeSmart
(602) 456-9388
Ken@GetYourPHX.com