For the last month or so, I walked you through a 5-part series on the current state of the market. Today, we’re going to take a giant leap up. Welcome to…

The Macro-Macro View

This slide is from the Brooking’s Institute. It’s a very new thing. Very new information.  It’s about migration of people into Phoenix.

In about 2006 we had 400,000/year moving here, but then it dropped. People have been coming from the big red circles to the blue circles because they’re tired of the cold, the overpopulated areas, the promise of something better, lots of reasons. The circles are sized based on the number of people migrating.

The Macro-Micro View

This next graph gives us a good look at the migration percentage rates between 2001 and 2012. The gray line at 0.0 indicates a normal inflow of people migrating in and out of each city. The red lines are people migrating out. Because red lines are a negative number it’s below the 0.0 line. The blue lines are people migrating to each city. These are positive numbers.

In 2011 and 2012 you see people are moving into Phoenix. We’re going back to our normal above average inflow of people. Follow the line back to 2003, you’ll see we had a positive migration rate which peaked in 2004/05. The numbers took a huge nose dive in 2004/2005 because of bad economy and people were leaving Arizona. Now they’re starting to come back. We never went negative, though Orlando did (the dark blue, almost black line).

The macro-macro and macro-micro takeaway is that people are still leaving the east and coming into Phoenix.

Thinking Ahead: Infrastructure

Let’s think about the coming infrastructure. Where is the light rail going? Will the light rail still drive investments? There’s very limited infill planed, so if you’re an investor, you need to follow the transit.

The thick blue lines below are planned extensions of the light rail. The little circles are current light rail stops.

We’ve learned that you can hardly find a house between the 7’s now because of where the light rail is. Those people who really didn’t like the idea of the light rail coming in may still be out there, but look how much it’s helped the economy. Look at what the economic development has done.

The light rail line heading farther west on the I-10, starting at the I-17 should be done by 2023. Does this mean you need to jump on a house right now? No. Will the homes near that coming light rail line be as extremely unavailable as the last time that reduced the homes between the 7’s so significantly? I doubt it.

Look at this where the future light rail line going up 19^th Ave to Dunlap (the line past the red bit), headed to Metrocenter.

You’ll want to keep watch on Metrocenter over the next 10 years. We don’t know exactly which way it’s going to go up the 51, but we do know it will go to the ballpark. We also know that it’s going to follow the 51, though how close right up next to it is uncertain. It’s a great drive. I’d love to see the line go right up the middle of the 51 freeway. We’ll see.

The line might go into into paradise valley mall, right at Cactus rd. There are some really nice houses there. I think we’re going to see some good value go into those houses because of that.

Look back up at the big light rail map, above. Notice that the light rail does not go into Scottsdale.

 

You won’t know about it for 30 years, but Scottsdale is making the same mistake right now that Georgetown made in Washington DC in the early 1970’s.

When the Metro line opened there, Georgetown wanted nothing to do with it. They didn’t want “those people” (whatever that means) around. For that reason, all the development around the Metroline went east. There’s a new convention center, new stadium, tons of other new developments on the opposite of Washington DC, today, the exact opposite direction of Georgetown. Georgetown is dead.

Scottsdale is asking for the same thing. I’m calling it right now. You can quote me on this.

Thinking Ahead: The Phoenix We Want

Ready to make a difference in our future light rail infrastructure and other important urban choices?

Last night (5/15) the Urban Choices Community Conversation: Making Phoenix a World Class City took place with the Phoenix City Council district 4 candidates. If you missed it, tonight, (5/16) the same opportunity for downtown Phoenix will take place with the District 8 candidates at 6pm – 8pm, at Levine Machine (605 E Grant St, Phoenix, AZ 85004)

• Creating Connected Communities (Facilitating Walking, Biking, Rail, and Bus Connectivity)
• City Staff 2.1 (Silo Busting and Moving from Planning to 21st Century Implementation)
• Economic Competitiveness (Economic Resources Stewardship – Development Connected to Existing Infrastructure)
• Economic Diversity (Moving Beyond Boom and Bust)
• Transit Oriented Development (Redefining Urban Vibrancy –New Thinking in a New Economy)

Buy or sell, give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.
I’ll make it happen.

We’ve known it intuitively and anecdotally for a long time, but here is some great news that proves it: home values next to light rail are stronger.

