This from the Historic Neighborhoods Coalition…

Will Phoenix Abandon Its Historic Neighborhoods?

Sources at City Hall indicate that the movement progresses to make the Historic Preservation Department a part of a larger department.  An appropriate department combination would be Historic Preservation with Community and Economic Development. As a nationally recognized asset to Phoenix, our historic neighborhoods have proven their economic value with the Home Tours and the Historic Neighborhoods Map utilized by many in the community.

While the Historic Preservation Office (HPO) may no longer be able to be an independent Department, under no circumstances should it be combined with the new DSD/Planning.  An attorney has said that his zoning attorney colleagues are basically “licking their chops” over this proposed combination.

Without a strong commitment to preservation on the part of the City Manager’s office and the Mayor and Council, the stability of the historic neighborhoods and the economic progress we have generated in the last decade will be lost.

Historic Preservation is good business, a proven Community and Economic Development driver, and should be recognized as such in any reorganization.

While there is still time, we are asking every neighbor to please send the above message by email or calling the following:

City Manager David Cavazos    david.cavazos@phoenix.gov 602-262-7958

Deputy Manager David Krietor  david.krietor@phoenix.gov 602-262-7957  or

His direct line for messages     602-262-6853

Executive Assistant to the City Manager  Lisa Takata   lisa.takata@phoenix.gov

602-262-6941

Mayor Phil Gordon                         mayor.gordon@phoenix.gov 602-262-7111

Vice Mayor Michael Nowakowski  council.district.7@phoenix.gov 602-262-7492

Councilwoman Thelda Williams    council.district.1@phoenix.gov 602-262-7444

Councilwoman Peggy Neely         council.district.2@phoenix.gov 602-262-7445

Councilman Bill Gates         council.district3@phoenix.gov 602-262-7441

Councilman Tom Simplot         council.district.4@phoenix.gov 602-262-7447

Councilman Claude Mattox           council.district.5@phoenix.gov 602-262-7446

Councilman Sal DiCiccio         council.district.6@phoenix.gov 602-262-7491

Councilman Michael Johnson       council.district.8@phoenix.gov 602-262-7493

Immediate action is necessary to protect our historic neighborhoods.

OK. I don’t have a degree in economics. I’m just a lowly real estate agent. But these guys over at ASU are only now saying that home prices are going up and I think they’ve spent a little too much time away from the light of day!

“The March figures also show the first monthly increase in the median price of non-foreclosure homes since the end of 2007,” said ASU Professor Karl Guntermann, who is the Fred E. Taylor Professor of Real Estate. “This may signal the start of price stability throughout much of the housing market.” (4/28; Phoenix Business Journal)

This is great news, but I still maintain that prices have been going up, albeit slightly, over the past year.

Here is the data, directly from the Multi Listing Service:

I think it might be that the folks at ASU are reporting prices for active listings, not what that actual sales prices were. Look above and you will see that Active Listings $/SF (price per square foot) shows $179.63 on this day in 2009, but $148.18 yesterday. Looks like things are going down.

But, wait! All that this is telling us is that people are listing them for lower now, not that they are selling lower.  Probably because they are more realistic about prices when they list them.

Look at Monthly Sales $/SF. In April of last year they were $82.49 and now they are sold at $90.18. That is down from last month slightly, but up from 2009.

Even the Average Price – Monthly Sales is up.

I think these guys at ASU are running these numbers through some complicated and possibly unnecessary equation just to come to these conclusions.

I still maintain that they are dead wrong.

At least they might be starting to come around. As I said yesterday, watch for folks who have been hesitating to get back in the market in May.

I am happy to help you with any further analysis, listings or home searches. Please contact me at realestate@kenclarkforaz.com

As you might guess, March was an insane month.

Everybody was jumping for that tax credit. There were almost 9,000 sales of homes & condos in the Phoenix metro area in March, which was the 2nd highest March sales month ever.

The median sales price in March was higher than March 2009, making it the first year-over-year increase since July 2006.

Let me say that again for all y’all (CNN!) who think price prices are still falling. That is higher than March 2009.

This is raw data from the multi-listing service. This is reported as it happens. When I close on a house, the system shows that close. Nobody can tamper with it. No third party interpretation. (CNN!)

As of April 20, there are 22,684 properties currently under contract, an all-time high.

Active listings in MLS are 34,064, down 24% since April 2009.

Want to see how things are going in your neighborhood? Check out this link to see this new feature I have. It is a free market trends analysis. After clicking on the image, you can scroll down to find your zip code and then it will show you active listings, sales per month, price per square foot, & foreclosure data for the past year.

Here is what I predict will happen in May: People will start getting back to normal buying patterns.

Source: Businessweek

We will spend the first three weeks of May waiting for this mythical “shadow inventory” to arrive, and it won’t.* Once we see that prices are not taking a downward spiral, people will start doing what they usually do. They will move if they need to move. They will buy a house if they need to buy.

There will be two types of buyers that come on the market first. 1) Those who have jobs but did not buy previously because they were afraid that they were about to lose their jobs. Now that economic indicators are turning up, they will feel more secure in their jobs and they will go ahead and buy. 2) Those who recognize that prices actually have been going up over the last year and that this is the best time to grab a new home or an upgrade before interest rates go up.

