…and, no, we are not talking about taking peyote.  Not that kind of vision conference.

My friends at the Downtown Voices Coalition are hosting a 5-year retrospective and visioning conference on January 15th and 16th. These guys have done an incredible job of advocating for what it should look like in CenPho in the near future, and advocating for inclusiveness in the city’s planning process.

If you’ve ever thought about getting involved in the future of CenPho, this is a great group to get involved with.

According to the Phoenix Business Journal, the Plaza Cos. has sold Phoenix Biomedical Plaza to the University of Arizona Foundation for $9.85 million. Evidently, they sold it at a loss, which is great for the UofA medical campus’ future growth.

This just points more and more to what I’ve been saying: downtown Phoenix will have over 20,000 students –as ASU predicts– in the next 5 years and the Garfield neighborhood is going to be the coolest little urban neighborhood this side of Berkley.

Just in case you geek out on fair housing law as it applies to you. If you are one of the fine folks that are now proud new landlords because you picked up a rental property this year, this seminar applies to you, too.

Here is another redistricting and census primer.

We seem to go through this every ten years, too. Folks close to government and voting rights get out and want to encourage more participation in the census count, as it results in federal dollars and more congressional representation. Folks who don’t trust government do what they can to suppress the count and somebody else gets money that would have otherwise gone to Arizona.

However, this article shows a great example of how the census runs right up against the housing market in Arizona (and why we need a more diversified economic base).

For the last several years, those of us close to the issue have expected that Arizona would get 2 more congressional seats after the 2010 census. It looks like we will only get one.

According to the article linked above, we are about 60,000 residents shy of getting that second congressional district. According to rough estimates based on housing starts and home purchases, Phoenix has not grown in three years.

So, here is how it lays out: a few bankers get in to the risky game of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps, which grow exponentially; too many people buy houses that are too big for them; too many mortgage brokers sell loans to people without the standing to incur that debt; the entire thing falls apart; Arizona gets hit the worst because for years the home builders have too much power in our state government and they keep our economy tied to only one major industry; home sales plummet; people stop coming and, as a result we don’t get another member of congress.

Mind boggling, isn’t it?!

NEWS
I’m hearing from my mortgage broker friends that there is a very good possibility that rates will increase in March 2010.

WHY IT IS HAPPENING?
With the Fed buying fewer Mortgage Bonds and wrapping the program up entirely at the end of March, any improvement in rates may be modest at best.

In fact, last week the Fed purchased just $9.3B in Mortgage Backed Securities.  This is down sharply from their recent purchases averaging around $15B, and down from highs of $25 to $30B over the Summer.  Their total purchases are now $1.11 Trillion out of the $1.25T allotted for the program.

This leaves $140B remaining in purchases over the next 12 weeks before the program ends.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
So, if we have you on a track to get in to a home this year, remember that increased interest rates are more costly than increases in home prices.

If interest rates go from 5% to 6%, that is an increase of $63 per month on a $100,000 home.

Please contact me if you’d like more information. If you have been working on your credit score, or otherwise been getting things lined up for a purchase this year, we may want to take this development in to account and make a plan for you.

News: Circles Discs and Tapes in downtown is closing its doors. Please stay tuned as we work to find new inhabitants of the building who will respect the history of the corner.

This is a serious blow to downtown, but I am confident that we can pull together and find an appropriate business to occupy this space and contribute to CenPho.

Some people were doubting me when I said that there is actually a live auction down at the county courthouse when a house goes to foreclosure. Well I was there last week and took a quick photo of the auction, in process. Sad, yet interesting!

Unless you have a large chipper-shredder in your back yard to turn your Christmas tree in to a fine mulch (Yes, that’s my dream. What?), you need to find a place for that conical fire hazard.

The City of Phoenix has a whole list of places for you to do that. But this only went through the 3rd. So, give them a call and they will have answers about where to take them.

It is better to compost them than burn them, in any case. I don’t think we are out of the woods in regards to no-burn days…

Setting aside dire circumstances where you can’t purchase a property, if you have a credit score in the 600s, you can probably purchase a home in today’s market. If you are close to that, there are things you can do to get in the right position.

But, I like to point out now and again the benefits of buying a property over renting. This might be because I waited far too long to purchase a property for myself. I look in awe of clients of mine who are buying in their early 20s. I don’t think they even know what a good thing they are doing for their futures, if they stay conservative about their finances and keep those houses for the long term.

Anyway, I love the calculator at the Money-zine website that helps you calculate what you save by buying a home –not even taking in to account the historically low prices.

Have a look and let me know if you have any questions about this calculator.

Here’s a good article about the role that home appraisers had in the housing bubble.

The problem I’m having as an agent is that the appraisals are coming in much lower the the price the buyers and sellters agreed to, and much lower than the comps that I find in the area.

We are not allowed to communicate with the appraisers, which is a good thing. We should not be able to so that we can have an impartial perspective and eliminate corruptions in the market.

However, right now, appraisers seem to be viewing the market as it was 6 months ago, not they way things are moving up and moving quickly right now.

In the last three months, I negotiated three closings in which the appraisals came in at least 12% lower than the agreed price. Luckily, I got the sellers to reduce their prices after much effort and saved my clients money.