In a recent blog by Michael Melaniphy (President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association (APTA)) he said:  “Average sales prices for residences in close proximity to high-frequency public transit were more stable during the recession”. This is not a guestimate, but backed up by strong data drawn from a nationwide report commissioned by APTA and the American Association of Realtors®.

The five cities upon which the study was based are a representative sample of the types of high-frequency public transit systems throughout the U.S. The five cities were Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Francisco, Chicago, Phoenix and Boston.

“During the last recession, residential property values performed 42 percent better on average if they were located near public transportation with high-frequency service.” ~ APTA and the American Association of Realtors®

Enter Phoenix’s $2.9 million Sustainable Communities grant (2011, from the Department of Housing and Urban Development) for Reinvent PHX —  a way to produce sustainability action plans for the five districts along the existing light rail line and establish a new transit-oriented model for urban development along the city’s light rail corridors.

As the nation continues to assign us with the unofficial title “World’s Least Sustainable City”, we’re still a “Bird on Fire” worth writing books about and paying attention to.  You may recall that in November last year, I wrote about Phoenix leading the Nation in Innovation and Efficiency.

A year ago, January, Native American Connections built a community for our growing, city-dwelling Native American populations in the mixed-use, mixed-income apartments of  the Divine Legacy, just across from the Campbell & Central light rail station.

In my post last September, I mentioned a great story on KJZZ’s Changing America series where the reporter talked about how retirees are moving into downtown areas and urban cores along the Valley Metro light-rail line.

And as The Atlantic noted in a post a couple days ago, it looks like Phoenix’s walkability gamble just might pay off.  Light rail homes gives people quicker access to alternate ways to get around town, access to jobs, and lower transportation costs in walkable areas.

All of this is particularly important if you are thinking to list your home. If you bought before about 2004 or between about 2009-2011, you are probably in a really good position to sell.

In the immortal words of one Hannibal Smith, “I love it when a plan comes together.”

If you want to buy or sell the right property near public transit, please give me a call at 602-456-9388 or email me at ken@getyourphx.com.

[metro image: King Chung Huang]

Two weeks ago, Lyssa Hall, Senior Landscape Architect for Parks Development at Parks and Recreation told me about the Final Report on Greening America’s Capitals: Lower Grand Avenue, Phoenix (PDF).

The report provides short, mid and long term strategies for the redevelopment of Lower Grand Avenue into a vibrant corridor.

Here is a major development: it mentions a possible street car or trolley in the future. That is a HUGE win for the Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) which I wrote about a few weeks ago as being in danger of losing its Phoenix support when a neighboring city received a proposal to take our trollies and add them to their local museum.

The mention of the possible trolley in the Greening on Lower Grand report is not an endorsement by the city, but I believe that the city needs to get behind this economic development project.

I joined the non-profit Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) board shortly after it was first proposed and we are working to get recognition of what a great return on investment this represents. If funded, it would mean that you could ride the modern light rail in from the burbs, jump on the old Trolley and visit all the galleries and sites that will inevitably populate Grand Ave.

But, it is less about transportation than it is about what happens when you have a feature like this in an area like Grand. If you look at the buildings along Grand, most of them were built when Grand was THE shopping street in Phoenix. They are close to the road, the sidewalks are wide. Basically, the architectural environment is in place for new businesses to spring up. Behind those buildings are hundreds of old bungalows that have been largely neglected. A project like this will encourage historic renovation with the fervor that we saw around the light rail line recently.

That represents more dollars in the local economy, new businesses and higher value homes. All from a 1.5 mile trolley line.

And, who knows? That short trolley line could eventually make its way all the way around downtown. This is just a start.

Now, that’s economic development.

Now, as for the process:

It is the Parks and Recreation Department’s mission to be the best Parks Development Division in the nation. To this end, public meetings “community design workshops” were held over three days in Feb and March, put on by the Grand Avenue Merchant Association (GAMA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The result of those meetings was finalized on September 10 by the Environmental Protection Agency and can be found in this Final Report:

The Streets Transportation Department will be presenting the findings from the workshop and report at the Parks, Arts, Families and Seniors Subcommittee on Oct 9th at 10am in Phoenix City Hall, assemble room A. If you are unable to attend the subcommittee meeting, they will be televised and archived for viewing.  

The estimated cost to build the trolley infrastructure, outfit a new museum on grand and operate the system: $10 million. I’ve heard transportation planners say $50. I think that is high for 150 year old technology.

Regardless, believe that the resulting new home sales, infill development and business starts along grand will be worth ten times that. Please contact your city councilmen and let them know that you support the Grand Avenue Rail Project.

