Its mid-year and time to take stock of where the market stands.

“Sales volume year-to-date so far in 2015 is 47,661 closings, up 8.8% from this week in 2014 but still 8.7% below 2013.

2006 and 2014 saw similar annual sales volume. 2015 has had 57% more closings than 2008, which was the infamous year prices crashed due to increasing foreclosure supply and decreased demand due to tightened lending standards.”

In other words, people in 2008 were listing them, but not closing. Whereas this year, they are listing them and closing them.

But, don’t take that strong activity to mean that we are heading toward another bubble. We’ve seen this year how there are not as many houses coming on the market as there were in 2008. This year’s price increases seem to be due to shortages, rather than people throwing houses on the market in reaction to a bubble.

That is why you saw 91,191 listings in July of 2008 but only 63,810 as of this month in 2015.  I suspect if prices continue to rise, more folks will be inspired to list their homes. But, we don’t seem to see that kind of irrational upward pressure right now.

So, what does this mean for you? It means that it is a good time to list, especially as people return from summer vacation in about a month. It means that you might want to buy before those people return and enter the market.

Let’s look at your specific situation and build a strategy. Call me a 602-456-9388.

Info Source: The Comford Report

We’ve been watching for a while how the inventory of homes under $200k have simply not been increasing. See here and here for more background on that.

It has caused an interesting split in the growth of sales of homes in different prices ranges.

According to the Cromford Report, “Sales during June were substantially higher than in June last year, but the gains were almost entirely in the price ranges over $200,000. Under $200,000 there just is not enough supply to generate any growth in sales.”

In other words, as much as people want to purchase homes under $200k, sellers don’t want to sell them. Whereas, in higher price points, the sellers have been motivated by the increase in buyer interest and they put their homes on the market.

My guess is that this situation could become more acute if interest rates continue to rise. There will be more homes for sale over $200k, but they will be less affordable for an entire sector of the buying public.

The lesson is to plan ahead. Even if you don’t plan to purchase for six months, we should get together now to build a strategy. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

My friend Tina over at the Cromford Report was telling me about “flash sales” and how they change with a changing market.

Have you ever been out looking for homes just to be shocked that the home you identify is under contract within 24 hours? It happens all the time. But it happens more in a market that has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. There are fewer homes in a seller’s market (in most cases) and buyer have to jump quickly to get what they want.

What is most amazing to watch is when the home that goes in a heartbeat is one that clearly needs work or one that has some serious deferred maintenance issues. Or, even crazier, when a really beat-up home has been sitting on the market for 5 months and then, all of the sudden, three offers come in.

Why is this? Well, its because the supply at that point has shrunk so much that buyers have little choice but to buy that home which needs all the repairs. We’ve seen this a lot in the sub-$200k range these days.

To put is more diplomatically, as Tina does, “As inventory declines sharply, properties that were once continually rejected due to price or condition are found attractive again in the absence of choice.”

Most interestingly, according to Tina, is to see how often homes in the higher prices go in flash sales. Yep, it still happens. See the chart, below.

So, how to you avoid this problem? I tell my clients to start looking before you think you need to. We usually get together as much as 6 months before you think you need to look. We will consider the market trends, your personal situation and then we set up a strategy. If we see some market shifting coming along (which we properly predicted this year), then we will make adjustments to your plans.

We don’t want you getting suck with too few choices. So, call me at 602-456-9388 and we can build your strategy together.

More often than not, first time home buyers need to purchase under $200,000.

Well, according to our friends at the Cromford Report, those first-time home buyers hoping to buy a single family home for under $200,000 may want to hurry it up.

New single family listings per month in this price range have been steadily declining since 2010 and have dipped below the level of sales for the past two months with June looking to follow suit.

Very few single family homes have been built to add to supply for entry-level buyers as most builders have been placing their bets on multi-family (apartments and condos) for the past few years. Thus far in 2015, condos and townhomes accounted for 24% of new listings under $200k compared to 22.5% last year and 23% of sales compared to 21% last year. As supply in the single family market continues to restrict on the low end, condos and townhomes may become more attractive. However due to high percentages of investor-owned units, financing may prove difficult.