I’m happy to help you with your buying and selling decisions. Please give me a call at 602-456-9388 for more information.

*As you may recall from my previous posts, I don’t see this happening. There are many houses that are foreclosed or awaiting to foreclose, but the banks will not depress prices by throwing lots of inventory on the market all at once.

**Thanks, Leif Swanson (www.leifswanson.com) for contribution of market data.

I remember standing in Melbourne, Australia a few years ago. This city has everything: live music, art, theater, gardens, food, etc. I was thinking about whether I should move there. Luckily I did not.

However, I got a strange uneasy feeling about the place. I could not put my finger on it until much later. I realized that I could never live there because it is finished. Somebody else, long ago, defined that city. There is very little to add.

This is why I love Phoenix and Arizona. Despite many of the challenges we face, this is our place to define and our identity to create. It is all ours if we want it.

In that spirit, I was particularly interested in the work of writer Joey Robert Parks and others with their 26 Blocks project. They describe it the best:

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN… if 26 of the best writers in Phoenix were paired with 26 of the best photographers in Phoenix?

AND WHAT IF… you asked them to create their work within certain boundaries (writers: 500 words or less, any genre; Photographers: up to four pictures in one image, any style) and to capture the past, present or future of 26 randomly selected downtown Phoenix city blocks?

There actually is a great deal of interesting history in Phoenix and so many stories to tell. Could there be some future “Phoenix sound”, like there was a Seattle sound? Will there be writers and artists who speak uniquely of Phoenix?

I think so.

Look for  26 Blocks to be a future feature of a Get Your PHX event, as they roll out their work over the course of this year.

This New York Times article is a very interesting demonstration of determining whether you should rent or buy.

This is for those of you who want to geek out on numbers a little this morning.

This is a great way to look at the situation without getting all hung up on predictions about where the market will go next. Because, as I’ve spoken about many times, you can never guess exactly when the market will be at its lowest point until that point is gone. But, if the conditions are right for you now, that is the best measure.

Basically, you take the price of the home for sale and divide it by the annual rent of a comparable rental home. If the resulting number is higher than 20, then continue renting. If it is below 20, then you are better off buying. Got it?

So, I want to apply this demonstration to a case here in Phoenix. Let’s take, for instance, 2214 N 12th Street, which is my listing.

This beautiful historic property is listing for $189,000. It is a 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,600 square foot home in a popular neighborhood. Let’s say you buy it with 10% down at 5.5% interest and a 30-year loan. You are looking at about $960, principle and interest. Add $115 per month for taxes and $70 per month for mortgage insurance and $40 per month for home owners insurance (all rough estimates). This home costs about $1,185 per month.

So, what should we compare it to? I did a search of 4br/2ba homes, minimum 1,400 square feet that are also in popular neighborhoods in CenPho. I found no 4 bedroom homes. So, I found eight 3 bedroom homes in the area. The cheapest at $1,050 per month and the highest at $2,995.

Just so you know I’m not cherry picking an example that best makes the case for buying, let’s take the cheapest one, at 1805 E. Willetta, as a case in point. I’ve posted all of the homes in this study here for your reference.

$1,050 x 12 months equals $12,600 annual rent. (You could keep much of that money by owning –just had to say it.) Divide that in to the price for the home above and you get a factor of 15. So, even in this case it is better to buy.

On the high end, let’s take 902 W. Verde as an example. That one is renting for $2,750 per month. So, that is $33,000 per year going to a landlord. That results in a Rent Ratio of 5.7.

I think this is pretty accurate analysis, especially as you consider that these are all 3 bedroom homes, and any 4 bedroom homes would certainly cost more to rent.

So, what have we learned, besides how fun numbers are?

We’ve learned that you can divorce yourself from the daily back and forth speculation about where the market is going so that you can make a decision that is good for you.

Will the market go lower? I don’t know. I doubt it. Will it go higher? Probably, yes. How quickly, we don’t know. But we know that prices have been going up in more popular neighborhoods in CenPho.

But I’ll say it again: you can never find the lowest point until it is gone. If you buy when the market is generally low and sell when the market is generally high, you are in good shape. This ain’t the stock market, after all!

If you would like to get out there and explore the market, or if you have specific questions, please give me a call at 602-456-9388.

I just confirmed that this Haver Home is now starting renovations and will be on the market for under $160,000. I do not represent this seller.

But, I am happy to represent you if you’d like to look at it. Please give me a call or email at realestate@kenclarkforaz.com if you want to know more.

The original Haver home, pictured here, is ready to be renovated. The owner/renovator intends to sell the home after renovation. He says that he is willing to work with the buyer to do at least some renovations to order!

This is a Haver Home, built by Fred E Woodworth. I’ve been in this home and it is perfectly preserved. Somebody took great care of this property for years!

This is a huge opportunity to grab a mid-century modern Haver home in a neighborhood that is bound together by their love of these homes.

All of this and the agreement could be made in time for the $8,000 tax credit!