You may have seen my previous stories about the effort to put historic trollies on Grand Avenue as an economic development project. This low-cost project would help encourage new businesses along Grand Ave between Van Buren and Roosevelt –a trend that is already under way, but which could quicken and bring new income to Phoenix.

Since writing these stories, I joined the Grand Avenue Rail Project (GARP) board and we are working to get recognition of the great return on investment this represents.

It came to my attention this last week that the folks at the Trolley Museum, where they house the historic trollies which we hope to use on Grand Ave., have received a proposal from a neighboring city to take our trollies and add them to their local museum.

From what I am hearing, the Phoenix Trolley Museum folks, not getting a particularly warm feeling from City of Phoenix, are seriously considering taking this other museum up on their offer. From what I hear, some in the City really want to take back the trolley museum building at Margaret T. Hance Park so they can use it for other things. They have gone so far as to encourage the Trolly Museum to move, but they have not provided a viable place for them to go.

The sad part is that there is a very viable option, which the Museum folks and GARP founder Robert Graham have been advocating for: put the trolly museum on Grand Ave., along with an accompanying trolly line that will encourage new business on Grand.

Thus their frustration.

Here is my concern: if the Trolley Museum moves to some other city, it will be even more difficult to see the GARP idea through and it will represent yet another Phoenix stab at historic preservation. Even sadder is the fact that the city does not need to lay out much money to make this happen. They just need to partner on proposals to the federal government for transportation dollars, which can be used for this purpose.

The estimated cost to build the infrastructure, outfit a new museum on grand and operate the system: $10 million. I believe that the resulting new home sales, infill development and business starts along grand will be worth ten times that.

Please contact your city councilmen and let them know that you support the Grand Avenue Rail Project.

Last month I wrote about the possibilities of commuter and passenger rail in Phoenix and Arizona. While deciding which tracks to use for these trains would be complicated, it was really the up-front costs that keep Arizona from moving toward the future in this regard.

But one man is trying his best to move the train down the track on a smaller scale –one which could still help encourage the growth of more expansive rail use in Phoenix.

Robert Graham wants a trolley on Lower Grand Avenue and he isn’t waiting for a government agency to get around to it. He has been quietly making the rounds and building alliances around a proposal for a short-run trolley car line that would cost in the low millions –cheaper than most new roads with greater economic impact.

He calls it “GARP”, the Grand Avenue Rail Project.

His local focus and realistic vision makes me think that we just might be able to pull it off in the near future.

Here is the skinny:

Graham (not the guy in the picture, above) is the the Principal Architect at the Motley Design Group, a design firm that has done a number of historic preservation projects around Arizona and Phoenix.

Graham, knowing that there used to be rail on Grand Avenue decades ago, looked out on the old road from his desk at his firm and asked “why not now?”

He saw the potential for a short-run trolley that serves as transportation, a local attraction and a way to support all of the businesses along “Lower” Grand Ave., from Van Buren to Roosevelt.

If you’ve ever been on Grand, you know that most of the old buildings there are perfect for a future business and shopping district –no master planning necessary. The buildings are close to the street, with street parking and lots of broad, traditional facades.

Graham was inspired by the Old Pueblo Trolley that runs on 4th Avenue in Tucson, and which helped revitalize that street. And in his position as an architect working in Phoenix for decades, he could see how all of the pieces could fit together.

Piece #1: The Phoenix Street Railway Museum. A small group of rebels against the growing freeway culture bought one of the last remaining bodies of an original Phoenix streetcar in 1975. Since that time, working out of a streetcar “barn” at the Ellis-Shackelford house in downtown Phoenix, they have restored one car to working order and are working on a second. In other words, we have the vehicle.

Piece #2: Storage and right-of way. Graham points to acres of unused space under the I-10 freeway at 15th Avenue and Grand that could be used as storage, maintenance and a kind of small switch yard for one or two cars. See the map, below.

Piece #3: Business Support. The fledgling Grand Avenue Merchant’s Association (GAMA) fully supports the idea of a street car line along Grand Ave., and one property owner has suggested lending space for a streetcar museum. The problem: “fledgling” means they have no money to do it themselves.

Piece #4: Institutional Support. Graham is looking for support from the city to consider plans to lay track along the middle lane of Grand Ave. This track, unlike the new light rail track, is relatively cheap to install. There are no expensive curbs and extra signals. While Graham suspects that the streets and transportation planners at the City might worry about reducing the car carrying capacity of Grand Ave., he looks forward to conversations about how to make it work.

