Regular contributor of topic ideas of my blog, John Bennett, sent me this Newsweek article that explores how the generation raised in this recession might live differently.

Unlike in previous recessions, a more frugal life outlook might hold this time because the economics of the world, in general, will force Americans to save more, spend less and make different decisions about consumption.

According to the article, “the personal savings rate has more than quadrupled from its 2008 low to the current rate of 4.5 percent.”

This is amazing to me. Back when I worked at the Concord Coalition, a federal deficit reduction advocacy organization lead by Senators Paul Tsongas (D) and Warren Rudman (R), we watched in horror as the American average savings rate went in to negative territory. Meanwhile, the Japanese and Germans had a strong, consistent personal savings rate.

This had an impact on our federal budget deficit, as the amount people saved impacted the price of bonds and (in a complicated way that I’m not very good at explaining) the deficit that we funded with those bonds.

The article also predicts that we are entering “a new age in which young graduates can’t expect to do better than their parents—and one in which Wall Street is perceived as being able to continue business as usual while Main Street struggles.” Heck, I’m already there. I doubt that I will do as well as my parents. Although that might come from my personal choices to try to save the world, rather than anything else. Yet, over-all, the number of kids who do better than their parents is dwindling.

It creates an interesting set of ideas to think about as the Baby Boomers pass on. First, the Generation X-ers will be living off what their parents leave them, which, in the aggregate, will be more than any other time in history. Yet, there may not be much left after the Baby Boomers live longer, spend more on health care and then, finally, when we have to find a way to pay off all of the debt accumulated in our massive federal debt.

What does this mean for the housing market? I think in the 15-20 year time horizon, you can expect that many large homes will be left to the next generation by Boomers. Unless there is a continued influx of immigrants who improve America’s productivity level (not just service jobs), those homes might just sell for less and be worth less.

On the positive side, however, the Recession Generation is learning something that the eco-friendlies in the Boomer generation have been saying for decades with little response: live smaller. Dry your laundry on a line, compost, reuse things that break, live in a smaller, more energy efficient home.

When I lived in Bosnia, many folks did these things without thinking about it –even in 2007 when I went back to visit. An economist would say that it was because they had a lower standard of living and had to do these things because they had no other choice. This is true. Yet, the frugal part of life there never left me feeling that my standard of living was all that bad. In fact, it made me feel better about my lifestyle and my impact on the environment in many ways.

I hope we get a little of that New Frugality in America and it sticks.

Kimber Lanning is one of the most interesting people in the state right now, and her organization Local First AZ is one of the most promising groups for our future.

Kimber advocates for making a simple choice: try to spend your dollars on locally-owned businesses before you spend elsewhere.

Now, I am a free trade kinda guy, but I think we have let it go too far in some ways (especially when it comes to environmental degradation and worker’s rights). Yet I don’t think it is harmful to make a choice to support local businesses. As Kimber likes to say, For every $100 spent in a chain store, $13 remains in the state. For every $100 spent in a locally owned business, $45 remains in the state.

I find this topic particularly interesting because of the time I spent as the director of the State Energy Office, which (unfortunately) is housed in the Arizona Department of Commerce. What I saw and we’ve seen over years is that we bend over backwards to attract businesses to Arizona and give away the farm rather than support local businesses, which, if fostered, could be the next Intel or Microsoft and could end up bringing more business here.

I am inspired by Kimber’s leadership and the rate at which Local First has exploded over the last couple years. Maybe something about the Great Recession has made people realize that they need to keep it local. She has done more for AZ than any sitting politician I can think of, except maybe Terry Goddard.

…and, no, we are not talking about taking peyote.  Not that kind of vision conference.

My friends at the Downtown Voices Coalition are hosting a 5-year retrospective and visioning conference on January 15th and 16th. These guys have done an incredible job of advocating for what it should look like in CenPho in the near future, and advocating for inclusiveness in the city’s planning process.

If you’ve ever thought about getting involved in the future of CenPho, this is a great group to get involved with.

Here is another redistricting and census primer.

We seem to go through this every ten years, too. Folks close to government and voting rights get out and want to encourage more participation in the census count, as it results in federal dollars and more congressional representation. Folks who don’t trust government do what they can to suppress the count and somebody else gets money that would have otherwise gone to Arizona.

However, this article shows a great example of how the census runs right up against the housing market in Arizona (and why we need a more diversified economic base).

For the last several years, those of us close to the issue have expected that Arizona would get 2 more congressional seats after the 2010 census. It looks like we will only get one.

According to the article linked above, we are about 60,000 residents shy of getting that second congressional district. According to rough estimates based on housing starts and home purchases, Phoenix has not grown in three years.

So, here is how it lays out: a few bankers get in to the risky game of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps, which grow exponentially; too many people buy houses that are too big for them; too many mortgage brokers sell loans to people without the standing to incur that debt; the entire thing falls apart; Arizona gets hit the worst because for years the home builders have too much power in our state government and they keep our economy tied to only one major industry; home sales plummet; people stop coming and, as a result we don’t get another member of congress.