Notice that in April and May (below) that the number of listings surpassed the number of sales. So, it was listed, it was sold. Personally, I suspect that this will change for the summer, as there are fewer people around to purchase.

My advice: First, if you are looking under $200k, the summer might be the best time for you. You might have to deal with the heat while you look, but I fear that this trend will get worse once the temperature drops. Second, leave yourself open to condos, patio homes or town homes.

Regardless, give me a call at 602-456-9388 and let’s build a strategy that works for you.

I was driving down the road yesterday, minding my own business, when another ad for Zillow came on the radio.

They claimed that their service helps you compare prices, find rentals and maybe even train your cat to dance the polka. I might be wrong on that last point, but it sounded like he was saying that.

But, it brought me all back to the various reasons why Zillow is not necessarily your friend when it comes to buying or selling a home.

Here, here, here and here are four posts that I’ve done since 2011 which give you good details on what is wrong with this and other services like them. After hearing these ads, I feel obliged to educate the world.

1) Zillow and other services make money by selling ad space to realtors, to show up just at that moment you are looking at a nice home on their website. The agents who purchase your data may not be specialists in your area or the type of home you want. This is particularly important in historic areas.

2) The data that these services use comes from the data that we agents update every day, but these services don’t get all of that data. We reserve the most important (and most private) for our professional industry and for our clients. So, you may log on to these services, give them your data to use, but you won’t necessarily get the most up-to-date information.

3) There is a time delay from when we agents update listings (active, pending, closed) and when the services see the change. So, if you need to react quickly to the market, you may not be able to.

4) The data also impacts the estimates that you get from these sites. These services don’t get the most accurate data, so they have to construct some other estimate using older information, extrapolations and duct tape. They often give you an inaccurate picture of your home value, or the home you are looking at. This is especially true with historic homes.

If you want accurate statistical market analysis, specialty in the market and personalized representation, just call and agent so that you can use his or her MLS portal.

I can help you, so call me at 602-456-9388.

Our friends at the Cromford Report are predicting a slight decrease in prices across the valley in June, over May.

But, first, we saw impressive price increases since March.

“For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $136.34 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 2.2% above the $133.42 we now measure for April 15 and represents the second month in a row with a significant increase in average pricing.”

Cromford folks are predicting a small correction for June. This makes intuitive sense to me, as the market slows a little bit going in to the summer months. Of course, that is anecdotal.

“Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $134.54, which is 1.3% lower than the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.85 to $137.23. Our forecast this month is therefore for a small correction after strong moves higher in sales pricing over the last two months.”

The interesting thing to think about for me will be whether we maintain this tight market of homes through the summer in the CenPho and historic neighborhoods.

Normally, I would assume that there will be downward pressure on prices in the summer, as there are often fewer buyers around. However, Michelle and I have been working hard with our clients to find the right properties, given the tight supply. So, that might carry over as some folks are still looking for the right house.

Also in the CenPho area, I expect some folks to list their homes, having seen how prices have gone up.

And, of course, don’t forget that many people want to get their house closed before the interest rates go up later this year.

What do you think will happen?

If you need help navigating this market, let me know at 602-456-9388.

This post follows on a post that I did back in March, in which I discussed that there is such a tight rental market right now. Surprisingly enough, it was called “What Does a Tight Rental Market Mean?” I’m clever that way.

So, our friends at the Cromford Report have added an interesting thought to this conversation the lack of supply of entry-level homes:

“The most obvious source of new supply would be the large number of homes that are currently owned by landlords and used as rentals. However vacancy rates are low, rents are rising and these landlords would probably buy more properties if they could rather than sell them off. There are remarkably few new homes being built below $200K and if this situation persists, it is going to remain a very competitive struggle for buyers. Prices are likely to rise faster than earnings. This is good for current homeowners but bad for those currently renting and wanting to get started in home ownership. This could become even more of a problem if mortgage interest rates rise, adding to affordability problems for the first time home buyer.”

To put it another way, those folks who bought when the market was low and created cash-flow rentals have no incentive to sell. They are making money!

Unfortunately, this is shutting a lot of moderate-income buyers out of the market. It may be worse when interest rates begin to rise again at the end of this year.

So, if you are thinking of buying and if you are in this range, we need to talk! Call me at 602-456-9388.

Oh, and why “llamas” in the title? Well, I like alliteration.

I’m sure you’ve heard of home buyer programs over the years, programs that are funded by cities or counties and which help you buy your first home, if you qualify.

Folks ask me about them from time to time. And, while I’ve sold homes on these programs, I usually refer them to one of our mortgage broker friends for the latest updates. 

The reason is that the programs come and go faster than child stars on the Disney Channel.

Just this month, a new program was announced that would loan qualified home buyers up to $25,000 to be used as a down payment on a new home. This one is not run by the cities or counties, but by the private non-profit that has set aside $1 million to help low and moderate income families get in to a home.

NOTE: these are not grants, they are loans. So, in addition to the loan on the home, you will have to pay off the down payment loan over 15 years. To qualify – a family of four must make less than $51,000, and a single person make less than $35,850.

Two more notes of caution. First, be careful of anybody who offers you a loan on top of a loan. This organization seems to be a non-profit group that seems to be saying the right things. But, you should always look closely at all materials. Second, it may not be advisable to buy a home with little or no down payment. It is important to have “skin in the game.”

If you want to see a nice list of buyer assistance programs, check out Community Housing Resources of Arizona’s website. This may not be all of the options out there and I don’t personally endorse any in particular. But, they are out there. If you are willing to participate in the program, you may save a lot of money on your first home.

Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 for more information.

For those of you who are long-time readers, you know that I’m a fan of the Cromford Index. The index not only tells you whether we are in a seller’s market or a buyer’s market, but also by how much we are going one way or another.

If you are buying a home, you’ll want to watch this trend. If the Cromford Index is moving upward, you need to move before it goes too far in to the seller’s advantage.

If you are selling a home, you need to watch out for the opposite trend. If you see the index moving downward, then you want to be more aggressive in your pricing –get out ahead of the market so you are not chasing it downward.

So, where are we now? Check this out.

Remember, 100 is a balanced market. Over 100 is a seller’s market and under is a buyer’s market.

See how much of a buyer’s market it was during the Great Recession? Then see how the seller’s took over from 2010 to 2014? Those were the people who bought during the lowest of the crash and then sold once we started to recover.

Notice also that we’ve been mostly riding 100 for a little while. Well, it looks like we are moving up towards a seller’s market once again. What does that mean? It means that sellers have an advantage — no seller-paid closing costs, prices will go up if supply stays low.

Combine this with the possibility that interest rates may go up later this year and you will want to get on in to the hunt today if you are a buyer.

If you are a seller, those interest rates are mixed news. Yep, the market seems to favor you, but an increase in interest rates may deter buyers. Or, it may encourage buyers to get in the market. We will see.

Check out this chart over just the last month. This market is definitely heating up. Just in the last month, the index for Phoenix has moved upward 14%. Only Tempe dropped.

What this means for you also depends on your specific situation and the neighborhood in which you live.

No doubt, this is a shifting market.

If you need help navigating it, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 and let’s assess the situation.

You’ve probably heard me lament about the fact that Generation Y home buyers are not coming in to the housing market as quickly as we had hoped.

The Cromford Report has addressed several times about the fact that Gen Y-ers are less likely to purchase homes right now –being saddled with an average of $25,000 of debt for an undergraduate education and having seen their parents lose homes in the Great Recession. In fact, much of  last year’s dip in first time homebuyer purchases (sub $200k) was attributed to sluggish Gen Y home purchases.

Well, I thought you’d find this report interesting. Basically, we are finding that the sheer size of the Gen Y generation may compensate for the fact that some are unable or unwilling to purchase a home right now.

Some other highlights:

• Gen Y comprises the largest share of home buyers at 32 percent, which is larger than all Baby Boomers combined.
• Gen Y also has the largest share of first-time buyers at 68 percent.
• Thirteen percent of all buyers purchased a multi-generational home, one in which the home consists of adult children over the age of 18, and/or grandparents residing in the home
• Among all generations of home buyers, the first step in the home buying process is looking online for properties for sale.

Just food for thought. If you are reading this post on your smart phone while simultaneously texting your friends and flipping between vines, this data might impact you more.

Getting the right house the first time you buy a home will set you on the right path for the rest of your life.

I can help. Call me at 602-456-9388.