He sees the work in four potential phases, starting with moving the train cars to a new storage yard under I-10, along with a small trolley museum (about $500,000).  Phase 2 and 3 lays tracks from the I-10 south to Van Buren (another million dollars). A potential Phase 4 could then connect Grand Ave. to the light rail station at 1st Ave and Van Buren –the most complicated and costly phase.

However, this last phase would mean that you could ride the modern light rail in from the burbs, jump on the old Trolley and visit all the galleries and sites that will inevitably populate Grand Ave. Now, that’s economic development.

Photos Courtesy of Motley Design Group

While Graham admits that his cost estimate are very preliminary and “pulled out of the air,” he is hopeful about getting start-up funds from what are called T-21 Transportation Grants, through ADOT.

According to Graham, the grants are extremely generous, needing only a 5% match to get funding. That’s $25,000 to get a $500,000 grant.

Grant is looking for help with his idea. While he is still making the rounds to get critical political and bureaucratic support, he also needs volunteer grant writers, fund raisers and advocates. If you are interested in joining in the cause, contact Grant at trolley@motleydesigngroup.com.

I’ve lived in several cities with this kind of trolley system in place and I think Graham’s vision is perfect for the times. While it will be tough to get the kind of money to get started, this is the kind of “low dollar” project, that if started soon, could be in place in time for the next big boom in downtown redevelopment.

It could secure Grand Avenue’s identity as a historically significant, locally-owned alternative to the mega-mall.

In polite cocktail party chatter, after people ask why we don’t have more solar in Arizona, they often bemoan the fact that why we don’t have a high speed rail line between Phoenix or Tucson, etc.

After all, there are only so many times you can get pinned between two 18-wheelers and a 20-year old in a Hummer with spinney wheels on I-10 before you start to wonder if there is isn’t better way.

The only answer I got when I asked was that there was not sufficient capacity on the rail line next to I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson.

The issue came front and center when Amy and I were in New Mexico in October, riding that state’s spankin’ new Rail Runner between Albuquerque and Santa Fe.

I gotta say, I was a little embarrassed that New Mexico was kicking our collective petooty in the high speed rail department. This thing was pretty swanky, in all it’s double-decker, panoramic windowed glory. Kinda like pimp my ride meets the Santa Fe Super Chief.

Well, it just so happens that one of my real estate clients helped plan and install the high speed rail servicing Washington, DC. So, he pointed me to people who could get me some answers as to why we don’t have this basic necessity  and what it would take to get it.

He pointed me first to Chris Blewett, the project manager behind New Mexico’s Rail Runner. This soft-spoken public servant seemed almost underwhelmed by his own accomplishments. At a total cost of $400 million (via state bond), they had phase one of the rail line completed in about 2 years, from conception to operation. That was 45 miles of upgraded track, plus trains. Phase 2, the next 100 miles, was completed about 2 years later.

In government time, that’s like doing the 100 meter dash in 5 seconds.

So certainly, you’d think, it can’t be that bad. Absent our budget morass, we could pull that off, right? Heck, Civic Plaza cost over $500 million.

Well, the reasons it worked so easily was that there was under-used Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) line between the two cities. All the state had to do was kinda spruce it up with new ties and some new track, according to Blewett.

What made the rail line necessary, however, was not so much the traffic but the Native American communities that dot the land on either side of the existing I-25. The freeway simply can’t grow outward any further without encroaching on tribal land. This problem won’t be apparent tomorrow, but it would bottleneck the entire state in the next decade if alternatives were not created.

The rail line, on the other hand, offered an actual solution and that is where we need to learn to make better arguments.

According to Blewett, when answering the “why not here” question, you have to look more broadly. You have to answer the question: what can commuter rail help with beyond the old standard “traffic and air quality” issues?

It creates an alternative and markets like alternatives. It allows you to build affordable housing closer to work. Money put in to rail goes further per mile than money put in to widening freeways.

If it were all that simple, then we would have it in Arizona, right?

That is when I turned to Mark Pearsall, a rail transit planner with the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG). The first thing he did was clarify for me that we are really talking about two different things: commuter rail and passenger rail.

1) The commuter rail is in the metro area, it travels long distances (say from Wickenberg to Gilbert), but it makes frequent stops. It is an elevated train, so it is not light rail. But it is not a connector for major metro areas. This needs rail lines capable of speeds up to 79 miles per hour.

