I was listening to the news recently. They were siting the Case-Shiller index talking about what the average home price was in America. This always seemed absurd to me. You could tell me that the average temperature in America is 75° and that doesn’t help me plan a trip. So I got to thinking, it would be great to have a sort of one-stop shop where people could come in and talk to people like Jeannie Bolger, Mike Orr, or myself.

So this past Tuesday, that’s what I did. We had a room of about 25 people. Some were buying houses, some selling them. Some were investors, some realtors, some mortgage brokers. Some were just curious. Another reason I did this was because I just wanted my friends to have this information. I know the market. I work hard to understand the market. We’ve been fighting some of the same myths over the past three years and I wanted to clear the air.

I covered several things in my presentation:

• The home delinquency rate in America and in Maricopa County
• The inventory that’s currently out there
• Some interesting trends hidden inside the data.

Much of my briefing was based on Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. (Thanks to Mike Orr and Tina Tamboer for allowing me to share their work at the presentation and here as well.) I’m a huge fan of this report. If The Cromford Report were like the Grateful Dead, I would just follow them around everywhere, like a groupie. It’s very easy to understand, has helpful visuals, and is easy to digest. Mike is not only behind The Cromford Report, he’s also the director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

Orr made this great statement, which he calls the Coiled Spring Theory:

The longer it takes for prices to respond, the larger prices are going to be.

I think that’s very true in the market right now. For greater Phoenix, the local average sales price per square foot, in just the last year, has seen a 30% increase in prices. Is that going to happen again this coming year? Quite possibly. And that has a lot to do with the number of homes left on the market, and where the next ones are coming from.

Before we get to that, let’s talk about delinquency. This is when people are simply late on their loans. They may foreclose. They may short sale.

I have heard the following phrase a lot over the past year:

We don’t know what the banks are hiding.

I like Mike Orr’s response to that. He says what they’re really saying is:

We’re too lazy to check.

It’s really easy to see what’s coming downstream from the banks. You can see it in several ways. First, by looking at the number of delinquency filings at the county courts. You can see who’s getting notices that they’re late on their loan and are in danger of being foreclosed. Second, you can see it in the number of trustee sales.

When you look at these numbers (see pictured graph, below), you see that Phoenix has no shadow inventory.

Phoenix was well above the USA average in 2009 and 2010 for the number of delinquent loans or foreclosures. Today, we’re below USA average. We’re number 38.

Below is another great snapshot of where we are.

Nevada is in a world of hurt right now. But things in Arizona are not what you have been hearing in the news over the last few years. It’s just not like that anymore for us. In fact, one of the reasons we saw the two big drops in Arizona (note the AZ drop-offs in the above graph) is that title companies got really good at processing short sales and they got us through that. So in Arizona, residential foreclosures are down.

If you want to see the big picture of why there is no shadow inventory, this next chart is a great thing to look at. I was saying it in Aug, 2011 (“If I have to hear another person predict a massive “shadow inventory” I’m going to turn green, and you wouldn’t like me when I turn green…) and I said it again this past July when I wrote about Countervailing Forces (you remember the graphic: two monopoly houses dueling with light sabers. I crack me up, sometimes.)

On this chart, that line on the bottom is the normal level at which people expect to see foreclosures in the market. There’s always going to be some percentage of people who should not have bought the house and now they’re upside down late on payments. The real interesting bit here is that based on this chart we can see that there are still going to be some things coming onto the market or those people are going to be short selling. They’ll find a way through it, but they’ll have a better chance at a better way through it then they would have three years ago.

Some people argue that I’m not looking in the right place. They’ll say,

All those banks are just holding onto their houses. They just haven’t been listed yet. You’re not seeing them in this chart.

Well those people will have to keep arguing, or holding their breath, until part 2 of this series on Get Your PHX Market Briefing. That’s when I’ll share how I answer those people and I’ll share some relevant and interesting insights about the inventory that’s actually out here in Central Phoenix.

If you would like to be part of a future PHX Market Briefing, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

[train photo: andrew_j_w] [modified with permission by Ken Clark]

JUMP TO PART 2 OF THE MARKET BRIEFING HERE.

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“Phoenix’s Innovation and Efficiency efforts are leading the way nationally,” said Mayor Greg Stanton. “As a leader of the city, I get my best ideas from listening to people. We want to put as many of the city’s best ideas forward as possible.”

This deserves a huge round of applause!

The Innovation and Efficiency Task Force went to work January 2010, with private sector members and city executives serving together. Ideas flow through the Task Force to a subcommittee and then to the full City Council. In this excellent 10-minute video the City Celebrates $59 million in Innovation and Efficiency Savings (with numerous specific examples) and announces a $100 million Goal.

“The leadership from Mayor Stanton and Councilman Gates, the full City Council, our Task Force members and hard work from city staff have created a culture of innovation,”said City Manager and Task Force creator, David Cavazos. “Innovative ideas and sound financial management are at the heart of what we do here at the city of Phoenix, and we will continue to find new ideas and solutions.”

Marty Schultz, Task Force Member, and Senior Policy Dir. Brownstein/Hyatt/Farber/Schrek had this to say about the people in the private sector who are involved:

“They are actually very smart people who have finance backgrounds, service backgrounds, and management backgrounds, and have been able to work closely with the city staff.”

This brings to mind a string of programs Mayor Stanton and the city have initiated: In June, I told you about the unveiling of “Go Green Like Your Grocer”, a community energy efficiency showcased at AJ’s Fine Foods; in August, the innovate community-engaging website ‘My Plan Phx’ opened an opportunity for residents to help shape the future of the city through participation in updating the city’s General Plan (Conserve Create ConnectPHX), and planning for the communities along the light rail line (ReinventPHX). This short 1:30 video gives a good idea of what My Plan PHX is all about.

As a former State Legislator and the former state Energy Office Director, I have a strong understanding of energy efficiency in homes. I participated in Energize Phoenix on my property in Garfield, as have many others. That’s a significant bonus when people work with me as their agent. Of the two homes I’ve renovated in Central Phoenix, I did the Energize Phoenix program on my 1925 Arts and Crafts Bungalow. (The other home is a 1948 “war baby” tract home). I understand the attractions and challenges of old homes, as well as how to identify quality new homes. So, please let me know if I can apply my experience to help you buy or sell an energy efficient home in Phoenix.

 [innovation image: seth1492][usa image: Kyle McDonald]

If you owe a debt to someone and they cancel or forgive that debt, the canceled amount may be taxable. Same goes for mortgage debts. Hence, the creation in 2007 of the Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Relief Act. The IRS explains the concept surprisingly well. This act expires in 96 days, the end of this year, after the holidays; much sooner than you realize.

People have been opining this whole year about the possible extension of the $1 billion mortgage debt forgiveness relief provision at the end of the year. I’ve been hearing the following:

“Should I short sell before the end of the year?”

“Can I count on the hopeful January 1 extension?”

“The $1 billion mortgage debt relief provision allows me to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven by my lender, but it expires at the end of the year! My chance to short sell and still seek tax relief is disappearing quickly!”

“But I hear these holiday months aren’t as slow as one might think. Oh, no! I’m almost out of time to avoid the tax repercussions of selling my home short!”

Let’s be clear on what the act does.

The 2007 Mortgage Debt Relief Act allows taxpayers to exclude up to $2 million of forgiven debt on their principal residence in calendar years 2007 through 2012. With one caveat: The discharge of debt must be directly related to the decline in the residence’s value or in the financial condition of the taxpayer.

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act was originally going to expire at the end of 2010, but lawmakers decided to extend it until the end of 2012. If it does expire, anyone who receives mortgage forgiveness on day one of 2013, or after that, will have to face paying income tax on a forgiven debt.

Isn’t it in the President’s budget?
Didn’t it pass the committee level in the Senate?

Yes/But… We don’t know the outcome of the election in November and nothing is moving in Congress for the next 6 weeks. This time bomb very likely won’t be voted on before the end of the year, what with their attention consumed with the nation’s budget crisis.

Furthermore, given that it takes 3 to 6 months to close on a short sale…Are you really willing to take the risk that the act will be extended?

What’s the bottom line?

List now and be more certain that you will avoid that tax liability. I strongly advise you consult with a tax attorney!

[referee photo: compujeremy] [house photo: surprise truck]

There was a great story on KJZZ yesterday morning on their Changing America series. Reporter Peter O’Dowd talked about how retirees are moving into downtown areas and urban cores along the Valley Metro light-rail line.

Finding homes for these folks in CenPho is driven by a need I saw coming years ago: Baby Boomers—the post-WWII generation born between 1946 and 1964—are changing the way we view retirement. I say that because I have helped many folks in their retirement years as they search for homes in downtown. So, this story really hit home.

“As a group,” said Landon Jones in his book that coined the word, “[Baby Boomers], were the wealthiest, most active, and most physically fit generation to that time, and amongst the first to grow up genuinely expecting the world to improve with time.”

It should come as no surprise, then, that 60 housing units are opening at the end of this month in downtown Phoenix, along the “pedestrian friendly street with historic sidewalks and that sort of thing”—which is how Gordan and Company Developer Brian Swanton described Lofts at McKinley in the KJZZ piece.

The Lofts will attend to the lower and middle income residents, 55 years and older. It’s just a few blocks from a light-rail station. When the complex broke ground last year, KPHO reported,

Despite the lower price tag, amenities will not be cheap. Tenants met by doormen, high end appliances and even green products. Recycled water for irrigation purposes. Rent will range from $400 to $900. Eligible tenants must have an annual income between $18,000 to $32,000.”

There aren’t many seniors or retirees who can afford early retirement these days. Guaranteed pensions are even less likely. Swanson said that by 2013 close to 300 units for seniors will be available along the light-rail line between Phoenix and Mesa.

Shannon Scutari, who leads the Sustainable Communities Collaborative (and is quoted in the KJZZ piece), “helps coordinate a 20-million dollar fund to kickstart financing for affordable housing near transit. Without various stacks of private money, Scutari says the banks just aren’t interested in taking the risk on their own.”

Encore on Farmer is another senior housing complex that opened January in downtown Tempe.

The prospects are not just for rentals, but also for home sales in CenPho and downtown. This is what I find so exciting. I love the diversity. As a famous baby boomer said, “The times they are a changin’….”

There are plenty of homes, town homes, patio homes and condos for sale that meet this need. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 if you are interested to learn more.

[Lofts at Finley photo: combusean] [Baby Boomers photos: NGOA&ENGAF]

As the summer begins to tease us with signs of fading out–the sky is overcast and the rain is supposed to continue for the next week or so, I find myself thinking about the end of the year. Specifically, I think about how the older realtors always talk about the “slow months” –November through January.

Now, I’m no old hand, but I’m not that new and I can tell you that last Halloween through New Year’s was all work for me in the real estate business.

As the story goes, people stop buying or selling houses because the holidays just creep up on them and they get distracted. The common wisdom says that the market slows down after the summer and then maybe you may be able to negotiate a better deal during the holidays and Christmas. But that has not been the case the last two years.

If you look at previous years (see below), you will see that this is generally true; especially around Thanksgiving. In the first chart below you will see the last nine years. Some of them drop off drastically, but come back around February. In the second chart you will see 2004 and 2005 compared to 2010 and 2011. In ’10 and ’11 there was a little drop around November, but then we just picked right up again.

In other words, don’t assume that the end of the year is going to be slow!

The take away?

First: Don’t assume the end of the year is going to be slow. Whether you are selling or buying, take advantage of the active market.

Second, it’s been hectic the last two years. We have every reason to believe it’s going to be hectic this year, too.

And by the way, if you’re thinking to short sale, you’re running out of time if you want to avoid the tax repercussions of selling your home short. Please see this article and learn how the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act allows you to avoid paying taxes on mortgage debt forgiven by your lender. This act runs out at the end of this year.

For those looking to relieve some pressure from the uncertainty of when to swing their buy-it-now bat and make contact with the house-ball, the number of listings  are creeping up again, wouldn’t you know it. (See the brown line in the “Monthly Average Sales Price” chart below).

Why is that, you ask?

Nobody has any idea. But I predict that, while it won’t be as dramatic as our last, it may go on for a while.

Here’s the analysis:

After the presidential elections in November, regardless of the winner,  prices will continue to move upward. How do I know this? And why does this sound like a weather report prediction?

It’s because the coming change in home-buying patterns is showing evidence of a refreshing rain moving our way. After a six-year long summer of dry, cloudless skies, we’re beginning to smell the change in the air. A break from the scorching heat is a ‘comin.

To say it without the weather analogy, the increase in buying will continue, in part because a lot of companies are holding off on major projects and hiring until after the elections’ fallout. However, that upswing won’t be dramatic because our national debt and energy prices will continue to be a drag on our economy.

In regards to prices, we don’t see where new inventory in our Phoenix market will come from, especially in CenPho. Tight inventory means higher prices.

Mark Zandy, one of the nation’s preeminent housing analysts was on the Diane Rems Show yesterday morning talking about prices and how they are continuing to move upward as distressed properties are going away.

In Phoenix house prices have gone up 30% from last year. Yes 30%.

Take a look at the graph below, showing the Monthly Average Sales Price Per Square Foot. You can’t see the wind, but you can tell how and where it’s moving by watching the things it affects.

This chart shows a snapshot of four years worth of housing prices on the move. The brown line on top, the one with the greatest upward spiking is 2012.

My expert conclusion?

The heat is unbearable and so many people are walking around with sunburned proof of the long, hot summer. If you’re thinking of buying, make your move and buy now.

I want to say this very clearly: while prices will be going up for the foreseeable future, they won’t return to 2007 levels for years. So, if you are thinking to BUY, do it now before you lose another 30% of your buying power. If you think you want to hold off SELLING until you hit 2008 prices again, don’t expect to see that again until 2020.

If you want more information, please contact me at 602-456-9388.

Not to be confused with the Forces of Darkness or The Force–though the definition may not be as far off as you might think–to “Countervail” is, according to Mr. Webster, “to exert force against an opposing and often bad or harmful force or influence”.

The Countervailing Forces I’m referring to are the interest rates of homes for sale. Specifically, we want to look at the quite low interest rates currently in play and the opposing force of “just slightly increased interest rates, like something as slight as 1/2 a percent”.

I know what some of you are thinking. Aren’t opposing forces supposed to be opposites? Extreme opposites, especially? Not necessarily.

Let me show you why even a small percentage is enough to separate the good, from the bad and the ugly.

On one side of the ledger are those who argue that home prices are going up. It’s true. I mean, I see how prices seem to be going up. What I don’t see is where inventory is coming into the market. What about Shadow Inventory, you say? There is no Shadow Inventory.

And anything that is added to the inventory of homes for sale is on the edges of town, out where home builders are going in. The point here is that these new homes are not in the sub-burbs.

On the other side of the ledger are those who stress that we don’t know how long interest rates will stay as low as they are right now.

Those are the two groups of people on either side of the fence. This is where the countervailing forces of interest rates–the rates now vs. the slightly increased rates of the future–comes in.

When the interest rate goes up even one-half of one percent, you lose a noteworthy amount of your home’s buying power. If you decide to wait and sell your house later, when the interest rates go up, the risk is that buyers will not be able to get the rate they are getting today.

Here’s a practical example of what I’m talking about:

•  Take a $200,000 home
• Bought with 4.5% interest
• With principal and interestThat’s $962/month in mortgage.

• That same home
• At 5% interest Is $1020/month.

Look at those two numbers. Imagine you’re the one looking to buy that home. See how the difference is significant in it’s impact on a buyer’s ability to buy your home?

If you’re the seller and that happens it may be harder to sell your home.

So when you see interest rates separated by 1/2 % and think, “Big deal.  I’d rather sell my home for even a half % more.  I’ll wait to sell”, remember this example of the countervailing forces.

Don’t fall for the bad and the ugly.
Be good and be smart.

Many of you probably got up this morning and read the paper or heard the news that RealtyTrac was reporting that foreclosures were up over the month or two.

So, those folks who have been long-predicting a “wave of foreclosures” may be feeling bolstered. Don’t get too excited, my friends. That myth has not been true and it still won’t be. See this link for some reasons WHY you won’t see that happen.

But your thought for the day: put this news in perspective. 

Foreclosure notices have been going down steadily since late 2010. In fact, the height of foreclosure notices was way back in March of 2009. 

Just to be clear, a foreclosure notice is when the lender sends a note to the home owner saying they are going to take the house back. This notice is recorded with the county recorder. So, that is where the data comes from: direct from the source.

From the perspective of my buyers who are frustrated by the lack of inventory on the market, more foreclosures is good. It means more houses on the market. But to put it in perspective, it probably won’t add even 10 percent more homes on the market than there were at the beginning of this year.

So, why am I saying this? Is it ecause I don’t want to go to another cocktail party and hear some guy talk about the “wave of foreclosures” that the “banks are sitting on” while he munches on his organic, fair trade soy chips? 

No. I’m telling you so that you know it is time to buy now before prices go up and it is time to start thinking about selling while the market is hot and interest rates are low.

Call me. I’ll buy the soy chips. 602-456-9388.

First, a quote from our resident expert, Sr. Loan Officer of Nova Home Loans, Jeannie Bolger:

Effective June 11, 2012–for  any FHA note that was endorsed by HUD on or before May 31^st, 2009–qualifies for reduced MIP on a Streamline Refinance (No Appraisal).  Upfront MIP goes to .01% and Annual MIP will be .55%. Current upfront MIP is 1.75% and the Annual is 1.25%. HUGE SAVINGS.

What? You don’t speak Klingon or Mortgagease?

This may help.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is a branch of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The FHA was developed during the Great Depression as as an effort to stimulate the real estate housing market. The main purpose of the FHA is to encourage home ownership in the United States. To accomplish this, the FHA insures mortgages against the default of borrowers. 

Do you have a current FHA loan (note) that was endorsed (or closed) by HUD prior to May 31, 2009? If so, your FHA loan qualifies for a significant reduction in your upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP; an insurance policy that compensates lenders/investors for losses in the event of a defaulted mortgage loan) on a Streamline Refinance (No Appraisal).

The current upfront MIP is 1.75%. Let’s say your FHA Streamline Refinance of your home is for a new $100,000 mortgage. The FHA will charge you $1,750 upfront on the mortgage insurance premium (MIP). You pay this at closing and the $1,750 payment  automatically rolls  into your new loan balance.

On June 11, the new upfront MIP will be  .01%  This is a HUGE SAVINGS. Using the $100,000 new mortgage example above, you would only pay $1 !

Also beginning June 11, 2012, the FHA will reduce it’s 1.25% annual MIP ($1,250) to just .55 % for certain FHA borrowers (or $550)–more than a 50% savings!

This is one way that FHA can make a real difference to help homeowners who are doing the right thing, paying their bills on time and want to take advantage of today’s low interest rates. By significantly reducing costs for these borrowers, we can make certain they cut their monthly mortgage burden which will benefit the housing market and the broader economy in the process,” said Federal Housing (FHA) Commissioner, Carol Galante. Read the full HUD Press Release here.

Read Jeannie Bolger’s quote at the top of this post, again, and you’ll be amazed at how much Klingon Mortgagease you speak!

REMEMBER: For home loans endorsed by HUD before May 31, 2009

PLEASE NOTE: Loan application may be started prior to June 11^th, but FHA case # must be ordered after June 11^th, 2012 to qualify for program and reduced MIP.

Call Jeannie Bolger, Sr. Loan Officer Nova Home Loans, for more information:  (602) 550-8674

[Photo: Images_of_Money]