This kind of thing simply does not happen that often!

This MSNBC article is a perfect example of how waiting for some mythological, dramatic drop in prices might actually price you out of the market because interest rates go up.

In just a few weeks interest rates for new homes have gone from 5.0% to 5.3%. See the article for the reasons why.

The rule of thumb is that every 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates reduces a buyer’s purchasing power by about 10 percent. So, accordingly, if you’ve been waiting, your buying power has eroded by 3% in the last three weeks.

Now, interest rates are still historically low. The best I got on my house in 2001 was somewhere around 7%, as I recall. In 1981, they were over 15%. Yeah, really.

But if you are on the fence, now is the time to get off the fence. You have three weeks to get an offer accepted on a house if you want both historically low interest rates and the $8,000 tax credit.

This news just in from John Hall and Associates:

Initial numbers are in for March.

Number of Closed Escrows for March is 8846, that’s a 16% increase over March 2009 and a 34% increase over February 2010.

2010’s YTD Closed figures show a 19% increase over 2009’s 1st Quarter numbers.

REO sales numbers are continuing to decline as a percentage of sales-39% of Closed; 34% of Pending; and 15% of Active listings.

Short Sales on the other hand are increasing with 21% of Closed; 30% of Pending (or 3930); another 6585 in AWC status (89%); and 27% of Active listings.

What does this mean? It means that all of the dire predictions keep turning out to be false. The market is moving and people are picking up incredible deals before the tax credit goes away.

You have 25 days and counting to get an offer accepted on a property if you want to get the tax credit.

Please let me know if I can help you, or if you know of friends and neighbors who are thinking of buying or selling.

Remember, a rush for the tax credit helps sellers as well as buyers.

Really. It’s going away. The $8,000 first time home buyer and the $6,500 repeat home tax credits will not longer be available after the end of April. So, set your clocks!

By “Tax Credit Two-Step”, I mean that you must have an accepted contract by April 30th, but you can close as late as June 30th.

If you want an accepted contract by April 30th, you need to start looking right away!! Prices are still historically low, but many people are out in force looking to cash in on this tax credit.

If you want to know more, have a look at this CNN article. As is par for the course for CNN on the real estate news, they are overly pessimistic, talking about huge price drops in Miami, for instance. (They’ve been projecting dire forecasts for a year now, which have not come true.)

But this article is useful in talking about how the tax credit will not be extended. Even the credit’s biggest proponent, Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., says he will not support the extension.

So, if you are thinking about it, now is the time to make it happen. Let’s dance! Contact me at realestate@kenclarkforaz.com

The Arizona Republic and other news outlets vacillate between terror and hope.

At one moment they are telling us that the real estate market is about to enter a tailspin not seen since the History Channel did a major retrospective of WWII airplane dog fights.

In the next moment they are telling us that the fragrant flowers of prosperity and recovery are about to pop out of the ground around our feet.

Thanks, guys. Now, here is the data.

This table is from the Cromford Report. If you’ve been following for a while, you know that I talk about this information source quite a bit. The Cromford Report takes data directly from the Multi-Listing Service, which is the most accurate report of sales in Arizona.

This data is for Maricopa County. Look at the gauges for “Annual Appreciation” and “National Trend”.

You can see that we are in the green zone. This means that we have appreciated in prices 7.7% over the same month last year. It also means that March is doing 3.9% better than the entire year. Now, the second gauge does not say much, as it is only March. But these are positive signs.

The Monthly Average is showing that homes are selling for more on a square foot basis than they were last year. Annual Average is a measure of sales prices, averaged at any moment over the last twelve months. These have seemed to bottom out.

Now, I don’t want the press to only print rosy stories in some attempt to talk our way to recovery. But here are some things they are doing wrong:

1) They report sales trends that are at least 3 months old. So right now they are talking about Christmas and January sales trends. Those months tend to be slower.

2) They are using national data and applying it to Arizona. That is like saying that Arizona’s average summer temperature is 75 degrees because that is what it is nationally.

3) They keep reporting that we won’t recover until 2014, which is a minority view.

4) They keep talking about a glut of homes coming on the market, which has not happened the last three times they reported on it and shows little understanding of how banks like to slowly let homes on to the market to avoid price drops.

5) They ignore that certain parts of the city, specifically Central Phoenix, are doing better than the suburbs and people are moving in to town, thus driving the market!

Here are the conclusions I get from the data:

1) You can never perfectly guess the lowest or highest point of the market. But if you buy generally in the low point and sell generally in the high point, then you are following Warren Buffet’s model (be greedy when the market is bad and miserly when the market is good).

2) I sold my first house at 2.5 times what I bought it for because I sold when I first started hearing news on the radio of price drops. Well, we are getting news of price increases now, so my estimate is that now is the time to buy.

3) If you are buying for yourself, then you don’t need to worry too much about price fluctuations. This is not day trading. Buy it low and hold it for at least 5 years. You will be fine.

4) The market may not recover tomorrow. It will probably not fall lower. But if you are buying now and holding you are in a great position.

Please feel free to contact me for more information and to have a look at the market.