Mind boggling, isn’t it?!

News: Circles Discs and Tapes in downtown is closing its doors. Please stay tuned as we work to find new inhabitants of the building who will respect the history of the corner.

This is a serious blow to downtown, but I am confident that we can pull together and find an appropriate business to occupy this space and contribute to CenPho.

Unless you have a large chipper-shredder in your back yard to turn your Christmas tree in to a fine mulch (Yes, that’s my dream. What?), you need to find a place for that conical fire hazard.

The City of Phoenix has a whole list of places for you to do that. But this only went through the 3rd. So, give them a call and they will have answers about where to take them.

It is better to compost them than burn them, in any case. I don’t think we are out of the woods in regards to no-burn days…

Maybe you are sitting around, bored, and thinking “Just what disease or issue should I be aware of this month?”

Well here is your answer in a handy-dandy list!

Now, don’t be sad if you missed national “Library Card Sign-Up Month” in September, or “Go Hog Wild–Eat Country Ham Month” in October.

I think if I tried to be aware of all of these things my brain would open up my skull from the inside, step out of my head and move to Wasilla, Alaska.

On the other hand, you know what they say. Knowledge is power.

In polite cocktail party chatter, after people ask why we don’t have more solar in Arizona, they often bemoan the fact that why we don’t have a high speed rail line between Phoenix or Tucson, etc.

After all, there are only so many times you can get pinned between two 18-wheelers and a 20-year old in a Hummer with spinney wheels on I-10 before you start to wonder if there is isn’t better way.

The only answer I got when I asked was that there was not sufficient capacity on the rail line next to I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson.

The issue came front and center when Amy and I were in New Mexico in October, riding that state’s spankin’ new Rail Runner between Albuquerque and Santa Fe.

I gotta say, I was a little embarrassed that New Mexico was kicking our collective petooty in the high speed rail department. This thing was pretty swanky, in all it’s double-decker, panoramic windowed glory. Kinda like pimp my ride meets the Santa Fe Super Chief.

Well, it just so happens that one of my real estate clients helped plan and install the high speed rail servicing Washington, DC. So, he pointed me to people who could get me some answers as to why we don’t have this basic necessity  and what it would take to get it.

He pointed me first to Chris Blewett, the project manager behind New Mexico’s Rail Runner. This soft-spoken public servant seemed almost underwhelmed by his own accomplishments. At a total cost of $400 million (via state bond), they had phase one of the rail line completed in about 2 years, from conception to operation. That was 45 miles of upgraded track, plus trains. Phase 2, the next 100 miles, was completed about 2 years later.

In government time, that’s like doing the 100 meter dash in 5 seconds.

So certainly, you’d think, it can’t be that bad. Absent our budget morass, we could pull that off, right? Heck, Civic Plaza cost over $500 million.

Well, the reasons it worked so easily was that there was under-used Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) line between the two cities. All the state had to do was kinda spruce it up with new ties and some new track, according to Blewett.

What made the rail line necessary, however, was not so much the traffic but the Native American communities that dot the land on either side of the existing I-25. The freeway simply can’t grow outward any further without encroaching on tribal land. This problem won’t be apparent tomorrow, but it would bottleneck the entire state in the next decade if alternatives were not created.

The rail line, on the other hand, offered an actual solution and that is where we need to learn to make better arguments.

According to Blewett, when answering the “why not here” question, you have to look more broadly. You have to answer the question: what can commuter rail help with beyond the old standard “traffic and air quality” issues?

It creates an alternative and markets like alternatives. It allows you to build affordable housing closer to work. Money put in to rail goes further per mile than money put in to widening freeways.

If it were all that simple, then we would have it in Arizona, right?

That is when I turned to Mark Pearsall, a rail transit planner with the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG). The first thing he did was clarify for me that we are really talking about two different things: commuter rail and passenger rail.

1) The commuter rail is in the metro area, it travels long distances (say from Wickenberg to Gilbert), but it makes frequent stops. It is an elevated train, so it is not light rail. But it is not a connector for major metro areas. This needs rail lines capable of speeds up to 79 miles per hour.

There are several options for commuter rail in Phoenix: BNSF owns track from Wickenberg, down Grand Ave. to Central Phoenix. A commuter could get from Surprise to downtown Phoenix is 30 minutes. (You think the wait is long at Matt’s Big Breakfast now? Just wait.)

In order to make that happen, we would have to lay parallel track on the Grand Ave. corridor, do some signal upgrades and build a few bridges. Pearsall estimates this would average 5,000 riders per day.

There is also a Union Pacific track that could connect Buckeye to Phoenix. They would actually have to lay more main-line track in that case. Finally, there is a southeast line that could connect Phoenix, Tempe, Gilbert and Queen Creek.

According to Pearsall, this entire network would move 17,000 riders per day.

This is where money is not the only problem. Have a look at the map above. In order to see all of those connections, you would have to find a way to connect a number of those track lines that are not already connected. The map makes it look easy, but it is a spaghetti junction of rules, ownership and rights of way.

Further, you’d need to get agreement from BNSF about dedicating valuable track space and time to passenger rail. While not using all of the track space now, BNSF fears that they might in the near future.

MAG is going to come out with the results of a study in the spring, the most serious in 30 years, with conclusions about which of these lines are the most feasible. Click on the photo, above to download a copy of a recent system analysis. You will be able to get the major study at the same website in the spring.

This is where it comes down to money again. The next time the existing transportation sales tax is up for renewal is 2026, and I don’t see the voters going for another tax on top of our existing one any time soon.

So, no! No twain for Chwistmas until 2026, little Johnny!

2) Passenger rail is what we think of when we talk about Phoenix to Tucson or L.A. to Phoenix.

The problems of using existing track and laying new main lines is the same as with commuter rail, but the costs for completing the projects are much higher. However, whereas you can share rail corridors between commuter and freight rail in many cases in Maricopa County, Union Pacific tells us that we would have to build our own corridor for passenger rail between Tucson and Phoenix.

That’s big money, folks.

This is where Pearsall has hope for an ADOT study, under way now. That study will identify the top 8 corridors of possible service between Phoenix and Tucson in which you could average 70 to 100 mph. This “alternatives analysis” is meant to start the discussion of getting federal dollars to lay the track.

You know, “baby steps.”

This is also where MAG and ADOT will be coordinating efforts. They will want to locate commuter rail line next to passenger rail line in some cases to maximize efficiency and make a seamless system.

Pearsall is confident that all of these details could and would be worked out once there is money in the pot. Railroads would change their tune and track could be laid.

Just drop $2billion in the tip jar on the way out, thanks.

But, you could envision it one day. Just close your eyes and let’s imagine together: hiking in the mountains around Wickenberg, stopping off for lunch in downtown Phoenix and having a nice evening out in Tucson, without ever setting foot on a gas pedal.

Or, more seriously, you could actually save money over building new, congested freeways. (gasp!)

However you want to look at it, I think it is a goal we should have.

Postscript: It looks like the AZ Republic was doing a story on this issue as I was writing this. So, learn more here.

5341 N. Seventh Ave.
Phoenix, AZ 85013
(602) 265-3604

Several months ago we tried Two Hippies tacos and dug it. The amount of food for the price was great, and the same is almost much true for the pizzeria they opened up on 7th Ave.  For less than $8 you can get a decent sized pie that is made fresh in about ten minutes.  Given my recent re-conversion to vegetarianism, I went with the white pizza that had only vegetables and cheese while my companion tried something with meat.  Her feelings were as mixed as mine.

This is more like a Chicago-style pizza, rather than a Sicilian –more dough, more cheese.  The dough was a little doughy, but not enough to prevent me from eating it.  Holy Toledo was there a lot of cheese, though.  Who doesn’t love cheese?

The décor and style is in keeping with the other spots, including limited outdoor space consisting of a couple of bar stools.  The gentleman behind the counter was pleasant but a bit spacey.  That seems par for the course for Two Hippies, and maybe even part of the employee training.

The Good: A lot of food delivered quickly and cheaply

The Bad: Order it to go unless you plan to stand and eat over your hand like as if you’re at an awkward break-room party for a coworker’s birthday.

The Ugly: They can’t make room for tables or chairs, but they manage to squeeze an ATM into the tiny reception area?  Cash only!  Really, Two Hippies?  REALLY?  This is America.  We buy M&M’s on credit, for crying out loud!

Every 10 years we redraw the legislative and congressional line, usually poorly.

Watch for two issues next year to be at the forefront: whether we should ask people their immigration status when we count them and what impact the foreclosure crisis will have on where people live. Congressional Quarterly does a good primer on this issue.

The immigration is a non-issue that some on the right will howl about. They will say that we favoring states with high illegal immigration. Its a bit of an issue de jour. I don’t remember this being such a do or die issue in 2002 or 1992.  We’ve always counted everybody, regardless of where they are from. That does not  mean that the illegal immigrants will control our government. At least, if history is to be a lesson.

As for foreclosures, that might be one reason that Arizona will only get one new member of congress, and not two. Projections in 2007 and 2008 when I was working on the issue were that we would get two new congressional seats. Stand back and watch in 2011 as politicians in Maricopa county fight to get that new district laid out to favor their races.

I know it is unpopular to “increase the size of government”, but perhaps we might look at having more than 435 members of Congress for 235 million Americans. Something about better representation when your member of congress does not have to attend to over 500,000 constituents all at once.

Call me crazy.