There are several options for commuter rail in Phoenix: BNSF owns track from Wickenberg, down Grand Ave. to Central Phoenix. A commuter could get from Surprise to downtown Phoenix is 30 minutes. (You think the wait is long at Matt’s Big Breakfast now? Just wait.)

In order to make that happen, we would have to lay parallel track on the Grand Ave. corridor, do some signal upgrades and build a few bridges. Pearsall estimates this would average 5,000 riders per day.

There is also a Union Pacific track that could connect Buckeye to Phoenix. They would actually have to lay more main-line track in that case. Finally, there is a southeast line that could connect Phoenix, Tempe, Gilbert and Queen Creek.

According to Pearsall, this entire network would move 17,000 riders per day.

This is where money is not the only problem. Have a look at the map above. In order to see all of those connections, you would have to find a way to connect a number of those track lines that are not already connected. The map makes it look easy, but it is a spaghetti junction of rules, ownership and rights of way.

Further, you’d need to get agreement from BNSF about dedicating valuable track space and time to passenger rail. While not using all of the track space now, BNSF fears that they might in the near future.

MAG is going to come out with the results of a study in the spring, the most serious in 30 years, with conclusions about which of these lines are the most feasible. Click on the photo, above to download a copy of a recent system analysis. You will be able to get the major study at the same website in the spring.

This is where it comes down to money again. The next time the existing transportation sales tax is up for renewal is 2026, and I don’t see the voters going for another tax on top of our existing one any time soon.

So, no! No twain for Chwistmas until 2026, little Johnny!

2) Passenger rail is what we think of when we talk about Phoenix to Tucson or L.A. to Phoenix.

The problems of using existing track and laying new main lines is the same as with commuter rail, but the costs for completing the projects are much higher. However, whereas you can share rail corridors between commuter and freight rail in many cases in Maricopa County, Union Pacific tells us that we would have to build our own corridor for passenger rail between Tucson and Phoenix.

That’s big money, folks.

This is where Pearsall has hope for an ADOT study, under way now. That study will identify the top 8 corridors of possible service between Phoenix and Tucson in which you could average 70 to 100 mph. This “alternatives analysis” is meant to start the discussion of getting federal dollars to lay the track.

You know, “baby steps.”

This is also where MAG and ADOT will be coordinating efforts. They will want to locate commuter rail line next to passenger rail line in some cases to maximize efficiency and make a seamless system.

Pearsall is confident that all of these details could and would be worked out once there is money in the pot. Railroads would change their tune and track could be laid.

Just drop $2billion in the tip jar on the way out, thanks.

But, you could envision it one day. Just close your eyes and let’s imagine together: hiking in the mountains around Wickenberg, stopping off for lunch in downtown Phoenix and having a nice evening out in Tucson, without ever setting foot on a gas pedal.

Or, more seriously, you could actually save money over building new, congested freeways. (gasp!)

However you want to look at it, I think it is a goal we should have.

Postscript: It looks like the AZ Republic was doing a story on this issue as I was writing this. So, learn more here.

Friday night was Night Rail, a last-minute, all social network-driven, flash mob-style effort to show support for later light rail hours.

See the Thursday post for all of the great organizers of this event.

By Midnight, we had almost 60 people standing at the Roosevelt and Central Metro station, with more on the way.

My close friends and I started at Monti’s in Tempe. Nick Bastain of Rail Life was there, along with about 20 others. Michael Monti of Monti’s was with us and laid out the long and sometimes sordid history of Monti’s. (Did you know it used to be a brothel?)

We worked our way back to Central. Unfortunately, Portland’s was not open by the time we got there. I think they would have had some good business, had they been open. After our rally, we all dispersed, ending up at the Roosevelt, Carly’s and other places in-between.

In the future, we will communicate more with businesses along the light rail to encourage them to get involved. In the end, this was a test. It was only a test. We now know that we have the ability to get the word out about Night Rail. Our next phase will be to grow the event through business participation, live music and the help of people like you!

If you have not heard already, a bunch of groups downtown, including Get Your PHX, are collaborating in support of the new light rail hours. We are encouraging y’all to come out on Friday night the 31st.

Start anywhere and go anywhere, but stop by the Roosevelt and Central stop at midnight to show your support for late rail hours. We need to raise awareness that the city made a very controversial decision to run the rail later and we need to support that.

My understanding is that the press will be there.

Here are the super-fantastic organizations that are supporting the effort: