Here’s a little more background: Since 2007, the Mortgage Debt Relief Act has allowed owners selling their homes through a short sale to do so without having to pay tax on the amount their mortgage holders forgave them. In previous days the money that the bank forgave on the loan would have been considered by the IRS as some sort of income on which you must pay taxes!

That will end December 31, 2012, giving homeowners until the end of this year to get out from under their debt without facing tax consequences.

Real estate brokers and agents specializing in the listing and sale of short sales have become the busiest in the industry. The moral here is that if you are going to do a short sale, do it now.  While most short sales take 3-4 months, some can take longer.  You do not want to be sweating out a December 31st closing.

Call us today at 602-456-9388 and we can make it happen for you!

I’m sure y’all have heard that “broken window theory” of criminology, made popular by  James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in 1982. Basically, if law enforcement does not address small crimes like broken windows then it becomes harder to fight more serious crimes.

I’ve seen this in reverse since I moved to Phoenix in 1998. I’ve seen greater attention on the part of the city and police to things like graffiti and petty crimes. As a result, and along with hard work of urban pioneers, things have gotten much better here.

Well, as city budgets have been cut (thank you Grover Norquist and the like), we are not training new cops and we don’t have the ability to respond quickly to graffiti like we once could.

So, we citizens have to respond in new ways. That is why I am happy to see that Mayor Greg Stanton has created an advisory committee to advise him on current issues impacting phoenix neighborhoods. Mayor Stanton believes “our city is only as strong as our individual neighborhoods, so we must keep an open line of communication.”At Quarterly meetings the committee, comprised of 29 members, will discuss such topics as law enforcement, parks, streets, neighborhood services, etc. The first meeting is set for the end of this month.

On of the reasons we love and live in downtown phoenix, is because if it’s walkability and promise for future communities. It’s important to support the local community and neighborhoods, not only for our quality of life downtown, but our home values in the future.

Did you know 40% of single family and condo sales in Greater Phoenix in January were cash purchases. Now, I’m not talking about sacks or briefcases full of cash, but people are buying homes outright and their are some benefits.

• Psychologically,  there is a big benefit in knowing that you own your house free and clear. You also free up quite a bit of income because you will have no rent or mortgage.
• Buying a house with cash means that if the value of the home goes down by 10% then the money you put in also goes down by 10%. The most you can lose is the amount of money you put in. In the case of a 20% down mortgage, if the house’s value goes down 10% then you lose 50% of the money you put in because of leverage.
• When you have the cash to pay for the full amount of a house, it means that there will be no contingencies on getting a loan and the amount of time needed to close a deal is shorter. This generally gives you the buyer more negotiating power for a discount on the price of the home, and with the number of homes on the market quickly drops timing is everything.

But is it for you? Well there’s no tax advantage. But if the amount of cash you spend does not consist of a significant portion of your liquid assets and the amount of savings you get from an all cash deal versus a loan deal is significant, cash might be for you. In other words, you might be earning more money on your investment in a house than other investments.

Now, I’m not a financial advisor and I suggest you speak with one before you purchase a home. But if you want to know more about the market, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

Over the last couple weeks I’ve seen the same thing happen over and over: houses on the market are in bidding wars within HOURS of coming on the market and they are getting offers well above asking price.

There is a very simple reason this is happening: inventory in Maricopa County has dropped by more than half since January of last year.

This graph should make this very clear. This is terrible news if you are a buyer, but great news if you are listing a property.

This situation is going to last until one or two things happen: (1) Home builders start building more homes and/or (2) people who have been waiting to list their homes put them on the market.

Either way, prices are getting ready to move up. I feel bad for the people last year who told me things like, “it is clear that the market is going to drop again in 2012 because (insert economic theory here).” We agents knew prices were going to go up in 2012 because we’ve been watching this data for a very long time.

Here’s another way to look at it. The “Days Inventory” is going down quickly, too. Another way to see this is if we took the number of houses in the inventory today and divided it by the number of sales every day, how many days would it take until there were zero properties lest to sell. This tells you how quickly things are selling. If you want to break that down further by price, it really tells you a story.

See those charts below. For now, if you are thinking of buying a home be ready to be aggressive in your offers. Give me a call at 602-456-9388 and I can give you more information. Interest rates are still at a historic low. You definitely don’t want to wait until BOTH interest rates AND prices are higher!

Source: The Cromford Report (www.cromfordreport.com)

Active Listings in 2011 and 2012

Good News for home owners in distress!

And by “Good News” I don’t mean some shady scheme to short sell your house to an off-shore corporation in the Caymen Islands.

Fannie Mae is introducing an Unemployment Forbearance program which provides assistance to borrowers dealing with unemployment.

These loans will allow the borrower to receive a reduction or suspension of their monthly mortgage payment for a specific period of time and will prohibit services from foreclosing on your property.

A mortgage loan is eligible for an Unemployment Forbearance if all the following criteria are met:

• The property cannot be vacant, condemned, or abandoned.
• The mortgage loan cannot be an FHA, VA, or Rural Housing mortgage loan.
• The property must be a principal residence. Second homes and investment properties are not eligible.
• The borrower may be either delinquent or default is reasonably foreseeable.
• The borrower must have a financial hardship due to unemployment.

The Forbearance will be canceled if:

• Any of the eligibility criteria and terms stated above are no longer met.
• The borrower advises the servicer that he or she has become employed or is no longer actively seeking employment.

If you need more information contact Jeannie Bolger with Nova Home loans.

Market trends are upon us again! Try to contain your excitement.

Our Friend Cynthia Lujan from Old Republic Title was nice enough to send us new stats on the current market.

Between November and December supply was is once again on a downward trend for all price ranges. The strongest decline in supply is for homes under $100,000. Sales rates look better between$200,000 and $400,000 while above $400,000 demand is still a problem.  Demand from owner occupiers remains subdued due to strict underwriting standards for “jumbo” loans, but cash buyers including landlords and other investors are quickly snapping up a large part of whatever comes onto the market.

The supply from foreclosures continues to fall with more pending foreclosures getting resolved by short sales. Lenders are receiving fewer homes into REO inventory as a higher percentage of trustee sales result in a sale to a third party. Despite public perception to the contrary, price per sq. ft. has gone up  in the past year. (Do we hear that on the national news? Noooo!)

The strongest recent movement is for the price range below $100,000, where price per sq. ft. hit bottom in February and is now up nearly 7% over the last 12 months. With supply on a downward trend again we anticipate that the peak spring season will find most buyers frustrated by a lack of choice and fierce competition from other buyers.

So what does this mean for you? Buy now!

The inventory of houses between $100,000- 200,000 are down 46.6% and sales prices are now 6.9% higher than last year. Homes from 200,000-400,000 numbers aren’t as dramatic, with supply down 26% and prices up .3%. As all we all learned in our 10th Grade Economics class, as supply grows more limited, demand will drive prices up.

Need help finding a home? Call me today at 602-456-9388

Everybody asked me, “Hey, I’m upside down in my loan, but I’ve never missed a payment. Why can’t I refinance and take advantage of the lower rates?”

This is a good question and the answer has a lot to do with making our economy better. Basically, rather than allowing a ton of properties to foreclose, the government could take a smaller loss by just allowing you to refinance at a lower rate, even if your house is worth less than the market. This puts actual dollars in the economy!

That is what the Obama Administration is doing now. Here’s the take away message: call the lender who gave you your loan and ask them if you can do this.

As you may recall, The Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Department of the Treasury introduced HARP in early 2009 as part of the Obama Administration’s Making Home Affordable program. HARP is only one of several refinancing options available to homeowners. This plan in unique in that  it is the only refinance program that enables borrowers who owe more than their home is worth to take advantage of low interest rates and other refinancing benefits.  Since April 2009 when HARP has helped approximately nine million families refinance.

To qualify you must meet the general criteria. Only mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie on or before May 31, 2009, are eligible for refinance under HARP.  To learn if your mortgage is owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, you can visit their websites. Borrowers must be current on their loans and have no late payments in the last six months. Your current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio must be greater than 80%.  Mortgages that have borrower-paid mortgage insurance may refinance, but borrowers must keep the same level of mortgage insurance they had on the previous loan. And homeowners who have already refinanced through HARP are ineligible to refinance again.

So, why these changes now? When it was launched in March 2009, the program failed to meet regulators’ expectations. With mortgage interest rates at historic lows, now is a great time for eligible borrowers to refinance.  Importantly, such refinances bring benefits to borrowers, to housing markets, and to the Enterprises and taxpayers.

The proposed these enhancements become available November 15^th. If you have questions you can contact mortgage consultant Jeannie Bolger 602-385-4812. We are not certain what all of the rules will say on November 15th, but Nova Home Loans should be able to help you, regardless of where your original loan came from.

Here’s the October Market Report from my friend Cynthia Lujan at Old Republic Title. 

Enjoy, my fellow data geeks!

Market Headlines

·         A big contrast exists between the market under $200,000 and the market above that figure

·         Enthusiastic buying below $100,000 is causing significant price rises as inventory becomes tight.

·         Above $200,000 the market continues to deteriorate slightly.

·         Above $400,000 there is potential for further price weakness unless demand improves.

·         The overall average for sales pricing is now on an upward trend.

·         REO inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

1.       Homes under $100,000

Summary: Supply getting tight and now constraining the market. Prices are rising and are now 2% higher than last year.

The sales count in this price range dipped 5% between September and October but is still over 40% higher than October 2010. Pending sales are down by nearly 8%compared with last month and are 28% higher than last year. The sales volume is now limited by the low supply. In fact this is the only price range where supply fell last month, down 4.6% and now 49% below this time last year.

2.      Homes Between $100,000 and $200,000

Summary: Supply edges up and demand weakens. However pricing is very stable and now trending slightly higher.

Supply increased by 2.1% over the past month but is still down 2.6% compared with 3 months ago and 47% compared with this time last year. Lender owned active listings are down by 70% over the last 12 months while short sale listings are down 42% and normal listings are down 39%.

3.       Homes Between $200,000 and $400,000

Summary: Supply is higher and demand is fading. Nevertheless, pricing remains stable at the moment.

The supply of single family homes priced between $200,000 and $400,000 increased by 4.2% between September 26 and October 26 and is now up 6% over the last three months. However it is down 30.4% over the last year. Over the last month REO supply fell by 1.3%, short sales and pre-foreclosures fell by 4.8% and normal listings was where all the growth came, increasing by 9.8%.

4.       Homes Between $400,000 and $800,000

Summary: Supply is up and demand is down. Sales prices dropped in September but now appear to have stabilized.

Single family homes between $400,000 and $800,000 have seen active listings grow 8% over the last month and 12% over the last 3 months. This is still down 24% compared with this time last year, but this is just one of many signals that the dynamics of this price range are starting to deteriorate. The sales volume weakened again in October, with monthly sales down 7% compared with September and also down 7% compared with October 2010. Pending sales fell by 5.1% over the last month and are now a remarkable 22% below last year.

5.       Homes over $800,000

Summary: The luxury market remains weak. Supply is growing while demand is muted.

We have a mixed picture this month for the luxury market. The monthly sales rate was 18% higher than last year but pending sales are down 17% compared with last October and 19.5% lower than three months ago. Demand has still not recovered from the steep drop off which coincided with the debt limit crisis and the stock market decline in July. Supply is on the rise, up 7.2% over the last month although still 25%

Well, its market analysis time again. That’s right, gear up because I’m going to throw some wonky charts at you. Don’t be too intimidated. I promise to be gentle.
It’s short and sweet, really. The number of pending foreclosures continues to go down. The entire pie is shrinking, leaving an increasing percentage of the pie as short sale homes. So let’s get down to business and see what I’m really talking about.

“REO” you’re probably wondering what does that mean? Simply just a fancy term for a foreclosed property.
“AWC” simply means Active with Contingencies. In other words it is simply a short sale home. The buyer has already agreed upon the price yet, their waiting on the bank for the final decision.Have you noticed a trend yet? All of the categories are shrinking therefore the inventory of homes, are going down.
What’s going to happen next you ask? The prices start to go up because scarcity creates demand.

The numbers of pending foreclosures are taking a dive and it doesn’t look pretty.
Have you heard about the new wave foreclosures based on nation-wide estimates of how many people are slacking on their house payment? This is completely misleading for three reasons:

1.   Nation-wide averages are not Arizona.
2. It is easy to double count those people who are late, but not in foreclosures and those who are late and in foreclosures.
3. Finally, the banks will not sell more properties than the market will bear. Hello everyone.  They want the prices to go up, not down.

Heck, if the banks are sitting on a bunch of homes. Please let them out! My clients who are on their 6^th offer after being beat out by cash buyers would love to see some more homes in their horizon!
What does all of this mean for you? It means that the market is becoming more competitive and the days of low-balling on prices are long gone.

If you have more questions about the market, please contact me at  (602) 456-9388

It was nice to see this article in the Arizona Republic yesterday talking about a “rebound” in the condo market in Phoenix.

I don’t know if I would go so far as to call it a rebound. In fact, several of the projects the article talks about are still not sold –they turned in to apartment buildings instead.

However, the article does point out something that I’ve been saying for a while: an increasing number of people want that dense, urban experience. That is why 44 Monroe, for example, filled up with renters so quickly.

So, while you can still get a great condo downtown and in CenPho right now for much, much less than you could in 2006, and while the market for condos has not completely righted itself it is true that the inventory of condos in CenPho has dropped sharply over the past year. They are being gobbled up!

This demand should be an indicator to anybody, whether buying a house or a condo, that urban centers are going to be in great demand once the market stabilizes. If you are holding on to your house to sell later, have hope. If you are thinking about getting in to CenPho, now is a good time because it will be more expensive a year from now.